FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
UNITED STATES ARMY
G8 Program Analysis and Evaluation Directorate
9 MAY 2007
COL Wesley Jennings
U.S. Army
Command and Installation
Division, PAED,
Deputy Chief of Staff G8
OPMG Brief V1.0
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
Agenda
• Understanding the Strategic Context
• POM 08-13 review
• Army Challenges
• PBR 09-13
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
2
Program Analysis & Evaluation
Directorate
Director
PAE
Current Strength
Military
Civilian
42
44
Program Development
Division
POM Process
POM Development
Program Overview
Program Integration
Created 1972
during Nixon Administration
MG Grisoli
Deputy Director
(Civilian)
Deputy Director
(Military)
Mr. Dean Pfoltzer
Incoming
Manpower & Force
Program Analysis
Division
Force Structure
Manpower
Readiness
Training
Acquisition Support
Program Analysis
Division
RDA
Sustainment
Depot Maintenance
Soldier Support
Command & Installation
Program Analysis
Division
Installations
COCOM Analysis
MACOM Analysis
RC Integration
Program Budget Data
Management Division
Database Management
Automation Support
Automated POM/BES
Modeling
PAE
develops
the
Program
ABO
develops
the
Budget &
works
Execution
year
PAED Mission:
Points of Influence:
– Responsible for the Army’s $737 billion
(FY08-13) Program Objective
Memorandum (POM)
– Single authoritative source for resource
information
– Experts in all facets of the Army’s
programs
– Develops courses of action for the Senior
Review Group’s resource allocation
decisions
– Provides independent assessment of the
Army’s programs
– Produces strategic documents for the
POM (Section III of the Army Plan,
Technical Guidance Memorandum, POM
EXSUM)
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
3
QDR
Building Army Capabilities to Meet the
QDR Strategy…
Surge
Steady State
Active Partnering Homeland Consequence
with USG Agencies Defense
Management
Global
Deterrence
Enabling
Partners
Transnational
Deterrence
Stability Ops
War on Terror /
Irregular Warfare
Foreign Internal Defense
Info Ops
WMD Elimination
Major Combat /
Strike
Forward Presence
Conventional
Enabling
Partners
Campaigns
Regional
Reconstruction
Deterrence
Defeat
Terrorist
Extremism
Information Ops
Sizing Variables:
Frequency
Number Scale / Intensity
Concurrency Ops Risks Duration
Policy Environment Partner Capabilities
Catastrophic
Counter
WMD
Defend
Homeland
“Shifting Our Weight”
Interdiction
Train & Equip
Irregular
Shape
Choices
Today's
Capability
Portfolio
Traditional
Disruptive
• Build to 70 full-spectrum BCTs
• Provide 18-19 BCTs for Steady State Security
Posture
• Surge capacity of additional 18-19 BCTs.
• Increase Special Operations Forces
• Improve capabilities for Stability, Security,
Transition, and Reconstruction Operations
• Rebalance the force to create the right mix of
units in high demand.
• Increase to 76 BCTs to build Strategic Depth
• 20-22 BCTs for Steady State Security Posture
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
4
POM 08-13 Strategy – Resource Mismatch
Operational
Demand
>
QDR
Strategy
$220B
>
$138.8B
Supplemental
Resources
$113B
Program
Army requires base and supplemental funding to
meet operational demand and strategic requirements.
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
5
PPBE DOCUMENT – FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – PREDECISIONAL – CLOSE HOLD
POM/BES FY08-13 Process
SA/CSA
engage
SecDef
OMB
meeting with
OSD/Army
EOH
POM/BES
priorities
PAED
4
3
1
(22 Dec)
2
OSD brief to
VP and OMB
Submit
POM/BES
FY08-13
Issue Team
work
(22 Nov)
EOH: “Broken
Program”
DAWG Brief –
“Army Capabilities
& Resources”
Issue
Team
Outbrief
Fiscal
Guidance
(-$22.5B)
SA/CSA meet w/
SecDef; Verbal
revised fiscal
guidance
(+$7B FY08-11;
+$12B FY12-13)
PAED
transfer
database
to ABO
Revised
fiscal
guidance
(19 Oct)
(5 Nov)
PEG
compliance
briefs
(3 Nov)
(3 Apr)
CSA meets
SecDef – Issue
Teams approved
2006
PPBE
Conference
24 EOH engagements to
define resource problem
and strategic choices
POM/BES 1st Half
POM/BES 2d Half (proposed)
OSD/JS/Army Issue Team
Program/Budget Review
Signed PDM
Grow the Army
Command
briefs
Develop/lock
requirements
(PEGs/CMDs)
21 February 2007
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
6
Base and Supplemental Funding
$220B
Base Funding
$200B
$180B
Reality
Supplemental Funding
GWOT Request
$108B
Total
Request
$160B
$46B
$66B
$68B
($49B
In
Title IX)
$96B
$101B
$108B
$110B
$130B
$141B
$144B
$143B
$144B
$144B
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
$140B
$120B
$92B
Growth in total Army spending is
largely a function of the war. Growth
in our base budget is a function of
the evolving security environment.
$100B
$80B
$60B
$40B
$20B
$0B
Actual Execution
Appropriations
President’s Budget FY08
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
7
Just in Time Readiness
Pre-decisional
FOUO
Framework for Force - Sizing Calculations
MCO 2
Troop Commitment
Peak 2x MCO Demand
(full access to forces)
Rotation Base for
Routine Ops
Rotation Base for
Stability Ops
PRESENT REALITY
(1 forward : 1 back)
• Environment requires readiness in
depth – Army lacks readiness in
depth
• Equipment and Personnel
shortages drive readiness ratings
• IAs/TTs require significant
Officer/NCO leadership
Rotation Base for
Stability Ops
(1 forward : 2 back)
(1 forward : 3 back)
MCO 1
Stability Ops
Routine Ops + GWoT
Homeland Defense
force size
is the maximum of:
• Calculated
STEADY
STATE SECURITY
POSTURE
Time
QDR/OA-06 GOAL
Routine operations (plus rotation base)
Peak MCO demand
Stability operations (plus rotation base)
FOUO
1
Goal: 1 forward : 3 back…or Stress to All-Volunteer Force
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
8
Army Challenges
“Just in Time Readiness”
• Restoring strategic depth—Readiness of next-to-deploy forces
– Equipping brigades by 2019
– Training units to counter insurgency mission
– Continuing to rely heavily on supplemental
• Implementing Reserve Component utilization policy
– Increasing pre-mobilization readiness of Reserve Component forces
• Sustaining core capabilities while executing mission specific training
• Resetting the force for next fight
– Replacing/recapitalizing/repairing unit equipment
– Rebuilding Army prepositioned sets & War Reserve Secondary Items
– Preparing units for next deployment
• Growing a ready Army
– Synchronizing elements of growth
• Sustaining all-volunteer force
– Reducing stress on Soldiers and families
– Increasing dwell time
Supplying Army Forces for the Long War
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
9
Transforming While at War
“Building a Campaign-quality Army with Joint & Expeditionary Capabilities”
• Transforming organizational design
–
–
–
–
Countering traditional and irregular threats
Building brigades that can fight under any joint headquarters
Redesigning Division and Corps headquarters to enable them to serve as joint headquarters
Shifting personnel from institutional force to operational force
• Modernizing all components
– Implementing OSD guidance—increasing Joint interdependence
– Protecting the force is a continuous process—must adapt to changing environment
– Fielding Future Combat System of Systems initial spinouts during this program
• Realigning Army footprint
– Implementing BRAC, Global Defense Posture Realignment, and stationing changes
– Adjusting Grow the Army plan
• Implementing new readiness paradigm
– Establishing Force Generation model
– Assuring access to Reserve Component
• Transforming leader development
– Increasing skill sets to adapt to changing environment
– Improving cultural awareness
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
10
Ground Force Initiatives
• Modularity (Standardized Unit Designs)
– Building flexible and agile general purpose forces
– Converting all brigade combat teams and support brigades (Active; National Guard; Reserves)
– Completing conversions to modular organizations with equipment by 2019
• Future Combat System of Systems
– Enabling networked battle command (JNN/WIN-T study underway; report out in June)
– Fielding spinouts beginning in FY08
– Fielding first Future Combat System brigade combat team by 2015 (one per year thereafter)
– Empowering Soldiers with the network (situational awareness)
– Improving maneuver, protection, and sustainment capabilities (e.g. manned ground vehicles)
– Enhancing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities (e.g. unmanned aerial systems,
unmanned ground vehicles)
• Grow the Army
– Increasing brigade combat team surge capacity from 18-19 to 21-22 plus 2 maneuver enhancement
brigades per rotation given a surge rotation rate of 1:2 active component and 1:4 reserve component
– Improving active component dwell by 2013 with recurrent, assured access to reserve component
– Growing and rebalancing capabilities to mitigate high demand/low density shortfalls and increase combat
support/combat service support capacity:
Patriot
EOD
Engineer
Medical
Military Police
Military Intelligence
Transportation
Maintenance
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
11
Program Evaluation Groups
SA,
CSA
COCOM IPL
PEG
Integrators
MDEP
Mgrs
3 Wise Men
MACOM
POM
Title X Function
Manning
Equipping
Training
Organizing
Sustaining
Installations
Co - Chairs
ASA(M&RA) &
G-1
ASA(ALT)
&
G-8
ASA(M&RA) &
G-3
ASA(M&RA) & AASA
ASA(ALT)
&
G-4
ASA(I&E)
& ACSIM
• Six Program Evaluation Groups (PEGs) support PPBE
PPBC
• Secretariat & functional proponent co-chair each PEG
• ARNG, OCAR, and G-6 serve as Integrators within each PEG
3 Kings
SRG
EOH
• PEGs, assisted by the Program integrators:







Build Section III of The Army Plan (TAP)
Administer a set of Management Decision Packages (MDEP)
Set the scope, quantity, priority, and nature of requirements
Construct program performance measures and define metrics
Build the POM and convert the programs into budget-level detail
Help defend program during the review process
Track program during execution
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
12
Issues Army is Addressing During
Program Budget Review FY09-13
•
•
•
•
•
Grow the Army
Implement Reserve Component utilization policy
Equip and modernize the force
Review Stationing/MILCON plan
CSA Initiatives
– Accelerate Growth
– Families & Supporting Soldiers
– Modularity & Modernization
– Reserve Components
– Leader Development
– Adapting Institutional Policies & Programs
– Strategic Communications
• CJCS recommendations
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
13
COCOM J8 Conference
BACKUP
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
14
Capability Gaps Army Must Close by 2020
“Supporting the Joint Fight”
•
Soldier Protection: situational awareness; counter IED, mine, and sniper;
improved vehicle and body armor; active protective system; chemical and
biological detection/protection; unmanned systems
•
Network Enabled Battle Command: communications on the move; joint
integrated situational awareness through sensor integration; networked precision
fires; planning and direction; scalable, tailorable, and lowest level
•
Battlespace Awareness: persistent surveillance; multi-spectrum surveillance;
situational awareness; real-time intelligence distributed to appropriate levels
•
Force Protection: counter air, missile, rocket, artillery, and mortar; combat
identification; biometrics; platform survivability
•
Operational Maneuver: ground mobility; strategic and intra-theater movements
•
Information Operations: cultural awareness; electronic warfare; PSYOPs
•
Logistics: joint rapid distribution; logistics information fusion; situational
awareness and asset visibility; tactical medical transport; reducing demand
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
15
Growing Capabilities to Meet Global Demand
PAED
 Increase ~74K across the Army by FY2013 building a total of 76 BCTs
(48/28) and about 225 Support Brigades (80/85/60)
 Continue to rebalance capabilities across the three components
Current Program
Approved Program
Active
ARNG
482.4K
350.0K
+ 65.0K
+ 8.2K
547.4K
358.2K
USAR
205.0K
+ 1.0K
206.0K
Total
1,037.4K
+ 74.2K
1,111.6K
• Increases BCT surge capacity from 18-19 to 21-22 + 2 Maneuver Enhancement
Brigades per rotation given a surge rotation rate of 1:2 AC and 1:4 RC
• Improves AC Dwell by FY 2013 with recurrent, assured access to the RC
• Grows and rebalances capabilities to mitigate HD/LD shortfalls and increase
CS/CSS capacity:
Patriot
EOD
Engineer
Medical
Military Police
Military Intelligence
Transportation
Maintenance
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
16
The Force Integration Challenges
Adjust (Plus-Up)
5BCTs + Enablers
Accelerate
1 HBCT + 1 IBCT
Grow
The Army by 74.2K
Convert
Remaining Legacy Force
Rebalance
AC/ RC, CBT, CS, CSS
Reset
Army Equipment for distribution
FCS / AETF / 2 nd GEN
Modernize
Restation
IGPBS / BRAC
Train TTs
New Demand; Post 1/1ID Conversion
Mobilize / Deploy
ARNG and USAR / AC
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
17
Impact of Modern War
PAED
• Current commitments and demand for forces exceeds planning
constructs.
• Timing of funding has impacted strategic depth.
• Changes to threat and mission have permanently increased cost of
ground forces.
• Sustained commitment of ground forces requires sustained
commitment of national resources.
• Changes to threat and mission are changing resources and
requirements inside Army.
Cost of the Army reflects the cost of modern war
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
18
Equipping Soldiers for War
Soldier: 2006
Soldier: 2000
Parachutists &
Ground Troops
(PASGT)
Helmet & Accessories
PVS 7
Night Vision Device
& Accessories*
Protective
Goggles
PASGT
Vest
Load Carrying
Equipment
Close
Combat
Optic
Gloves
Army Combat
Helmet
& Accessories
PVS 14 Monocular
Night Vision
Device & Accessories
Close
Combat
Optic
MOLLE
Interceptor
Body Armor
(ACU Camouflage
Pattern)
PEQ-2A Infrared
Aiming Light
Outer Tactical
Vest (OTV)
Gloves
PAC-4 Infrared
Aiming Light*
Battle Dress
Uniform
M4 Carbine
Enhanced
Small Arms
Protective
Inserts
M4 carbine
Deltoid
Axillary
Protector **
Army Combat
Uniform
Side Plates**
Jungle
Combat Boot
PVS-4
Weapons Sight
Equipment Spending Per Soldier:
*$11,148
Infantry
Combat Boot
Type II (Tan)
Knee and
Elbow Pads
Protective
Thermal Weapons
Eyewear (Wiley X) Sight II (Light)
Equipment Spending Per Soldier:
$17,472
Increased cost and increased numbers equipped
**Item Not Shown
*Adjusted to FY06 dollars
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
19
Army - Combatant Command Engagement
in PPBES
SA,
CSA
COCOM Integrated Priority List (IPL)
• COCOMs highest priority capability gaps
• COCOMs main tool during PPBE process
COCOM ASCC POM
• Focus Includes:
– Integrating COCOM requirements to provide
joint capability
– MACOM Commander's Program Assessment
Commanders’ Narrative Assessments
• Commander’s personal program assessment and
priorities
• Provides information on priorities from the
MACOMs as well as selected COCOMs
COCOM Program Review
COCOM IPL
COCOM
ASCC
ARSTAFF
Integration
BES/POM
CJCS
Prog
Revie
w
Support POR
Department-Level
Assessment
Programmatic
Change
DOTmLPF Change
Gap & Excess
Analysis
Study
Functional
Functional
Capability
Capability
Boards
Boards
Assume Risk
Lessons
Experiments
Concepts
ACTDs
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD
JCIDS
20