INFORMATION SOCIETY
3/24/2016
M. Gams
Three worlds with different properties
Intelligent systems - integration of the three
Collapse of time, space.
Definition: information society
More than 50% of GDP related to
information/knowledge.
More than 50% of employees active in the
information economy (immaterial labour).
Economy based on transition from material
goods to information/knowledge (primary and
secondary sector, e.g. OECD 1981, 1986).
IS started 1970-1980? Constantly growing!
Slovenian growth
BASIC I.S. LAWS
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Moore’s law (exponential growth of chip capabilities)
Makimoto’s law (10-year cycle of semiconductors)
Metcalf’s law: value(network) = square(no. of nodes) or
n*logn /Odlyzko (size of network is very important)
Sidgemor’s law (exponential growth of net traffic,
capabilities)
Groschs’law (cost equals sq. root (speed))
Amdahl’s law (T=S/R + P/(M*R))
Andreesen Lewis Fleming... net capitalism = frictionless
economy, information economy, Internet economy, new
economy (global, liberal, without rectrictions, regulations)
Computer Laws revisited, Computer, December 2013, vol. 46, no. 12
Laws
mMetcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes
Moore's Law
Metcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the
number of nodes – social networks - Internet
Sidgemore's Law - traffic doubles every three months
Andreesen's Law - cost of bandwidth is dropping
Disk capacity (+electronic basic properties) also grows exponential
Lewis/Flemig's Law - friction-free economy, booming,
self-regulating (Greenspan)
Gilder’s Law (The Law of Telecoms) - Total telecommunications system
capacity (b/s) triples every three years
Put on the Internet all your information and activities FB:mail
The cyber-world doubles fortune (real or fictive?? – current crises)
Side effect of information society is information overload
Information society demands intensive information knowledge for
successful leadership
Information society belongs to all of us
The Internet is the most democratic and free media in the world
The Internet and information society are our hope for the future
Za Obamovo zmago odločilen internet; vir
Finance 1.6.2009
David Plouffe, vodja digitalne kampanje Baracka Obame, Gradec,
maj 2009.
Nove tehnologije, zlasti internet, so eden glavnih razlogov, da je
Obama postal 44. predsednik ZDA.Od začetka kampanje, ko je bila
verjetnost za zmago skoraj enaka nič, so veliko tvegali; vedeli so, da
nimajo drugega kot odličnega kandidata in jasno vizijo, ob tem pa
pravilno ocenili, da je prav tehnologija pot za dosego ciljev.
***Internet kot glavni kanal kampanje so uporabili za zbiranje denarja
(pol milijarde dolarjev), promoviranje (3 milijone prijateljev na
Facebooku, na desetine profilov na omrežjih), organiziranje in
predvsem samoorganiziranje ljudi na terenu ter nenehno pošiljanje
sporočil neposredno do ljudi ***
ter tako pometli z močnimi tekmeci, ki so kljub veliki prednosti na
začetku kampanje igrali "po starih pravilih igre".
Moore’s Law
Transistors
MIPS
Micro
2000
100M
Pentium
Processor
10M
1M
1K
25
80486
80386
80286
100K
10K
500
8086
8080
4040
1,0
0,1
1. Electronic
0,01
world
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Saturation – When?
Human Generations
Generation no.
Generation name
Main object
I.
Agrarian
Food
II.
Industrial
Production
III.
Post-industrial
Services
IV.
Information s.
Information
Computer Generations
Generation no.
Generation name
Status
I.
Machine-level
Slave
II.
Programming
Slave
III.
Tools
Slave
IV.
Information
society
Assistant /
AGENTS
IS Impact on Humans (Lewis)
Generation
name
Duration
Comm. Speed
Agrarian
3000-5000 years
3-5 km/h human
Industrial
300-500
30-50 horse, car
Post-industrial
30-50
300-500 airplane
Information
30?
3000-5000
network
Human Saturation
Info clock >> biological clock
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Terminal velocity
Conflict between biological and information clock
Humans can’t cope with information overflow
Solution:
WE NEED
INTELLIGENT
ASSISTANTS
Discussion
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Information society - technological, human, social
Intelligent systems - SW generation with some degree of
intelligence
Intelligence (human, artificial, technical) is essential
True intelligent revolution decades away
Incredible possibilities ahead of us (first technical
intelligent systems, later true AI) that may prevent
saturation of human civilisation (overcrowded, shortage
of oil and recources …) and jump ahead
Kurtzweil : theory of singularity
THE FUTURE WILL BE
INTELLIGENT