The Changing Importance of Winter
Rains to Annual Precipitation Totals
in Florida.
Peter Waylen
and
Youliang Qiu
1000
Winter
Input = Output
Precipitation = Runoff +/- Evap.
+/- ΔStorage
P - R = (E +/- ΔS +/- ΔGw)
Seasonal P-R (mm)
SANTA FE RIVER near
Fort White. (1627 sq.km)
High Springs Precipitation.
1949 -1986
800
Regression
Summer
Regression
600
b = 0.72
400
200
b = 0.31
1
0
Seasonal EvapoTranspiration rates
-200
-400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Precip. and Runoff (mm)
250
250
Winter
Mean Monthly Precip
Mean Monthly Runoff
Winter
200
150
100
E
E
Summer
50
E
200
150
100
50
Month
Percentage Output as R and (P-R)
Seasonal Precipitation Input (mm)
100
50
100
b = 0.07
80
0
60
b = 0.09
-50
(P-R) as %
Regression
R as %
Regression
Dry = Cool
E declines
(P-R) as %
Regression
R as %
Regression
-100
-150
2
b = -.02
40
b =.02
20
Dry = Warm
E increases
0
0
200
400
600
800
Winter Precipitation (mm)
400
600
800
1000
1200
Summer Precipitation (mm)
Jacksonville
Tallahassee
Pensacola
Federal Point
Appalachicola
31
30
Ocala
29
St. Leo
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION DATA SETS
1/8th° Gridded-data set 1949 -2000
www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Data/
Gridded
Maurer, E.P., A.W. Wood, J.C. Adam, D.P. Lettenmaier,
and B. Nijssen, 2002, A Long-Term HydrologicallyBased Data Set of Land Surface Fluxes and States for
the Conterminous United States.
J. Climate 15, 3237-3251.
Tarpon
Springs
Bartow
28
27
Fort
Myers
26
National Climate Data Center 1900 2000
25
-88
-87
-86
-85
-84
Gridded Centroid
-83
-82
-81
-80
Historic Records
10000.00
1350.00
Mean Summer
1250.00
Precipitation (mm)
1150.00
1050.00
Northwest
2:1
950.00
850.00
750.00
1250
650.00
550.00
450.00
1000
350.00
(mm)
250.00
750
150.00
Mean Winter
Precipitation (mm)
500
250
South
6:1
Escambia R.
5
3
Santa Fe R.
2
500
PERCENTAGE OF MEAN ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
IN WINTER.
1949 - 2000
30
3
Blackwater Crk.
2
2
25
2
Fisheating Crk..
Selected Streamflow Sites
20
15
1
1
1
10
1
Percentage of Mean
Annual Flow
25
25
Escambia R.
Santa Fe R.
Blackwater Crk.
Fisheating Crk.
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Calendar Month
9
10
11
12
-88
-87
-86
-85
31
Linear
Trends
in Summer
Totals -88 -87
LINEAR
TRENDS
IN
Linear
Trends
in WinterTotals
Gridded
Data (1949-2000).
SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION
31
Gridded
Data30(1949-2000).
TOTALS
-88
-87
-86
-85
-84
-83
-82
-81
-80
-86
-87
-85
-84
-83
-81
27
25
26
25
28
-87
-88
-87
-86
-85
-84
-83
-82
25
27-86
-87
-81
-80
26
-86
28
1.0
4.0
2.0
30
0.0
3.0
-1.0
2.0
29
-2.0
1.0
0.0
Significance
-1.0
-4.0
-1.0
-85
-5.0
27
-2.0
-84
-85
-8.0
-3.0
26
-4.0
-84
26
25
0.10
-83
-2.0 -82
0.05
-83
-3.0
0.01 -82
-4.0
-5.0
25
-8.0
27
1.0
-3.0
280.0
-5.0
25
3.0
Slope (mm/yr)
30
26
Slope (mm/yr) Slope (mm/yr)
31
29
-88
-80
4.0
2.0
31
-80
28
-88
-81
29
27
26
-82
30
-80
29
27
-83
3.0
28
-81
-82
-84
-80
Slope (mm/yr)
-86 Trends
-85
Linear
Gridded Data (1949-2000).
29
-86
-85
-81
31
28
-87
-82
4.0
29 -83
-82
in-84WinterTotals
30
-88
-83
31
30
-88
-84
Linear Trends in Summer Totals
Gridded Data (1949-2000).
-8.0
-81
-80
-81
-80
-88
-87
-86
-85
-84
-83
-80
-85
-84
-83
-82
-81
30
-80
LINEAR TRENDS IN THE
30
PROPORTION OF ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE 29
WINTER
28
27
Significance
0.10
26
0.05
0.01
-85
-84
-83
-82
-81
0.0040
29
0.0035
0.0030
28
0.0025
0.0020
0.0015
27
0.0010
0.0005
25
26
0.0000
-80
25
Slope (proportion/yr)
31
Slope (proportion/yr)
-86
-81
31
Trends in Winter as Proportion
ridded Data (1949-2000).
-86
-82
COLD PHASE ENSO
31
30
NEUTRAL PHASE ENSO
31
29
30
WARM PHASE ENSO
1
29
27
0
28
26
9
8
7
6
28
27
Proportion of annual
precipitation
during
26
winter under various
ENSO phases.
25
-88
-87
25
-88
-86
-87
-85
-86
-84
-85
-83
Gridded data
5
-88
-87
-86
-85
-84
-83
-82
-81
-80
-82
-84
-81
-83
-80
-82
-81
-80
1
0
9
8
Differences in Proportion
of annual precipitation
During winter
Warm phase - Cold phases.
7
Gridded data
6
5
APPALACHICOLA
1900 - 2000
PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL TOTAL FALLING IN WINTER
STANDARIZED BY ENSO CLASSIFICATION.
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
-2
Proportion of Observations
-3
-3
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2 0.4
2
Deviate Standardized
by ENSO Phase
0.00
3 0.6
3
1 0.2
1
0 0.0
0
-1 -0.2
-1
-2 -0.4
1910
1930
1950
Year
1970
1990
-0.6
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %
Positive Pre -1950
Positives Post-1950
Negatives Pre-1950
Negatives Post -1950
Standard Normal
Long-term Mean and Deviations of
Winter % by ENSO Phase.
Cold 35.6, 7.1
Neutral 42.0, 8.4
Warm 43.1, 8.5
2D Graph 1
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
0.00
2.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
0.6
Ocala
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
Cold 22.1, 6.6
Neutral 29.3, 7.4
Warm 35.3, 8.0
-0.4
-0.6
0.6
Bartow
0.6
-0.4
Proportion of Observations
Proportion of Observations
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
Cold 17.3, 5.2
Neutral 25.1, 7.9
Warm 31.3, 7.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Positives Post-1950
Negatives Pre-1950
Negatives Post -1950
Standard Normal
0.6
Proportion of Observations
0.25
0.75
Positive0.50
Pre -1950
Long-term
and Deviations
1.00
1.25Mean1.50
1.75 of
2.00
0.00
Winter % by ENSO Phase.
0.6
Cold 22.1, 6.6
Neutral 29.3, 7.4
Warm 35.3, 8.0
St. Leo
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
Cold 18.1, 6.3
Neutral 26.5, 7.5
Warm 35.0, 9.1
-0.4
-0.6
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %
0.50
0.75
0.25Positive
0.50Pre -1950
0.75
Positives Post-1950
Negatives Pre-1950
Negatives Post -1950
Standard Normal
0.6
-0.2
0.25
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %
Proportion of Observations
0.00
-0.6
0.00
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %
-0.4
0.4
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
0.6
Fort Myers
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2 -0.2
-0.2
-0.4
Cold 11.8, 4.3
Neutral 17.4, 6.6
Warm 25.9, 9.7
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.6
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %
Acknowledgements
“Partners in Education Program”
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.50
1.75
-0.4
2.00
Pensacola
0.6
Proportion of Observations
1.25
0.00
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.6
Proportion of Observations
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Tallahassee
-0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
2.00 0.2
0.2
0.2
andard
%0.0
0.0 Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter
0.0
0.0
00
0.25
0.2
0.50
0.75
1.00
-0.2
Positive Pre -1950
Positives Post-1950
-0.4
Negatives Pre-1950
Negatives Post -1950
-0.6
Standard Normal
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.25
1.50
1.75
Long-term Mean and Deviations
-0.2of
Winter % by ENSO Phase.
-0.2
Cold 36.7, 9.3
Neutral 39.6, 9.0
Warm 41.8, 6.3
-0.4
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
-0.4
0.00
2.00
0.4
0.50
0.75
Positive Pre -1950
Positives Post-1950
Negatives Pre-1950
Negatives Post -1950
Standard Normal
Long-term
and Deviations
of
1.00
1.25 Mean
1.50
1.75 2.00
0.00
Winter % by ENSO Phase.
Cold 36.7, 9.3
Neutral 39.6, 9.0
Warm 41.8, 6.3
Tarpon Springs
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
Cold 18.3, 6.4
Neutral 26.7, 7.3
Warm 35.5, 9.8
-0.6
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %
0.6
0.6
0.4
-0.4
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
-0.6
2.00
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %
-0.4
Proportion of Observations
Proportion of Observations
0.6
0.25
-0.4
Cold 32.8, 8.1
Neutral 37.1, 8.0
Warm 42.9, 7.2
-0.6
-0.6
2D Graph
1
Standard Deviates from
Long-term
Mean Winter %
0.00
-0.2
Positive Pre -1950
0.25
0.50Post-1950
0.75
Positives
Negatives Pre-1950
Negatives Post -1950
Standard Normal
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
0.6
Jacksonville
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
Cold 22.0, 5.7
Neutral 29.1, 8.2
Warm 36.4, 8.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.6
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Standard Deviates from Long-term Mean Winter %