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Side Event on Extreme Geohazards
Introduction to the Session
Hans-Peter Plag, Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA
Goal of Side Event
Engage the GEORisk 2014 Participants in a discussion about
the question of how prepared are we for extreme high-risk (geo)hazards?
- How well do we know the extreme hazard spectrum?
- Do we have the data to detect a looming extreme hazard?
- Do we have the processes to assess global threats and risks and the
governance to prepare for extreme hazards?
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Program of Side Event
Hans-Peter Plag: Introduction to the Session
Paola Campus:
Geohazards, Monitoring Networks, and Synergies
Sierd Cloetingh: Topo-Europe: An Integrated Solid Earth Approach to Continental
Topography and Deep Earth-Surface Processes in 4D
Deborah Brosnan: Facilitating a Paradigm Shift in Strategic Science for Extreme Geohazards
Policies and Decisions
Panel Discussion: The Risk of Extreme Geohazards: How Prepared is a Globally
Interdependent Society?
Panel Members:
Deborah Brosnan, Paola Campus, Sierd Cloetingh, Alik Ismail-Zadeck,
Hans-Peter Plag
Questions to Panel Members:
- To what extent do you see extreme geohazards as a potential cause for major and global
disasters or catastrophes that we should be prepared for?
- What do you consider as the main vulnerability of our global society with respect to
extreme geohazards?
- What are the main steps (research, governance, societal processes) we could do, and
should take, to reduce the risk associated with extreme geohazards?
Brief statements from Panel Members and then open discussion with audience
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INTRODUCTION: Terminology
Extreme Events:
• Extinction Level Events: more than a quarter of all life on Earth is killed and major species
extinction takes place.
• Global Catastrophes: more than a quarter of the world human population dies and that place
civilization in serious risk.
• Global Disasters: global-scale events in which a few percent of the population die.
• Major Disasters: disasters exceeding $100 Billion in damage and/or causing more than
10,000 fatalities.
Modified from Hempsell (2004)
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White Paper
Declaration on Extreme Geohazards
and the Reduction of Disaster Risks
1 Introduction2 Global Disasters and Catastrophes3 Extreme
geohazards4 Disaster Risk, Resilience, Antifragility, and Adaptive
Capacity5 Cost/Benefit Analysis of Planning for Extreme Geohazards
6 Confronting Disaster Risks for Extreme Geohazards7 Conclusions
and Recommendations
Acronyms
References
Resulted in two main activities:
- Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction (GGIS-DRR)
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- White Paper on Extreme Geohazards
Population Growth Offsets DRR Efforts
12 Billion by 2100
VEI 7 Eruptions
Tambora, 1815
Kurile, ~5550 BC
Santorini, ~1610 BC
Crater Lake, ~5680 BC
Changbai, ~970
Kikai, 2350 BC
Taupo, 230
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GEOHAZARDS: The Big Picture
Other potential X-Events (see, e.g., John Casti, 2012):
• Pandemics: Black Death killed 30-60% of the population in impacted areas
• Despots: Genghis Khan eliminated 11.1% of global population
• Solar Storms: could take out major parts of the power grids
• Loss of Internet: Could have extreme societal and economic consequences
• ...
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Conclusions and Recommendations
The largest volcano eruptions of the Holocene (1 in 1000 years events):
- today would threaten an already stressed food security
- challenge the crucial global transportation network
- could easily lead to a global catastrophe.
Chance of a major eruption (order VEI 7, 100
3
km )
in the 21st century: 5-10%:
- severe implications for food security, public health, transportation, global economy and stability.
Steps towards risk reduction and increased resilience:
(1) Risk assessment and risk awareness:
- Frequent review of global risk knowledge with IPCC-like process
(2) Early Warning (EW):
- core element: elaborate, comprehensive volcano observation system;
- cost-benefit analysis: should be willing to spend > $1 B/year;
- Group on Earth Observations’ (GEO) Geohazards Community of Practice is reviewing observation
requirements
(3) Response to Early Warning:
- dedicate research to understand societal response to EWs on time scales of years
also important for EWs of abrupt climate change impacts
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Conclusions and Recommendations
Post-Hyogo Framework of Action
Contribution:
- Understanding that we need to account for low-probability high-impact events
- Focus on improved global general resilience
Specific Post-2015 Actions:
- Improve monitoring that could provide early warning for emerging global risks
- Establish an International/Intergovernmental Panel for Global Risk (IPGR)
- Develop a convention/body for global risks to act before the hazard
It’s not the hazard that causes the disaster,
it’s the process triggered by the hazard that leads from hazard to disaster
Integrate (general) Resilience and Disaster Risk Reduction ==> RDRR
Is there something else we
are overlooking?
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Being out of scale
Metabolic Rate
Scaling law for metabolic rate:
(3/4)
Y = Y0 * M
human: Y = 50 -100 Watt
Extended metabolic rate:
YE = Y + CE
(C
:
total
energy
consumption)
E
Energy consumption per
capita:
Global Average: YE = 2,735
Watt
M
=
10
metric
tons
Humanity
has
an extended
Worst case: YE = 22,000
Watt metabolic
rate
equivalent
to
14
Billion
elephants
M
=
170
metric
tons
Mass
14 Billion interdependent elephants:
(2.7 Billion for the U.S. alone)
A heavy “load’ for Earth complicated to
Program of Side Event
Hans-Peter Plag: Introduction to the Session
Paola Campus:
Geohazards, Monitoring Networks, and Synergies
Sierd Cloetingh: Topo-Europe: An Integrated Solid Earth Approach to Continental
Topography and Deep Earth-Surface Processes in 4D
Deborah Brosnan: Facilitating a Paradigm Shift in Strategic Science for Extreme Geohazards
Policies and Decisions
Panel Discussion: The Risk of Extreme Geohazards: How Prepared is a Globally
Interdependent Society?
Panel Members:
Deborah Brosnan, Paola Campus, Sierd Cloetingh, Alik Ismail-Zadeck,
Hans-Peter Plag
Questions to Panel Members:
- To what extent do you see extreme geohazards as a potential cause for major and global
disasters or catastrophes that we should be prepared for?
- What do you consider as the main vulnerability of our global society with respect to
extreme geohazards?
- What are the main steps (research, governance, societal processes) we could do, and
should take, to reduce the risk associated with extreme geohazards?
Brief statements from Panel Members and then open discussion with audience
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