Carbon
Budget
2007
GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field,
Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach
Last update:
1 July 2009
Outline
1. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
2. CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Cement
3. Drivers of Fossil Fuel Emissions
4. CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
5. Natural CO2 Sinks
6. Summary of the Global Carbon Budget
1.
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Year 2007
Atmospheric CO2
concentration:
383 ppm
37% above pre-industrial
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1
2007: 2.2 ppm y-1
Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL
2.
Emissions from Fossil Fuel
and Cement
Emissions from Fossil Fuel + Cement
Atmoapheric [CO2] (ppmv)
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y)
2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C
9
8
Emissions
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1850
4001850
380
360
340
320
300
Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC
280
1870
1870
1890
1890
1910
1910
1930
1930
1950
1950
1970
1970
1990
1990
2010
2010
[CO2]
1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1
2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1
2 ppm/year
Fossil Fuel
Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
10
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y)
9.5
9
8.5
8
7.5
CDIAC
IEAall
A1B(Av)
A1FI(Av)
A1T(Av)
A2(Av)
B1(Av)
B2(Av)
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
1990
1995
2000
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)
2005
2010
Percentage of Global Annual Emissions
Regional Shift in Emissions Share
62%
57%
49.7%
43%
38%
FCCC
Kyoto
Protocol
Adopted
Kyoto
Reference
Year
J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication
50.3%
53%
47%
Kyoto
Protocol
Enter into
Force
Current
Regional Share of Fossil Fuel Emissions
100%
D3-Least Developed Countries
80%
D2-Developing Countries
60%
India
40%
China
FSU
20%
0%
Cumulative
Flux
Emissions in 2004
[1751-2004]
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
Flux
Growth
in 2004
Japan
EU
Population USA
in 2004
D1-Developed Countries
3.
Drivers of fossil fuel emissions
Human and Biophysical Drivers of Accelerating AtmCO2
Kaya Identity
C Emissions = Population x Per Capita GDP x C intensity of GDP
Per Capital GDP
C intensity of GDP
Population
C Emissions
Raupach, Canadell, Le Quere, 2008, Biogeoscience
Regional Emission Pathways
C emissions
Wealth per capita
Population
C Intensity
Developed Countries (-)
Developing Countries
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
Least Developed Countries
4.
Emissions from Land Use Change
Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change
Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm
Tropical deforestation
13 Million hectares each year
2000-2007
Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Asia
0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Africa
0.3 Pg C y-1
1.5 Pg C y-1
[2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions:8.5+1.5 = 10 Pg]
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005
Historical Emissions from Land Use Change
Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation
2000-2007
1.5 Pg C y-1
1.60
Africa
1.40
Latin America
1.20
S. & SE Asia
1.00
SUM
(16% total emissions)
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
R.A. Houghton, unpublished
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
0.00
1850
Pg C yr-1
1.80
Regional Share of Emissions from Land Use Change
Canadell, Raupach, Houghton, 2008, Biogeosciences, submitted
5.
Natural CO2 sinks
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)
1.5 Pg C y-1
4.2 Pg y-1
Atmosphere
46%
2.6 Pg y-1
Land
29%
+
7.5 Pg C y-1
2.3 Pg y-1
Oceans
26%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)
Climate Change at 55% Discount
Natural CO2 sinks absorb 55% of
all anthropogenic carbon
emissions slowing down climate
change significantly.
They are in effect a huge subsidy
to the global economy worth half a
trillion US$ annually if an
equivalent sink had to be created
using other climate mitigation
options (based on the cost of carbon in
the EU-ETS).
Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction
1. The rate of CO2 emissions.
2. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the
total amount of C that can be stored by land
and oceans:
–
–
Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition
fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, …
Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean
currents, stratification, winds, biological activity,
acidification, …
Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press
Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks
% CO2 Emissions
in Atmosphere
Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere
Emissions
1 tCO2
400Kg stay
Emissions
1 tCO2
1960
1970
1980
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1990
2000
2006
450Kg stay
Efficiency of Natural Sinks
Land Fraction
Ocean Fraction
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink
• Part of the decline is attributed to up
to a 30% decrease in the efficiency
of the Southern Ocean sink over the
last 20 years.
Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5
• This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of
anthropogenic carbon.
• The decline is attributed to the
strengthening of the winds around
Antarctica which enhances
ventilation of natural carbon-rich
deep waters.
• The strengthening of the winds is
attributed to global warming and the
ozone hole.
Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science
6.
Summary
of the global carbon budget
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Source
deforestation
tropics
extra-tropics
1.5
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
2000-2007
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project (2008)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Source
7.5
deforestation
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
2000-2007
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project (2008)
1.5
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Source
7.5
deforestation
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
2000-2007
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project (2008)
1.5
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Source
7.5
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
2000-2007
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project (2008)
1.5
4.2
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Source
7.5
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
2000-2007
ocean
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project (2008)
1.5
4.2
2.3
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2007
Source
7.5
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
land
ocean
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project (2008)
1.5
4.2
2.6
2.3
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated to 2007)
Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO2
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1
To:
• Economic growth
• Carbon intensity
• Efficiency of natural sinks
65% - Increased activity of the global economy
17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy
18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks
(calculations based on the period 2000-2006)
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Conclusions (i)
• Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are growing x4 faster since
2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst
case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
• Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon
than Developed Countries.
• The carbon intensity of the world’s economy is improving
slower than previous decades.
Conclusions (ii)
• The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over
the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future),
implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing
emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to
stabilize atmospheric CO2.
• All these changes have led to an acceleration of
atmospheric CO2 growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the
previous two decades, implying a stronger climate forcing
and sooner than expected.
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