Potential Impacts of Hurricane Flooding in the National Capital Region:
What if Hurricane Sandy Made Landfall in the Chesapeake Bay?
H-03
Amelia Martin1, Celso Ferreira2
1Undergraduate Civil Engineering, George Mason University (amarti14@masonlive.gmu.edu); 2Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering, George Mason University (cferrei3@gmu.edu)
INTRODUCTION
•This poster presents preliminary results of an undergraduate
research project investigating possible flooding impacts on
Washington, D.C. as part of the Undergraduate Research
Scholars Program (URSP).
RESULTS
Constitution Ave, June 2006
• Sea level rise puts DC at increased risk for flooding (Baecher et
al. 2012)
•$50 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Sandy (Blake et al.
2013) exposed the lack of research done on storm surge
flooding in DC.
Building Damage Impacts
Economic Impacts
• % Damage On Residential Buildings
•Total Economic Loss
1M Inundation
2M Inundation
Department of Justice, June 2006
Impacts from Hurricane Sandy Scenario
• The Federal Triangle experienced 200-yr flooding in 2006.
•Failure to asses risks to federal facilities would be seen
internationally as a gross oversight (Baecher et al. 2012).
Total Economic Loss = Building Loss + Contents Loss +
Inventory Loss + Relocation Loss + Capital Related Loss +
Wages Losses + Rental Income Loss
•HAZUS-MH, developed by the Federal Emergency
Management Administration, can estimate % damage and
economic loss.
Total Economic Loss from Sandy
Scenario estimated at $47 million.
• Government Economic Loss
3M Inundation
4M Inundation
METHODOLOGY
• Inundation Maps
Washington, D.C. DEM
• Digital Elevation Model
Water Depth Grid
(1m Constant Raster)
National Elevation Dataset (USGS)
• 1 arc second (30 meter) resolution
Government Economic Loss = Building Loss + Content Loss
• Constant Inundation Maps
ArcMap (Spatial Analyst Tools)
• 1m, 2m, 3m, 4m constant rasters
CONCLUSIONS
• Water Depth Grid
Grid = [Constant] – [DEM] (ArcMap Spatial)
• Hypothetical Hurricane Sandy Inundation
• Hurricane Wind and Pressure
Hurricane Sandy Modified
Storm Track
• On Government Points of Interest
Hurricane Storm Surge
Numerical Model
Asymmetric parameterized model based
on modified (shifted ) best track data for
Hurricane Sandy
• Hydrodynamic Modeling
Storm surge simulated using ADCIRC
model (2D-depth integrated version)
• Flood Mapping
Model results converted to NAVD88 and
interpolated based on DEM.
• Infrastructure Inventory
•General Building Stock
•Default HAZUS-MH Inventory
•HAZUS-MH Damage Functions
•Government Points of Interest
•DC Atlas All-in-One
•31 Department and Embassy Facilities
•DC GIS Real Property Tool
Government Points of Interest
• HAZUS-MH (GOV1) Damage Functions used to
estimate facility damage
• No facility damage occurs for Sandy Scenario
•While no government buildings would be damaged in a storm similar to
Hurricane Sandy, the joint military base Anacostia-Bolling would be at risk
for damage.
•Specific analysis of levees at Anacostia-Bolling should be conducted to
determine if military housing is at risk of flooding.
•Further research will focus on gathering more site-specific information for
government points of interest.
•Government facilities would benefit from evaluating flood risks to continue
normal operations in the case of flooding.
•Continued research on drainage to the Federal Triangle will
asses the risk of damage to priceless national artifacts and
important government offices.
• 4M Inundation damages four
Government Points of Interest
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research is supported by the George Mason University Undergraduate Research Scholars Program.
Research will continue and will be funded through Fall 2013.
References:
Baecher, G.., Galloway, G.E., Link, L.E. & Brubaker, K.L. (2012) Flood threat to the US national capital region. Flood Risk Management: Science, Policy and Practice: Closing the Gap pp. 212 -213. CRC Press.
Blake, E.S., Kimberlain, T.B., Berg, R.J., Cangialosi, J.P. & Beven II, J.L. (2013) Hurricane Sandy. National Hurricane Center.
(Images) National Capital Planning Commission, DC Department of the Environment, DC Office of Planning, DC Water and Sewer, Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. General Services
Administration, and Smithsonian Institution. Federal Triangle Stormwater Drainage Study. Rep. N.p., 6 Oct. 2011.