NOMINATIONS AND
CAMPAIGNS
Presidential vs Congressional
Campaigns
• More voters
• More competitive
• Less incumbent
advantage
• Lower turnout in
midterm elections
• Take more credit for
individual projects
• Able to distance
themselves from DC
• Franking privileges
• Coattail effect has
declined
RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT
Getting Mentioned
•
•
•
•
Off the record to reporters
Make speeches
Fame
Associated with major piece of
legislation
• Governor
Money
• Individuals
• Political Action Committees
Organization
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fund raisers
Lawyers
Accountants
Pollsters
Volunteers
Position papers
Competing for Delegates
• Caucus:
• Neighborhoodcounty—congressional
districtstate convention—national
convention
• Primary
• McGovern-Fraser Commission
• Superdelegates
• Frontloading
Evaluation of Primary and
Caucus
• Disproportionate attention to early caucuses
and primaries (Iowa and New Hampshire)
• Difficult to find time to run
• Money
• Low participation:
5% of registered voters in caucuses (except
Iowa) and 20 in primary
Too much power to media
Strategy and Themes
•
•
•
•
Tone: Positive or negative
Theme: trust, change, experience
Timing: heavy or light campaigning
Targets: Which voters will change their
minds?
Primaries and General
Election
• Extreme in primary
• Center in general
• Clothespin Vote: lesser of two evils
Campaign Issues
• Position Issues:
 Two opposing views
 Social Security, abortion, death penalty
 Can lead to party realignment
• Valence Issues:
 Universal issues
 Strong economy
 Low crime
 Patriotism
Federal Election Campaign Act
(1974)
1. Federal Election
Commission
• Oversee elections to ensure they are
complying with rules
2. Presidential Election
Campaign Fund
• $3 voluntary check off box on income
tax (11% of taxpayers)
3. Partial Public Financing for
Presidential Primaries
• Presidential candidates who raise $5,000 on
their own in at least 20 states can get
individual contributions of up to $250
matched by the government (matching
funds) If they accept federal support, they
agree to limit campaign expenditures
• Bush and Kerry declined matching funds
• Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote): part
of costs paid by the federal government
4. General Election
• Public financing for major party candidates
in general election
• Major party candidates receive fixed
amount of money ($75m in 2004)
• Kerry and Bush accepted this money
5. Full Disclosure
• File with FEC
• List contributors
• Detail how money was spent
6. Limited Contributions
• Individual contributions to presidential and
congressional candidates: $2,000 each (as
of 2004) and indexed to inflation ($2,300 in
the 2008 presidential election.
• Originally $1,000 but changed by McCainFeingold Act
Campaign Finance Rules (1974)
• PACs:
• One PAC per corporation, union, or
association
• Register 6 months in advance
• At least 50 contributors
• Give to at least five candidates
• No more than $5,000 per candidate per
election
• No more than $15,000 per year to national
party
Loopholes
• Soft money:
Funds NOT for specific candidates
Get-out-the-vote
Voter registration campaigns
• Bundling: combining contributions to be
given at once (makes more of an
impact)
Effect of Reforms
• Growth of PACs (4,217 in 2006):
contributed $288.6 m in 2004 House and
Senate elections
• Party power has weakened
• Rich candidates can avoid rules
• Favors ideological candidates
• Favors incumbents: they are more well
known, so they can get the individual
contribution
• Must enter race early because of the need
to raise money
Bipartisan Finance Reform Act
of 2002 (McCain-Feingold Act)
• Banned soft money; national parties can
only receive hard money (individual
contributions or PAC contributions)
• Limit on individual contributions raised
from $1,000 to $2,000 per candidate per
election (indexed to inflation)
Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002
• Independent expenditures by corporations,
labor unions, trade associations and (under
certain circumstances) nonprofits are sharply
restricted:
• Barred groups from running issue ads within 60
days of a general election (or 30 days before a
primary) if they refer to a federal candidate and
are not funded through a PAC (i.e., regulated
funds)
Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of
2002
• 527 Groups are not subject to
contribution restrictions as long as
political messages did not make explicit
endorsements of candidates by using
phrases, such as vote for, or vote
against
• $424 million in 2004 (52 gave over $1
million; 213 gave over $100,000)
VOTING FACTORS
Incumbency
• In good economic times, party holding
White House normally does well; in poor
times it does badly (pocketbook vote)
• Many who are doing well will vote
against incumbent if country is not doing
well because of friends or customers
not doing well
Character
• Honesty and reliability
• Opinion on crime, abortion, and school
prayer
• Acting presidential (speaking well,
dignified, compassionate, authoritative,
reasonable, likable)
Money
• Does not make a difference since each
candidate gets same amount (If both
candidates accept public funding.)
• Makes a difference in Congressional races:
• High-spending incumbents do better than
low-spending incumbents
• Average spending has increased over time
(incumbent to challenger ratio: 2.47)
Non-factors
•
•
•
•
•
VP nominee
Political reporting
Religion
Abortion: might affect who gets nomination
New voting groups: “angry white males did
not elect Republican Congress in 1994 and
soccer moms did not elect Bill Clinton in
1996”
Party Identification
• More Democrats than Republicans, but
Democrats lost 7 of 10 presidential elections
since 1968:
• Democrats less loyal (80% of Republicans
vote party line, but 1/3 of Democrats voted for
Nixon and 26% for Reagan)
• Republican attract a majority of
independents, who are usually younger
whites
• Higher percentage of Republicans vote
Issues
•
•
•
•
•
Prospective/Policy voting:
Voter learn about the issues
Select best candidate
Retrospective voting:
If voters look at how things have gone in
the past and they like it, they will vote
for candidate who will continue those
policies (and vice-versa)
• Elections are decided by this factor
Campaign
• Revive party loyalties
• Voters see how candidates handle
pressure
• Judge character and core values
Democratic Coalition
• African-Americans (most loyal)
• Mexican-Americans
• Puerto Ricans
• Jewish People (most loyal)
• Lost strong support of :
 Catholics
 Southerners
 Union Members
Republican Coalition
•
•
•
•
Business people (most loyal)
Farmers (volatile)
Professionals
Poor people (most are elderly and
retired; low-income blacks vote
Democrat, but less than 25% of
Democratic vote)
Party Realignment
• “sharp lasting shift in the popular
coalition supporting one or both parties
• “new issue of utmost importance to the
voters cuts across existing party
divisions and replaces old issues that
were formerly the basis of of party
identification”
• Five major shifts in American history
1800 Elections
• Jeffersonian Republicans defeated the
Federalists
1828 Elections
• Jacksonian Democrats win
1860
• Slavery issue
• Whigs (Constitutional Union Party)
silent and fall
• Democratic Party split
• Northern part waffling
• Southern party in favor of slavery
• Republicans win with Lincoln
1896 Elections
• Economic causes (depressions)
• Republicans defeat William Jennings Bryan
• Republicans: urban, workers, and
businesspeople, Catholics, Lutherans
• Democrats: farmers, small towns, low tariffs,
and rural interests, fundamentalists
• North/South became East/West
1932 Elections
• Great Depression
• Roosevelt Democrats win
• Democrats: urban workers, northern
blacks, southern whites, Jewish voters
Party Decline
• Ticket splitting increasing
• Leads to divided government
• Office bloc (Massachusetts ) ballot: list
candidates by office
• Party-column (Indiana) ballot: can vote
straight party with one mark
Campaign Finance Rules
(1974)
•
•
•
•
•
•
GENERAL:
Federal Election Commission (6 people)
Full disclosure of donors ($100 or more)
No cash contributions over $100
No foreign contributions
No limit if candidate does not accept
federal funding (up to $50,000 if he
does)
Campaign Finance Rules
(1974)
• Individual Contributions:
• No more than $2,000 per candidate per
election
• An individual may not make federal
political gifts exceeding $95,000 every
two years, of which only $37,500 may
go to candidates
Campaign Finance Rules
(1974)
• Presidential Primaries:
• Matching funds for $250 donations or
less
• Candidate must raise $5,000 in each of
20 states in $250 contributions or less
to be eligible
Campaign Finance Rules
(1974)
• Presidential Election:
Major party candidates: all costs up to a
legal limit paid by the federal
government (if they accept federal
support)
Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote):
part of costs paid by the federal
government