Supported Employment Counselors
2011 Statewide Training
Edgefield Blackberry Hall
Troutdale OR
Presenter
Malcolm G Boswell, Workforce Analyst
WorkSource Portland Metro East
Employment Department
July 2011
The Economy
The economy is a living, breathing system that
mimics human nature, meaning it is not a robot, or a
computer that follows a certain program. It doesn’t
always follow the models and certainly does not
subscribe to the saying “All things being equal”.
It usually reacts to the general sentiment and whims
of the population.
Recessions
• Recessions are a common part of any economy, they
happen quite frequently and at relatively regular
intervals.
• It is a time of change, “out with the old, in with the
new” that varies in intensity depending on the nature
of the recession.
• Recessions are regularly measured by the economic
productivity (GDP). However, employment is an
indicator that is gaining weight in estimating the
beginning and ending of a recession.
2003
2001
2000
1998
1997
1995
1994
1992
1991
1989
1988
1986
1985
1983
1982
1980
1979
1977
1976
1974
1973
1971
1970
1968
1967
1965
1964
1962
1961
1959
1958
1956
1955
1953
1952
1950
1949
1947
1946
Employment Trend 1946 - 2003 (000's)
140000
United States
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
How long do recessions last?
Recessions are measured from peak economic growth to the
trough (lowest point of economic downturn). The current
recession is nearing 19 months but may be revised.
The average duration
of recessions between
1945 and 2003
10 Months
The average duration
of recessions between
1919 and 1945
17 Months
The average duration
of recessions prior to
1919
22 Months
Last three recessions were characterized by their
“Jobless Recovery”
Causes of jobless recovery?
According to Lisa Smith who based her article on Jobless Recovery: The
new normal, Yahoo Finance (Nov. 1, 2010), on Economist Nick Perna’s first
studies on what he coined the Jobless recovery, some of the most
significant causes for this new normal include:
•Structural changes in the US Economy
•Globalization
•Executive Compensation
•Consumers desire for lower cost goods
•Changes in technology and labor productivity
The demand for skills changes over time!
Causes of change include:
•
•
•
•
Changes in technology
Changes in business strategies
Changes in the economy
Changes in consumer expectations
Uemployed Americans Find Old Jobs Require New Skills
by Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, for Manufacturing Business Technology
October 11, 2010
“The jobs crisis has brought an unwelcome discovery for many
unemployed Americans: Job openings in their old fields exist. Yet they
no longer qualify for them. (emphasis added)
They're running into a trend that took root during the recession. Companies
became more productive by doing more with fewer workers. Some asked
staffers to take on a broader array of duties — duties that used to be spread
among multiple jobs. Now, someone who hopes to get those jobs must meet
the new requirements.
As a result, some database administrators now have to manage network
security.
Accountants must do financial analysis to find ways to cut costs.
Factory assembly workers need to program computers to run machinery.”
Skill gap as a result of changes in technology
Typist
Word Processor
Computer Operator
Secretary
Clerk
Secretary
Secretary
Admin Assistant
Admin Assistant
Web Designer
Secretary
Typewriter
Word
Processor
•Typing Speed
•Typing Speed
•Accuracy
/ Grammar
•Accuracy/Grammar
•Use word
processing software
•Operate printer
Computer
Internet
•Use word
processing software
•Use word
processing software
•Use spreadsheet
software
•Use spreadsheet
software
•Use desktop
publishing
•Use desktop
publishing
•Operate printer &
peripherals
•Use web page
design software
•Use E-mail
•Use Internet
•Operate printer &
peripherals
Skill gap as a result of re-organization
(Business Strategies)
Position 1
Secretary 2
F1a
F1b
F1d
F1e
F1c
Position 2
Secretary 1
Position 3
Secretary 3
F2a
F2m
F2n
F3a
F2p
F2q
F2r
F3s
F3c
F3t
Position 3.a
Admin Clerk
Position 4
Exec Assistant
F1a
F1b
F1c
F3a
F3c
F1d
F1e
F2p
F3s
F2m
F2n
F2q
F2r
F3t
Green Skills
The New Value Added Skills
Key Finding: Oregon has roughly 50,000
green jobs.
• 51,402 green jobs in 2008, spread across...
• 5,025 employers
• all major industry groups
• 226 different occupations
• Represents about 3 percent of the employment in the
private sector and state and local government
• To give perspective … this is roughly the same as the
number of employees working in Oregon’s private
hospitals.
Construction, wholesale and retail trade, and
administrative and waste services account for about
half of Oregon’s green jobs.
Industry
Construction
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Administrative and Waste Services
Natural Resources and Mining
Professional and Technical Services
State and Local Government
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Educational and Health Services
Transportation and Warehousing
Utilities
Information
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Financial Activities
Total
Green
Jobs
8,676
8,315
7,074
5,762
5,411
5,063
4,228
2,260
1,555
1,353
573
403
354
252
123
51,402
Portion of All
Green Jobs
17%
16%
14%
11%
11%
10%
8%
4%
3%
3%
1%
Less Than 1%
Less Than 1%
Less Than 1%
Less Than 1%
100%
Key Finding: Many green jobs are in blue collar occupations.
Occupational Group
Construction and Extraction
Production
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Transportation and Material Moving
Architecture and Engineering
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Building and Grounds Cleaning and
Maintenance
Sales and Related
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Management
Office and Administrative Support
Protective Service
Education, Training, and Library
Business and Financial Operations
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and
Media
Other
Total
Green
Jobs
10,381
6,512
5,838
5,255
4,360
4,135
Portion of All
Green Jobs
20%
13%
11%
10%
8%
8%
2,877
6%
2,437
2,233
1,639
1,570
1,032
790
683
513
5%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
480
1%
667
51,402
1%
100%
Green wage levels are spread across a wide
spectrum, just like wages of all jobs.
Percent of Green Jobs by Wage Group
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Under
$10.00
$10.00 $14.99
$15.00 $19.99
$20.00 $24.99
Hourly Wage
$25.00 $29.99
$30.00 $49.99
$50.00 or
more
Key Finding: Two-thirds of green jobs require no
education beyond high school.
Green Jobs by Minimum Education Level Oregon, 2008
Other
4%
No Requirement
32%
Bachelor's or
Graduate
18%
Associate Degree
7%
Some College
7%
Where the Minimum Education Level was specified
High School
Graduate
32%
So, where are we now?
Brief Overview of today’s economy
Oregon unemployment has fallen more than
2 percentage points since the peak of 11.6% in 2009,
but still sits above the U.S. rate.
Oregon’s May
Unemployment Rate
In 2011: 9.3%
In 2010: 10.9%
In 2009: 11.6%
In 2008: 5.7%
This recession’s unemployment rate peaked at 11.6% in
Oregon, slightly below the 12.1% of the early ‘80s.
Oregon Unemployment Rate Typically Higher Than U.S.
(Bars Represent NBER Recessions)
Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
14.0
12.1% in December 1982
and January 1983
11.6% in May
and June 2009
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1979
1984
1989
Oregon
1994
1999
United States
Source: Oregon Employment Department and National Bureau of Economic Research
2004
2009
The unemployment rates in rural areas is still well
above urban areas.
Oregon Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates
14.0
12.0
Non-Metro
Bend, Corvallis, Euguene, Medford and Salem
Portland
Percent of Labor Force
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Jan-90
Sep-92
May-95
Jan-98
Sep-00
May-03
Jan-06
Sep-08
May-11
Similar to the trend in unemployment rates, the
number of unemployed persons is declining.
Unemployed Persons, Oregon Statewide, Seasonally Adjusted
1999 to Present
250,000
Oregon’s May
Unemployed Count:
200,000
In 2011: 185,540
In 2010: 216,162
In 2009: 231,821
150,000
100,000
50,000
Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
In 2008: 110,601
Note: this decrease
has nothing to do with
individuals exhausting
their unemployment
insurance benefits.
Nearly 200,000 unemployed Oregonians is
certainly nothing to celebrate.
Oregon Total Unemployment
Not Seasonally Adjusted
260,000
March 2009's 243,357 unemployed
was the all-time record for Oregon.
210,000
160,000
110,000
60,000
Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09
179,201
Only 28,500 below
year-ago levels.
Factors: steady inmigration; re-entrants
to labor market; labor
force growing faster
than employment.
Note: this decrease
has nothing to do with
individuals exhausting
their unemployment
insurance benefits.
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Eastern Oregon (Regions 12, 13 and 14) Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
100,000
14.0%
90,000
12.0%
80,000
10.0%
70,000
60,000
8.0%
50,000
40,000
Between 2007 and 2010 the Eastern Oregon (Regions 12, 13 and 14) area saw its labor force grow by 6.3%
while losing 3.5% of its jobs.
30,000
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 5% while its number of jobs remained virtually
unchanged
20,000
Eastern Oregon Labor Force
10,000
6.0%
4.0%
Covered Employment (Reported Jobs)
2.0%
Eastern Oregon Unemployment Rate
-
0.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
* 2010 Data is Preliminary
Source: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Willamette Valley / I - 5 Corridor (Regions 2, 3, 5, 15 plus Linn, Benton and Columbia Counties)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
1,600,000
12.0%
1,400,000
10.0%
1,200,000
8.0%
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
6.0%
Between 2007 and 2010 the Willamette Valey / I - 5 Corridor (Regions 2, 3, 5, 15 plus Benton, Columbia &
Linn Counties) Area saw its labor force grow by 3.6% while reporting a decline of 7% of its jobs.
4.0%
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 7.7% and lost just under 1% of its jobs.
2.0%
Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor Labor Force
Covered Employment (Reported Jobs) WV/I-5
Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor Unemployment Rate
200,000
-
0.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
* 2010 Data is Preliminary
Source: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook Counties)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
120,000
14.0%
12.0%
100,000
10.0%
80,000
8.0%
60,000
Between 2007 and 2010 the Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook Counties) area saw its
labor force grow by almost 4% while losing nearly 7% of its jobs.
40,000
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 11% and added 3.5% more jobs.
4.0%
Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook) Labor Force
20,000
6.0%
2.0%
Covered Employment (Reported Jobs) Oregon Coast
Oregon Coast Unemployment Rate
-
0.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
* 2010 Data is Preliminary
Source: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Central Oregon (Regions 9 & 10)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
160,000
16.0%
140,000
14.0%
120,000
12.0%
100,000
10.0%
80,000
8.0%
60,000
6.0%
Between 2007 and 2010 the Central Oregon (Regions 9 & 10) area saw its labor force grow by 1.5% while losing over
11% of its jobs.
40,000
4.0%
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 21% while adding 10% more jobs.
Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10) Labor Force
Covered Employment (Reported Jobs) Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10)
Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10) Unemployment Rate
20,000
2.0%
-
0.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
* 2010 Data is Preliminary
Source: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11)
Trend Analysis 2001-2010*
250,000
16.0%
14.0%
200,000
12.0%
10.0%
150,000
8.0%
100,000
Between 2007 and 2010 the Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) area saw its labor force grow by just under 1%
while losing nearly 11% of its jobs.
6.0%
Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 7.5% and lost 2.1% of its jobs. Most of them during the recession.
4.0%
50,000
Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) Labor Force
Covered Employment (Reported Jobs) Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11)
Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) Unemployment Rate
2.0%
-
0.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
* 2010 Data is Preliminary
Source: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls
Survey data make it clear the “additional”
unemployed came from layoffs, which have slowed.
Oregon CPS Unemployment by Reason [Trend]
160,000
140,000
Entrants
Job Leavers
120,000
Job Losers
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
How to help the long-term unemployed is one
of the biggest challenges we face.
Oregon CPS Duration of Unemployment [Trend], in weeks
80,000
70,000
60,000
Less than 5 weeks
5 to 14 weeks
15 to 26 weeks
27 to 51 weeks
52 weeks or more
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Types of Unemployment
10
Cyclical Unemployment
9
Seasonal Unemployment
8
7
Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rates
means that we remove
the seasonal ups and
downs by removing the
average annual
increases / decreases
common to the season
from the data.
6
Full Employment
5
4
Frictional Unemployment
3
2
1
Structural Unemployment
Ja
nM 97
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Se 97
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Ja 7
nM 98
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Se 98
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Ja 8
nM 99
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Se 99
p9
Ja 9
n0
M 0
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Se 00
p0
Ja 0
nM 01
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Se 01
p0
Ja 1
nM 02
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Se 02
p0
Ja 2
nM 03
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Se 03
p0
Ja 3
nM 04
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Se 04
p0
Ja 4
n0
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Se 05
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Ja 5
nM 06
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Se 06
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Ja 6
nM 07
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p07
0
Currently, two in five unemployed Oregonians has
been jobless for 27 weeks or longer.
250,000
The long-term unemployed:
74,000 Oregonians in May 2011
Incidence of Unemployment, Oregon Statewide
45 percent of unemployed population
200,000
Long-term
unemployment trend
since 2002:
Unemployed 27
weeks or longer
Fewest: 10,800 in
January 2007
150,000
Peaked: 101,200 in
June 2010
100,000
Current: 74,000 in May
2011
Unemployed 26 weeks or less
50,000
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics
0
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Some employers may be hesitant to hire applicants
who are unemployed…
During the annual conference of the Oregon Employer Council, attendees were
asked what reasons, if any, might prevent them from hiring the long-term
unemployed. Responses included:
•The long-term unemployed may have a bad attitude and/or lack motivation.
•They may lack interview skills and/or do not properly prepare for an
interview.
•In some cases, the laid-off “weren’t the cream of the crop” to begin with.
•Their skills may have become stale.
•In some cases, they lack soft skills, i.e. time management, self-confidence,
acting as a team player.
…but job seekers can address some of those
concerns.
The majority of employers said they would consider hiring the long-term
unemployed if they …
• … have the skill set to fill the position.
• … were doing something productive - volunteering, attending school,
homemaking - during their period of unemployment
•(It was noted that it’s very important the long-term unemployed note
these activities on their resume; otherwise, they don’t get to the
interview and don’t have the opportunity to describe what they’ve done)
• … have a reasonable reason as to why they’ve been unemployed.
Reducing the unemployment rate?
Oregon's Unemployment Under Various Employment Growth Scenarios
Steady Unemployment Rate
OEA Forecast, May 2011
11.0%
10.5%
10.0%
Unemployment Rate
+ 1,500 jobs per month
9.6 Percent
9.5%
Based on OEA
population projections
and current labor force
participation rate:
Steady: Average of +1,500
jobs per month keeps rate at
9.6%
Decline: Need to average
+3,500 per month to reach
6.6% by 2015.
9.0%
8.5%
+ 3,500 jobs per month
Current: Average of +4,100
per month between October
2010 and April 2011
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.6 Percent
6.5%
6.0%
Apr. July
2011
Jan.
2012
July
Jan.
2013
July
Source: Oregon Employment Department using May OEA Economic and Revenue Forecast
Jan.
2014
July
Note: changes in the rate of
Baby Boomer retirements, inmigration to Oregon, and
labor force participation have
effects on these scenarios.
Jan.
2015
Men experienced a more dramatic increase in
unemployment than women in recent years.
Average Annual Unemployment Rates by Gender
Oregon, 1999-2010
16%
Men
12%
Women
8%
4%
Source: Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/lau
0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Unemployment also varies by age groups, especially
for relatively young workers.
Average Annual Unemployment by Age Category
Oregon, 1999-2010
25%
16 to 24 years
25 to 54 years
55 years and over
Total population
20%
15%
10%
5%
Source: Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/lau
0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Unemployment Below 10% in 20 of Oregon's 36 Counties
May 2011, Seasonally Adjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
unemployment
rates vary from
Gilliam County’s
5.6% to Crook
County’s 15.1%.
Twenty of Oregon’s
36 counties have
rates below 10.0%.
Unemployment Rates
5.6% to 7.9%
8.0% to 9.9%
10.0% to 11.9%
12.0% to 15.1%
Oregon Unemployment: Ten Highest / Lowest County Rates
Crook
Harney
Grant
Douglas
Jefferson
Lake
Josephine
Deschutes
Klamath
Wallowa
Clackamas
Wasco
Polk
Multnomah
Clatsop
May 2011
Morrow
Washington
Hood River
Benton
Gilliam
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Total employment has also shown some growth …
Up by 55,600 since the
most recent low in
October 2009.
Includes farm jobs,
self-employed, based
on place of residence
… so includes
Oregonians who work
in Washington or
elsewhere.
The strong job growth seen this winter has slowed.
From September to
March:
Oregon's Monthly Job Growth/Decline
seasonally adjusted
Private sector: +28,700
15,000
Recession of Dec. 2007 - June 2009
Employment loss started March 2008
10,000
Strongest monthly
growth since 1996!
Government:
Average monthly
nonfarm employment
gain: +4,300 jobs
5,000
Employment Low Point
December 2009
From March to May:
0
Private sector: +2,700
-5,000
Government:
-10,000
-300
Average monthly
nonfarm employment
gain: +100 jobs
-15,000
-20,000
Jan-07
+500
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
For the eight month in a row, Oregon has more jobs
today than it did a year ago.
Oregon's Year-Over-Year Job Growth/Decline
seasonally adjusted
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
-100,000
-120,000
-140,000
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
The last few months have included some decent news.
But … we have to keep things in perspective. It’s a long
climb back.
Manufacturing and construction
have led Oregon's job losses.
0
-5,000
-10.5%
-11.7%
-10,000
-10.6%
Jobs Lost....
-15,000
-10.6%
-6.8%
-13.5%
-7.2%
-20,000
-25,000
Job losses from each industry's post2001 recession peak to May 2011.
-30,000
-35,000
-34.3%
-40,000
-19.5%
-45,000
More ads now than any month since recession start.
The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data Series
(Seasonally Adjusted)
Help Wanted Online Ads (in thousands)
Oregon - Total Ads
Oregon - New Ads
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
January 2008 - May 2011
Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted
OnLineTM
(HWOL)
Oregon’s job postings tend to mirror national trends.
The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data Series
Total Ads Index (December 2007 = 100)
Help Wanted Online Ads Index
120
100
80
60
US Index
40
OR Index
20
0
December 2007 - May 2011
Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted
OnLineTM
(HWOL)
December 2009 was the recessionary employment trough,
but there wasn’t much growth until October 2010.
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Total Nonfarm Payroll: 1990 - 2011
1,800,000
Employment
1,600,000
Employment down 113,900 (-6.5%) from
peak in February 2008.
1,400,000
Employment low point was December 2009.
Employment now up 34,200 since then.
1,200,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
The private sector shed more than 150,000 jobs during this
recession. It’s added jobs in six of the last seven months and
we’ve now gained back 34,500.
Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon
Total Private Sector: 1990 - 2011
1,500,000
Employment
1,400,000
1,300,000
1,200,000
Private sector employment now 34,500 above the
December 2009 recessionary low of 1,293,100.
1,100,000
1,000,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Average Weekly Hours of All Private Employees
Oregon, January 2007 - May 2011
35.5
35.0
34.5
34.0
33.5
Year-over-Year Change in Average Weekly Hours
Oregon, All Private Employees
33.0
32.5
32.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
31.5
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11
0.5
Source: Current Employment Statistics, Oregon Employment Department
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
Source: Current Employment Statistics, Oregon Employment Department
The year-over-year picture in the private sector is a lot
more positive than it’s been in a while …
Oregon Nonmanufacturing Employment in May 2011
Comparison with One Year Ago
Mining and logging
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Federal government
State government
Local government
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
We’ve tended to grow faster than the US in the good times, but lose
more jobs (relative to our size) in the tough times.
Oregon and US Employment Trends*
2003 to Current: US Trend Indexed to July 2003
1,750,000
1,700,000
1,650,000
Oregon
1,600,000
U.S. Trend
1,550,000
1,500,000
2003
* Seasonally Adjusted
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Where do we go from here? Job losses generally ended – in a “net”
sense – in the fourth quarter of 2009. But we don’t regain prerecession employment levels until the 1st quarter of 2014.
Moving Beyond Recession … Oregon Total Employment
2,000
We are here
1,900
Employment (Thousands)
1,800
1,700
1st Quarter
2014
1,600
4th Quarter
2009
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
Source: Office of Economic Analysis,
Department of Administrative Services
May 2011
1,100
1,000
1990:1
1992:1
1994:1
1996:1
1998:1
2000:1
2002:1
2004:1
2006:1
2008:1 2010:1
2012:1
2014:1
2016:1
Moving Beyond Recession … Industry by Industry
350
We are here
Government
Employment (Thousands)
300
Educational and Health
Services
250
Professional and
Business Services
Retail Trade
200
Manufacuturing
Leisure and Hospitality
150
100
50
Financial Activities
Source: Office of Economic
Analysis, Department of
Administrative Services
May 2011
Moving Beyond Recession … Industry by Industry
120
We are here
Employment (Thousands)
100
Construction
Wholesale Trade
80
60
Other Services
Transp, Warehouse,
Utilities
40
Information
20
Mining and Logging
0
Source: Office of Economic
Analysis, Department of
Administrative Services
May 2011
Forecast calls for slow but steady growth.
Oregon Nonfarm Employment
Quarterly Change
35,000
Projected
(2nd quarter 2011
forward)
25,000
15,000
5,000
-5,000
-15,000
1990-1991
Recession
2001-2003
Recession
-25,000
-35,000
-45,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Source: Office of Economic Analysis, May 2011 forecast.
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Job growth is expected in most industries…
Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector Over The Year
(1Q 2011 - 1Q 2012)
Prof essional and Business Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Financial Activities
Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
Metals and Machinery
Inf ormation
Other Services
Construction
Educational Services
Transportation Equipment
Computer and Electronics
Other Nondurables
Wood Products
Natural Resources and Mining
Other Durables
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
-6,000
Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, May 2011
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
…but it won’t cover those lost in the recession.
Real and Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector
Sorted by Net Job Change
Jobs Lost Since Start of Recession*
(1Q 2008 - 1Q 2011)
Job Change This Year
(1Q 2011 - 1Q 2012)
Health Care and Social Assistance
State Government
Educational Services
Prof essional and Business Services
Inf ormation
Other Services
Federal Government
Natural Resources and Mining
Leisure and Hospitality
Computer and Electronics
Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
Metals and Machinery
Wholesale Trade
Other Durables
Other Nondurables
Transportation Equipment
Local Government
Financial Activities
Wood Products
Retail Trade
Construction
* Industries that added jobs are set to zero. -40,000
Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, May 2011
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
Oregon’s Current Rankings: May 2011
Unemployment and Nonfarm Payroll Growth: All 50 States and D.C.
May 2011
14%
The blue field shows the range
of rates for all 50 states and the
District of Columbia.
12%
Oregon's ranking
10%
16th
8%
Unemployment Rates:
Highest: Nevada (12.1%)
Lowest: North Dakota (3.2%)
Oregon: 9.3%
Oregon was among the top 10
states for highest unemployment
from September 2008 to April 2011.
Total Nonfarm Payroll
Employment:
6%
4%
Highest: North Dakota (3.9%)
Lowest: New Mexico (-0.8%)
2%
7th
0%
-2%
Unemployment Rate
(seasonally adjusted)
Year/Year
Job Growth
Oregon: 1.2%
Oregon’s year-over-year nonfarm employment
growth is among the top 10 for all states.
Oregon Ranks 7th in Job Growth
Selected States, Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment
North Dakota (1st)
Texas (2nd)
Nebraska (3rd)
Oregon (7th)
Washington (17th)
California (21st)
United States
Idaho (30th)
Nevada (46th)
New Mexico (51st)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Percent Job Growth, May 2010 to May 2011
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, not seasonally adjusted data.
3%
4%
Are there industries that are more
susceptible to changes in the economy?
Yes!
During an economic downturn there are a few industries
that tend to be the first impacted by economic change:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Durable goods (cars, furniture, TV’s, etc)
Financial Sector, particularly investments
Construction
Real Estate
Warehouse, distribution and freight transportation
Hospitality, particularly lodging and travel
Non-essential services (landscaping, massages, dry cleaning, etc.)
Non-essential retail (most of retail)
Are there industries that are generally more
“resistant” to economic changes?
YES!
There are a few industries that by their nature as essential
services and goods are more resistant to economic
changes:
• Healthcare
• Essential non-durable goods (Clothes, food, energy, parts, etc)
• Retail (particularly those sectors associated with essential goods or
services)
Are there industries that tend to thrive in
economic downturns?
YES!
In economic downturns, there are industries that thrive more
than in good economic times, usually because they benefit from
federal monetary policy designed to facilitate economic activity
in the form of credit, others in response to peoples desire to be
distracted from the concerns of tough economic times.
•
•
•
•
Education
Government
Maintenance and Repair
Entertainment and recreation
Are there any industries that are 100%
impervious to economic change?
NO!
Any industry is susceptible to economic changes,
even industries considered “recession resistant”.
Even “water proof” watches are only “water proof” to
certain amount of depth or length of exposure.
However!!!
There are recession resistant attitudes and
behaviors.
People who are proactive about their careers tend
to fair better than people who react to situations
as they happen.
How Do Businesses React To Changes In Unemployment?
10
9
When Unemployment is High
(over 6%)
Demand for skills goes up 
8
7
Wages offered tend to drop

IMPORTANT!
Cyclical Unemployment
A trend is a change over time. It takes
six or more months of unemployment
data to determine if it is going up or
down!
EMPLOYER’S MARKET
6
Full Employment
5
4
When Unemployment is Low
3
(over 5%)
2
Demand for skills goes down

1
Wages offered tend to go up

0
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JOB SEEKER’S MARKET
WorkSource Oregon Employment Department’s
Labor Market Information Web Site
www.qualityinfo.org
THANK YOU
MALCOLM BOSWELL
Workforce Analyst
Multnomah County
Tel (503) 666 - 1985 EXT. 309
Malcolm.G.Boswell@state.or.us