IE340, I&IE Dept., COE UT PROCESS IMPROVEMENT THROUGH PLANNED EXPERIMENTATION Dr. Xueping Li University of Tennessee DOX 6E Montgomery 1 Design of Engineering Experiments Part 1 – Introduction Chapter 1, Text Why is this trip necessary? Goals of the course An abbreviated history of DOX Some basic principles and terminology The strategy of experimentation Guidelines for planning, conducting and analyzing experiments DOX 6E Montgomery 2 Introduction to DOX An experiment is a test or a series of tests Experiments are used widely in the engineering world Process characterization & optimization Evaluation of material properties Product design & development Component & system tolerance determination “All experiments are designed experiments, some are poorly designed, some are well-designed” DOX 6E Montgomery 3 Engineering Experiments Reduce time to design/develop new products & processes Improve performance of existing processes Improve reliability and performance of products Achieve product & process robustness Evaluation of materials, design alternatives, setting component & system DOX 6E Montgomery tolerances, etc. 4 Four Eras in the History of DOX The agricultural origins, 1918 – 1940s R. A. Fisher & his co-workers Profound impact on agricultural science Factorial designs, ANOVA The first industrial era, 1951 – late 1970s Box & Wilson, response surfaces Applications in the chemical & process industries The second industrial era, late 1970s – 1990 Quality improvement initiatives in many companies Taguchi and robust parameter design, process robustness DOX 6E Montgomery The modern era, beginning circa 1990 5 The Basic Principles of DOX Randomization Running the trials in an experiment in random order Notion of balancing out effects of “lurking” variables Replication Sample size (improving precision of effect estimation, estimation of error or background noise) Replication versus repeat measurements? (see page 13) Blocking DOX 6E Montgomery Dealing with nuisance factors 6 Strategy of Experimentation “Best-guess” experiments Used a lot More successful than you might suspect, but there are disadvantages… One-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) experiments Sometimes associated with the “scientific” or “engineering” method Devastated by interaction, also very inefficient Statistically designed experiments Based on Fisher’s factorial concept DOX 6E Montgomery 7 Factorial Designs In a factorial experiment, all possible combinations of factor levels are tested The golf experiment: Type of driver Type of ball Walking vs. riding Type of beverage Time of round Weather Type of golf spike Etc, etc, etc… DOX 6E Montgomery 8 Factorial Design DOX 6E Montgomery 9 Factorial Designs with Several Factors DOX 6E Montgomery 10 Factorial Designs with Several Factors A Fractional Factorial DOX 6E Montgomery 11 Planning, Conducting & Analyzing an Experiment 1. Recognition of & statement of problem 2. Choice of factors, levels, and ranges 3. Selection of the response variable(s) 4. Choice of design 5. Conducting the experiment 6. Statistical analysis 7. Drawing conclusions, recommendations DOX 6E Montgomery 12 Planning, Conducting & Analyzing an Experiment Get statistical thinking involved early Your non-statistical knowledge is crucial to success Pre-experimental planning (steps 1-3) vital Think and experiment sequentially (use the KISS principle) See Coleman & Montgomery (1993) Technometrics paper + supplemental text material DOX 6E Montgomery 13 DOX 6E Montgomery 14 DOX 6E Montgomery 15 Six Sigma Use of statistics & other analytical tools has grown steadily for over 80 years Statistical quality control (origins in 1920, explosive growth during WW II, 1950s) Operations research (1940s) FDA, EPA in the 1970’s TQM (Total Quality Management) movement in the 1980’s Reengineering of business processes (late 1980’s) Six-Sigma (origins at Motorola in 1987, expanded impact during 1990s to present) DOX 6E Montgomery 16 Focus of Six Sigma is on Process Improvement with an Emphasis on Achieving Significant Business Impact A process is an organized sequence of activities that produces an output that adds value to the organization All work is performed in (interconnected) processes Easy to see in some situations (manufacturing) Harder in others Any process can be improved An organized approach to improvement is necessary DOX 6E Montgomery 17 The process focus is essential to Six Sigma DOX 6E Montgomery 18 Why “Quality Improvement” is Important: A Simple Example • A visit to a fast-food store: Hamburger (bun, meat, special sauce, cheese, pickle, onion, lettuce, tomato), fries, and drink. • This product has 10 components - is 99% good okay? P{Single meal good} (0.99)10 0.9044 Family of four, once a month: P{All meals good} (0.9044)4 0.6690 P{All visits during the year good} (0.6690)12 0.0080 P{single meal good} (0.999)10 0.9900, P{Monthly visit good} (0.99)4 0.9607 P{All visits in the year good} (0.9607)12 0.6186 DOX 6E Montgomery 19 Six Sigma Focus Initially in manufacturing Commercial applications Banking Finance Public sector Services DFSS – Design for Six Sigma Only so much improvement can be wrung out of an existing system New process design New product design (engineering) DOX 6E Montgomery 20 Some Commercial Applications Reducing average and variation of days outstanding on accounts receivable Managing costs of consultants (public accountants, lawyers) Skip tracing Credit scoring Closing the books (faster, less variation) Audit accuracy, account reconciliation Forecasting Inventory management Tax filing Payroll accuracy DOX 6E Montgomery 21 Six Sigma A disciplined and analytical approach to process and product improvement Specialized roles for people; Champions, Master Black belts, Black Belts, Green Belts Top-down driven (Champions from each business) BBs and MBBs have responsibility (project definition, leadership, training/mentoring, team facilitation) Involves a five-step process (DMAIC) : Define Measure Analyze Improve Control DOX 6E Montgomery 22 What Makes it Work? Successful implementations characterized by: Committed leadership Use of top talent Supporting infrastructure Formal project selection process Formal project review process Dedicated resources Financial system integration Project-by-project improvement strategy (borrowed from Juran) DOX 6E Montgomery 23 The Process Improvement Triad: DFSS, Lean, and DMAIC OVERALL PROGRAMS • • • • DFSS Lean DESIGN PREDICTIVE QUALITY INTO PRODUCTS ELIMINATE WASTE, IMPROVE CYCLE TIME Robust Lead-time Design for Six Sigma LEAN Requirements allocation Capability assessment Robust Design Predictable Product Quality • • • • • Flow Mapping Waste Elimination Cycle Time WIP Reduction Operations and Design DMAIC ELIMINATE DEFECTS, REDUCE VARIABILIT Y Capable Variation Reduction • • • • • Predictability Feasibility Efficiency Capability Accuracy The “I” in DMAIC may become DFSS DOX 6E Montgomery 24 DFSS Matches Customer Needs with Capability Mean and variability affects product performance and cost Designers can predict costs and yields in the design phase Consider mean and variability in the design phase Establish top level mean, variability and failure rate targets for a design Rationally allocate mean, variability, and failure rate targets to subsystem and component levels Match requirements against process capability and identify gaps Close gaps to optimize a producible design Identify variability drivers and optimize designs or make designs robust to variability Process capability impact design decisions DFSS enhances product design methods. DOX 6E Montgomery 25 Lean Focuses on Waste Elimination Definition A set of methods and tools used to eliminate waste in a process Lean helps identify anything not absolutely required to deliver a quality product on time. Benefits of using Lean Lean methods help reduce inventory, lead time, and cost Lean methods increase productivity, quality, on time delivery, capacity, and sales DOX 6E Montgomery 26 DMAIC Solves Problems by Using Six Sigma Tools DMAIC is a problem solving methodology Use this method to solve problems: Define problems in processes Measure performance Analyze causes of problems Improve processesremove variations and nonvalue-added activities Control processes so problems do not recur DOX 6E Montgomery 27 11 Six Sigma DMAIC is closely related to the Shewhart cycle (variously called the Deming cycle, or the PDCA cycle) DOX 6E Montgomery 28