Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge and
Policy Adaptation for European
Coastal Communities
S3PAC
Coordinator Institution: METU, Ocean Engineering Research Center
Ankara, Turkey E-mail: yalciner@metu.edu.tr
Consortium Leading Team:
Prof. Dr. Mustafa M. Aral, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia, USA.
Prof. Dr. Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner , Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Elcin Kentel , Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey.
Assistant Prof. Dr. Orhan Gunduz, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey.
Dr. Murat Bayar, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia, USA.
...
DRS-9-2014: Disaster Resilience and
Climate Change: Science and innovation
for adaptation to climate change:
“Research and Innovation”
Coordinator Institution EU Projects
METU/EU
#
Total Budget (€) METU Budget (€)
Projects
TOTAL
196 368,507,779.67
25,544,778.89
Completed
TOTAL Ongoing
51
176,538,469.84
7,861,476.04
 SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR): In the 21st century and beyond, SLR will have a strong regional
(spatial) pattern and the rate of rise will continue to increase. (IPCC).
 EXTREME EVENTS AND STORM SURGE: Combined analysis of hurricane storm surge
and spatial SLR is necessary when analyzing inundation effects since SLR increases flood
levels by providing a higher base for a storm surges (NOAA).
 POLICY ADAPTATION AND PREPAREDNESS: Policy adaptation and preparedness
measures to SLR and storm surge impacts are local and localized management strategy
depending on existing infrastructure, political and support systems are needed.
GOAL: With support from our consortium partners, our goal is to asses this problem from a
technical and impact preparedness point of view and ultimately develop systematic
principal response technologies which can be adopted by the coastal communities of the EU
as base line criterion to minimize human impacts over the next century.
TECHNOLOGY:
 Spatial SLR analysis of European Coastal Communities for the next millennium: This technology has been developed by
the coordinator institution and the outcome of this analysis will be provided to our partner institutions as a base line
database for the next millennium (Aral, et al. 2012; Aral, 2013; Guan et al., 2013; Chang et al. 2013a; Chang et al.
2013b).
 Storm surge analysis of selected coastal communities of the European Union: The methodology that is necessary for
this analysis will be described by the coordinator institution; and, using this methodology or any other appropriate
methodology partnering institutions will develop the storm surge database for the selected coastal communities of
their region.
 Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based inundation analysis of selected coastal communities will be developed by
partnering institutions.
 Impact preparedness goals and assessment for selected EU coastal communities will be coordinated by the
coordinating institution and applications will be developed by the partnering institutions.
POLICY ADAPTATION AND PREPAREDNESS FOR EU COASTAL COMMUNITIES:
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Policy adaptation and preparedness measures to SLR and storm surge impacts are local and needs
localized management strategy depending on existing infrastructure, political and support systems.
Pilot studies in coastal EU communities with socioeconomic significance will be conducted
 Comparison of best practices in Europe and North America and policy adaptation recommendations.
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Incorporation of NGOs, SMEs, research centers, and voluntary groups into broad problem-solving
Partnering institutions will collectively evaluate the outcome of preparedness measures for site
specific regions developed by partnering institutions. The outcome will be generalized to other EU
coastal communities based on heuristic methodologies.
Preparedness measures developed will be shared with governmental, NGOs, SMEs, scientific
organizations and the public through social media in an effort to minimize human impact over the
next millennium.
Dissemination and Exploitation .
 Aral, MM, Guan, J and Chang, B. 2012. “A Dynamic System Model to Predict Global Sea-Level Rise and
Temperature Change,” ASCE Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 2, 237-242, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000447.
 Aral, MM. 2013. “Climate Change and Human Population Dynamics,” Journal of Water Quality, Exposure
and Health: Special Issue on Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. DOI: 10.1007/s12403-013-0091-5.
 Chang, B, Guan, J and Aral, MM. 2013a. “A Scientific Discourse: Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise,”
ASCE Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (Invited Special Issue paper), DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000860.
 Chang, B, Guan, J and Aral, MM. 2013b. “Modeling Spatial Variations of Sea Level Rise and Corresponding
Inundation Impacts: A Case Study for Florida, U.S.A.,” Journal of Water Quality Exposure and Health (Climate Change
Special Issue), DOI 10.1007/s12403-013-0099-x.
 Guan, J, Chang, B and Aral, MM. 2013. “A Dynamic Control System Model for Global Temperature Change
and Sea level Rise with CO2 Emissions Impact,” Climate Research, Vol. 58: 55–66, DOI: 10.3354/cr01189
Thank you for your kind attention