2013 – The Year in Review
1
The Fleets - 2013
Type
Western Built Eastern Built
Turbojets
Turboprops
Total
22,113
1,007
23,120
4,797
1,001
5,898
Business Jets
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
18,072
Accident Classifications
Aircraft
* Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters
* Size: Weight, number of seats
* Use: Passenger, cargo, business, government
* Western built or Eastern built
How Measured
* Per hours flown
* Per departures
* Per number of aircraft
Classification
* Hull Loss Accident
* Total Loss Accident
* Economic Loss Accident
* Substantial Damage Accident
* Fatal Accident
* Major Accident
Accident Classifications
Major Accident:
An accident in which any of three
conditions is met:
1. Aircraft destroyed, or
2. Multiple fatalities to occupants, or
3. One fatality and aircraft
substantially damaged
Major Accidents
CFIT
LOC
Excursion
Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach
21
Approach
0
29 January
SCAT Air
CRJ-200
13 April
Lion Air
B-737
Bali, Indonesia
29 April
National Airlines
B-747
Bagram, Afghanistan
Takeoff
7
6 July
Asiana Airlines
B-777
San Francisco, USA
Landing
3
14 August
UPS
A-300
Birmingham, AL, USA
Approach
2
17 November
Tatarstan Airlines
B-737
Kazan, Russia
Approach
50
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Jet Major Accidents
2000 through 2013
20
19
15
16
13
19
19
13
17
17
14
13
10
11
5
7
2001 02
Eastern Built
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
7
12 13
Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014
Date
8 March
Operator
Aircraft
Malaysian Airlines
B-777
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Location
Indian Ocean
CFIT
LOC
Excursion
Phase
Fatal
Enroute
239
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents
CFIT
Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
Enroute
3
23 Januray
Kenn Borek Air
DHC-6
Terra Nova Bay, Antarctia
13 February
South Airlines
AN-24
Donetsk, Ukraine
Approach
5
4 March
CAA
Fokker 50
Goma, DRC
Approach
7
8 March
ACE Air Cargo
Beech 1900
Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Approach
2
7 April
Sahel Air Service
Beech 1900
San Tome and Principe
Approach
1
17 April
Lao Air
DHC-6
Vientiane-Wattay, Laos
Takeoff
0
16 May
Nepal Airlines
DHC-6
Jomson, Nepal
Landing
0
16 May
Flying Dragon
Aviation
Y-12
Shenyang, China
Climb
0
1 June
Sita Air
DO-228
Simikot, Nepal
Landing
0
10 June
Merpati Airlines
MA-60
Kupang, Indonesia
Landing
0
13 June
SkyBahamas
SAAB 340
Marsh Harbor, Bahamas
Landing
0
29 June
Batair Cargo
EMB-110
Francistown, Botswana
Approach
2
9 August
Ukraine Air Alliance
AN-12
Leipzig, Germany
Start
0
9 Sept
CorpFlite
DO-228
Vina Del Mar, Chile
Approach
2
Major Accidents
Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 (cont.)
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
CFIT
Phase
Fatal
10 October
MASwings
DHC-6
Kudat, Malaysia
Landing
2
16 October
Lao Airlines
ATR-72
Pakse, Laos
Approach
49
19 October
Air Niugini
ATR-42
Madang, Papua New Guinea
Takeoff
0
3 November
Aerocon
Metro III
Riberalta, Bolovia
Approach
8
10 November
Bearskin Airlines
Metro III
Red Lake, Canada
Approach
5
2 December
IBC Airways
Metro III
Arecibo, Puerto Rico
Enroute
2
26 December
Irkut
AN-12
Irkutsk, Russia
Approach
9
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents
2000 through 2013
40
39
35
30
31
33
31
26.1 (12 years)
25
20
29
24 24
22
15
21 20
23
22
17
10
5
2001
02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Eastern Built
09 10 11 12 13
20.6 (5 years)
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents
CFIT
Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
Approach
0
20 January
-------------------
AN-28
Addis ababa, Ethiopia
16 February
Nepal Airlines
DHC-6
Khidim, Nepal
Enroute
18
17 February
748 Air Services
HS-748
Rubkona, S. Sudan
Landing
1
21 February
Libyan Air Cargo
AN-26
Grombalia, Tunisia
Approach
11
13
Major Accidents
Business Jets
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Phase
Fatal
Pueblo, CO, USA
Takeoff
0
2 February
Extrapoint, LLC
12 February
Trident Aviation Svcs
Gulfstream IV
Bakavu-Kavumu, DRC
Landing
3
1 March
Asia Today, Ltd
Citation 750
Egelsbach, Germany
Approach
5
15 March
Private
Citation 501
Franklin-Macon, NC, USA
Landing
5
18 June
Triple C Devlopment
Beech 400
Atlanta,Gegoria, USA
Landing
0
13 July
Universal Jet Aviation
Gulfstream IV
Le Castellet, France
Landing
3
2 August
Airnor
Citation 500
Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Approach
2
15 Sept
Private
Lear 24
Bornholm, Denmark
Approach
0
18 Sept
Dewberry Air LLC
Beech 400
Macon, GA, USA
Landing
0
11 Nov
Tropic Air Taxi Aero
Citation 525
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Landing
0
17 Nov
US Customs
Citation 550
Greenwood SC, USA
Landing
0
9 December
Starwood Management
Iturbie, Mexico
Enroute
7
Oklahoma City, USA
Landing
0
21 December US Customs
Lear 35
Location
Lear 25
Citation 550
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents
Business Jets
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
20 February
The Vein Guys
Premier I
4 March
Global Jet Luxembourg
17 March
7700 Enterprises
5 May
Private
29 September
CREW MMCLLC
18 October
Dufrense, Inc
19 November
AirEvac International
Phase
Fatal
Thomson, GA, USA
Landing
5
Premier I
Annemasse, France
Takeoff
2
Premier I
South Bend, IA, USA
Approach
2
Lear 60
Valencia, Venezuela
Approach
2
Citation Jet CJ2
Santa Monia, CA, USA
Landing
4
Citation I
Derby, Kansas, USA
Climb
2
Lear 35
Ft. Lauderdale, USA
Climb
4
Approach
2
17 December Mallen Industries
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Premier I
Location
Atlanta, GA, USA
Business Jet Major Accidents
2000 through 2013
20
15
14
15
14
10.4 Average
10
8
9
8
12
13
11
8
7
5
2001 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
7
8
11
12 13
Business Jet Major Accident Rate
2000 through 2013
(Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft)
1.0
.75
5 Year Average:
.49
.50
.25
2005 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Major Accidents
Business Jets
1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
5 January
Private
Challenger 601
Aspen, CO, USA
Landing
1
12 January
Private
Citation
Trier, Germany
Apporach
4
3 March
Iran CAA
Falcon 20
Kish Island, Iran
Unk
4
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Approach and Landing Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 through 31 December 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach
21
Approach
0
29 January
SCAT Air
CRJ-200
13 April
Lion Air
B-737
Bali, Indonesia
6 July
Asiana Airlines
B-777
San Francisco, USA
Landing
2
14 August
UPS
A-300
Birmingham, AL, USA
Approach
2
17 November
Tatarstan Airlines
B-737
Kazan, Russia
Approach
50
Business Jet Major Accidents
2000 through 2012
20
63% of Business Jet Major Accidents
were Approach and Landing Accidents
ALA Accidents
15
14
15
14
13
10
8
5
8
6
8
9
5
8
9
8
7
12
8
7
7
6
5
4
2000 01 02
10.5
11
03
04
05
06
07
08
5
09 10
11
8
7
4
5
11 12 13
6.5
Controlled Flight into Terrain Major
Accidents
Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach
21
Approach
0
29 January
SCAT Air
CRJ-200
13 April
Lion Air
B-737
Bali, Indonesia
6 July
Asiana Airlines
B-777
San Francisco, USA
Landing
3
14 August
UPS
A-300
Birmingham, AL, USA
Approach
2
Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend
5 Year Running Average
23
Aircraft Upset Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 through 31 December 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
29 April
National Airlines
B-747
Bagram, Afghanistan
17 November
Tatarstan Airlines
B-737
Kazan, Russia
Phase Fatal
Takeoff
7
Approach
50
Aircraft Upset Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1999 through 2013
Number of Accidents
0
0
0
0
6
0
4
0
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Being Predictive
In A Reactive World
26
Being Predictive
•
•
Can we be predictive ?
Will it be successful in
reducing risk ?
Safety Basics
Safety = Risk Management
* Eliminate risk
* Reduce risk
* Acknowledge risk
Managing Risk
Risk Management 101
• Risk = (Probability) X (Severity)
• Everything in life has risk
• Manage Risk by modifying P or S
The Key to Risk Management
#1
Identify Hazards
Being Efficient
Good: Prevent 1 accident in 5 years
Better: Prevent 5 accidents in 1 year
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT)
Aviation Occurrence Categories
Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012
Reactive: Tending to react, characterized
by reaction
Proactive: Preparing for, intervening in, or
controlling an expected
occurrence or situation
Predictive: Inference regarding a future
event based on probability
The Spectrum of Safety
Fly-crash-fix-fly
Identify hazards
as they appear in
accidents
Reactive
Study past accidents and
incidents to identify hazards
and reduce risk
Utilize data from incidents and
normal operations to identify
trends and reduce risk before
an accident happens
Proactive
Predictive
Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data
Data Availability/Utilization
Predicting
• We can easily predict 90% of next
year’s accidents
- > 50% will be approach and landing
- Half of those will be runway
excursions
- There will be at least 2 Jet and 4
Turboprop CFIT accidents
- There will be 1 or 2 upset aircraft
Predicting
“Black swan” events
-
TWA-800
BA-038
-
QF-32
-
Being Predictive
•
Can we be predictive ?
Being Predictive
•
Can we be predictive ?
YES
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT)
Aviation Occurrence Categories
Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012
Safety Fatality Data - Circa 1992
Collision with terrain
Approach and landing
Loss of control
Maintenance
ATC systems
Postcrash survival
Inflight fire/smoke
Engine failures
Airport ground control
Nonconfiguration takeoffs
Windshear
Deicing/anti-icing
Rejected takeoff
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Trending
• Can detect trends and future hazards
* Systems
* Locations
* Procedures
ASAP and FOQA Analysis of OAK
Arrivals Receiving TAWS Alerts
TCAS Hotspot Snap Shot
Being Predictive
•
Will it be successful
in reducing risk ?
Predictive Challenge
- Being able to get the support of the
decision makers
Keys to Predictive Success
1. Data
and the technology to
use the data to make the risk
management case
2.
Decision maker support
Keys to Predictive Success
A Change of Paradigm
Outcome Based
Event Based
Outcome Based vs Event Based
583 Fatalities
Since 1995 (19 years):
Average 1.0 a year
165 Fatalities
1977
0 Fatalities
Since 1995 (19 years):
Average 40.0 a year
1,121 Fatalities
2005
The Spectrum of Safety
Fly-crash-fix-fly
Identify hazards
as they appear in
accidents
Study past accidents and
incidents to identify hazards
and reduce risk
Reactive
Utilize data from incidents and
normal operations to identify
trends and reduce risk before
an accident happens
Proactive
Predictive
Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data
Data Availability/Utilization
Negative Outcome
Negative Outcome(s)
Events
Challenges to being
successful in predicting
• Data
X
• Technology to utilize data
X
• Support of a reactive system TBA
2013 Summary
Aviation Safety 2013
 Commercial jets had another great year
 Turboprops had an average year
 Business jets had a better than average year
 CFIT has returned as the leading killer
 We now have the capability to be predictive
in our safety efforts – but is the system ready
to take advantage of this capability ?
Making Aviation Safer by reducing
the Risk of an Accident