Evidence in education
Some lessons from practical policymaking
John Holman
University of York and the Wellcome
Trust
Or
The Interesting Story of the
National Curriculum for Science
Versions of the NC for Science
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1989
1991
1995
1999
2004
2006
2008
2013
Versions of the NC for Science
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1989
1991
1995
1999
2004
2006
2008
2013
Outline of my talk
• Past: 1988/ 1989 and the National Curriculum
for Science
• Present: living with the consequences of
policy (Kate Nickson)
• Future: the new National Curriculum
• Conclusion: principles for evidence-based
policymaking
• Questions and discussion
Outline of my talk
• Past: 1988/ 1989 and the National Curriculum
for Science
• Present: living with the consequences of
policy (Kate Nickson)
• Future: the new National Curriculum
• Conclusion: principles for evidence-based
policymaking
• Questions and discussion
1988
SLIDE OF ME IN 1988
Lord Baker of Dorking (Kenneth Baker)
The Education Reform Act 1988
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The National Curriculum
Local management of schools
Grant maintained schools
City Technology Colleges
Open enrolment to schools
Polytechnics removed from local authority
control
A virulent strain of National
Curriculum
• A highly specified curriculum
• A strong system of external assessment linked
to strong accountability
A virulent strain of National
Curriculum
• A highly specified curriculum
• A strong system of external assessment linked
to strong accountability
Handle with care!
The National Curriculum Science
Working Group, 1987/ 1988
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Chair: Jeff Thompson
2 - 3 academics
4 - 5 teachers (primary and secondary)
2 headteachers (primary and secondary)
2 local authority advisers
One science curriculum specialist
One industrialist
One HMI
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
But to be young was very heaven!
William Wordsworth
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
But to be young was very heaven!
William Wordsworth
‘The French Revolution, as it appeared to an
enthusiast at its commencement’
21 years
of the
Science National Curriculum
Then……
Walking the Tightrope: 1987-88
Professor Jeff Thompson CBE
Timescale
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15 May 1987: letter of invitation from Permanent
Secretary to discuss a proposed Science Working
Group membership and terms of reference
10 July 1987: formal announcement by Secretary of
State of the setting up of Science and Mathematics
Working Grops, terms of reference and membership
24 July 1987: letter from Helen Williams with
support structure and arrangements for liaison
between the WGs.
21 August 1987: more detailed guidance for
Working Groups from the Secretary of State
9 September 1987: First meeting of the NCSWG
Remit
Attainment Targets: clearly specified objectives
for what pupils should know, understand and be
able to do in terms of knowledge, skills
understanding and aptitudes. Age-related,
catering for children of different abilities and
levels of maturity
Programmes of Study: the content required to
enable pupils to reach or surpass the ATs.
Detailed description of the content, skills and
processes that all pupils need to be taught, set
within an overall or outline map of the
curriculum
Proceed from PoS to AT, developed iteratively
What are these attainment targets and
programmes of study?
I’ll know them when I see them!
Task Group on Assessment and Testing
Chaired by Paul Black (1987)
Recommended for all subjects:
• Teacher assessment moderated by …
• …. external testing (SATs)
• 10 levels of attainment
AT13 Energy
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AT13 Energy
Programme of Study
Attainment targets
Pupils should:
AT13 Energy
Programme of Study
Attainment targets
Pupils should:
Key Stage 1
Children should consider the food
they eat and why they eat them ……
Level 1 Understand they need food to
be active
Level 2
Key stage 2
Key stage 3
Key stage 4
Pupils should have the opportunity to
investigate the way energy is
transferred in a variety of contexts …
Level 3
Level 4 Know that there is a range of
fuels used to provide energy
Level 7 understand energy transfer by
conduction, convection and radiation
Level 10 be able to use the principle of
conservation of energy to explain
energy transfers
AT15 Light and electromagnetic
radiation
Programme of Study
Attainment targets
Policymakers won’t wait
• The evidence that gets used is the evidence
that’s available
STATUTORY INSTRUMENTS
1989 No. 309
EDUCATION, ENGLAND AND WALES
The Education (National Curriculum) (Attainment Targets and Programmes of
Study in Science) Order 1989
Made
3rd March 1989
Laid before Parliament
14th March 1989
Coming into force in accordance with articles 2 to 5
Whereas the National Curriculum Council, after due consultation, submitted to
the Secretary of State and published its report on a proposal to make this
Order which he had referred to it, in accordance with section 20(2) to (4) of the
Education Reform Act 1988(1);
And whereas the Secretary of State had given notice of the said proposal to
the Curriculum Council for Wales and to all other persons with whom
consultation appeared to him desirable, in accordance with section 21(2) of the
said Act;
Versions of the NC for Science
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1989 (22 attainment targets)
1991 (4 attainment targets)
1995 (slimmed by 20%)
1999
2004
2006
2008
2013
Outline of my talk
• Past: 1988/ 1989 and the National Curriculum
for Science
• Present: living with the consequences of
policy (Kate Nickson)
• Future: the new National Curriculum
• Conclusion: principles for evidence-based
policymaking
• Questions and discussion
Outline of my talk
• Past: 1988/ 1989 and the National Curriculum
for Science
• Present: living with the consequences of
policy (Kate Nickson)
• Future: the new National Curriculum
• Conclusion: principles for evidence-based
policymaking
• Questions and discussion
Michael Gove announces major review
of National Curriculum
20 January 2011
Michael Gove said:
• We have sunk in international league tables and the
National Curriculum is substandard. Meanwhile the
pace of economic and technological change is
accelerating and our children are being left behind. The
previous curriculum failed to prepare us for the future.
We must change course. Our review will examine the
best school systems in the world and give us a worldclass curriculum that will help teachers, parents and
children know what children should learn at what age.
Conversation with Tim Oates
Chair of National Curriculum Review
Expert Panel
16 September 2011
Why did you decide to use international
benchmarking as the main evidence base for
the new National Curriculum?
• When the early versions of the NC were created,
there was little international comparative data
available – now there is much, including PISA,
TIMSS and comparative studies such as those of
Robin Alexander, Andy Green and Bill Schmidt
• Other nations (eg Hong Kong) have shown the
value of international benchmarking
• Ministers favoured this approach because of
concerns that the UK is being overtaken by other
runners in the race.
Conversation with Tim Oates, 16 September 2011
If you had all the time and resources in the
world, what further evidence would you like to
collect?
• If I had more time, I would like to
– collect evidence about conceptual progression in
specific areas. Some evidence exists (for example in
optics) but it is patchy and sometimes contested (for
example in mathematics)
– Convene an international panel of policymakers and
researchers to review material as it rolls out
– Examine the overall results for curriculum coherence –
so ‘all key factors (pedagogy, assessment, teaching
capacity etc ) line up in both purpose and process’
(Schmidt)
Conversation with Tim Oates, 16 September 2011
The ‘gold standard’ of evidence in educational
research is said to be the randomised control trial.
Is there any place for this in the development of
the national curriculum?
• Curriculum development is locked into the
political cycle, which makes time-consuming trials
difficult.
• RCTs only really work where the number of
variables is small and controllable. Curriculum
development is complex and multi-dimensional –
especially when it involves international
comparisons.
• Trialling will come through closed monitoring of
practical implementation.
Conversation with Tim Oates, 16 September 2011
Versions of the NC for Science
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1989
1991
1995
1999
2004
2006
2008
2013 – the last one?
Outline of my talk
• Past: 1988/ 1989 and the National Curriculum
for Science
• Present: living with the consequences of
policy (Kate Nickson)
• Future: the new National Curriculum
• Conclusion: principles for evidence-based
policymaking
• Questions and discussion
Five principles for evidence-based
policymaking
• Be realistic: if compelling evidence is not
available, policy will be decided on judgement
• Be ready: evidence takes years to assemble,
but elected politicians need results within 1 –
4 years
• Be robust: some evidence is more compelling
than others
• Be flexible: pilot everything
• Be alert: for unintended consequences.
Outline of my talk
• Past: 1988/ 1989 and the National Curriculum
for Science
• Present: living with the consequences of
policy (Kate Nickson)
• Future: the new National Curriculum
• Conclusion: principles for evidence-based
policymaking
• Questions and discussion