emrg
energy and materials research group
Sustainable Fossil Fuels:
The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean
and Enduring Energy
Mark Jaccard
School of Resource and Environmental Management
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
January, 2006
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energy and materials research group
Prescription and prediction of a
sustainable energy system
Prescription – assume humanity should strive for:
–
A near-zero-emissions (indoor, urban, regional, global)
energy system with low impacts and risks to land and water
–
Expansion of system to meet legitimate energy service
needs of the global population
Prediction – given this sustainability prescription:
–
How will major energy options fare this century and
beyond?
–
What might such a system cost?
–
How could we achieve it?
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energy and materials research group
Motive: a researcher’s reaction
to strong assumptions
Troubled by many recent books attributing major global
problems to fossil fuels – war, economic chaos,
environmental harm.
“Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime
in this century unless we can find a way to live without
fossil fuels.”
(Goodstein, End of the Age of Oil, Norton, 2004).
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What is the energy system?
energy and materials research group
Primary energy
Secondary energy
Personal mobility
Nuclear
Hydrocarbons
Fossil fuels
Energy services
Lighting
Hydrogen
Space heating and
conditioning
Electric appliances
and equipment
Transport of goods
Electricity
Industrial- thermal
Industrial- mechanical
Renewables
Industrial- motive-force
Electrolysis
Energy efficiency
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Current trends
energy and materials research group
2000
2100
Ren.
Modern
290 EJ
Ren.
Modern
16 EJ
Ren.
Trad.
45 EJ
Ren. Trad.
90 EJ
Fossil
Fuels
358 EJ
Nuclear
9 EJ
Nuclear
90 EJ
Fossil
Fuels
920 EJ
Total =: 429 EJ
6 GtC/year
Population – 6 billion
E/GDP - 13.5MJ/$
Jan/2006
Total =: 1,390 EJ
>20 GtC/year
Population – 10.5 billion
E/GDP – 6 MJ/$
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Sustainable secondary
energy in 2100?
energy and materials research group
Hydrogen or
Hydrocarbons
10%
Hydrogen
30%
Hydrocarbons
30%
Electricity
30%
Jan/2006
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emrg
energy and materials research group
Challenges for nuclear and
renewables
Nuclear power (risk perception)
–
Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes)
–
Geopolitical risk
Renewables (uncertain costs with scale-up)
Jan/2006
–
Cost declines with R&D and cumulative production
–
Cost increases from scale-up related to low energy
density, variable output and inconvenient location
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Energy efficiency trend
energy and materials research group
E/ GDP (MJ /$ 1990)
25
20
15
10
5
0
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
Year
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energy and materials research group
Challenges to accelerating the
efficiency trend
Ignored costs of more efficient devices
– risks of long-payback and new technologies
– intangible costs of imperfect substitutes
Mega-rebound from energy productivity
– direct end-use rebound
– innovation and commercialization rebound
Policy barriers
– ineffectiveness of information and subsidies
– political challenge of higher prices and regulation
Jan/2006
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energy and materials research group
Fossil fuels:
“the unusual suspect”
How long can they last?
– reserves and resources of coal, oil and natural gas
– substitution between fuels and with other energy
Can we use them cleanly?
– history of cleaning up
– new and old challenges – urban, regional, global
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Hubbert’s peak
energy and materials research group
Jan/2006
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What consequence?
energy and materials research group
Jan/2006
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Oil sources and substitution
energy and materials research group
Jan/2006
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energy and materials research group
Secondary energy prices and
primary energy substitution
Unconventional oil
Coal
$ / liter
Conventional oil
Biomass
?
?
Cost of gasoline
Quantity of gasoline (liters)
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Zero-emission fossil fuel use
energy and materials research group
natural gas
coal, oil
combustion,
reforming,
gasification
electricity
hydrogen
CO2,
etc.
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energy and materials research group
Geological storage of CO2
and other emissions
Pipelines
Release methane
from deep coal
Depleted Oil Reserves
Deep Saline Aquifer
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Carbon sources and sinks
energy and materials research group
6,000 GtC
5,000 GtC
4,000 GtC
Coal
3,000 GtC
2,000 GtC
Living
PH < 0.3
Gas
Dead
1,000 GtC
Oil
0 GtC
l
n
as
ds
ls a se )
ere
tio
ria re
g
e
t
e
h
s
p
s
b
r
u
sp
m
rre p he Oil & rvo i
al
l F ce b
i
o
u
s
e
o
s
T
s
r
m
e
C
on
ios
Fo so u
At
es
r
b
C
e
(rJan/2006
Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU
rs
ife
u
Aq
O
a
ce
ns
Source: David Keith
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energy and materials research group
Jan/2006
Zero-emission fossil fuels
energy system
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energy and materials research group
Criteria for predicting social
preferences
Projected cost (synthesis of numerous studies)
–
–
–
Depletion of higher quality resources and sites
Cost reduction through innovation
Cost reduction through greater production (economies-ofscale and economies-of-learning)
Extreme event risk
–
Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes)
Geopolitical risk
–
Energy supply security and political independence
Path dependence
–
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Not a decision criterion, but a long-term cost factor
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Projected electricity cost
energy and materials research group
(¢/kWh)
Zero-emission generation of electricity
(¢/kWh in $US 2000)
PV-solar
12
10
8
coal
combustion
6
hydro
natural
gas
nuclear
coal
gasification
4
wind +
storage
biomass
2
Assumed input prices are coal $1.5 – 3/GJ, natural gas $5 – 7/GJ, and biomass $2 – 5/GJ.
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energy and materials research group
($/GJ)
Projected hydrogen cost
Zero-emission production of hydrogen
($/GJ in $US 2000)
25
20
Nuclear
Wind/hydro
electrolysis of electrolysis of
water
water
15
10
coal
gasification
5
natural
gas
biomass
gasification
Assumed input prices are coal $1.5 – 3/GJ, natural gas $5 – 7/GJ, and biomass $2 – 5/GJ.
See electricity prices figure for electrolysis.
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energy and materials research group
Incorporating all criteria
The challenge for nuclear
The limits for efficiency
Renewables versus zero-emission fossil fuels
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energy and materials research group
Primary energy shares in a
near-zero-emission future
2000
2100
Ren.
Modern
16 EJ
Ren.
Modern
450
Ren.
Trad.
45 EJ
Fossil
Fuels
358 EJ
Nuclear
9 EJ
Ren. Trad.
30
Nuclear
40
Total = 429 EJ
GHG Emissions = 6Gt/C
Jan/2006
Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU
Fossil
Fuels
680
Total
1,200
EJ EJ
Total= =
1,200
GHG
= 1~2 =
GtC
GHGEmissions
Emissions
1~2GtC
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energy and materials research group
Impacts for energy consumers
Energy price increases
–
Electricity final price increase of 25-50% over the next 50
years (less than 1% per year)
–
Similar increases for clean burning gaseous (H2 or H2
mixed with natural gas) and liquid (biomass) fuels
Rising energy cost share of household budgets
Jan/2006
–
Increasing in typical OECD country from today’s 6% to
8% by about 2050
–
Compare to 20% energy cost share of household budget
in 1900 and 20% in developing countries today
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energy and materials research group
Impacts for energy
regulation
Careful not to bias energy regulation
against clean fossil fuels
– Subsidies and regulations that only favour
efficiency, renewables and nuclear
Newer approaches
– Multi-sector or economy-wide cap and trade
(with safety valve)
– Sector-specific regulated niche markets
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energy and materials research group
Conclusion
Energy system should be seen in terms of means and
ends – not good guys and bad guys.
The end is a clean, enduring and low cost energy
system – with minimal extreme event and
geopolitical risk.
In the pursuit of this end, fossil fuels can be part of a
sustainable energy system for a very long time.
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energy and materials research group
For details
order online at
www.cambridge.org
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