PlayoffclassesPP.xlsx

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RECRUITING HISTORY 2010-2014

HOW THE DATA WAS GATHERED

Using Rivals and 247Sports data, the Draft classes from 2010-2014 were evaluated on a Star and

Player rating value.

Using the Ourlads website, a 2 Deep depth chart was created for each school. No duplicates were counted. For example, if the 2 nd string Right & Left

Guard was the same person he was only counted one time not to skew the average of the data.

Players that were walkons or transfers all counted on the 2 Deep as a 0 value as this study is designed to look at recruiting classes and how they can be compared.

LOOKING AT THE DATA (RECRUITING)

OVERALL (2010-2014)

R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING

BAMA 3.81

5.83

3.89

0.91

OSU

FSU

3.63

3.60

5.78

5.76

3.69

3.64

0.91

0.90

OREG 3.34

PSU 3.14

5.69

5.64

3.38

3.29

0.87

0.86

OVERALL (2010-2014)

BAMA

OSU

FSU

OREG

PSU

R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING

1

2

1

2

1

2

2

1

3

4

5

3

4

5

3

4

5

3

4

5

• Bama has acquired the top prospects over the past 5 years.

• Bama is over ½ star better than PSU on

Rivals and 247Sports.

• Although OSU beats

FSU in every category, the numbers are extremely close.

LOOKING AT THE DATA (2 DEEP)

OVERALL (2010-2014)

R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING

BAMA 3.82

5.62

3.91

0.90

OSU

FSU

3.64

3.73

5.68

5.69

3.71

3.78

0.88

0.90

OREG 3.22

PSU 2.72

5.43

4.75

3.20

2.81

0.82

0.72

OVERALL (2010-2014)

BAMA

OSU

FSU

OREG

PSU

R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING

1

3

3

2

1

3

2

3

2

4

5

1

4

5

2

4

5

1

4

5

• FSU has the highest rated prospects contributing for them.

Bama has the highest

Stars.

• FSU is about a full star better than PSU on

Rivals and 247Sports.

• Overall Bama, OSU and

FSU are on a different level as far a 2 Deep goes.

LOOKING AT THE DATA (DIFFERENCE)

OVERALL (2010-2014)

R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING

BAMA 0.00

-0.22

0.02

-0.01

OSU 0.02

-0.10

0.02

-0.03

FSU 0.14

OREG -0.12

PSU -0.42

-0.08

-0.26

-0.89

0.14

-0.18

-0.48

0.00

-0.04

-0.14

OVERALL (2010-2014)

BAMA

OSU

FSU

OREG

PSU

R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING

3

2

3

2

3

2

2

3

1

4

5

1

4

5

1

4

5

1

4

5

• FSU may be 3 rd in recruiting (2 slides earlier) but they play their better prospects.

• Bama, FSU and OSU average on the plus side for star ratings.

• A positive correlation says that they are playing their highest rated recruits.

WIN PERCENTAGE 2010-14

60

40

20

0

OREG BAMA

FSU

OSU

PSU

RECORD (2010-2014)

WINS LOSSES WIN % Rank

OREG 60

BAMA 58

FSU

OSU

58

56

8

9

11

11

88.2%

86.6%

84.1%

83.6%

3

4

1

2

PSU 38 25 60.3% 5

Wins

Losses

LOOKING AT ALABAMA

• Alabama has done well with finding and playing RB talent.

• In the 2 Deep, 5 out of the 7 top spots are on the defensive side.

• QB has not been a priority for Bama as much as other positions. With a

FSU transfer backing up, they grade low on the 2 Deep as well.

• 8 positions average 4 star or better according to Rivals on the 2 Deep.

• Non-Kicker Recruits average better than 3.5 stars on Rivals & 247Sports.

Recruits

POS

Rival

STARS

Rival

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

RB Avg

DB Avg

4.22

4.19

5.96

5.93

4.22

4.13

0.86

0.95

15.26

15.19

ATH Avg 4.00

5.90

4.25

0.95

15.10

DE Avg

LB Avg

4.09

5.90

4.09

0.94

15.03

3.93

5.88

4.07

0.95

14.83

Over Avg 3.81

5.83

3.89

0.91

14.45

WR Avg 3.71

5.82

3.79

0.92

14.24

OL Avg 3.70

5.81

3.70

0.91

14.11

QB Avg 3.50

5.75

3.67

0.91

13.83

TE Avg 3.50

5.75

3.67

0.90

13.82

DT Avg

K Avg

3.53

5.75

3.67

0.85

13.80

2.75

5.45

3.00

0.86

12.06

POS

RB Avg

TE Avg

LB Avg

DS Avg

DE Avg

CB Avg

4.00

4.00

DT Avg 4.00

WR Avg 4.00

OL Avg 3.60

Over Avg 3.73

Rival

STARS

4.50

4.50

4.17

4.25

FB Avg 2.00

QB Avg 2.00

2 DEEP

Rival

RATING

6.05

5.95

5.92

5.93

5.85

5.90

5.85

5.92

5.81

5.48

2.90

2.90

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

5.00

0.99

16.54

4.50

0.95

15.90

4.33

0.97

15.39

4.25

0.95

15.38

4.25

0.93

15.03

4.00

0.95

14.85

4.00

0.91

14.76

3.83

0.95

14.70

3.80

0.91

14.12

3.82

0.88

13.91

2.00

0.45

2.00

0.45

7.35

7.35

LOOKING AT FLORIDA STATE

• Florida State has done an exceptional job of playing top caliber RBs as shown in their 5.00 2 Deep average.

• Florida State has recruited the WR position well (4.20 Rivals), however those WRs seeing action rate much lower on average.

• On Rivals & 247Sports, FSU only has 1 position (WR) with a star rating of at least 4, but they boast 5 positions of 4 stars or more on the 2 Deep.

Recruits

POS

WR Avg

RB Avg

DB Avg

LB Avg

DE Avg

Rival

STARS

Rivals

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

4.20

5.88

4.10

0.94

15.12

3.88

5.88

3.88

0.94

14.56

3.87

5.83

3.87

0.92

14.48

3.76

5.83

3.76

0.92

14.28

3.56

5.78

3.67

0.91

13.91

Over Avg 3.60

5.76

3.64

0.90

13.90

DT Avg 3.53

5.72

3.58

0.89

13.72

QB Avg

TE Avg

ATH Avg

3.50

3.29

3.33

5.72

5.70

5.73

3.50

3.57

3.33

0.89

0.88

0.89

13.60

13.44

13.29

OL Avg

K Avg

3.27

5.69

3.32

0.88

13.15

2.50

5.40

3.00

0.83

11.73

POS

RB Avg

DT Avg

LB Avg

CB Avg

QB Avg

Rival

STARS

5.00

4.25

4.00

4.00

4.00

WR Avg 3.83

Over Avg 3.73

DS Avg 3.50

DE Avg

OL Avg

3.50

3.33

FB Avg

TE Avg

3.50

2.00

2 DEEP

Rival

RATING

6.10

5.90

5.91

5.83

5.80

5.83

5.69

5.75

5.65

5.68

5.75

3.00

3.78

3.50

3.50

3.33

3.00

2.50

247

STARS

5.00

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.00

3.67

247

RATING Total

1.00

17.10

0.94

15.34

0.95

15.11

0.95

15.02

0.93

14.73

0.92

14.25

0.90

14.10

0.89

13.64

0.87

13.52

0.87

13.22

0.88

13.13

0.49

7.99

LOOKING AT OREGON

• Continuing the RB trend, Oregon’s highest recruited position is RB and on the 2 Deep RBs are ¾ of a Star ahead of the next highest rated position.

• As you might think, Oregon’s top prospects are offensive skill players with

RB, WR, TE and QB all beating the overall average.

• Ironically, when looking at the 2 Deep, Defense is very strong with every position rating higher than the avg with the exception of LB’s rival star.

Recruits

POS

Rival

STARS

Rival

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

RB Avg 3.89

5.82

4.00

0.92

14.63

WR Avg 3.80

5.79

3.70

0.91

14.20

ATH Avg 3.80

5.83

3.60

0.91

14.14

TE Avg 3.50

5.75

3.50

0.89

13.64

QB Avg 3.50

5.72

3.50

0.88

13.60

DT Avg 3.50

5.70

3.25

0.88

13.33

Over Avg 3.34

5.69

3.38

0.87

13.28

DE Avg 3.27

5.67

3.27

0.87

13.07

OL Avg 3.11

5.62

3.33

0.82

12.88

LB Avg 3.10

5.65

3.20

0.87

12.82

DB Avg 3.00

5.62

3.06

0.82

12.50

K Avg 2.33

5.40

2.67

0.80

11.20

2 DEEP

POS

RB Avg

DE Avg

DS Avg

Rival

STARS

Rival

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

4.50

6.05

4.50

0.99

16.04

3.75

5.80

3.50

0.89

13.94

3.50

5.78

3.75

0.90

13.92

TE Avg

DT Avg

CB Avg

LB Avg

3.50

5.75

3.50

0.88

13.63

3.50

5.75

3.50

0.88

13.63

3.33

5.73

3.33

0.89

13.29

3.13

5.68

3.25

0.87

12.92

Over Avg 3.22

5.43

3.20

0.82

12.67

WR Avg 3.40

5.62

2.80

0.72

12.54

QB Avg

OL Avg

3.00

2.44

5.65

4.38

3.00

2.56

0.85

0.68

12.50

10.06

LOOKING AT OHIO STATE

• Play defense & run the ball. The top 5 spots on Recruits & 2 Deep belong to all defensive players & a running back. This seems to be OSU’s motto.

• QB 2 Deep is reflective of the 2 major injuries from the season, but after the two 4 Star QBs went down Jones (3) and a freshman (3) were left.

• OL is at the bottom of both lists for OSU, and on Rivals star rating the position was an exact match at 3.5 (even though Bama is the only higher rated OL).

Recruits 2 DEEP

POS

Rival

STARS

Rival

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

DB Avg 3.71

5.84

3.82

0.93

14.29

LB Avg 3.71

5.78

3.88

0.92

14.28

DE Avg 3.75

5.82

3.75

0.92

14.24

ATH Avg 3.75

5.81

3.75

0.92

14.23

RB Avg 3.71

5.77

3.71

0.92

14.12

Over Avg 3.63

5.78

3.69

0.91

14.01

DT Avg 3.57

5.79

3.71

0.92

13.99

WR Avg 3.62

5.77

3.62

0.91

13.91

QB Avg 3.50

5.78

3.60

0.90

13.79

TE Avg 3.50

5.78

3.50

0.90

13.68

OL Avg 3.50

5.72

3.44

0.89

13.56

K Avg 2.50

5.45

3.00

0.83

11.78

POS

DT Avg

RB Avg

LB Avg

Rival

STARS

4.00

4.00

4.00

DS Avg

CB Avg

TE Avg

3.75

3.75

3.75

Over Avg 3.64

WR Avg 3.50

OL Avg

QB Avg

DE Avg

3.50

3.00

3.00

Rival

RATING

5.93

6.00

5.85

5.88

5.85

5.83

5.68

5.75

5.73

5.65

4.40

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

4.25

0.95

15.13

4.00

0.97

14.97

4.00

0.93

14.78

4.00

0.93

14.56

4.00

0.96

14.56

3.75

0.92

14.25

3.71

0.88

13.92

3.50

0.89

13.64

3.50

0.79

13.52

3.00

0.87

12.52

3.00

0.71

11.11

LOOKING AT PENN STATE

• PSU’s QB stats got a huge boost from Hackenberg with his 5 star rating in both Recruiting and the 2 Deep.

• Although the Defense was the backbone of the team, many contributors were not top tier players. Every position is 3.00 or lower on the 2 Deep.

• PSU has one position at 4.00 or higher (QB) on the 2 Deep. WR is 2 nd at

3.75, then RB at 3.50 making PSU the only team with the top 3 on offense.

Recruits 2 DEEP

POS

Rival

STARS

Rival

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

QB Avg

DE Avg

3.67

5.77

3.83

0.91

14.18

3.42

5.71

3.42

0.88

13.42

TE Avg 3.29

5.71

3.43

0.89

13.32

WR Avg 3.22

5.63

3.44

0.78

13.08

OL Avg 3.18

5.65

3.35

0.87

13.06

ATH Avg 3.25

5.63

3.25

0.86

12.99

Over Avg 3.14

5.64

3.29

0.86

12.93

LB Avg

RB Avg

DT Avg

DB Avg

K Avg

3.11

3.14

2.60

2.67

2.00

5.68

5.69

5.52

5.49

5.30

3.22

3.14

3.20

2.92

2.00

0.87

0.88

0.85

0.84

0.77

12.88

12.85

12.17

11.91

10.07

POS

Rival

STARS

Rival

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

QB Avg 4.00

5.85

4.00

0.93

14.78

WR Avg 3.75

5.80

3.75

0.71

14.01

RB Avg 3.50

5.75

3.50

0.91

13.66

CB Avg

TE Avg

OL Avg

3.00

2.50

2.78

5.53

5.50

5.04

3.00

3.00

3.11

0.84

0.85

0.79

12.36

11.85

11.73

Over Avg 2.72

4.75

2.81

0.72

11.00

LB Avg 2.67

4.72

2.67

0.72

10.77

DT Avg

DE Avg

2.50

2.50

4.28

4.25

2.50

2.50

0.66

0.66

9.93

9.91

DS Avg

FB Avg

2.25

4.20

2.25

0.65

9.35

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

4 PLAYOFF TEAM AVERAGES

• Even though there is a high emphasis on RB in the 2 Deep, 5 out of the top 6 spots are on the defensive side of the ball.

• In regards to recruiting, skill players are key (RB, WR, ATH, LB, DB).

Runningbacks are over ½ star higher than OL on Rival stars.

• QBs rank low in recruiting and even lower in 2 Deep. TE and OL also fall below average on both charts.

• Overall averages netted a 0.01 difference, as did the National Champs.

Recruits

POS

RB Avg

WR Avg

Rival

STARS

Rival

RATING

247

STARS

247

RATING Total

3.94

5.86

3.97

0.91

14.68

3.81

5.81

3.79

0.92

14.33

ATH Avg 3.75

5.83

3.75

0.92

14.24

LB Avg

DB Avg

DE Avg

3.68

3.68

3.65

5.80

5.80

5.78

3.78

3.71

3.67

0.92

0.90

0.91

14.17

14.09

14.01

Over Avg 3.60

5.77

3.66

0.90

13.93

DT Avg 3.53

5.74

3.60

0.88

13.75

QB Avg

TE Avg

3.50

3.43

5.74

5.74

3.57

3.57

0.90

0.89

13.70

13.63

OL Avg

K Avg

3.40

5.71

3.45

0.87

13.43

2.55

5.43

2.90

0.83

11.71

POS

RB Avg

Rival

STARS

4.50

DT Avg

CB Avg

LB Avg

DS Avg

4.00

3.80

3.79

3.75

WR Avg 3.71

Over Avg 3.61

DE Avg 3.57

TE Avg

OL Avg

3.50

3.22

QB Avg 3.00

FB Avg 2.75

2 DEEP

Rival

RATING

6.05

5.88

5.83

5.83

5.83

5.79

5.61

5.39

5.27

5.40

5.00

4.33

247

STARS

4.63

4.08

3.93

3.93

3.88

3.48

3.66

3.57

3.60

3.31

3.00

2.50

247

RATING Total

0.99

16.16

0.93

14.89

0.94

14.51

0.93

14.47

0.92

14.37

0.88

13.86

0.88

13.75

0.85

13.38

0.83

13.20

0.82

12.75

0.77

11.77

0.67

10.24

PSU VS. 4 TEAM AVERAGES

Rival Stars PSU Rival Stars Top 4

4

3

2

1

0

ATH DB DE DT K LB OL Avg QB RB TE WR

PSU: 3.25 2.67 3.42 2.6 2.0 3.11 3.18 3.14 3.67 3.14 3.29 3.22

TOP 4: 3.75 3.68 3.65 3.53 2.55 3.68 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.94 3.43 3.81

RECRUITING

With the exception of QB, PSU has some work to do to catch up to the Top 4.

PSU DIFFERENCE VS 4 TEAMS

RECRUITS

POS

ATH Avg

DB Avg

DE Avg

DT Avg

K Avg

LB Avg

OL Avg

Rival Rival

STARS RATING

-0.50

-0.20

-1.01

-0.31

-0.23

-0.07

-0.93

-0.22

-0.55

-0.13

-0.57

-0.12

-0.22

-0.06

Over Avg -0.46

-0.13

QB Avg 0.17

0.03

RB Avg

TE Avg

WR Avg

-0.80

-0.14

-0.59

-0.17

-0.03

-0.18

247

STARS

-0.50

-0.79

-0.25

-0.40

-0.90

-0.56

-0.10

-0.37

0.26

-0.83

-0.14

-0.35

247

RATING

-0.06

-1.25

-0.06

-2.18

-0.03

-0.59

-0.03

-0.06

-0.05

0.00

-0.04

0.01

Total

-1.58

-1.64

-1.29

-0.37

-1.00

0.48

-0.03

-1.83

0.00

-0.31

-0.14

-1.25

* In the Recruiting , DBs are kept together with no separation between

Corner and Safety.

* On the 2 Deep , DBs are specified as

Corner and Safety.

2 DEEP

Rival Rival 247 247

POS STARS RATING STARS RATING Total

CB Avg -0.80

-0.30

-0.93

-0.10

-2.15

DE Avg -1.07

-1.14

-1.07

-0.19

-3.47

DS Avg -1.50

-1.63

-1.63

-0.27

-5.02

DT Avg -1.50

-1.60

-1.58

-0.27

-4.96

FB Avg -2.75

-4.33

-2.50

-0.67

-10.24

LB Avg -1.12

-1.11

-1.26

-0.21

-3.70

OL Avg -0.44

-0.36

-0.20

-0.03

-1.02

Over Avg -0.89

-0.86

-0.85

-0.16

-2.75

QB Avg 1.00

0.85

1.00

0.16

3.01

RB Avg -1.00

-0.30

-1.13

-0.08

-2.50

TE Avg -1.00

0.23

-0.60

0.02

-1.35

WR Avg 0.04

0.01

0.27

-0.17

0.15

SUMMARY

• As mentioned throughout the study, RBs have been the highest recruited and highest rated position in the 2 Deep across the board.

• Of the Top 4 teams OL, TE and QB were positions that were consistently low. On the flipside, skill players on both sides of the ball in recruiting held the highest priority.

• On the 2 Deep, after RB, Defensive players need to dominate the top rated positions.

• Although emphasized, a QB may be over-valued in college.

The team around the QB, especially those handling the ball seem to be a better indicator of success than QB ratings.

• The model for making it to the NCAA playoff is a top tier RB accompanied with a top tier defense.

• From 2005-2013 there is only 1 current NFL starting QB (Cam

Newton) that played in a BCS national championship game yet there are 9 NFL starting RBs.

PENN STATE GOING FORWARD

Negatives

• The gap is real. The sanctions hit hard and in order to close the gap we have to get and hit on big time players in abundance.

• Our recruiting strengths vs the 4 playoff teams has been at the OL, TE, and

QB, 3 positions that inversely show a negative correlation in success for the

Top 4 in the NCAA playoff.

• In the 2 Deep, CB is the only position on defense that on average the difference between PSU and the 4 teams is less than a full star (-0.80).

Positives

• We have a chance: Our development of the defensive end has out-shined our recruiting over the past 5 seasons. Although we don’t have the model history in recruiting, our pieces add up in the end.

• We are already headed down the right path: The 2015 class is loaded with 4 stars at skill positions and a stud RB (by ratings).

• Best of both worlds: This study showed you can get to the playoffs with great pieces around a decent QB. Here we have a next level QB & are beginning to get the pieces around him that will elevate the entire program.

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