Upper Valley Housing Coalition
Real Estate Market Update
September 11, 2015
Presented by: Buff McLaughry & Ned Redpath
Agenda
1. Market Trends
2. Pricing
3. Market Outlook
1
Market Trends - Geographic Focus
21 1
Market Trends – Hanover, Lebanon, Hartford
Down 4.9%
Listing Inventory (347)
Down 2.2%
Closed Sales (182)
Up 14.5%
Down 27.9%
Pending Sales (142) Days on Market (67)
June – August 2014
vs.
June – August 2015
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
1
Market Trends -
Down 4.6%
Listing Inventory (535)
Thetford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock,
Enfield, Lyme, Cornish, Grantham, Plainfield
Up 1.4%
Closed Sales (144)
Up 11.7%
Down 1.5%
Pending Sales (153) Days on Market (129)
June – August 2014
vs.
June – August 2015
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
1
Market Trends – Counties: Orange, Windsor, Grafton, Sullivan
Up 7.8%
Down 4.3%
Up 13.4%
Down 2.3%
Listing Inventory (4,165) Closed Sales (981) Pending Sales (1,018) Days on Market (129)
June – August 2014
vs.
June – August 2015
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
Agenda
1. Market Trends
2. Pricing
3. Market Outlook
Average Sale Price- Under $300K
$185,300
June – August 2014
$179,000
Down 3.4%
Closed Sales (193)
June – August 2015
Closed Sales (214)
*14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield,
Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
Average Sale Price- Under $300K
$152,300
June – August 2014
$146,700
Down 3.7%
Closed Sales (699)
*Counties – Grafton, Windsor, Orange, Sullivan
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
June – August 2015
Closed Sales (766)
Average Sale Price- $300K - $600K
$410,000
June – August 2014
$432,300
Up 5.5%
Closed Sales (99)
June – August 2015
Closed Sales (84)
*14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield,
Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
Average Sale Price- $600K - $1M
$771,600
June – August 2014
$749,000
Down 2.9%
Closed Sales (21)
June – August 2015
Closed Sales (25)
*14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield,
Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
Average Sale Price- Over $1M
$1,452,000
June – August 2014
$1,740,000
Up 19.8%
Closed Sales (9)
June – August 2015
Closed Sales (5)
*Statistically small sample
*14 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield,
Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
Average Sale Price- Over $1M
$1,550,000
June – August 2014
$1,604,000
Up 3.5%
Closed Sales (74)
*All NH & VT counties
*Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN)
June – August 2015
Closed Sales (92)
Agenda
1. Market Trends
2. Pricing
3. Market Outlook
Market Outlook – The good….
Area
1. Employment is High
United States
5.3%
New England
4.7%
Vermont
3.6%
New Hampshire
3.7%
*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. Interest Rates are Low
BUT…. For every 1% increase in
interest rates, buyers lose 10% of
mortgage approval value.
Unemployment Rate
July 2015
Market Outlook – The bad…
1. Inventory: 1. Low - income supported purchases (low-middle market)
2. High - discretionary purchases (high end market)
2. Wages: Stagnant wages have not supported significant price
increases in the last decade.
Market Outlook – The unknown…
1. Economic conditions in China - uncertain
2. Cheap foreign labor- stagnant wages, slow growth, flat pricing
3. Election year – another year of no accomplishments
4. 500 +/- houses in pipeline for permitting in region – good as long
as they are priced for income supported purchases
Market Outlook
*2007 Values
2007
2016
*Inflation Adjusted Values
2020
Questions?
Presentation posted on the
Upper Valley Housing Coalition website:
WWW.UVHC.ORG
Buff McLaughry
email: buff.mclaughry@fourseasonssir.com
Ned Redpath
email: ned@cbredpath.com