•
Using Rivals and 247Sports data, the Draft classes from 2010-2014 were evaluated on a Star and
Player rating value.
•
Using the Ourlads website, a 2 Deep depth chart was created for each school. No duplicates were counted. For example, if the 2 nd string Right & Left
Guard was the same person he was only counted one time not to skew the average of the data.
•
Players that were walkons or transfers all counted on the 2 Deep as a 0 value as this study is designed to look at recruiting classes and how they can be compared.
OVERALL (2010-2014)
R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING
BAMA 3.81
5.83
3.89
0.91
OSU
FSU
3.63
3.60
5.78
5.76
3.69
3.64
0.91
0.90
OREG 3.34
PSU 3.14
5.69
5.64
3.38
3.29
0.87
0.86
OVERALL (2010-2014)
BAMA
OSU
FSU
OREG
PSU
R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
3
4
5
3
4
5
3
4
5
3
4
5
• Bama has acquired the top prospects over the past 5 years.
• Bama is over ½ star better than PSU on
Rivals and 247Sports.
• Although OSU beats
FSU in every category, the numbers are extremely close.
OVERALL (2010-2014)
R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING
BAMA 3.82
5.62
3.91
0.90
OSU
FSU
3.64
3.73
5.68
5.69
3.71
3.78
0.88
0.90
OREG 3.22
PSU 2.72
5.43
4.75
3.20
2.81
0.82
0.72
OVERALL (2010-2014)
BAMA
OSU
FSU
OREG
PSU
R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING
1
3
3
2
1
3
2
3
2
4
5
1
4
5
2
4
5
1
4
5
• FSU has the highest rated prospects contributing for them.
Bama has the highest
Stars.
• FSU is about a full star better than PSU on
Rivals and 247Sports.
• Overall Bama, OSU and
FSU are on a different level as far a 2 Deep goes.
OVERALL (2010-2014)
R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING
BAMA 0.00
-0.22
0.02
-0.01
OSU 0.02
-0.10
0.02
-0.03
FSU 0.14
OREG -0.12
PSU -0.42
-0.08
-0.26
-0.89
0.14
-0.18
-0.48
0.00
-0.04
-0.14
OVERALL (2010-2014)
BAMA
OSU
FSU
OREG
PSU
R-STARS R-RATING 247-STARS 247-RATING
3
2
3
2
3
2
2
3
1
4
5
1
4
5
1
4
5
1
4
5
• FSU may be 3 rd in recruiting (2 slides earlier) but they play their better prospects.
• Bama, FSU and OSU average on the plus side for star ratings.
• A positive correlation says that they are playing their highest rated recruits.
60
40
20
0
OREG BAMA
FSU
OSU
PSU
RECORD (2010-2014)
WINS LOSSES WIN % Rank
OREG 60
BAMA 58
FSU
OSU
58
56
8
9
11
11
88.2%
86.6%
84.1%
83.6%
3
4
1
2
PSU 38 25 60.3% 5
Wins
Losses
• Alabama has done well with finding and playing RB talent.
• In the 2 Deep, 5 out of the 7 top spots are on the defensive side.
• QB has not been a priority for Bama as much as other positions. With a
FSU transfer backing up, they grade low on the 2 Deep as well.
• 8 positions average 4 star or better according to Rivals on the 2 Deep.
• Non-Kicker Recruits average better than 3.5 stars on Rivals & 247Sports.
Recruits
POS
Rival
STARS
Rival
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
RB Avg
DB Avg
4.22
4.19
5.96
5.93
4.22
4.13
0.86
0.95
15.26
15.19
ATH Avg 4.00
5.90
4.25
0.95
15.10
DE Avg
LB Avg
4.09
5.90
4.09
0.94
15.03
3.93
5.88
4.07
0.95
14.83
Over Avg 3.81
5.83
3.89
0.91
14.45
WR Avg 3.71
5.82
3.79
0.92
14.24
OL Avg 3.70
5.81
3.70
0.91
14.11
QB Avg 3.50
5.75
3.67
0.91
13.83
TE Avg 3.50
5.75
3.67
0.90
13.82
DT Avg
K Avg
3.53
5.75
3.67
0.85
13.80
2.75
5.45
3.00
0.86
12.06
POS
RB Avg
TE Avg
LB Avg
DS Avg
DE Avg
CB Avg
4.00
4.00
DT Avg 4.00
WR Avg 4.00
OL Avg 3.60
Over Avg 3.73
Rival
STARS
4.50
4.50
4.17
4.25
FB Avg 2.00
QB Avg 2.00
2 DEEP
Rival
RATING
6.05
5.95
5.92
5.93
5.85
5.90
5.85
5.92
5.81
5.48
2.90
2.90
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
5.00
0.99
16.54
4.50
0.95
15.90
4.33
0.97
15.39
4.25
0.95
15.38
4.25
0.93
15.03
4.00
0.95
14.85
4.00
0.91
14.76
3.83
0.95
14.70
3.80
0.91
14.12
3.82
0.88
13.91
2.00
0.45
2.00
0.45
7.35
7.35
• Florida State has done an exceptional job of playing top caliber RBs as shown in their 5.00 2 Deep average.
• Florida State has recruited the WR position well (4.20 Rivals), however those WRs seeing action rate much lower on average.
• On Rivals & 247Sports, FSU only has 1 position (WR) with a star rating of at least 4, but they boast 5 positions of 4 stars or more on the 2 Deep.
Recruits
POS
WR Avg
RB Avg
DB Avg
LB Avg
DE Avg
Rival
STARS
Rivals
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
4.20
5.88
4.10
0.94
15.12
3.88
5.88
3.88
0.94
14.56
3.87
5.83
3.87
0.92
14.48
3.76
5.83
3.76
0.92
14.28
3.56
5.78
3.67
0.91
13.91
Over Avg 3.60
5.76
3.64
0.90
13.90
DT Avg 3.53
5.72
3.58
0.89
13.72
QB Avg
TE Avg
ATH Avg
3.50
3.29
3.33
5.72
5.70
5.73
3.50
3.57
3.33
0.89
0.88
0.89
13.60
13.44
13.29
OL Avg
K Avg
3.27
5.69
3.32
0.88
13.15
2.50
5.40
3.00
0.83
11.73
POS
RB Avg
DT Avg
LB Avg
CB Avg
QB Avg
Rival
STARS
5.00
4.25
4.00
4.00
4.00
WR Avg 3.83
Over Avg 3.73
DS Avg 3.50
DE Avg
OL Avg
3.50
3.33
FB Avg
TE Avg
3.50
2.00
2 DEEP
Rival
RATING
6.10
5.90
5.91
5.83
5.80
5.83
5.69
5.75
5.65
5.68
5.75
3.00
3.78
3.50
3.50
3.33
3.00
2.50
247
STARS
5.00
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.00
3.67
247
RATING Total
1.00
17.10
0.94
15.34
0.95
15.11
0.95
15.02
0.93
14.73
0.92
14.25
0.90
14.10
0.89
13.64
0.87
13.52
0.87
13.22
0.88
13.13
0.49
7.99
• Continuing the RB trend, Oregon’s highest recruited position is RB and on the 2 Deep RBs are ¾ of a Star ahead of the next highest rated position.
• As you might think, Oregon’s top prospects are offensive skill players with
RB, WR, TE and QB all beating the overall average.
• Ironically, when looking at the 2 Deep, Defense is very strong with every position rating higher than the avg with the exception of LB’s rival star.
Recruits
POS
Rival
STARS
Rival
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
RB Avg 3.89
5.82
4.00
0.92
14.63
WR Avg 3.80
5.79
3.70
0.91
14.20
ATH Avg 3.80
5.83
3.60
0.91
14.14
TE Avg 3.50
5.75
3.50
0.89
13.64
QB Avg 3.50
5.72
3.50
0.88
13.60
DT Avg 3.50
5.70
3.25
0.88
13.33
Over Avg 3.34
5.69
3.38
0.87
13.28
DE Avg 3.27
5.67
3.27
0.87
13.07
OL Avg 3.11
5.62
3.33
0.82
12.88
LB Avg 3.10
5.65
3.20
0.87
12.82
DB Avg 3.00
5.62
3.06
0.82
12.50
K Avg 2.33
5.40
2.67
0.80
11.20
2 DEEP
POS
RB Avg
DE Avg
DS Avg
Rival
STARS
Rival
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
4.50
6.05
4.50
0.99
16.04
3.75
5.80
3.50
0.89
13.94
3.50
5.78
3.75
0.90
13.92
TE Avg
DT Avg
CB Avg
LB Avg
3.50
5.75
3.50
0.88
13.63
3.50
5.75
3.50
0.88
13.63
3.33
5.73
3.33
0.89
13.29
3.13
5.68
3.25
0.87
12.92
Over Avg 3.22
5.43
3.20
0.82
12.67
WR Avg 3.40
5.62
2.80
0.72
12.54
QB Avg
OL Avg
3.00
2.44
5.65
4.38
3.00
2.56
0.85
0.68
12.50
10.06
• Play defense & run the ball. The top 5 spots on Recruits & 2 Deep belong to all defensive players & a running back. This seems to be OSU’s motto.
• QB 2 Deep is reflective of the 2 major injuries from the season, but after the two 4 Star QBs went down Jones (3) and a freshman (3) were left.
• OL is at the bottom of both lists for OSU, and on Rivals star rating the position was an exact match at 3.5 (even though Bama is the only higher rated OL).
Recruits 2 DEEP
POS
Rival
STARS
Rival
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
DB Avg 3.71
5.84
3.82
0.93
14.29
LB Avg 3.71
5.78
3.88
0.92
14.28
DE Avg 3.75
5.82
3.75
0.92
14.24
ATH Avg 3.75
5.81
3.75
0.92
14.23
RB Avg 3.71
5.77
3.71
0.92
14.12
Over Avg 3.63
5.78
3.69
0.91
14.01
DT Avg 3.57
5.79
3.71
0.92
13.99
WR Avg 3.62
5.77
3.62
0.91
13.91
QB Avg 3.50
5.78
3.60
0.90
13.79
TE Avg 3.50
5.78
3.50
0.90
13.68
OL Avg 3.50
5.72
3.44
0.89
13.56
K Avg 2.50
5.45
3.00
0.83
11.78
POS
DT Avg
RB Avg
LB Avg
Rival
STARS
4.00
4.00
4.00
DS Avg
CB Avg
TE Avg
3.75
3.75
3.75
Over Avg 3.64
WR Avg 3.50
OL Avg
QB Avg
DE Avg
3.50
3.00
3.00
Rival
RATING
5.93
6.00
5.85
5.88
5.85
5.83
5.68
5.75
5.73
5.65
4.40
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
4.25
0.95
15.13
4.00
0.97
14.97
4.00
0.93
14.78
4.00
0.93
14.56
4.00
0.96
14.56
3.75
0.92
14.25
3.71
0.88
13.92
3.50
0.89
13.64
3.50
0.79
13.52
3.00
0.87
12.52
3.00
0.71
11.11
• PSU’s QB stats got a huge boost from Hackenberg with his 5 star rating in both Recruiting and the 2 Deep.
• Although the Defense was the backbone of the team, many contributors were not top tier players. Every position is 3.00 or lower on the 2 Deep.
• PSU has one position at 4.00 or higher (QB) on the 2 Deep. WR is 2 nd at
3.75, then RB at 3.50 making PSU the only team with the top 3 on offense.
Recruits 2 DEEP
POS
Rival
STARS
Rival
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
QB Avg
DE Avg
3.67
5.77
3.83
0.91
14.18
3.42
5.71
3.42
0.88
13.42
TE Avg 3.29
5.71
3.43
0.89
13.32
WR Avg 3.22
5.63
3.44
0.78
13.08
OL Avg 3.18
5.65
3.35
0.87
13.06
ATH Avg 3.25
5.63
3.25
0.86
12.99
Over Avg 3.14
5.64
3.29
0.86
12.93
LB Avg
RB Avg
DT Avg
DB Avg
K Avg
3.11
3.14
2.60
2.67
2.00
5.68
5.69
5.52
5.49
5.30
3.22
3.14
3.20
2.92
2.00
0.87
0.88
0.85
0.84
0.77
12.88
12.85
12.17
11.91
10.07
POS
Rival
STARS
Rival
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
QB Avg 4.00
5.85
4.00
0.93
14.78
WR Avg 3.75
5.80
3.75
0.71
14.01
RB Avg 3.50
5.75
3.50
0.91
13.66
CB Avg
TE Avg
OL Avg
3.00
2.50
2.78
5.53
5.50
5.04
3.00
3.00
3.11
0.84
0.85
0.79
12.36
11.85
11.73
Over Avg 2.72
4.75
2.81
0.72
11.00
LB Avg 2.67
4.72
2.67
0.72
10.77
DT Avg
DE Avg
2.50
2.50
4.28
4.25
2.50
2.50
0.66
0.66
9.93
9.91
DS Avg
FB Avg
2.25
4.20
2.25
0.65
9.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
• Even though there is a high emphasis on RB in the 2 Deep, 5 out of the top 6 spots are on the defensive side of the ball.
• In regards to recruiting, skill players are key (RB, WR, ATH, LB, DB).
Runningbacks are over ½ star higher than OL on Rival stars.
• QBs rank low in recruiting and even lower in 2 Deep. TE and OL also fall below average on both charts.
• Overall averages netted a 0.01 difference, as did the National Champs.
Recruits
POS
RB Avg
WR Avg
Rival
STARS
Rival
RATING
247
STARS
247
RATING Total
3.94
5.86
3.97
0.91
14.68
3.81
5.81
3.79
0.92
14.33
ATH Avg 3.75
5.83
3.75
0.92
14.24
LB Avg
DB Avg
DE Avg
3.68
3.68
3.65
5.80
5.80
5.78
3.78
3.71
3.67
0.92
0.90
0.91
14.17
14.09
14.01
Over Avg 3.60
5.77
3.66
0.90
13.93
DT Avg 3.53
5.74
3.60
0.88
13.75
QB Avg
TE Avg
3.50
3.43
5.74
5.74
3.57
3.57
0.90
0.89
13.70
13.63
OL Avg
K Avg
3.40
5.71
3.45
0.87
13.43
2.55
5.43
2.90
0.83
11.71
POS
RB Avg
Rival
STARS
4.50
DT Avg
CB Avg
LB Avg
DS Avg
4.00
3.80
3.79
3.75
WR Avg 3.71
Over Avg 3.61
DE Avg 3.57
TE Avg
OL Avg
3.50
3.22
QB Avg 3.00
FB Avg 2.75
2 DEEP
Rival
RATING
6.05
5.88
5.83
5.83
5.83
5.79
5.61
5.39
5.27
5.40
5.00
4.33
247
STARS
4.63
4.08
3.93
3.93
3.88
3.48
3.66
3.57
3.60
3.31
3.00
2.50
247
RATING Total
0.99
16.16
0.93
14.89
0.94
14.51
0.93
14.47
0.92
14.37
0.88
13.86
0.88
13.75
0.85
13.38
0.83
13.20
0.82
12.75
0.77
11.77
0.67
10.24
Rival Stars PSU Rival Stars Top 4
4
3
2
1
0
ATH DB DE DT K LB OL Avg QB RB TE WR
PSU: 3.25 2.67 3.42 2.6 2.0 3.11 3.18 3.14 3.67 3.14 3.29 3.22
TOP 4: 3.75 3.68 3.65 3.53 2.55 3.68 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.94 3.43 3.81
With the exception of QB, PSU has some work to do to catch up to the Top 4.
RECRUITS
POS
ATH Avg
DB Avg
DE Avg
DT Avg
K Avg
LB Avg
OL Avg
Rival Rival
STARS RATING
-0.50
-0.20
-1.01
-0.31
-0.23
-0.07
-0.93
-0.22
-0.55
-0.13
-0.57
-0.12
-0.22
-0.06
Over Avg -0.46
-0.13
QB Avg 0.17
0.03
RB Avg
TE Avg
WR Avg
-0.80
-0.14
-0.59
-0.17
-0.03
-0.18
247
STARS
-0.50
-0.79
-0.25
-0.40
-0.90
-0.56
-0.10
-0.37
0.26
-0.83
-0.14
-0.35
247
RATING
-0.06
-1.25
-0.06
-2.18
-0.03
-0.59
-0.03
-0.06
-0.05
0.00
-0.04
0.01
Total
-1.58
-1.64
-1.29
-0.37
-1.00
0.48
-0.03
-1.83
0.00
-0.31
-0.14
-1.25
* In the Recruiting , DBs are kept together with no separation between
Corner and Safety.
* On the 2 Deep , DBs are specified as
Corner and Safety.
2 DEEP
Rival Rival 247 247
POS STARS RATING STARS RATING Total
CB Avg -0.80
-0.30
-0.93
-0.10
-2.15
DE Avg -1.07
-1.14
-1.07
-0.19
-3.47
DS Avg -1.50
-1.63
-1.63
-0.27
-5.02
DT Avg -1.50
-1.60
-1.58
-0.27
-4.96
FB Avg -2.75
-4.33
-2.50
-0.67
-10.24
LB Avg -1.12
-1.11
-1.26
-0.21
-3.70
OL Avg -0.44
-0.36
-0.20
-0.03
-1.02
Over Avg -0.89
-0.86
-0.85
-0.16
-2.75
QB Avg 1.00
0.85
1.00
0.16
3.01
RB Avg -1.00
-0.30
-1.13
-0.08
-2.50
TE Avg -1.00
0.23
-0.60
0.02
-1.35
WR Avg 0.04
0.01
0.27
-0.17
0.15
• As mentioned throughout the study, RBs have been the highest recruited and highest rated position in the 2 Deep across the board.
• Of the Top 4 teams OL, TE and QB were positions that were consistently low. On the flipside, skill players on both sides of the ball in recruiting held the highest priority.
• On the 2 Deep, after RB, Defensive players need to dominate the top rated positions.
• Although emphasized, a QB may be over-valued in college.
The team around the QB, especially those handling the ball seem to be a better indicator of success than QB ratings.
• The model for making it to the NCAA playoff is a top tier RB accompanied with a top tier defense.
• From 2005-2013 there is only 1 current NFL starting QB (Cam
Newton) that played in a BCS national championship game yet there are 9 NFL starting RBs.
• The gap is real. The sanctions hit hard and in order to close the gap we have to get and hit on big time players in abundance.
• Our recruiting strengths vs the 4 playoff teams has been at the OL, TE, and
QB, 3 positions that inversely show a negative correlation in success for the
Top 4 in the NCAA playoff.
• In the 2 Deep, CB is the only position on defense that on average the difference between PSU and the 4 teams is less than a full star (-0.80).
• We have a chance: Our development of the defensive end has out-shined our recruiting over the past 5 seasons. Although we don’t have the model history in recruiting, our pieces add up in the end.
• We are already headed down the right path: The 2015 class is loaded with 4 stars at skill positions and a stud RB (by ratings).
• Best of both worlds: This study showed you can get to the playoffs with great pieces around a decent QB. Here we have a next level QB & are beginning to get the pieces around him that will elevate the entire program.