Energy and Carbon Performance of Housing: Upgrade Analysis, Energy Labelling and National Policy Development Joe Clarke, Cameron Johnstone, Jae-min Kim, Paul Tuohy Energy Systems Research Unit, University of Strathclyde Simulation has the potential to underpin future legislative requirements of the EPBD. Scottish Building Standards Agency funded work to investigate national domestic stock upgrades and individual dwelling certification. Project context: Scotland 1. Stock: 2,278,000 dwellings refurbishment requirement. with a high 2. Dwelling types: detached, semi-detached, terraced, tenement (flats with shared access), four-in-a-block, tower block, conversions. 3. Materials: brick/block (67%), sandstone (18%), whin/granite (4%), non-traditional (10%). 4. Construction system: cavity wall (72%), solid wall (28%). 5. External finish: rendered (71%), stone (18%), brick (5%), nontraditional (5%). 6. Energy: dwellings comprise a high proportion of overall energy consumption 14.5 TWh/yr (5.5 MT CO2) for heating against a total demand of 85 TWh/yr. Stock performance 1. Insulation and heating systems 80% have loft insulation (only 12% meet the 1991 building standards) 92% have hot water tank insulation (5% to an unacceptable level) 74% have pipe insulation (13% to an unacceptable level) 70% have gas central heating (14% are partial installations) 2. General mean National Home Energy Rating is 4.1 (0 poor - 10 good) need for energy efficiency improvements fuel poverty, hypothermia, condensation and mould growth are concerns Relevant upgrades wall, floor, loft, tank and pipe insulation draught-proofing heating system and control improvements double/advanced glazing low energy lights and appliances solar thermal/electric EDEM model constructed wind energy by applying the ESP-r recovered heat system to the national housing stock Legislative questions what upgrades offer best value? what deployment combinations are suited to the different house/construction types? how should the deployments be phased over time? can simulation be used to answer such questions? EDEM: stock modelling Problematic because of the many permutations of house types, constructional systems and upgrade measures. Easy to identify dwelling types from an architecture and construction (A/C) viewpoint, but …. • dwellings belonging to the same A/C group may have different energy consumption (/m2) due to dissimilar energy efficiency measures having been applied; • dwellings corresponding to different A/C groups may have the same consumption because the governing design parameters are essentially the same. => operate in terms of TCs not A/C types. Project method Assume thermodynamic classes (TC) where different A/C types may belong to the same TC. Dwelling model: There are 6,480living, TCs each representing unique comprises eating and sleeping areascombination of 7 fabric andtypical 6 system design parameters thatand maycontrol exist atset-points several has usage patterns, exposures levels. has TC specific design parameters applied is subjected to long term representative climate Determine the normalised energy performance of each TCs by simulation. Simulation context may be varied to represent future scenarios (e.g. climate or improved living Relate existingchange or proposed dwellings to astandards). TC via the present level of its governing design parameters. Should any design parameters be changed as part of an upgrade then that house is deemed to have moved to another TC. TCs therefore represent all possibilities now and in the future. discrete designs universe of possible TCs dwellings • well insulated • high internal mass • large windows construction • well sealed •… Thermodynamic class (TC) determinant parameters are unique combinations of parameters: Parameter Values Comments insulation level (6) insulation U of wall, floor, roof, glazing poor pre 1965 1.80 0.86 0.93 5.1 capacity level (2) mid 1981 regulations 0.60 0.45 0.35 3.3 warm 2002 regulations capacity position (3) 0.30 0.25 0.16 2.2 good 2007 regulations 0.25 0.22 0.16 1.8 air permeability (3) int intermediate 0.15 0.15 0.10 1.4 super advanced 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.8 window size (3) infiltration Air change rate poor typical 1.5 exposure (5) standard 1997 regulations 1.0 tight best practice 0.5 wall-to-floor ratio (2) effusivity (Jm K s ) capacity and systems parameters: low timber frame or drylined 675 high 1285 plaster on solid fuel type (5) exposure number of exposed surfaces fm 3 sides, 0 roof/floor 3 external surfaces plant type (8) ftg 3 sides, 1 roof/floor 4 external surfaces mt 2 sides, 2 roof/floor 4 external surfaces plant efficiency (3) sdet 3 sides, 2 roof/floor 5 external surfaces DHW (3) det 4 sides, 2 roof/floor 6 external surfaces wall ratio number of storeys RES type (3) low 1 walls lower % of envelope high 2 walls higher6,480 % of envelope RES scale (3) simulated giving 2 x 3,240 combinations representing models • poor insulation inherited • low mass the universe of possibilities. -2 • small windows • leaky •… -1 -1/2 behaviour EDEM: performance rating Insulation: poor ave high Infiltration: leaky ave tight Glazed area: std large Capacity: high low Gains: low med high Operation: frugal ave profl Exposure: high h-m ave UKCIP std future frugal ave profl Low carbon heating: no med high performance (kgCO2/m2.yr) Heating system efficiency: low med high A+ A B C D E F Climate: Hot water use: Water heat sys efficiency: low med high Energy efficiency lights: no med all Appliances: low med high Low carbon electricity: no med high Emissions factors: low med high eco m-l super individual dwelling statement low (-20-0) (0-15) (15-30) (30-45) (45-60) (60-80) (80+) current rating equivalent new build rating B F Energy performance characterised by the appropriate combination of key parameters EDEM: performance rating, SAP emulation Fabric loss (exp, ins): v.high high ave Infiltration: leaky ave tight Glazed area: std large Capacity: low Gains: std Operation: std Climate: std Hot water use: std Low carbon heating: Heating system efficiency: no low med med low v.low individual dwelling statement high high Water heat sys efficiency: low med high Energy efficiency lights: no med all performance (kgCO2/m2.yr) A+ A B C D E F (-20-0) (0-15) (15-30) (30-45) (45-60) (60-80) (80+) current rating B F Appliances: Low carbon electricity: Emissions factors: no med std high equivalent new build rating Options may be restricted to align with SAP 2005 assumptions TC Parameters Regression equation coefficients a 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1/0/2/2/0 0/0/2/2/0 1/0/1/1/1 0/0/0/0/0 0/0/0/1/0 0/0/1/2/0 1/1/1/0/0 1/1/0/1/0 1/0/0/0/2 1/0/0/1/2 1/0/1/2/2 1/0/2/1/2 0/0/2/0/2 0/0/1/1/2 1/1/2/0/1 1/2/2/2/0 0/1/1/0/1 0/1/1/2/1 0/1/2/2/1 1/1/1/1/2 1/1/2/2/2 0/1/1/0/2 1/2/1/2/0 E =aθ+ 0/2/1/0/1 0/1/0/1/2 0/2/0/2/1 1/2/0/2/2 1/2/1/0/2 0/2/0/0/2 0/2/1/2/2 -1.003 0.181 -0.946 -0.755 -0.969 -0.889 -0.857 -0.854 -0.855 -0.856 -0.800 0.915 -0.685 -0.742 0.001 -0.610 -0.610 -0.523 -0.557 -0.555 -0.196 -0.469 b-0.465 Rd + -0.396 -0.425 -0.389 -0.237 -0.228 -0.159 -0.157 b -0.008 -0.015 -0.005 -0.007 -0.009 -0.007 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.010 -0.013 -0.003 -0.005 0.007 -0.003 -0.003 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.006 -0.006 c-0.009 Rf + -0.005 -0.007 -0.005 -0.009 -0.009 -0.005 -0.005 c d e f g h i j -0.115 0.0097 0.0008 0.0052 -0.110 0 0.0009 0.0130 -0.157 0.2350 -0.0020 0.0013 -0.190 0.00010 0.0030 0.0204 -0.106 -0.0080 0.0009 0.0044 -0.107 0 0.0006 0.0128 -0.100 large -0.0940windows, 0.0028 0.0012 -0.121 0 -0.0020 0.0171 poor insulation, high -0.112 0.0387 0.0009 0.0052 -0.105 0 0.0010 0.0127 capacity (externally located), high -0.098 0.0155 0.0007 0.0046 -0.096 0 0.0009 0.0130 -0.113 infiltration, 0.0048 0.0010… 0.0054 -0.102 0 0.0007 0.0127 -0.112 0.0060 0.0010 0.0053 -0.102 0 0.0007 0.0127 -0.113 0.0064 0.0010 0.0054 -0.103 0 0.0007 0.0128 -0.114 0.0078 0.0010 0.0055 -0.104 0 0.0008 0.0129 -0.100 0.0093 0.0011 0.0048 -0.100 0 0.0008 0.0123 -0.229 0.0491 -0.0060 0.0047 -0.220 0.00040 0.0081 0.0194 -0.086 0.0552 0.0007 0.0038 -0.083 0 0.0002 0.0105 -0.105 0.0579 0.0007 0.0053 -0.083 0 0.0007 0.0103 -0.113 -0.0240 -0.0020 0.0014 -0.072 0.00020 0 0.0096 -0.087 0.0602 0.0007 0.0043 -0.076 0 0.0008 0.0091 -0.087 0.0604 0.0007 0.0043 -0.076 0 0.0008 0.0091 -0.097 0.0134 0.0002 0.0051 -0.072 0 0.0006 0.0090 -0.096 0.0489 0.0005 0.0053 -0.071 0 0.0007 0.0090 -0.096 0.0487 0.0005 0.0052 -0.071 0 0.0007 0.0090 -0.092 -0.0190 -0.0010 0.0034 -0.063 0.00003 0.0013 0.0073 -0.084 0.0527 0.0005 0.0045 -0.070 0 0.0009 0.0085 -0.102 0.0130 0.0002 0.0053 -0.071 0 dV + e θ Rd + f θ Rf + g θ V + h Rd Rf + i RdV +0.0006 j Rf V +0.0091 k -0.088 0.0425 0.0001 0.0047 -0.068 0 0.0010 0.0080 -0.076 0.0547 0.0005 0.0042 -0.065 0 0.0094 0.0078 -0.086 0.0396 0.0001 0.0046 -0.066 0 0.0091 0.0078 -0.074 -0.0050 0 0.0040 -0.046 0.00004 0.0002 0.0063 -0.069 -0.0060 0 0.0038 -0.042 0.00004 0.0001 0.0058 -0.053 0.0079 0 0.0032 -0.036 0.00002 0.0004 0.0043 -0.052 0.0077 0 0.0031 -0.035 0.00002 0.0004 0.0043 k 22.7 17.4 21.5 22.9 21.6 19.7 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.2 17.7 12.3 14.5 15.2 11.0 12.4 12.4 11.6 11.5 11.4 10.0 9.7 10.5 8.7 8.6 8.6 6.0 5.6 3.9 3.9 EDEM validation (v. measured and full scale simulation) Dwelling Type Detached Semi-detached Terrace Tenement flat 4-in-a-block As built As As As As built #1 built #1 built #2 built #1 Heating demand (kWh m-2y-1) 43 71 43 87 41 81 34 66 30 TC model TC heating (kWh m-2y-1) 13 46 30 76 18 46 28 13 91 46 29 87 21 34 11 67 26 26 % difference 7 7 7 5 7 3 2 -13 12 #1: with double glazing, cavity and loft insulation and draught proofing. #2: with double glazing, internal insulation and draught proofing. EDEM validation (v. published NHER ratings) EDEM (Electric) EDEM (Gas) 160 140 120 100 EDEM 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 NHER 120 140 160 EDEM: application scale Individual dwelling EPBD rating and action plan generation Stock rating and upgrade strategy appraisal Individual dwelling statement Scottish house condition survey EDEM performance (kgCO2/m2.yr) A+ A B C D E F (-20-0) (0-15) (15-30) (30-45) (45-60) (60-80) (80+) 60 current rating Certificate and improvement advice equivalent new build rating B performance (kgCO2/m2.yr) Scottish housing stock F Emissions 50 App 40 Lights 30 HW 20 Heat 10 CONTEXT 0 1996 2002 2020A 2020B 2020C policy, climate, fuel, demographics, economics A+ A B C D E F (-20-0) (0-15) (15-30) (30-45) (45-60) (60-80) (80+) current rating equivalent new build rating B F EDEM in use EDEM in use: emissions label property description type footprint storeys window size infiltration insulation heating system low energy lighting renewable energy det 45 2 10 poor poor g(old) 0% no carbon emission rate performance 2 (kgCO2/m .yr) A+ A B C D E F (-20-0) (0-15) (15-30) (30-45) (45-60) (60-80) (80+) current rating equivalent new build rating B F property description carbon emission rate performance high heating tight new insulation air leakage: system: level: type footprint storeys window size infiltration insulation heating system low energy lighting renewable energy det 45 2 10 poor tight high g(new) g(old) 0% no 2 (kgCO2/m .yr) A+ A B C D E F (-20-0) (0-15) (15-30) (30-45) (45-60) (60-80) (80+) current rating equivalent new build rating B C D B EDEM in use: energy certificate ENERGY CERTIFICATE current rating Current Property size: footprint SAP rating 60 storeys 1 current type: household questionnaire House type: det,sd-et,mt,flat flat Window %TFA: (10 or 25): 10 parameters: Airflow: tight, std, poor: poor Insulation: high, std, poor poor Heating: el, g(old), g(new) el LEL: 0%, 50%, 100% 0% RES: no,shw,(pv+shw tbd) no A (100-120) B (85-100) C (70-84) D (55-69) E (40-54) F (25-39) G (1-24) annual fuel cost: 34 £802 improved rating SAP rating improved Improved Property parameters: Airflow: tight, std, poor: poor Insulation: high, std, poor poor Heating: el, g(old), g(new) g(new) LEL: 0%, 50%, 100% 0% RES: no,shw,(pv+shw tbd) no A (100-120) B (85-100) C (70-84) D (55-69) E (40-54) F (25-39) G (1-24) annual fuel cost: 85 £198 improvement advice EDEM application: national scale Date Pre 1919-65 (64%) Cavity Solid Type 1965-82 (25%) Non-trad. Cavity Solid Cavity | Solid 1982-02 (11%) Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Totals Timber | Trad. 62% Houses Detached 4% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 2% 2% 18% Semi-detached 8% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5 21% 8.5% 3.5% 6% 1.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 24% Terraced 0.5 0.5% 38% Flats Tenement 6% 9% 1% Four-in-a-block 6% 2% 0.5% Tower block 1% Conversion Total (2.1 M) 1% 3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 1% 0.5% 0.5% 10% 1.5% 3% 2% 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 23% 2% 2% 17.5% 0% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% TC assignment Date Pre 1919-65 (64%) Cavity Solid Type 1965-82 (25%) Non-trad. Cavity Solid Cavity | Solid 1982-02 (11%) Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Timber | Trad. 62% Houses Detached 6 2,1 Semi-detached 6 2, 1 Terraced 6 1, 21 6 2 6,7,17, 18 6,7,17, 18 6,7,17, 18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 18% 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 21% 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 24% 38% Flats Tenement 6 2, 1 6 2 6,7,17, 18 Four-in-a-block 6 1, 2 6 2 6,7,17, 18 Tower block 6 Conversion Total (2.1 M) Totals 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 2, 19 6 10% 6, 18 3% 1, 2 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 23% 2% 2% 17.5% 0% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% EDEM application: national scale Date Pre 1919-65 (64%) Cavity Solid Type 1965-82 (25%) Non-trad. Cavity Solid Cavity | Solid 1982-02 (11%) Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Totals Timber | Trad. 62% Houses Detached 4% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 2% 2% 18% Semi-detached 8% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5 21% 8.5% 3.5% 6% 1.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 24% Terraced 0.5 0.5% 38% Flats Tenement 6% 9% 1% Four-in-a-block 6% 2% 0.5% Tower block 1% Conversion Total (2.1 M) 1% 3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 1% 0.5% 0.5% 10% 1.5% 3% 2% 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 23% 2% 2% 17.5% 0% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% TC assignment Date Pre 1919-65 (64%) Cavity Solid Type 1965-82 (25%) Non-trad. Cavity Solid Cavity | Solid 1982-02 (11%) Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Timber | Trad. 62% Houses Detached 6 2,1 Semi-detached 6 2, 1 Terraced 6 1, 21 6 2 6,7,17, 18 6,7,17, 18 6,7,17, 18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 18% 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 21% 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 24% 38% Flats Tenement 6 2, 1 6 2 6,7,17, 18 Four-in-a-block 6 1, 2 6 2 6,7,17, 18 Tower block 6 Conversion Total (2.1 M) Totals 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 2, 19 6 10% 6, 18 3% 1, 2 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 23% 2% 2% 17.5% 0% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% EDEM in use Upgrade strategy Current stock maps to 8 TCs: - TC6 - TC2 - TC1 - TC7 - TC17 - TC18 - TC19 TC Description % of stock Number of dwellings Floor area (m2) Annual heating demand (kWh/m2) 1 Solid wall, high thermal mass, large windows, poor insulation and large air change rate 11.5 261,970 22,461,000 90 2 Solid wall, high thermal mass, standard windows, poor insulation and large air change rate 16.5 375,870 31,778,000 87 6 Cavity wall, outer thermal mass, standard windows, poor insulation and large air change rate 42 956,760 83,283,000 75 7 Cavity wall, inner thermal mass, large windows, standard insulation and large air change rate 7.25 165,155 15,934,000 73 17 Cavity wall, inner thermal mass, standard windows, standard insulation and standard air change rate 8.25 187,935 18,087,000 47 18 Cavity wall, outer thermal mass, standard windows, standard insulation and standard air change rate 11 250,580 23,810,000 47 19 Solid wall, standard thermal mass, standard windows, standard insulation and standard air change rate 2.5 56,950 5,159,000 46 26 Timber wall, outer thermal mass, standard windows, high insulation and standard air change rate 1 22,780 2,596,000 26 Upgrade strategy Existing TC % of stock % of annual heating demand TC6 42 43 Improvement New TC Air tightness to high standards TC11 Insulation to standard TC18 12 TC relocations examined: TC11 TC upgrades may be phased: TC2 TC1 - TC6 to TC11 then to TC18 TC7 - TC18 to TC22/ TC24 then to TC30 TC17 & TC18 TC19 National heating demand reduction (TWh) (%) 0.67 4.6 2.2 15.5 • 1 to 16levels and 21 16.5 • 219to 19 Standard levels of TC19 1.3 draught proofing and • 6 to 11, 18 and 30 insulation 11.5 • 714to 28 High levels of draught TC21 1.2 proofing; standard • 17 to 22levels and 24 of insulation 7.25 • 188 to 30 High levels of draught TC28 1 • 19 to 21proofing and insulation 5 relocations gave highest TC22 potential 19.25 13.5 High levels of draught 0.7 proofingenergy savings: for space heating levels of TC24 0.9 • 1 to 21High(62%) insulation • 2 to 19High(48%) levels of draught TC30 1.6 and • 6 to 30proofing (90%) insulation • 7 to 28 (86%) 2.5 1.5 High levels of draught TC21 0.06 • 18 to 30proofing; (80%) standard levels of insulation 9 8.7 7 5 6 11 0.4 Space heating impact, detached houses Build period Pre 191965 Net heating energy demand (GWh /yr) Heating energy saving potential Net heating demand with Net heating New TC category energy saving energy with energy measures (GWh saved saving /yr) (GWh /yr) Construction % of total stock Cavity wall 4 6 11,844,000 896 45% 11, 18, 30 492.8 403.2 Solid wall 5 14,805,000 1,322.4 45% 595.1 4 11,844,000 710.6 75% 177.7 533.0 Non-Traditional Cavity wall 0.5 1,480,500 88.9 85% 16, 21 19 11, 18, 30 28 22, 24 30 11, 18, 30 30 727.3 Cavity wall 1 2 6 7 17 18 6 18 13.3 75.6 Non-Traditional Solid wall Cavity wall Timber 0.5 2 19 1,480,000 88.9 37% 19 56.0 32.9 2 26 5,922,000 154.2 55% 27 69.4 84.9 2 17 18 5,922,000 273.0 67% 22, 24 30 90.1 182.9 53,297,500 3,544 1,626.6 1,917.7 1965-1982 Generic Total floor area TC (m2) 1982-2002 Cavity wall Traditional Total 18 Overall outcome: TC 6 to 30 for detached house South Ayrshire Council Housing Stock (7876 dwellings) Carbon Footprint Projection 6.0 5.0 4.0 Number of commercial wind turbines required to offset emissions from South Ayrshire Council Housing Stock (based on the proposed Whitelees wind farm, Eaglesham) 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 +B ,2 A g 15 turbines (100m) 00 7+ sh up 00 w g 7 A +s +B hw ,u +r C es H up P g +s A hw +B +r ,B es IO +s hw +r es pp ly su A up 12 11 8 8 7 7 3 B, 20 07 +s A+ hw B, 20 07 +s up hw g A+ +r es B, uC H P+ sh up w+ g re A+ s B, BI O +s hw +r es su pp ly A+ up g up g A+ up g as is ,2 00 7 B, 20 07 su pp ly A+ B A up gr ad e fa br ic up gr ad e fa br ic is upgrade scenario as A g up +B ,2 00 7 7 +B ,2 20 0 is , as g e gr ad up br ic fa up A+ B A e is gr ad as up br ic su pp ly 17 fa carbon footprint per dwelling (T CO2 pa) EDEM application: regional scale upgrade scenario improvement advice Conclusions ESP-r system used to formulate EDEM for domestic sector upgrade appraisal. The approach is widely applicable because the underlying TCs cover all possibilities, present and future. EDEM is available under an Open Source license. EDEM has been applied at national and regional levels. In the former case (i.e. for Scotland 14.5 TWh/y): Phase 1 (TC6, TC2 & TC1) + Phase 2 (TC7) + Phase 3 (TC17 & TC18) + End of programme (TC19) - 4.7 TWh/y (32.4%) & 1.8 MT CO2 5.7 TWh/y (39.3%) & 2.2 MT CO2 7.3 TWh/y (50.3%) & 2.8 MT CO2 7.6 TWh/y (52.4%) & 2.8 MT CO2