BORDER ENVIRONMENT COOPERATION COMMISSION
Integrating Environmental
Solutions for the Border
Regional
Consequences
Of Climate
Variability
2.50
XVIII Border Legislative Conference
September 2008
Proyectos Certificados
(millones de dólares)
California 12
$ 184
30-Sep-08
Arizona 13
$ 146.09
Nuevo
México 8
$ 58.92
Texas 43
$ 748.67
76 en EUA
$ 1,137.68
65 en México
$ 1,965.57
Baja
California 15
$ 824.18
Sonora, 18 Chihuahua, 16 Coahuila 3
$ 258.48
$ 131.35
$ 156.60
Tamaulipas, 11
$ 527.67
Nuevo
León, 2
$ 67.29
141Proyectos con inversión de $3,103 millones de dólares
# of Projects
State
California
Arizona
Nuevo México
Texas
USA
B. California
Sonora
Chihuahua
Coahuila
Nuevo León
Tamaulipas
México
TOTAL
W/WW
No-BEIF
BEIF
3
0
2
1
2
2
12
3
SW
0
0
0
4
AIR
0
0
0
0
ENERGY
0
0
0
2
WCons
1
0
0
1
4
0
2
2
19
6
33
1
2
1
3
0
2
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
4
11
6
7
1
0
6
12
9
10
5
2
15
9
13
3
3
3
5
0
2
7
26
31
37
53
86
PROJECT PIPELINE
TOTAL
4
3
4
22
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
Year
PDAP
BECC
Total
(MD)
(MD)
(MD)
2006
$1.63
$0.39
$2.02
2007
$0.43
$0.54
$0.97
2008
$1.20
$0.27
$1.47
Total ($MD)
$3.26
$1.20
$4.46
Historic to
date
$30.28
$4.68
$34.96
Program Accomplishments through PDAP/BEIF
Service Coverage Advancement in Mexico – 100 Km
100
96
90
86
80
Coverage (%)
70
80
60
50
40
91
70
30
20
10
31
2005
0
Water
An increase in wastewater treatment
coverage from 31% to 80%, compares to
the national average in Mexico of less than
35%
1995
Sewer
Wastewater
Treatment
Certified BEIF projects provide the capacity to treat 300M gallons per day of raw or
inadequately treated wastewater, an equivalent to the wastewater discharge of 6.8M
persons ~ approximately 50% of the border population.
110
100
80
250
70
60
50
200
México
150
100
250
Received
222
185 ?
Eligible
200
152
149
150
22.79
50
143 ?
Select
0
13.75 13.90 15.15 4.41
46.66
Year
100
Total
EUA
MEX
17
14
3
25
17
8
Wastewater Treatment Plants
45
24
21
Sewer Collection
55
28
27
Water Treatment Plants
71
49 ? Water Distribution
27
0
2005/2006
29.71 33.68
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
135
50
115.58
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
88.39
0
37.53
10
118.34
20
185.64
30
BEIF
101.21
40
Investment (US$ Million)
US$ Millions
90
US Appropriations to US-Mexico Border Program
(1994 - 2009)
2007/2008
2009/2010
Earth’s Exceptional Conditions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Milky Way: Right size and type of galaxy
The Sun: Right size of star
Right distance from the Sun: Not so far, not so close:
Earth: Right size of planet
Jupiter: A meteors and comets catcher
The Moon: Partner for stability
Earth’s Nucleus: A magnetic shield caused by a semi-liquid nucleu
Plate Tectonics: Recycling crust to keep atmosphere balanced
Photosynthesis: Brilliant “invention”
Superior Life: Upper organisms development
There’s not better place…
There’s not place to go…
There’s not any other place…
0 meters
11,500 yrs End of last glacial age
21,500 yrs Last glacial age peak
420,000 yrs
Vostok nucleus
450,000 yrs
Earth’s orbit
similar to present conditions
780,000 yrs
Earth’s magnetic camp
inverted
1,000,000 yrs
3,200 meters
A Prophetic Graph
Expected Consequences in General
• Ecosystems: 20-30% of species are at risk of extinction if increases in global
average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5 °C.
• Food: At lower latitudes, crop productivity will decrease for even small local
temperature increases (1-2°C). At higher latitudes crop productivity will
increase for temperature increases of 1-3°C, then decrease beyond that.
• Coasts: Many millions more people will be flooded every year due to sealevel rise by the 2080s.
• Industry, Settlement and Society: At risk those in coastaland river flood
plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate sensitive
resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially
cities.
• Human Health: Climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the
health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive
capacity.
• Water….see next
Observed Changes in the Large-scale
Hydrological Cycle
– Increasing atmospheric water vapor content
– Changing precipitation patterns, intensity and
extremes
– Reduced snow cover and widespread of melting of
ice
– Changes in soil moisture and runoff
– Globally, land classified as very dry has more than
doubled since 1970
Likely Consequences (1)
• Climate model simulations predict precipitation
increases in high latitudes and parts of the tropics
and decreases in some subtropical and lower
mid-latitude regions, e.g. US-Mexico border.
• By the middle of the 21st century, annual average
river runoff and water availability are projected to
increase at high latitudes and in some wet
tropical areas, and decrease over some dry
regions at mid latitudes and in the dry tropics
Surface Temperatures
Likely Consequences (2)
• Increase precipitation intensity and variability are
projected to increase the risk of flooding and
drought in many areas.
• Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover
are projected to decline in the course of the
century
• Higher water temperatures and changes in
extremes, including floods and droughts, are
projected to affect water quantity and quality
worsening food availability, stability, access and
utilization
Greenland
An ice-melting pot
Key Considerations (1)
• Climate change affects the function and
operation of existing water infrastructure –
including hydropower, structural flood
defenses, drainage and irrigation systems- as
well as water management practices
• Adaptation options designed to ensure water
supply during average and drought conditions
require integrated demand-side as well as
supply-side strategies.
Key Considerations (2)
• Water resources management clearly impacts
on many other policy areas, e.g., energy,
health, food security and nature conservation.
• Several gaps in knowledge exist in terms of
observations and research needs related to
climate change and water.
Perspectives for Northern México and
Southwestern US
• Richard Seager & Ting, Cane, Naik, Nakamura, Li,
Cook
– Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia
University; Palisades, New York 10964
• David W. Stahle
– Tree Ring Laboratory, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville,
Arkansas
• Mike Davis
– Department of History, University of California at Irvine,
California
Research Approach
Observations
Ancient climate
reconstruction by tree
ring analysis
Modeling of ancient
climate using historic sea
surface temperatures
registry and validation
Modeling of natural and
antropogenic effects on
climate
XVI Century
Megadrought
(1559-1582)
• The hardest
known
• Caused by a
persistent La
Niña event
Indice Palmer de Severidad de Sequia
Drought at
the end of XIX
century
Humedad Modelada del Suelo
Drought at
mid XX
century
Humedad Modelada del Suelo
Las Perspectivas para
México
“Si las proyecciones de los modelos son
correctas, México se enfrenta ya a una
declinación de sus recursos hídricos que tendrá
serias consecuencias para el suministro de agua a
la población, la agricultura y las actividades
económicas en general. Esta declinación es
consecuencia del cambio climático, aunque
también se reconocen efectos sobrepuestos de
ciclos naturales tales como La Niña”
Mexican drought: An observational, modeling and tree ring study of variability and
climate change
Richard Seager et al
What Follows? (1)
• Make everybody aware, specially the decision makers, of this
situation and the urgency to act. We are at the 11th Hour!
• Develop a sound adaptation strategy for the border region
coordinated with regional and country-wide strategies, including:
– Scenario development for the border region assisted by climate
scientists
– Development of border-wide adaptation actions and goals
– Development of a needs assessment effort to identify actions,
projects and funds needed to cope with the challenges and to
accomplish goals
– Identification of funds sources for immediate and future needs
– Development of public policies and regulations needed for
goals accomplishment
What Follows? (2)
• Develop a sound mitigation strategy for the border
region coordinated with regional and country-wide
strategies, Mitigation measures can reduce the
magnitude of impacts of global warming on water
resources, in turn reducing adaptation needs.
Include:
– Development of state-by-state inventories of GHG
– Establishing of reduction goals according to global,
national and/or regional GHG reduction approaches.
– Promotion of GHG market mechanisms
– Development of public policies and regulations
needed for goals accomplishment
A Systems Approach
BECC/NADB
Cooperation
Interface
Organizations,
agencies, federal, state
and local
government bodies
RM
actions
Mitigation and
Adaptation
Measures & Projects
actions
Border Goals
indicators
regulations, funds, initiatives
coordination, synergies, consensus
RM
GRACIAS
Daniel Chacon-Anaya
General Manager
dchacon@cocef.org