Governance Innovation
for Security and Development
Design Meeting
Video Teleconference
Fort Bragg, NC and Mountain View, CA
17 October 2013 - 1000-1300 Pacific
Agenda
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Introductions
Discussion on goals
Methodologies
Working structure
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ISA - March
PSOTEW - 13-16 January 2014
Washington DC
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Minerva fellowship
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reports, literature reviews, surveys,
case studies, articles, manuscripts,
web-based materials, tools
Identify timelines for identified projects
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Funding opportunities
Governance, Safe and secure
environment, rule of law (Karen and
Charles)
Sustainable economy and
infrastructure, Social well-being
(Marc and Maria)
Homeland integration (Paula)
Human behavior, Tech enablers
(Mark and Margarita)
Specify goals for project deliverables:
Conferences
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O
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O
Roles of working groups
Sponsor communications
SSDCO
ROL
Governance
Human behavior
Topic area discussions
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Certificate updates
O
O
O
O
O
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plenary (ies)
monthly seminars
survey
38G analysis
Other
Introductions
Fort Bragg
O BG Hugh Van Roosen
O COL Terry Lindon, IMSG
O COL Jay Wolff
O COL Rich Thewes
O COL Rob Levalley
O COL Mike Barger (USACAPOC)
O LTC Hanhauser (USACAPOC)
O LTC Scotty Lene (USACAPOC)
O LTC Jon Mapley-Brittle
O MAJ Mike Chagaris
O MAJ Tony Vacha
Mountain View
O Karen Guttieri, Principal Investigator,
Naval Postgraduate School
O Marc Ventresca, Naval Postgraduate
School
O Paula Philbin, Naval Postgraduate
School
O Maria-Dubravka Pineda, Naval
Postgraduate School
O Herman Semes, Naval Postgraduate
School (22nd Century Contract)
O Margarita Quihuis, Stanford
O Mark Nelson, Stanford
O Charles Palmares, Stanford
O Charlie Jenks, 351 CACOM
O LTC Joel Smith, 351 CACOM
O MAJ Brendan McAlary, 1st Training
Brigade, USACAPOC
Goals
Civil Affairs
Function:
Civil Affairs Functional Areas
Support Civil Military Operations (CMO)
Conduct Civil Affairs Operations (CAO)
Core Tasks:
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Population Resource Control (PRC)
Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (FHA)
Nation Assistance (NA)
Support to Civil Administration (SCA)
Civil Information Management (CIM)
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Public Health & Welfare
Infrastructure
Economic Stability
Rule of Law
Governance
Public Education & Information
Capabilities:
Civil Affairs Team
CMOC
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
3.
Civil Reconnaissance
Key Leader Engagement
Project Management
Key Leader Engagement
Project Management
CIM
Civilian Liaison Team
1.
2.
3.
Civil Reconnaissance
Key Leader Engagement
Civil Military Support Elements
(CMSE)
Functional Experts
CMO Staff (S/G 9)
Civil Affairs Planning Team (CAPT)
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.
2.
Civil Reconnaissance
Key Leader Engagement
Project Management
Advisor
Principle CMO Advisor
CMO Planner
Key Leader Engagement
Project Tracking
CMO Planner
Project Tracking
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Army Civil Affairs
(FM 3-57 2011)
Terms of Art
Doctrine
Task Framework / “IMSG”
Governance
Infrastructure
Economic stability
Governance
Sustainable econ development
“economy and infrastructure”
Public health and welfare
Public education, information
Social well-being
“essential humanitarian
services”
Public order
Safe and secure environment
“Civil security”
Rule of law
Justice and reconciliation
“Rule of law”
[ ]
“Homeland Integration”
Statement of Work
1.
Research
O cross-disciplinary team …in an analytic dialogue
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O
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2.
3.
producing academic reports, articles and
monographs on military support to governance…
will consider throughout the changing environment
and information communications technologies...
analysis on human behavior dynamics
technological enablers of peace and stability
operations
military governance areas
38G
Educational value
Methodologies
Certificate Updates
Certificate Programs
O SSDCO
O 90 Day Program of Instruction
O Phase 1: Distributed (6 weeks, reading assignments, online
lectures, discussion)
O Phase 2: Resident (intensive 4 week academic workload)
O Phase 3: Distributed (2 weeks, completion of papers)
O 12 graduate credits
O GP3100 Global Challenges and Governance
O GP3200 Security and Development
O GP3300 Analytical Methods in Support of Stability Operations
O Certification Status
O NPS Certificate and Official Transcript
O USACAPOC (A) Advanced Operations Course (AOC) certification
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O PKSOI/AWC and Naval War College onsite at NPS
Rule of Law Program Overview
Concurrent courses
1. GP 3110 Legitimacy, Law and Society
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2.
Comparative Legal Systems
O
3.
Legal traditions, culture of lawfulness
Public Order and Accountability
O
O
Rules, role of legitimacy, social context
Institutions to provide physical security and rebuilding/creating
state legitimacy
Intensive, interdisciplinary, integrated, faculty-led
environment
O Connecting themes and multiple perspectives on common issues
O No counterparts to other courses at NPS in terms of content
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Human Behavior Dynamics
O The Human Dimension
O analytic skills, and general understanding of the problem for Military
Information Support Operations (MISO) and others. Students will
survey relevant social science literatures (e.g., psychology, sociology,
anthropology) and military doctrine to develop a robust
understanding of human behavior dynamics and their own roles,
across the spectrum of conflict.
O Influence
O methods for addressing the challenges of information and
communication in influence operations. Students will be introduced
to communications theory, cultural considerations, influence
methods, and media.
O Measures of Effectiveness
O tools for evaluating both performance and effectiveness, familiarity
with ongoing efforts, and skill in both analysis and communication of
research findings.
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Conferences and
Related Projects
PSOTEW
ISA
Minerva
Sectors
Research priorities and ideas
Research Ideas
Transitional Regimes – Interim Governments
Direction of State Formation
O Top-down and bottom-up state formation
Development as a Product of Political and Economic Institutions
O Development through reform in governance and markets
Authoritarian Regimes and Violent Non-State Actors as Community
Stakeholders
O Exclusive and inclusive governance processes
O Participatory and deliberate democratic processes
O Emphasis on authoritarian regimes (e.g. Syria and China) and
VNSAs (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist
organizations)
Interim Governments
Revolutionary Provisional
(Transition managed by
counter-elite)
Power-sharing
(Transition is managed by
ancient regime and
opposition)
International
Incumbent Caretaker
(Transition is managed by
international actors)
(Transition is managed by
elites of the ancient regime)
Supervisory Authority
Executive Authority
Administrative Authority
(Domestic organs have full legislative
authority, international body has reserve
power and is the main administrative
authority)
(International body has full
executive authority; legislative
and executive authority is
shared with domestic powers)
Degree of International Authority
(International transitional
authority has full legislative/
executive & administrative
authority)
Michael Doyle - War Making and Peace Making:
Five Ecologies of The United Nations’ Post-Cold War Record
Transitional Politics
Reconciled
Factions
Hostile factors
Few
Coherent
Factors
3rd Ecology:
Angola
Bosnia
Cambodia
Cypress
Georgia
W. Sahara
Incoherent
Factors
4th Ecology
Brecho
(Bosnia)
E. Slavonia
(Croatia)
Rwanda
Many
Few
1st Ecology
El Salvador
Namibia
Tajikistan
5th Ecology
Bosnia II
Congo
Dem Rep
Congo
Liberia
Sierra Leone
Somalia
2nd Ecology
East Timor
Guatemala
Haiti
Mozambique
Many
Study Ideas
Behavioral Analysis in Counterinsurgency
O Behavioral analysis of authoritarian regimes and
violent non-state actors (e.g. warlords, militias,
insurgencies, and terrorist orgs) vis-à-vis COIN
O Hypothesis: predicts a significant and positive
relationship between a modified model of
community-driven development and the reduction in
conflict and promotion in development
O Methodology: test various models of diplomacy,
governance, and rule of law; controlled field
experiments and computer simulation
2010 QDR: Civil Affairs “the vanguard”
of Dept. of Defense support to Rule of Law
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USIP and PKSOI Guiding Principles for Stabilization and Reconstruction
Study Ideas
Compensation Payments
Text: Rule of Law
Rule of Law Through Formal and Informal Judicial Institutions
O Merits and challenges of rule of law through formal judicial
institutions, informal and customary laws, and religious codes
O Second and third order effects with respect to human rights
and conflict resolution
Constitutional Design in Post-Conflict States
O Merits and challenges of “accommodation” and “integration”
as approaches in constitutional design
O Second and third order effects on security and development
Infrastructure & economic development
(Pineda & Ventresca) – draft p1
Research overview: ‘Infrastructure’ is a multi-disciplinary
field with relevant focus on planning, policy, socio-technical
systems, innovation and risk. The links with economic
development are several:
O Large-scale systems project management and oversight,
due diligence for financial, human capitals
O Alignment of large projects to build capacity in local
firms/SMEs and supply chains/value chains
O Management of innovation and entrepreneurial activity in
support of broader economic and societal/well-being
goals
O Risk management across the range of potential risks –
physical, material, cyber, governance/ethics
Infrastructure & economic development, p 2
Research programme for GISD / CA community
O Produce ‘translation research’ matrix to guide our research and
engagement with the CA community
O Develop integrative literature review that digests ‘infrastructure’
conceptions and theory, compare/contrast with relevance for policy
and CA practice
O Define academic research on specific (infrastructure) topic to produce
working paper -> journal article, edited workshop proceedings,
conference presentations and/or panel. Sample research topics:
‘Alternative energy generation and delivery’; Community-based
models of water & sanitation capacity’; ‘System building’ across
specific infrastructure domains, e.g., Lessons from off-grid electricity
in Africa for community-building.
O Convene ‘Think Tanks’ with selected sets of CA community and
partners to hear views, experiences and identify practice needs
O Advise on specific, relevant CA expertise needed, to complement or
extend existing field competencies
Project Proposal: Analyses
Social Capital and Dynamic Stability
A New Era for Humanitarian Assistance
Institutional Drivers of Human Development
O Analysis of political institutional drivers—namely, capacity,
autonomy, and incentive—and their potential relationship with
human development (e.g. income, education, and health)
O Hypothesis: predicts drivers will have a significant and positive
relationship with human development; individually, the drivers
will no relationship
O Methodology: cross-provincial and regression analysis,
Philippines 1997-2009
Homeland Integration
Convenor: Paula Philbin
Questions for Sponsor:
O What purpose(s) to add focus on homeland integration?
O Will CA functional areas remain the same once ISMG is up and
running?
O How much is your intent to support Homeland Defense
Doctrine 3-27 or to explore “the problem you don’t yet know
about?”
Potential Areas of study:
O Posse Comitatus: Origins, variant claims, and a new reading
for policy
O Military response in complex catastrophes: Beyond Katrina
O Strategic communication: Managing crisis and political
challenge
Study Ideas
Persuasive Technology
O Develop framework to utilize “persuasive
technologies” to engage key leaders and
social movements to facilitate diplomatic
relations in non-permissive environments
O Project will review literature and test
engagement effectiveness in local cities and
possibly OEF operations
Study Ideas
Civil Information Management
O Develop framework for geo-spatial analysis
which will quantitatively assess and forecast the
effectiveness of Support to Civil Administration
in conflict mitigation and prevention
O Application of Bayesian statistics to a previously
developed equation on the size and frequency of
attacks in conflict
O Project will make recommendations to hardware
and software to improve visualization and
functionality
O Potential Partners: Quid and Palantir
Timelines
Plenary (ies)
Monthly seminars
Survey
38G analysis
Monterey Custom House
Commodore Sloat was the first of six U.S.
military governors in California
Backup Slides
Factors Affecting the Decision to Renew Major Fighting
35
Factors Relating to the Prospects for Sustained Peace
36
Factors Relating to the Prospects for Sustained Peace (contd.)
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Other Factors Related to Peace
38