Brazil and Venezuela:
Gradualism versus
Radicalism
Maxwell A. Cameron
UBC
Political Science 332
Leftist Victories 1998-2009
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Chavez (1998, 2006)
Lula (2002, 2006)
Kirchner (2003)
Vasquez (2004)
Morales (2005, 2009)
Bachelet (2006)
Ortega (2006)
Correa (2006)
Lugo (2007)
Kirchner (2007)
Funes (2009)
Mujica (2009)
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Alternative Models for the Left
• Brazil under Lula
• Venezuela under Chavez
• pragmatic,
cautious,
seeking
leadership on
world stage
– Lula comes
from a trade
union
background
• radical,
unpredictable,
confrontation
seeking with
the US
– Chavez
comes from a
military
background
Are they in competition?
• Brazil has MERCOSUR, encompassing the
southern cone created in 1980s, designed to
serve as an alternative to NAFTA or
negotiation platform with other regions
• Venezuela has ALBA (the Bolivarian
Alternative for the Americas), created to
reinforce the alliances between Cuba,
Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and
various Caribbean states, as a more radical
alternative to the FTAA, Summits, OAS, etc.
or alliance?
• Banco del Sur, Telesur
• UNASUR
• Honduras: role of Brazilian Embassy,
support of Chavez for Zelaya
• OAS and new “Community” formed in
Cancun
Gradualism vs. Revolution
• Skidmore and Smith say Brazil is the
“land of the future”… they forgot the
punch line: “and always will be.”
• Venezuela is the land of perpetual
revolution. And, of course: “plus ca
change plus la meme chose.”
Brazil
• Pop. 200 million
• Approx. size of US
(3 million sq. miles)
• Ethnicity: mix of
white; mulatto; black;
and indigenous
• Literacy 89%
• GNP $2 trillion (no. 9
in world)
• Per capita $10,300
• Gini index 0.57
Brazil has been called Belindia
(Belgium within India)
• Unequal division of income and wealth
• Advanced sectors & huge underdeveloped areas
– Space program: manufactures & launches
satellites, jets
• Embraer, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in
the world
– Also extreme poverty
Despite Extremes,
a History of Gradualism
• Partly due to colonial experience:
– Portuguese rulers found no highly
developed native civilization, nor fabulous
wealth
• Independence in 1822 did not involve
large-scale conflict
Gradual Shift to Republic
• First regime a constitutional monarchy,
not a republic
– Dom Pedro I (1822-1831) - called for
constituent assembly, then imposed a
“mixed constitution” with some liberal
guarantees.
– Dom Pedro II (1840-1889) - War with
Paraguay
Gradual Abolition of Slavery
• At independence half the population of
4 million were slaves
– 1871 law of the free womb
– 1885 freed older slaves
– 1888 golden law: final abolition
Collapse of Republic
• First republic (1889-1930) - oligarchic state
– Suffrage restricted to literate adult males
(voters around 4-6 percent of population)
– The “politics of governors” at the national level
(twenty states in a federation)
– Coronelismo (rule of rural bosses, or colonels)
at local level
• Crisis after World War I due to elite power
struggles
• Crash of 1929 hits Brazil hard
Getulio Vargas and ‘Lite’
Fascism
• October 1930 coup led to Vargas’ Estado
Novo
• Revoked constitutional guarantees in 1935
• 1937 inaugurates a new authoritarian
constitution
• Corporatist regime
– Incorporation of labour
– Period of ISI
• Vargas deposed in 1945
• Vargas returns (1950-54) under Second
Republic (1946-1964) on PTB ticket
• 1954 commits suicide
Military Rule: BA ‘Lite’
• Brazilian generals take power in 1964, act against
Goulart, Vargas’ former minister of labour.
• Collegial and institutional system
• Threat of revolution low, level of repression
moderate
• Elections at state level continue
• Economic miracle: 1968-1974: 10% growth
• But also international debt (Brazil not oil exporter)
• Rise of militant labor in late 1970s:
– Emergence of Worker’s Party (PT) under Lula
• Gradual decompression or liberalization
Gradual Democratization
• Campaign for “Directas ja!”
• Tancredo Neves, of main opposition party
PMDB, elected 1985, then dies.
• Sarney replaces Neves (1985-90)
• Collor (1990-92): corruption and
impeachment
• Franco (1992-1995)
• Cardoso (1995-2002) - PMDB
• Lula (elected 2002, re-elected 2006) - PT
Lula’s PT in power
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• Continuity and change
• PT enjoys partisan support of 1 in 4 voters: a
relatively well organized party
• Idea of doing politics differently: Porto Alegre model
of participatory budgeting
• Combined with the realism of machine politics
• Corruption scandal of 2005 did not affect Lula
• Social policies: Conditional cash transfer (Bolsa
Familia) benefit millions
Venezuela
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Pop. 26 million
Approx. 2 x Calif
Ethnicity: Mestizo
Literacy: 93%
GDP: 355 b
Per capita $13k
Gini index 0.48
Colonial Legacies
• Like Brazil, no great pre-Colombian
civilizations or natural resources
• Gradually extended control over
diverse, scattered indigenous groups
• No sedentary peasantry develops
Yet Violent Independence Struggle
• Bourbon reforms empower Caracas, which
leads struggle for independence throughout
region
• Declaration of patria bobo in 1811
• Leadership of Bolivar
• “frightful levels of physical and economic
devastation” (Skidmore & Smith, p. 222)
• To win support from blacks, slavery abolished
• Yet no major social revolution
Volatile Republic
• Political rule of caudillos, coffee growers, and
ranchers
• Civil war (or federalist war) in mid 19th century
• And intervention
– Gunboat diplomacy at end of 19th and early 20th
century. Roosevelt Corollary to Monroe Doctrine
(Skidmore & Smith p. 225)
• Juan Vicente Gomez rules (1908-1935)
– Venezuela discovers oil
– 1929 Venezuela world’s largest oil exporter
– Becomes a petro-state: political system
shaped by dependence on oil (Skidmore &
Smith, p. 227).
Coups and Counter-Coups
• After Gomez’s death, Accion Democratic (AD)
emerges under Romulo Betancourt.
• Military governs until 1945
• October 1945 coup and alliance of AD and
COPEI and another party (trienio)
• Elections in 1947 won by AD (Romulo Gallegos)
• 1948 coup by Marcos Perez Jimenez - brutal
dictator
• Rigged elections in 1958, leads to ouster
Stability Under the
Pact of Punto Fijo
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Power sharing among major parties
Called “partyarchy” by critics
Economic moderation
Support for US in Cold War
Betancourt linked to Alliance for Progress
1974 Carlos Andres Perez
OPEC and wind-fall gains
Dramatic Breakdown
of Punto Fijo Pact
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CAP elected in 1989, “gran viraje”
Caracazo
Coup attempts in 1992
Impeachment of CAP in 1993 for
embezzling $17m.
• Constitutional reforms
fail under Caldera
Chavez’s Bolivarian ‘Revolution’
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1998 rise of Chavez and MVR
Constituent Assembly and 1999 constitution
2002 coup attempt
2004 survives recall
Re-elected in 2006
Shifts further left in 2007
Referendum in 2009
Latin America’s Two Lefts?
• Lula vs. Chavez: Gradual vs. Radical
• Reflect the countries in which they emerge
– Brazil has tradition of gradualism
– Venezuela has tradition of radicalism
• These differences reveal themselves in recurrent
patterns
– Independence (constitutional monarchy vs.
caudillismo)
– Relationship between the military and parties (Estado
Novo vs. Gomez dictatorship)
– Gradual democratization vs. dependence on oil and
political pacts
– Left parties vs. movements