BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
UNIQUE TOOLS FOR IMPROVING
EDUCATION, MITIGATION,
MONITORING, AND ADAPTATION FOR
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
MEDITERRANEAN REGION
• MEDITERRANEAN REGION
• EUROPE
• NORTH AMERICA
• SOUTH AMERICA
• CARIBBEAN BASIN
• OCEANIA
• ASIA
 RUSSIA
 INDIA
 CHINA
 SOUTHEAST ASIA
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
DROUGHTS
EARTHQUAKES
FLOODS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
WILDFIRES
LANDSLIDES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TSUNAMIS
GCC AND NATURAL HAZARDS
ATMOSPHERIC
GEOLOGIC
HYDROLOGIC
HURRICANES/
TYPHOONS
EARTHQUAKES
FLOODS
GLOBAL
CLIMATE
CHANGE
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
DROUGHT
\LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
TSUNAMIS
LANDSLIDES
THE DILEMNA OF
DISASTER SCENARIOS
FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE OCCURS AT THE
LOCAL LEVEL
WHERE, BROAD BRUSH
STROKES ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN
THE ISSUE:
WERE RECENT UNUSUALLY SEVERE
PHYSICAL EFFECTS EXACERBATED BY
SOME OF MAN’S PAST ACTIONS, OR
WERE THEY INDEPENDENT OF MAN
AND EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE?
WAS THE WINTER OF 2008
UNUSUAL?
VERY COLD IN CHINA
VERY COLD IN NEW YORK
SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN
VERY WARM IN SWEDEN
VERY WARM IN NORWAY
VERY WARM IN ENGLAND
SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN:
JANUARY; 2008
WARM IN TYNEMOUTH, UK:
FEBRUARY 2008
NO ICE IN NORWAY:
JANUARY 2008
VERY COLD IN GUANGZHOU,
CHINA: JANUARY 2008
STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN:
WARMEST SINCE 1755
VERY COLD IN NEW YORK:
FEBRUARY 2008
PART 1:
WHAT IS THE CURRENT
THINKING ON GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE?
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS
(Typical Climates Norms
Replaced by Hotter Norms)
Based on a research report published
by the
University of Hawaii at Manoa
October 2013
GLOBAL HOT SPOTS
• Global temperatures at
Locations worldwide will
exceed historic norms as soon
as 2020, … and no later than
2069
EXAMPLES
• 2020 IN
MANOKWARI,
INDONESIA
• 2023 IN
KINGSTON,
JAMAICA
• 2029 IN LAGOS,
NIGERIA
• 2047 IN
WASHINGTON,
DC
IMPACTS
• Locations in the tropics will
experience the earliest
emergence of the new climate
norms
PART 2:
WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT
GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE?
RISK ASSESSMENT
•MONITORING
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
YOUR
COMMUNITY
POLICY TOOLS FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•EDUCATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EM RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
BUILDING A CULTURE OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITY
GLOBAL
CLIMATE
CHANGE
• EXPOSURE
NATURAL
HAZARDS
• EVENT
• COST
EXPECTED
LOSS
• BENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCES
POLICY ASSESSMENT
POLICY
ADOPTION
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE
POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
IF THE PREDICTIONS ARE RIGHT, WE WILL BE
LIVING WITH THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES
ANTICIPATE YOUR RISK
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
• GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE WAS
ONLY DISCUSSED
IN A HYPOTHETICAL WAY
FOR MANY YEARS.
• If CONSIDERED AS
A THREAT, IT WAS
A THREAT FOR
THE DISTANT
FUTURE.
• GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE IS
INCREASINGLY
BEING REGARDED
AS A FACT, …
• WHICH IMPLIES
SERIOUS RISKS
THAT PRESENT
AND FUTURE GENERATIONS ALIKE
WILL HAVE TO
FACE.
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
• MITIGATION
ADDRESSES THE
“FRONT END” OF THE
GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE PROBLEM.
• IT INCLUDES ACTIONS
THAT WILL PREVENT
(OR REDUCE) THE
RELEASE OF EXCESS
CO2 EMMISIONS.
• ADAPTATION
ADDRESSES THE
“BACK END” OF THE
PROBLEM.
• IT INCLUDES ACTIONS
THAT WILL SAFEGUARD A PERSON, A
COMMUNITY, A
BUSINESS, OR A
NATION AS THEY LIVE
WITH THE LIKELY
IMPACTS.
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• ADAPTATION IS REQUIRED BECAUSE
WE CAN NOT TURN OFF THE
MOMENTUM OF ADVERSE IMPACTS
OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN A
SHORT TIME.
• CARBON DIOXIDE REMAINS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR DECADES, AND
• OCEANS STORE HEAT FOR
CENTURIES.
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• MANY COUNTRIES ARE NOW MAKING
LARGE INVESTMENTS IN MITIGATION AND
ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION ACTIONS.
• LEADERS RECOGNIIZE THAT THE EFFECTS
OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE THE RISKS FOR PEOPLE,
BUSINESSES, AND COMMUNITIES LIVING IN
OR LOCATED IN COASTAL AREAS OR IN
RIVER FLOODPLAINS.
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• AFTER 800 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE
BATTLING THE NORTH SEA, THE
NETHERLANDS HAS NOW CREATED
SOME OF THE STRONGEST FLOOD
DEFENSES IN THE WORLD.
• PRESENT RIVER DEFENSES PROVIDE
1-IN -250 YEARS PROTECTION
LEVELS.
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING, A
PART OF THE DELTA WORKS DAMS,
DEFENDS AGAINST THE NORTH SEA.
• THEY ARE NOW BEING MADE
STRONGER TO PROVIDE 1-IN-100,000
YEARS PROTECTION INSTEAD OF
1-IN-10,000 YEARS PROTECTION.
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE DUTCH ARE ALSO REVISING
TRADITIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT
THINKING.
• IN ADDITION TO CONTAINING THE
FLOOD WATERS, THEY WILL ALLOW
CERTAIN DESIGNAGTED LOCATIONS
TO BE FLOODED.
• THIS STRATEGY IS CALLED, “LIVING
WITH WATER.”
THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING:
THE NETHERLANDS
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE NETHERLANDS WILL COMMIT
ABOUT $1.3 BILLION ANNUALLY TO
INCREASE FLOOD PROTECTION
LEVELS.
• THIS INVESTMENT IS EQUAL TO
ABOUT 0.2 PERCENT OF THE
NETHERLAND’S GDP.
BRITAIN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE BRITISH ARE IMPROVING AND
EXTENDING THE “THAMES BARRIER,” A
SET OF FLOODGATES ACROSS THE
THAMES RIVER.
• WHEN THE BARRIER IS CLOSED (ABOUT 10
TIMES A YEAR) IT PROVIDES 1-IN-2,000
YEARS PROTECTION OF LONDON FROM
FLOODING CAUSED BY OCEAN SURGES
DURING STORMS.
LONDON, ENGLAND
THAMES RIVER BARRIER
DURING STORM
BRITAIN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE PREDICTED RISE IN SEA LEVEL
BY 2030 IS EXPECTED TO REQUIRE
AN INCREASE IN PROTECTION ALONG
THE THAMES TO 1-IN-1,000 YEARS.
• THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED AND UPGRADED BY 2100.
TOKYO: ANTICIPATES MORE WATER
THAN USUAL IN THE FUTURE
JAPAN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• JAPAN IS ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE
WATER FROM RISING SEA LEVEL, OCEAN
STORM SURGES, TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP,
AND EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FROM
TYPHOONS.
• ITS 12-YEAR-OLD “G-CANS PROJECT” HAS
CREATED A MASSIVE UNDERGROUND
CONCRETE “RIVER SYSTEM” IN
NORTHWEST TOKYO TO FACILITATE
REMOVAL OF EXCESS WATER FROM
TOKYO’S STREETS.
G-CANS: THE WORLD’S LARGEST
UNDERGROUND “RIVER” SYSTEM
JAPAN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• JAPAN HAS INSTALLED
UNDERGROUND PUMPS THAT CAN
PUMP 100 TONS OF WATER PER
SECOND OUT OF RIVERS AND INTO
THE HARBOR TO PREVENT FLOODING
OF CTY STREETS.
• THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY
CONSIDERED TO BE OPERATING AT
FULL CAPACITY NOW.
BANGLADESH:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• BANGLADESH, ONE OF THE MOST
VULNERABLE PLACES ON EARTH TO
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, NOW
REQUIRES USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
MODELS IN ALL FUTURE PLANNING AND
DECISIONS.
• IT HAS BEGUN SWITCHING LAND USE
FROM RICE FARMING TO PRAWN FARMING
IN LOCATIONS WHRE SALT WATER IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW MOVING INLAND.
BANGLADESH:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• BUT, BEING ONE OF THE POOREST
COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, BANGLADESH
CAN NOT AFFORD THE INVESTMENTS
REQUIRED FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES
NOW UNDERWAY IN MANY INDUSTRALIZED
COUNTRIES.
• IT NEEDS INTERNATIONAL AID, WHICH IS
NOT NOW AS AVAILABLE AS IN THE PAST.
GREATER NEW ORLEANS, LA:
ONLY 300,000 AFTER KATRINA
NEW ORLEANS: ANTICIPATES HURRICANES
EVEN WORSE THAN KATRINA
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• ADAPTATION IS NOW ON THE
AMERICAN AGENDA BECAUSE OF
HURRICANE KATRINA AND ITS
IMPACT ON NEW ORLEANS AND THE
GULF COAST.
• NEW ORLEANS HAS BECOME A
LABORATORY FOR SCIENCE,
TECHNOLOGY, HAZARD INSURANCE,
AND PUBLIC POLICY.
NEW ORLEANS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM ONLY
PROVIDES 1-IN-100 YEARS
PROTECTION NOW.
• 122 LEVEES IN THE SYSTEM ARE NOW
CONSIDERED TO BE INADEQUATE
FOR THE INCREASED SEVERITY OF
WIND FIELDS AND STORM SURGES
EXPECTED IN FUTURE HURRICANES.
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH,” A THREELAYERED SYSTEM, HAS BEEN
DEVISED TO PROTECT NEW
ORLEANS.
• EACH LAYER ACTS LIKE A SPEED
BUMP TO ABSORB AND REDUCE THE
ENERGY AND DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS
OF THE SEVERE WINDSTORM.
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH:
• THE INNER LAYER CONSISTS OF
HARDENED LEVEES AND FLOOD
WALLS.
• THE MIDDLE LAYER IS A LARGE
EXPANSE OF WETLANDS.
• THE THIRD LAYER IS THE BARRIER
ISLANDS THAT MUST BE TRAVERSED
BEFORE LANDFALL.
HARDENED LEVEE SYSTEM: