W4404: Regional climate and climate impacts
A discussion centered on
the US National Climate Assessment
4 March 2015
Outline
 Introduction to the National Climate Assessment
and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA),
[lots of web portals, online tools…]
 Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA
 A little science [dynamics of climate change in the
American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty
in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America
– Deser et al. 2012]
 A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of
the National Academies
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Outline
 Introduction to the National Climate Assessment
and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA),
[lots of web portals, online tools…]
 Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA
 A little science [dynamics of climate change in the
American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty
in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America
– Deser et al. 2012]
 A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of
the National Academies
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
US Global Change Research Program
integrates findings about climate, impacts, adaptation
into a National Climate Assessment
which by law has to be prepared and provided
to President and Congress every 4 years.
US Departments of:
Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State,
Transportation, Health and Human Services, Agriculture
US Government Agencies:
NASA, NSF, USAID, EPA
+ Smithsonian Institution
are all contributors to the NCA.
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
“National climate assessments act as status reports about
climate change science and impacts.
They are based on observations made across the country
and compare these observations to predictions from
climate system models.
The NCA aims to incorporate advances in the understanding of
climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems,
and with this provide integrated analyses of
impacts and vulnerability.”
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview
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The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) assesses the physical
scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
[… changes in emissions; observed and projected changes
in climate, causes and attribution of climate change…]
The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) assesses the vulnerability
of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change,
negative and positive consequences of climate change,
and options for adapting to it.
The IPCC Working Group III (WG III) assesses options for
mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing
greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that
remove them from the atmosphere.
http://www.ipcc.ch/working_groups/working_groups.shtml
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Goals of the NCA
“The NCA will help evaluate the effectiveness of our mitigation
and adaptation activities and identify economic opportunities
that arise as the climate changes.
It will also serve to integrate scientific information from multiple
sources and highlight key findings and significant gaps
in our knowledge.”
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview
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NCA – climate change impacts and regions
Our changing climate
Sectors
Regions
Response strategies
http://www.globalchange.gov/explore
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Table of contents (p.1/2)
Introduction: Letter to the American People
1. Executive Summary
“physical climate basis”
2. Our Changing Climate
sectoral approach
Introduction to Sectors
3. Water Resources
4. Energy Supply and Use
5. Transportation
6. Agriculture
7. Forestry
8. Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services
9. Human Health
10. Water, Energy, and Land Use
11. Urban Systems, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability
12. Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and
Native Lands and Resources
13. Land Use and Land Cover Change
14. Rural Communities
15. Interactions of Climate Change and Biogeochemical Cycles
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Table of contents (p.2/2)
regional approach
Introduction to Regions
16. Northeast
17. Southeast and Caribbean
18. Midwest
19. Great Plains
20. Southwest*
21. Northwest
22. Alaska and the Arctic
23. Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands
24. Oceans and Marine Resources
25. Coastal Zone Development and Ecosystems
Introduction to Response Strategies
26. Decision Support: Supporting Policy, Planning, and
Resource Management Decisions in a Climate Change Context
27. Mitigation
28. Adaptation
29. Research Agenda for Climate Change Science
30. The NCA Long-Term Process: Vision and Future Development
Appendix I: NCA Climate Science - Addressing Commonly Asked Questions
from A to Z
Appendix II: The Science of Climate Change
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Draft for Public Comment
1
2
Chapter 2 – Our Changing Climate
(v. 11 Jan 2013)
NCA,
Ourtemperature
changing
climate
increases inCh.2
emissions; –
the largest
increases are
projected for the upper
Midwest and Alaska.
anyone familiar w/
this feature?
the “warming hole” –
3
4
Figure 2.6: Observed U.S. Temperature Change
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Caption: The colors on the map show temperature changes over the past 20 years
in °F (1991-2011) compared to the 1901-1960 average. The bars on the graphs
show the average temperature changes by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the
1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar in each graph (2000s
decade) includes 2011. The period from 2001 to 2011 was warmer than any
previous decade in every region. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data
from NOAA NCDC. )
12
13
14
Future human-induced warming depends on both past and future emissions of heattrapping gases and changes in the amount of particle pollution. The amount of climate
change (aside from natural variability) expected for the next two to three decades is a
see Meehl, Arblaster and
Branstator 2012,
in J Climate
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
1
2
will move north, with increasing frequencies of years without subfreezing temperatures in
the most southern parts of the U.S.
NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Figure 2.9: Observed Changes in Frost-Free Season
Caption: The frost-free season length, defined as the period between the last
occurrence of 32°F in the spring and the first occurrence of 32°F in the fall, has
increased in each U.S. region during 1991-2011 relative to 1901-1960. Increases
in frost-free days correspond to similar increases in growing season length.
(Figure source: NOAA/NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from Kunkel et al. 2012a, 2012b,
2012c, 2012d, 2012e, 2012f).
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11
12
13
14
15
early half of the record drier. There are important regional differences. For instance,
precipitation since 1991 (relative to 1901-1960) increased the most in the Northeast (8%),
Midwest (9%), and southern Great Plains (8%), while much of the Southeast and
Southwest had a mix of areas of increases and decreases (McRoberts and NielsenGammon 2011; Peterson et al. 2012).
NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate
16
17
Figure 2.11: Observed U.S. Precipitation Change
18
19
20
21
22
23
Caption: The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent)
for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in
most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show
average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 19011960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source:
NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.)
DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMENT
42
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate
1
2
Figure 2.16: Percentage Change in Very Heavy Precipitation
3
4
5
6
7
Caption: The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling
in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to
2011 for each region. There are clear trends toward a greater amount of very
heavy precipitation for the nation as a whole, and particularly in the Northeast and
Midwest. (Figure source: updated from (Karl et al. 2009) with data from NCDC)
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate
many more analyses/maps, on:
Flooding magnitude, drought extent
Hurricane frequency and intensity
Arctic sea ice extent
Sea level rise
…
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Outline
 Introduction to the National Climate Assessment
and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA),
[lots of web portals, online tools…]
 Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA
 A little science [dynamics of climate change in the
American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty
in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America
– Deser et al. 2012]
 A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of
the National Academies
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
NCA – climate change impacts and regions
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
The National Climate Assessment
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report
For your region, jot down:
 The most significant exposure, i.e. current and projected
climatic impact
 Exacerbating factors, i.e. projected increases in exposure,
current/future sensitivity
 Primary economic sector affected
 Adaptation strategies, including possible gains from CC
 Efforts to tackle mitigation
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Some common threads:
 Attention to current regional “climate problems”,
recent anomalies
 Attribution of recent trends is explicit
 Concern about US vulnerability is comparable to that of
many developing countries
 Disconnect with CC policy/political discourse
in Washington, US position in the global arena (?)
…
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
NOAA’s goals:
[a national climate service?]
Climate adaptation and mitigation
Weather-ready nation
Healthy oceans
Resilient coastal communities and economies
http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/goals/
Also see: http://www.climate.gov/
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
NOAA’s goals:
Climate adaptation and mitigation
• Objective: Improved scientific understanding of the changing
climate system and its impacts
• Objective: Assessments of current and future states of the climate
system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service,
and stewardship decisions
• Objective: Mitigation and adaptation efforts supported by sustained,
reliable, and timely climate services
• Objective: A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities
to a changing climate and makes informed decisions
http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/goals/
Also see: http://www.climate.gov/
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NOAA/Monitoring/Observations
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2014/13
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NOAA/Adaptation
Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program
http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms/ClimateandSocietalInteractions/
RISAProgram.aspx
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Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast
>> Malgosia Madajewicz – guest lecture next week Monday
[consider this to be the
exposure layer of
vulnerability]
http://www.ccrun.org/
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… Recall the US CO2 emissions “bubble” from last time
[slide #9]
This is its evolution since 1990
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2014.pdf
www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo >> annual energy outlook
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
U.S. emissions per capita and per dollar of GDP
>> not only an increase in efficiency
What changes
to the economy may
account for this drop?
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2014.pdf
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
David Owen
Green Manhattan
The New Yorker 2004
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Outline
 Introduction to the National Climate Assessment
and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA),
[lots of web portals, online tools…]
 Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA
 A little science [dynamics of climate change in the
American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty
in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America
– Deser et al. 2012]
 A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of
the National Academies
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Model projections of an imminent transition
to a more arid climate in Southwestern North America
Seager, R., et al. 2007. Originally published in Science Express on 5 April 2007
Science, vol. 316 no. 5828 pp. 1181-1184. doi: 10.1126/science.1139601
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
A mechanisms-based approach to detecting
recent anthropogenic hydro-climate change
Seager and Naik 2012, in J Climate
Also recall Hall 2014, in Science
>> March 30 lecture, on precipitation in climate change
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Model projections of an imminent transition
to a more arid climate in Southwestern
North America
(i) a contribution from the change
in mean circulation [dynamics]
(ii) a contribution from the change
in mean humidity [thermodynamic]
(iii) a contribution from eddies
Seager et al. 2007, in Science
News items at www.ldeo.columbia.edu
Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years:
uncertainty due to internal variability
Linear trends 2010-2060 for single simulations in a
large ensemble
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Deser et
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in J. Climate
CCSM3"ensemble"members."
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EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
Recall that the mid-latitude winter is characterized by:
strong internal variability [low predictability]
951"
single run with
"
least
most
warming
996"
Runs with contrasted
trends in SLP
"
positive
negative
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953"
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"
Figure"3."Total"2010Q2060"SAT"trends"(left)"decomposed"into"internal"(middle)"and"
forced"(right)"components"for"two"contrasting"CCSM3"ensemble"members."Results"
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
shown"for"a)"winter,"runs"16"and"22;"and"b)"summer,"runs"3"and"31."Color"bar"units"
Outline
 Introduction to the National Climate Assessment
and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA),
[lots of web portals, online tools…]
 Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA
 A little science [dynamics of climate change in the
American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty
in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America
– Deser et al. 2012]
 A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of
the National Academies
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
America’s Climate Choices (2011)
-- a report of the National Academies
The United States lacks an overarching national strategy
to respond to climate change
Climate change poses significant risks for a wide range of
human and natural systems
The climate system is highly complex, as are the human
institutions that are affected by and that must respond to
climate change.
Iterative risk management is a flexible and powerful approach
for addressing the complex challenges of climate change.
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015
List of additional resources
US Global Change Research Program
http://www.globalchange.gov/
National Climate Assessment
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/indicators
National Academies: America’s Climate Choices
http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/sample-page/panel-reports/
americas-climate-choices-final-report/
www.climate.gov
http://www.climate.gov/decision-support
http://www.climate.gov/decision-support/department/decision-support-tools
http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/state-and-local-plans
Energy Information Administration
http://www.eia.gov/state/maps.cfm
EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015