Sustainable Development
State of the World
AIESEC/EBBF Seminar
Acuto, 14-17 February 2008
Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
European Bahá'í Business Forum (EBBF)
http://www.ebbf.org
and
International Environment Forum (IEF)
http://www.bcca.org/ief
HEALTH WARNING:
THIS PRESENTATION
MAY CAUSE
NIGHTMARES AND
DEPRESSION
The Goal of
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Sustainable development is development that
meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs.
It contains within it two key concepts:
•the concept of 'needs', in particular the essential
needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority
should be given; and
•the idea of limitations imposed by the state of
technology and social organization on the
environment's ability to meet present and future
needs.
UN Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, 1987, p. 43
Sustainability
is a dynamic concept
• Not a goal to be reached but a balance
to be maintained in space and in time
• Involving complex interactions in the
whole system that maintains life on
Earth (the environmental component)
• Including the human system (the social
and economic components)
• That must respect planetary limits
The dimensions of
Sustainability
• It is customary to consider at least 3
dimensions or "pillars" of sustainable
development: economic, social and
environmental
• Many now add a fourth dimension, less
tangible but equally important, including
the cultural, institutional or organizational,
and ethical/spiritual aspects defining the
rules by which human society operates
To achieve sustainability, we must...
• understand the evolutionary processes
pushing globalization, including
population growth and scientific and
technological development
• identify the major driving forces behind
unsustainable trends
• define and implement the responses
necessary to put us on sustainable
trajectories
Sustainability
is like good health:
environment = body
economy = metabolism
social = mental health
ethics = spiritual health
What is our diagnosis?
Globalization
• is the logical next step in human evolution, but
• Economic globalization is driven by powerful
governments and multinational businesses for
their own benefit
• Social globalization is being strongly resisted
• Globalization of environmental problems
threatens future sustainability
Some of the major driving
forces for planetary
unsustainability
Environment: biodiversity loss, pollution,
nitrogen and carbon cycles, climate change
Human society: energy, population growth,
food, resource depletion, governance
failures
Economy: unmanaged globalization,
financial and wealth imbalances,
externalities
BIODIVERSIT
Y
LOSS
- Human impacts on the natural environment are
causing a major extinction event from uncontrollable
population and development pressures accelerated
by climate change
- There will soon be no natural ecosystems left,
requiring increasing human intervention to maintain
some biological diversity
DIAGNOSIS:
AUTOIMMUNE
DISEASE
RISK OF ORGAN FAILURE
Pollution
(image IKONOS – Lang, ESRI 1998)
Man-made chemical pollutants
have contaminated the entire
planet, interfering with biological
processes, upsetting hormonal
balances and immune systems,
causing cancers and other
diseases, damaging the ozone
layer, and having other as yet
unknown effects
DIAGNOSIS:
SYMPTOMS OF
TOXICITY
MULTIPLE POISONING
Nitrogen Cycle
• Fixed nitrogen is essential for life, especially the
manufacture of proteins
• Only a few kinds of microbes (bacteria and
cyanobacteria/bluegreen algae) can fix nitrogen
in nature.
• Burning fossil fuels produces nitrogen oxides
• Nitrogen fertilizers come from petrochemicals
• More than half the fixed nitrogen on the planet
now comes from human activities
• The excess causes eutrophication, ecological
imbalances and release of CO2 from plants
DIAGNOSIS:
EXCESSIVE USE OF
STIMULANTS
HIGHLY ADDICTED
The Carbon Cycle
• Carbon: carbon dioxide in air, uptake by plants,
released by animals/decomposers, stored in
organic matter, limestone, fossil fuels, released
from long-term storage by burning fossil fuels
Climate Change will be
stronger and sooner
• Global carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuel have accelerated since 2000
• Rise in 1990s 0.7%/yr; 2.9% since 2000
• Three causes: growth in world economy,
rise of coal use in China, weakening of
natural carbon sinks (forests, seas, soils)
• Growth in atmospheric CO2 about 35%
higher than expected a few years ago
Polar areas are changing fastest
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Half of the permafrost in the Arctic is expected to
melt by 2050 and 90% before 2100, releasing
methane
14% of the permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean melted
in 2005; 23% more in 2007(worst melting ever)
opening the North-West Passage; permanent ice in
the Arctic Ocean may be gone by 2030
Greenland glaciers have doubled their rate of flow in
the last few years, raising sea level 0.6 mm per year
Similar melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet could
add another 4 mm per year
There is little time left to act
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Global temperatures have already risen 0.6°C and will
probably rise a further 3°, or even up to 4.5-5° by 2100
Ocean temperatures have risen at least 3 km deep
Glaciers and snow cover have decreased; cold days,
nights and frost have become rarer; hot days, nights
and heat-waves more frequent
Sea level rise has doubled in 150 years to 2 mm/year,
and recent polar melting may add another 4 mm/year
Recent surge in CO2 levels from less uptake by plants
We may soon reach a tipping point where runaway
climate change would be catastrophic
The most vulnerable areas risking
catastrophic collapse this century
•
•
•
•
Arctic Ocean and Greenland ice sheet
Amazon rain forest
Northern boreal forests
El Nino affecting weather in North
America, South-East Asia and Africa
(3°C rise)
• Collapse of West African monsoon
• Erratic Indian summer monsoon
Climate change
effect on the economy
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The Stern Report estimated the annual
cost of uncontrolled climate change at
more than $660 billion (5 to 20% of global
GDP, as compared to 1% for control
measures for greenhouse gases).
Climate change represents the greatest
market failure in human history
IPCC 4 says stabilizing greenhouse gases
by 2030 will slow global growth by
0.12%/yr or 3% of total global GDP
DIAGNOSIS:
HIGH FEVER
INCREASING
COULD BECOME
LIFE-THREATENING
Human Population
• The world population has tripled in one lifetime,
and is expected by the UN to rise to 9.2 billion
by 2050 before stabilizing
• By some estimates, world resources can only
sustainably support 500 million people
• We seem to be following a classic ecological
pattern of overshoot and collapse
• The planetary carrying capacity depends on
numbers versus standard of living; increasing
one reduces the other
• Science may find ways to increase carrying
capacity, but only at longer time scales
DIAGNOSIS:
HIGHLY OBESE
RAPID UNCONTROLLED
WEIGHT GAIN
Food Production
• The Green Revolution of the 1970s postponed
food supply as a limit to growth
• Crop production has improved in the last 20
years from 1.8 to 2.5 t/ha. but such intensive
agriculture requires high energy, fertilizer and
petrochemical inputs
• World cereal production per person peaked in
the 1980s and has decreased slowly since
• Feeding the growing world population and
reducing hunger by half will require doubling
world food production by 2050
• Water, phosphate and energy will all be limiting
Global Food Crisis
• In 2007, the price of wheat rose 100%, maize
50%, rice 20%, increasing staple food prices for
the poor over 10%
• Global food reserves are lowest for 20 years,
with only 57 day grain reserve
• Climate change, drought, floods, soil erosion,
overfishing are reducing food production
• With grain being diverted for biofuel, 800 m
motorists are competing with 2 bn poor
• There are 854 m hungry people, rising 4 m/y
• Food is being priced out of reach for the poor
DIAGNOSIS:
MAY TIP FROM
OBESITY TO ANOREXIA
Water Shortage
• Most freshwater from streams and
groundwater is used for agriculture
• Water use for crops will have to double
by 2050 to halve the number of hungry
• But, by 2025, 1.8b people will live in
regions with absolute water scarcity,
and 2/3 of the world population could be
subject to water stress as climate
change reduces rainfall in these areas
DIAGNOSIS:
SERIOUS RISK OF
DEHYDRATION
Resource Depletion
Many key materials are being exhausted rapidly
(estimated years left: predicted/today's rate)
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Phosphorus (fertilizer) 142-345
Antimony (drugs) 15-30
Copper (wire, coins, pipes) 40-60
Hafnium, Indium (chips, LCDs) 5-15
Platinum (catalysts, fuel cells) 15-360
Silver (jewelry, catalysts) 15-30
Tantalum (cellphones, cameras) 20-115
Uranium (weapons, power stations) 30-60
Zinc (galvanizing) 20-46
DIAGNOSIS:
LACKING ESSENTIAL
MINERALS
ENZYMATIC
DISFUNCTION
THE PROBLEMS ARE GLOBAL BUT
GOVERNANCE IS STILL NATIONAL
• Legislation: social definition of ethical limits
• Taxation: wealth redistribution for common
services and social security
• International frameworks largely non-binding
(labour, health, transport, intellectual property)
• No global mechanism for economic
management (IMF, G8, etc.)
• No mechanism for global wealth redistribution
• No international legislation providing common
standards or a level playing field for business
Economic globalization
by itself is not working
• Rise of the Asian economies driving delocalizations and
competition for resources
• Difficult transition in Central and Eastern Europe; failure in
Africa
• Ageing societies of Europe and Japan
• America is living beyond its means
• Growing extremes of wealth and poverty; exploitation of
the poor, child labour; worker stress
• Failure to create adequate employment
• Global economy threatened by internal imbalances and
external perturbations
• Recent sustained growth similar to late '20s, early '70s;
increasing warnings of a crash; it may already have started
Financial Imbalances
Example: USA Current Account Deficit
The Cooper-Rogoff Debate, Davos 2006
WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007
• Larry Summers: Global imbalances are one of the most
important threats to global prosperity
• Richard Cooper: US current account deficit ($660b in 2004) is
natural and sustainable because US is attractive to
investment
• Ken Rogoff: US deficit mirrors government borrowing =
beginning of the end. US eating up 70% of global net savings.
US housing slump could cause drop in overvalued US$ of up
to 40% and loss of its role as global reserve currency,
precipitating a financial market crisis with serious impact on
inflexible economies of Europe and Japan
DIAGNOSIS:
METABOLISM
SERIOUSLY
OUT OF BALANCE
The present economic system
cannot deal with sustainability
- Economic thinking is challenged by the
environmental crisis (including climate change)
- It can no longer insist that there is no limit
to nature's capacity to fulfil any demand
made on it
- Attaching absolute value to growth, to
acquisition, and to the satisfaction of people's
wants is no longer a realistic guide to policy
- Economic decision-making tools cannot deal
with the fact that most of the major challenges
are global
The failure of social and
economic development
- Since World War II, development has been
our largest collective undertaking, with a
humanitarian motivation matched by
enormous material and technological
investment
- While it brought impressive benefits, it
failed to narrow the gap between the small
segment modern society and the vast
populations of the poor
- The gap has widen into an abyss
(Baha'i International Community, One Common Faith, 2005)
CORRUPTION
• The illegal economy from organized crime is
now $2 trillion/year, or twice all the world's
defence budgets
• Bribery $1tr; counterfeiting and piracy $520bn;
drug trade $320bn; human trafficking $44bn
• Political corruption is everywhere; the vast
majority of bribes go to people in rich countries
• 10% of all public health budgets are lost to
corruption
• Business participates to buy advantages, for
efficiency, out of fear
• This results in market failures, capital loss
DIAGNOSIS:
CANCER
METASTASIS
INVADED ALL
PARTS OF BODY
Adding up the figures
• A recent analysis of 40 years of data on
human activity and environmental damage
puts the cost of climate change, ozone
depletion, deforestation and overfishing by rich
nations at $47 trillion, more that the combined
foreign debt of all poor nations
• The annual investment necessary to restore
the planet's productive resources is estimated
at $93 billion
• The biggest shortage may be of capital to
make investments and repair damage
At the root
of all this
is what could
be called an
ethical
deficit
Has national
sovereignty
become
unethical?
Even at the UN, national sovereignty is
jealously protected, yet global problems
require a global response. Governments do
not realize that true national self-interest
today is best reflected in global solidarity
and a willingness to make short-term
sacrifices in the common interest
A self-centred materialism
• The early twentieth century materialistic
interpretation of reality has become the
dominant world faith in the direction of
society
• Rational experimentation and discussion
are expected to solve all the issues of
human governance and development
• Dogmatic materialism has captured all
significant centres of power and information
at the global level, ensuring that no
competing voices can challenge projects of
world wide economic exploitation
The unsustainable consumer culture
- Materialism's vision of human progress produced
today's consumer culture with its ephemeral goals
- For the small minority of people who can afford
them, the benefits it offers are immediate
- The breakdown of traditional morality has led to
the triumph of animal impulses and hedonism
- Selfishness has become a prized commercial
resource; falsehood reinvents itself as public
information; greed, lust, indolence, pride, violence
are broad accepted and have social and economic
value
The wealthy live unsustainable lifestyles
DIAGNOSIS:
INFANTILE
NARCISSISTIC
SELF-DELUSIONAL
COMPLETELY DETACHED
FROM REALITY
Integrating all the driving forces:
environmental, social, economic,
ethical
What are the implications
for planetary
sustainability?
Ecological footprint
• Surface needed to supply the needs and absorb the
wastes of an individual, community, or country
• Global average 2.3 ha/person
• Italy 3.26 ha/person (lowest in western Europe)
• France 5.74 ha/person, Switzerland 5.26 ha/p.
• Resources available 1.9 ha/person
• We overshot the earth's capacity in 1975
http://www.globalfootprint.org/
http://www.ecologicalfootprint.org/
http://www.myfootprint.org
Scenarios
plausible futures
• Business as usual in a
materialistic society
ignoring the future
• Retreating to a fortress
world of old values
• Making a transition to
sustainability
Scenarios from World 3
(Meadows et al. (1992) Beyond the Limits)
Business as usual
Transition 1995
Transition 2015
PROGNOSIS RESERVED:
MAY SOON REQUIRE
INTENSIVE CARE
Sustainability
is fundamentally an
Ethical Challenge
Sustainable development is at the
interface of science and ethics
• We need to redefine "development"(=
growth for economists) within a more
universal framework including society,
culture, science and spirituality
• What is our purpose as individuals and
as a society?
• What are some of the ethical principles
that should guide society towards
sustainable development?
PRESCRIPTION 1:
PSYCHOTHERAPY
HEALTH EDUCATION
Sustainability – an ethical concept
We are trustees or stewards of the planet's resources and
biodiversity. We must
- ensure sustainability and equity of resource use into distant
future
- consider the environmental consequences of development
activities
- temper our actions with moderation and humility
- value nature in more than economic terms
- understand the natural world and its role in humanity's
collective development both material and spiritual
Sustainable environmental management must come to be
seen not as a discretionary commitment mankind can weigh
against other competing interests, but rather as a fundamental
responsibility that must be shouldered, a pre-requisite for
spiritual development as well as the individual's physical
survival.
(based on Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. 1998)
For social sustainability
In increasingly diverse communities, how
do we go from prejudice and withdrawal to
open integration and unity?
Community
How do we create
unity in diversity?
What is the best size
for a community?
What does the
information revolution
mean for community
life and organization?
The importance of values
• Ethics and values are what determine
how humans relate to each other
• They are the social equivalent of DNA,
encoding the information through which
society is structured
• The most effective way to transform
society is to change its values
• What values will help us to improve the
state of the world in the 21st century?
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•
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•
•
•
•
Values for a sustainable society
Justice
Solidarity
Altruism
Cooperation
Trust
Moderation
Service
JUSTICE AND EQUITY
- It is unjust to sacrifice the well-being of most
people -- and even of the planet itself -- to the
advantages which technological breakthroughs
can make available to privileged minorities
- Only development programmes that are
perceived by the masses of humanity as
meeting their needs and as being just and
equitable in objective can hope to engage their
commitment, upon which implementation
depends
(based on Baha'i International Community, Prosperity of Humankind)
Solidarity and Altruism
We should consider every human
being as a trust of the whole.
The goal of wealth creation should
be to make everyone wealthy.
Voluntary giving is more
meaningful and effective than
forced redistribution.
Cooperation and
Reciprocity
Cooperation and reciprocity are
essential properties of all natural
and human systems, increasing in
more highly evolved and complex
systems
Trustworthiness
Trust is the basis for all economic and social
interaction
Public opinion surveys show little trust in
politicians and business
Would you sign a contract with someone you did
not trust?
Moderation in Material Civilization
The civilization, so often vaunted by
the learned exponents of arts and
sciences, will, if allowed to overleap
the bounds of moderation, bring great
evil upon men.... The day is
approaching when its flame will devour
the cities...
Bahá'u'lláh (1817-1892)
All religions have taught
Contentment – moderate lifestyles
...be content with little, and be freed from
all inordinate desire.
(Bahá'u'lláh)
What does this imply for the consumer society?
Present institutions have failed to
address such global challenges
• No politician will sacrifice short-term
economic welfare, even while agreeing that
sustainability is essential in the long term
• Deep social divisions within societies and
between countries prevent united action in
the common interest
• Climate change is just one symptom of the
fundamental imbalances in our world
• Our present economic system is incapable of
addressing long-term issues
Sustainability requires rethinking economics
- The present economic system is unsustainable
and not meeting human needs
- 50 years of economic development, despite
some progress, has failed to meet is objectives
- The global economic system lacks global
governance
- It is not the mechanisms of economics that are
at fault, but its values
A more sustainable economics
- Economics has ignored the broader context of
humanity's social and spiritual existence, resulting in:
- Corrosive materialism in the world's more
economically advantaged regions
- Persistent conditions of deprivation among the
masses of the world's peoples
- Economics should serve people's needs; societies
should not be expected to reformulate themselves to
fit economic models.
- The ultimate function of economic systems should
be to equip the peoples and institutions of the world
with the means to achieve the real purpose of
development: that is, the cultivation of the limitless
potentialities latent in human consciousness.
(adapted from Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development,
We need new economic models that
- further a dynamic, just and thriving
social order
- are strongly altruistic and cooperative
in nature
- provide meaningful employment
- help to eradicate poverty in the world
- give the right signals for challenges
like climate change and sustainability
Preserving the Ecological Balance
For the sustainable economic and social
development of all countries, agriculture and
the preservation of the ecological balance of
the world are fundamental.
Living within environmental
limits
is possible
To maintain a sustainable balance, we must:
- reduce our material consumption with simpler lifestyles
emphasizing social, cultural and spiritual wealth;
- redesign material civilization based on renewable resources,
energy economy and materials recycling in closed systems;
- reduce human impacts to a level appropriate to the
vulnerability and resilience of natural systems;
- restore damaged systems to the level necessary to maintain
natural and human ecosystem services;
- allow development and population growth only to the extent
that system improvements extend the carrying capacity of
planetary systems.
The Promise of Renewable Resources
To be sustainable long into the future, the
economy must be based on renewable resources
(agriculture, forests, fisheries, bio-industries),
closed materials cycles and integrated product
lifecycles
PRESCRIPTION 2:
STRENGTHEN THE
IMMUNE SYSTEM
Globalization requires a
new entrepreneurship
We are in the middle of a major transformation in society
The past is not a good predictor of the future
Change is inevitable, and the rate of change is accelerating,
requiring adaptive management
Globalization cannot be stopped, but it can be transformed
Institution building for international governance will continue
We can consciously work for change, or wait for catastrophe
to force us to change
There will be new forms of wealth creation and business
Creativity and innovation will be increasingly necessary for
success
Values and ethics will be fundamental to social and
economic transformation
The goal:
an organically
united world
Good for society
Good for business
AIESECers have the perfect profile
Value-driven
Unity in diversity
Entrepreneurial
Creative
Leadership
Become the new
responsible entrepreneurs
The years ahead will be difficult,
but there is reason for hope
Thank you
The planet will thank you too