Presentation Outline
• Crime risk factors & a combating model
• Policing operations & arrests
• Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats)
• Some business indicators of crime trends
• SA’s crime profile:
o
Overall national trends
o
Curious provincial trends
• Worrying new trend (kidnapping)
• Concluding remarks
Relationships & motives relating to
murder
Relationships
Perpetrators known
to victims
Perpetrators as
relatives, friends, etc
80%
Relatives as
perpetrators
60%
20%
Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%
Motives/Conditions
Social
behaviour
Criminal
behaviour
(E.g. domestic
(E.g. resulting from
conflict such as
other crime such as
arguments,
robbery, etc)
jealousy, alcohol &
drug abuse, etc)
65%
16%
Group
behaviour
(E.g. gang & taxi
violence,
vigilantism, etc)
7%
Other
(E.g. retaliation,
self-defence,
police actions,
etc)
12%
Factors contributing to crime & violence
Socio-economic
conditions
•Urbanisation &
poor infrastructure
•Poor housing
•Poverty and
unemploym.
•Dysfunctional
families,
schools, etc
•Low levels of
education
•Absence of
after school &
childcare,
recreational
facilities, etc
+
Attitudes to
crime/violence
+
Facilitating
factors
•Early experiences
of violence
•Alcohol
•Culture of
violence
•Gangs
•Ready rationalisation of criminality
•Poor socialisation
•Poor angerand conflict
management
•Status of women
& children
•Drugs
•Firearms
•Poor urban
design
•Lack of safe
public transport
• Xenophobia
+
Weak regulatory
systems
• Weaknesses in
CJS (training,
resources,
corruption, etc.)
• Poor law
enforcement (incl.
by-laws)
• Weaknesses in
licensing systems
• Weaknesses in
transport regulation (e.g. taxi’s)
•Weaknesses in
school system
High levels
= of crime &
violence
Combating (fighting) crime
Crime prevention
Long-term interventions
Other interv.
(other depts
& com. initiatives)
• Socio-economic interventions
(social crime prevention)
• Crime prevention through environ-
mental design
• Deterrence through effective
Criminal Justice System
Deterrence
Private
security
Policing
Short-term interventions
Proactive
Policing
• Visible
policing
• Law enforcement
• Order maintenance
Reactive
Policing
• Crime investigation
• Law enforcement
• Order restoration
Arrests
Policing operations & arrests
Actions
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
% inc
Roadblocks
35 003
42 601
52 233
65 381
25%
Cordon & search
23 590
20 490
38 129
61 216
60%
Stop & search
842 580
1 006 186
1 542 031
2 063 923
33%
Vehicle patrols
1 065 196
1 354 304
1 775 170
3 851 034
117%
Persons searched
9 794 533
11 667 505
15 232 422
19 754 241
29%
Vehicles searched
3 542 802
4 121 994
2 666 181
7 712 536
189%
Arrests
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
%
Contact crimes
173 838
217 047
242 902
283 002
16%
Aggravated robbery
24 952
22 051
20 934
25 077
20%
-
176 346
210 548
208 041
- 1%
90 891
102 906
130 257
149 138
14%
Property & other serious
crime
Crimes dep. on police action
Detection & conviction rates
(selected crimes)
Crime type
Detection
rate (%)
% cases
court ready
Conviction
rate (%)
Contact crimes (crimes against the
person)
56,99%
32,24% (new
baseline)
23,78%
Property-related crimes
15,84%
31,06% (new
baseline)
24,50%
Crimes dependent on police action
98,53%
28,41% (new
baseline)
37,13%
Murder
26,57%
28,95% (new
baseline)
13,55%
Aggravated robbery
14,77%
34,82% (new
baseline)
11,40%
House robbery
18,99%
-
3,59%
Business robbery
18,83%
-
12,69%
Credibility of police crime statistics ?
Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies &
Burglaries): 2009 & 2010
2009
2010
% decrease
Armed Robberies
(Incidents)
282
159
- 43,6%
Burglaries
(Incidents)
426
311
- 27%
Armed Robberies
(Financial loss)
R19,36m
R10,03m
- 48%
Burglary
(Financial loss)
R19,97m
R10,07
- 49%
Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)
South African Insurance Association (SAIA)
(Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)
House robbery
4 – 21% (average decr)
Business robbery
19 – 28% (average decr)
Vehicle hijacking
19 – 31% (average decr)
-------------------------------------- -------------------------------------Vehicle theft
8 – 17% (average decr)
Business burglary
5 – 9%
House burglary
4 – 12% (average decr)
(average decr)
SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded
1994/95 – 2010/11
Average national & provincial crime ratios
Overall crime ratios (29 crimes)
Gauteng
400
350
W Cape
Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes)
National
Gauteng
700
600
300
500
250
400
200
300
150
100
200
50
100
0
0
W Cape
National
• Illegal possession of firearms
• Drug related crimes
• Driving under the influence
National & provincial ratios: murder
2003/04 – 2010/11
Western Cape
RSA
63.1
60.0
58.7
59.2
60.7
58.6
48.8
40.0
44.6
42.7
41.6
40.3
38.8
39.6
40.8
40.5
38.9
38.6
37.9
37.3
42.4
34.1
44.2
31.9
32.7
20.0
29.1
0.0
Crime Ratio per 100,000 population
80.0
Gauteng
2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011
National & provincial ratios: attempted murder
2003/04 – 2010/11
Gauteng
90
W Cape
National
84.8
80
70
60
76.7
26%
70.5
59.6
64.8
58.3
54.5
50
52.6
40
54.3
49.1
43.8
39.9
42.5
39.3
43.1
37.6
38.1
30
45.6
35.3
41.4
36.7
33.6
31.9
31
2008\09
2009\10
2010\11
20
10
0
2003\04
2004\05
2005\06
2006\07
2007\08
Trio crimes (National trends)
Actual figures
Business robberies
Car hijackings
House robberies
20000
18786
18438
18000
16000
16889
14691
13793
14000
12434
12825
12000
13599
14915
14481
14201
12761
14534
14667
13920 13902
10627
10000
9063
10173
9351
9862
9391
8000
6000
6689
5498
4387
3677
4000
3320
2000
0
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010\11
National and provincial trends
(Actual figures)
House robbery
Gauteng
W Cape
Business robbery
National
Gauteng
20000
16000
18000
14000
16000
14000
12000
12000
10000
10000
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000
0
0
W Cape
National
National & Prov crimes: Kidnapping
‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of
movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional
deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)
Free State
Gauteng
KwaZulu-Natal
Limpopo
Mpumalanga
North West
Northern Cape
Western Cape
RSA
3604
2 889
3 004
2 618
2 320
2 345
2 323
2 535
0
Number of reported crimes
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Eastern Cape
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Concluding remarks
• Reductions in most crime levels in Gauteng and increases in most
crime levels in the Western Cape cannot be explained only on the
basis of what the police do or don’t do
• The police’s contribution to crime prevention and crime reduction
is dependent on how well they perform their policing role
• The Western Cape in particular is experiencing crimes resulting
from conditions over which the police have very little control
• We still know too little about the risk factors and driving forces
behind crime in South Africa to fully understand how to fight it
• Much more in-depth and targeted research is required as a basis
for an integrated and multi-agency approach that would guide not
just the police, but everyone else
THANK YOU / DANKIE
JOHAN BURGER
Tel 012 346 9500
jburger@issafrica.org
www.issafrica.org