Getting CI Customers Excited
About Intelligence
Arik Johnson – Aurora WDC
2003 SCIP European
Conference
“The Intelligent Use of
Business Analysis”
10 Step Plan
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Expect Respect
Determine Objectives & Hidden Agendas
Scope the Project
Become the Expert in your Subject
Tailor the Report to the Objectives
Summarise the Recommendations First
Make it Look Compelling
Place Value on Insight; Back it up with Data
Present Your Research Yourself
Follow-up – What Actions Resulted, RoI
1. Expect Respect
• Respectful assertiveness
• Better interaction with your project commissioner will
result in a better result for them – convince them!
• Meet face to face – book time with them
• Understand boundaries of confidentiality
• Extend level of trust/shared information
• Briefly explain capabilities, sources, methods
• Agree a timescale that respects your commitments
2. Determine Objectives & Hidden Agendas
•
•
•
•
‘I just want an information pack on…’
‘Give me everything we know about…’
‘I need to know about the competitor’s pricing…’
‘I need a copy of their last accounts…’
…but….WHY?
• who is actually going to analyse this information?
• what insight do they hope to get from it?
• what decisions will this information drive?
Finding Hidden Objectives
Example: …a request ‘on the fly’
“I want to know all about ACME Microwidgets. Especially
whether they are making any international investments.
…Oh, and I want to know what their balance sheet
looks like.”
Actual Objective
Objective:
To determine the quickest route for international expansion.
Real Q:
Is ABC Company a good acquisition candidate to expand our
operations overseas?
If you don’t know objectives you won’t answer the
right question...
Key Intelligence Topics (KITs)
• Process of Interactive Dialog with DecisionMakers through KIT Interviews; with 3
Protocols:
1. Strategic Decisions/Actions
2. Early-Warning Topics
3. Key Marketplace Players
• Source: Jan Herring, 1999
Examples of Strategic Decisions & Issues
1. Provide intelligence inputs for the company’s strategic plan to create “our” future
competitive environment.
2. Formulating “our” global competitive strategy: Assess the role of competitors in
achieving our business objective(s).
3. Globalization of (Our) Industry: How/with whom should we proceed? What are
our
competitors doing? With whom?
4. Asian/South American/etc. market development: Assess current competitive
situation;
describe the most likely future situations.
5. Strategic investment decisions: Identify and assess changes in the competitive
environment, including: Key/critical industry investments by others; Cash
requirements of other industry companies; Involvement/role of investment
community; Possible alternative sources for future investments, including alliances,
acquisitions, etc.
Examples of Strategic Decisions & Issues
(Continued)
7. What plans and actions must we take to maintain (our) technological
competitiveness
vis-a-vis key competitors.
8. “Product” development program: Identify and assess the programs of our leading
competitors and assess the status of other competing technologies.
9. New product development and roll-out: How and when will the competitors
respond?
How will they affect our plan?
10. How will our new distribution/sales/marketing strategy be viewed by the
industry?
Our competitors? Our distributors?
11. Protection of “our” proprietary information/technology: Competitors efforts to
acquire it?; Others interested in it?
12. Human resource issues: Hiring and retaining key employees.
Examples of Early-Warning Topics
1. Areas of possible technological “breakthrough” that could dramatically affect our
current and future competitiveness.
2. Technological developments, affecting either production capabilities or product
development and their uses by competitors and others.
3. Status and performance of Key Suppliers: Their financial “health”; Cost & quality
problems; Possible acquisition and/or alliances
4. Possible disruptions in supplies of crude-oil/components/etc.
5. Change in (our) industry procurement policies and processes.
6. Change in customers/competitors perceptions of us/our services.
Examples of Early-Warning Topics (Continued)
7. Companies and/or combinations of companies, considering possible entry into
our
business or markets.
8. Changes in international political, social, economic or regulatory situations that
could
effect our competitiveness.
9. Regulatory Issues: Near-term changes; deviations in long-term trends; other
govern-mental changes that could impact current regulatory regimes, e.g. people,
policy, etc.
10. Intelligence on Alliances, Acquisitions, and Divestitures among our competitors,
customers, and suppliers: Reasons and forces causing them; Objectives and
purposes of completed deals
11. Financial Initiatives by major competitors: Changes in current financial
strategy(s); Alliances, acquisitions, divestitures, etc.
12. Interests and efforts by others to acquire our company.
Examples of Key Players in the Marketplace
1. Provide profiles of our major competitors, including their strategic plans,
competitive strategies, financial & market performance, organization & key
personnel, R&D, operations, sales & marketing, etc.
2. Provide in-depth assessments of Key Competitors, including: competitive intent
vis-a-vis us and our major customers; strategic plans and goals, including
international objectives; Key strategies (Financial, technological, manufacturing,
business development, distribution, and sales and marketing); Current operational
and competitive capabilities
3. Identify new and emerging competitors, particularly those coming from entirely
different industries and businesses.
4. Describe and assess our current and future competitive environment, including:
customers and competitors; markets and suppliers; production and product
technologies; political and environmental; and the industry’s structure, including
changes and trends.
5. New customers, their needs and future interests: What are they and how are our
competitors trying to satisfy them?
6. Industry and customer views, attitudes and perceptions regarding “worth” of our
Examples of Key Players in the Marketplace
(Continued)
7. Identify and assess new industry/market players, including: Suppliers, major
distributors, customers and/or competitors, that are considering entry into our
business.
8. New technology/product developers: What are their plans and strategies for
competing in our industry?
9. Need significant improvement in marketshare and growth data, including that of
our competitors.
10. Management and operations need better intelligence concerning regulatory and
environmental activities for planning and decision making.
11. The investment/financial community: What are their views and perceptions of
our business and industry?
12. What are the interest and purpose of various suppliers and industry observers in
gathering information about our company?
3. Scope the Project
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Be clear on what is and isn’t in scope
Understand any boundaries set by confidentiality
Agree deliverables, including format
Negotiate timescales and resource requirements
Define the communications plan
Set milestones
Book review meetings
• Be prepared for the scope to change!
4. Become the Expert in Your Subject
• Swot!
• Immerse yourself in as much of the context of your
research subject as possible.
• You will need to convince your audience that you have
grasped the bigger picture
• Tips:
– Seek out any internal resources that can give you a potted
history/overview – get off the ground running
– Register online with useful alerting services
– Use SCIP chatroom forums!
Know Your Subject Matter
Be the
Expert
Think
Broadly
You
Understand
Implications
Anticipate
Questions
5. Tailor Your Report to the Objectives
• Don’t be tempted to use a ‘standard’ format or to ‘recycle’
an old report
• Let the ultimate decisions and/or actions drive your report
structure
• Where possible, directly answer the core questions behind
the project
• Even use these questions as headers in your report
summary
Keep It Ethical & Legal
• Feel comfortable with the information sources you have
used; only use sources you are willing to reference
• Don’t make recommendations that:
– Breach SCIP’s code of ethics
– Suggest blatant anti-competitive behavior
• Ensure your report/presentation confirms your
professional status – staff, freelance, consultant
• Confirm level of confidentiality, and authorised circulation
list at time of issue of any written report
6. Summarise the Recommendations First
• Focus on the answer!
• Recommendations
• Supporting Ideas
• Data and Methodologies (briefly!)
• Questions/Discussion
• Archive data in well-ordered appendices
Examples of Recommendations
There is opportunity in the widget industry.
ACME is a competitor with excellent
infrastructure and distribution systems.
However their weak management and low
growth makes them a take over candidate...
Examples of Recommendations
We should consider an acquisition to enter the
widget industry and ACME Microwidget appears
to be a likely candidate.
7. Make it Compelling
• Deliver in the format most likely to benefit your
sponsor/audience
• Balance use of text, data and graphics
• Consider how the report will be used in further work
– Will your sponsors want to reuse the graphics?
– Will they need to reprocess or reassess raw data?
• Choose graphics that give the data the most clarity
• Get the level of technical content right
Deliver What Saves Them Time
For Sales Team:
For Exec Board:
• May want to develop your
presentation into various
competitor mapping tools for
use in the field
• Will probably want to take
away insight that will help form
a strategic decision.
• Use matrices and charts that
can be adapted/built on
• Low emphasis on raw data
and ‘proof’; audience likely to
take your recommendations on
face value
•Limit the heavy stuff!
• Need a succinct overview
now
•Use clear graphics to get
ideas across
•BUT…have back-up data
available and highly ordered;
may need to come back to this
as part of a due diligence
process if recommendations
lead to actions
A Graphic Can Be Worth 1,000 Words, But….
• It has to be effective!
• What makes a graphic good…
– Simplicity
– Consistency
– Impact
– Telling a story
– Sourced
• Make sure you think about whether something will be
printed or projected.
Rules of Thumb for Data
Use the same dimension
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
80
60
40
20
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
East
West
3rd Qtr
North
4th Qtr
0
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
East
3rd Qtr
West
North
4th Qtr
Rules of Thumb
• Use the same color scheme
– Use uniform colors
– Change the colors to fit your presentation or match
your branded template
– Be careful of backgrounds
Challenge: Market Saturation
Household Penetration of General Purpose Credit Cards
84.2%
78.0%
79.9%
75.4% 76.3%
82.0% 82.6% 82.1%
80.8% 81.9%
83.4%
77.5%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
General Purpose Card = Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Discover
Percents Based on All US HouseholdsSource: NFO Worldwide
Rules of Thumb
• Don’t put too many graphs on a page
– Don’t overwhelm your audience
– Keep the same ideas together
• Make it easy to read!
– Use easy to read font
– Don’t use too many grid lines
– Make scale easy to read
Industry Growth
Projected Growth in Industry Level
Outstandings
35.0%
Projected Industry Level Volume Growth
25%
32.0%
23%
25.0%
20.0%
7.8%
9.0%
4.8%
2000
4.5%
2001
Prime
3.1%
4.3%
2002E
Subprime
6.3%
12%
7.8%
9%
9%
10%
1998
1999
10%
9%
7%
2003E
Total
1994
1995
1996
1997
2000
2001
-1%
2002
2003
Inudustry Risk Adjusted Revenue
% Growth Active Accounts
$8,500
5%
$8,000
4%
$ Millions
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
$7,000
$6,500
-2%
-3%
$7,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E
-4%
Source: Analyst Reports, Internal Estimates, WEFA
$6,000
3Q99
4Q99
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
0
Jan-97
Feb-97
Mar-97
Apr-97
May-97
Jun-97
Jul-97
Aug-97
Sep-97
Oct-97
Nov-97
Dec-97
Jan-98
Feb-98
Mar-98
Apr-98
May-98
Jun-98
Jul-98
Aug-98
Sep-98
Oct-98
Nov-98
Dec-98
Jan-99
Feb-99
Mar-99
Apr-99
May-99
Jun-99
Jul-99
Aug-99
Sep-99
Oct-99
Nov-99
Dec-99
Jan-00
Feb-00
Mar-00
Apr-00
May-00
Jun-00
Jul-00
Aug-00
Sep-00
Oct-00
Nov-00
Dec-00
Jan-01
Feb-01
Mar-01
Apr-01
May-01
Jun-01
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Mail Volume in Millions
Industry Direct Mail Volume
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Oct-01
Jul-01
Apr-01
Jan-01
Oct-00
Jul-00
Apr-00
Jan-00
Oct-99
Jul-99
Apr-99
Jan-99
Oct-98
Jul-98
Apr-98
500
Jan-98
Oct-97
Jul-97
Apr-97
Jan-97
Mail Volume in Millions
Intense Marketing
Direct Mail Volume 1997 - 2001
400
300
200
100
0
Another way to show an idea
Market Penetration of ABC Drug
My company
XYZ company
doctors
LMNOP company
psychiatrists
vets
dentists
Differentiation is Critical
Capital one Advertising Spending and Account Growth
45,000,000
Competitors are spending money
on their brands to enhance
customer receptivity to their
products.
70,000
40,000,000
60,000
35,000,000
50,000
25,000,000
40,000
20,000,000
30,000
15,000,000
20,000
10,000,000
10,000
5,000,000
0
0
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01
Gross Account Growth
Advertising Spending
Source: Competitive Media Reports
$ Thousands
Gross Accounts
30,000,000
There is a direct correlation
between those competitors who
have been adding more accounts
and those who have been
spending on their brands.
There is also a direct correlation
between low prices and account
growth.
Innovation is a Market Force
High
CapOne Amex
Citi
Low
Customer
Focus
Fleet
FUSA
Chase
High
MBNA
Low
Innovation
Focus
Our competition is out-innovating
us; however, there is still a
distinct lack of innovation within
the industry as a whole.
There is opportunity to bring
something new to the market, a
revolutionizing product that will
change the landscape of the
industry.
The Lifecycle of a Commodity
The industry has reached a point of commoditization, all competitors will
have to move from price based strategies toward service oriented,
customer focused, differentiated products.
You are here.
Increase
Value
Build Brand
Refocus on
Service
Alliances
are Formed
Consolidation
Begins
Prices Drop
Life Cycle of
Near-Commodity
Industry
8. Place Value on Insight;
Back this up with Data
– Delivering insight is the ultimate goal
– Data will still be required
– The mix depends on your audience
\In"sight`\, n.
1. A sight or view of the interior of anything; a deep inspection
or view; introspection; -- frequently used with into.
2. Power of acute observation and deduction; penetration;
discernment; perception.
Insight or Data ?
• Sometimes down to personalities, and
what people feel comfortable with…
DATA
“Tell me what
you know..”
“Give me the hard
data….I’ll draw my
own conclusions…”
INSIGHT
“Tell me what
you think…”
“I don’t have time to
sort through any
data…just tell me what
it means…”
Insight or Data ?
• Fact: Some of your audience will value the data over your
take on it
– Especially if they do not have full confidence in your grasp of the
subject/situation
– Some managers simply relate better to number-crunching
• Overcome this by
–
–
–
–
Thoroughly researching your subject
Having the data to hand
Anticipating and openly welcoming questions
Justifying assumptions
9. Present Your Research Yourself
Presenting your findings in person has the highest impact
because:
– It lends itself to discussion, which actually facilitates
decision making
– It makes the intelligence real
• It is no longer just words on a paper
– You can get immediate reaction
• You can pursue follow up questions
• You can derive follow up questions from the
discussion
Keys to Presenting
• “I have the right to be here and say this…”
• Take the time you need to facilitate discussion
• Concentrate attention on WHY and HOW, not
on what, where, when and who.
• Be an internal consultant, project an
“entrepreneurial” mindset, evolve into a
“trusted advisor” to one’s clients.
If you can’t present in person…
• Know the culture of you organization
– E-mail
– Voice mail
– Intranet
– Paper
• Ask your client how they want the information
• Give clear contact details with suggestions for future
discussion forums
10. Follow-Up
• Critical feedback
• Be positive about this
• Question & learn from your ‘clients’
• Value feedback
• What actions (direct/indirect) resulted from your work?
• What decisions were made?
• RoI
• Find out if it is possible to put a tangible benefit to your
work
• Has there been any financial or strategic benefit?
• Map and document this against the cost of your project
10 Step Plan
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Expect Respect
Determine Objectives & Hidden Agendas
Scope the Project
Become the Expert in your Subject
Tailor the Report to the Objectives
Summarise the Recommendations First
Make it Look Compelling
Place Value on Insight; Back it up with Data
Present Your Research Yourself
Follow-up – What Actions Resulted, RoI
Contact Details
Arik Johnson
arik.johnson@aurorawdc.com
Aurora WDC
+01.715.720.1616