Chinese Drought, Bread
and the Arab Spring
Beijing, 2013
Natural hazards – food security – political stability
Troy Sternberg
Geography
University of Oxford
Great Wall
Selden Map, ca 1620
‘Barbarians to the north’
China . . .
• 22% of world’s people, 7% of water
• 4 million km2 – largest dryland country in Asia
• 60% agricultural production in northern China,
12% of the water
• Farmland – decreased >6% 1997-2006
• > 50% urban
Climate change – 1.50C temperature increase
Climate hazards:
2008
– ice storms, 77 million people
2009-10 – drought in south, 60 million people
2010
– floods, 134 million people
Drought
problem
solution
Grandpa Wen’s Forest
before
after
Globalization of hazards:
Chinese drought, Bread and the Arab Spring
Egyptian change – political and economic causes
High cost of living
40% poverty rate
Bread as a symbol of protest
WHEAT
‘Non-political Bread
Riots are Breaking Out
in Egypt, Killing Three’
Wall Street Journal,
Feb 01, 2011
WHEAT
Role of the global market
2010 – decrease in world wheat production by major exporters
Russia, Ukraine – drought, extreme heat
Canada – cold, excessive rain
Australia – excessive rain
Changing climate patterns – El Nino, Pacific Oscillation
Only 6-18% of wheat harvest exported
2010 Wheat Production
Country Metric tons Increase/
(in '000s) decrease
China
114,500
-0.54%
US
60,103
-0.44%
Russia
41,500
-32.74%
Canada
23,167
-13.71%
Ukraine
16,850
-19.38%
Australia
13,500
-8.72%
2010 Wheat Imports
Rank Country Metric tons
(in '000s)
1
Egypt
9,800
2
Brazil
6,000
3
Algeria
5,300
4
Indonesia
5,300
5
Japan
5,200
Egypt – wheat low-value crop
Grew higher value flowers and mangoes for export
Egypt
3% of GDP spent on wheat subsidies
1/3 of calories from bread
‘Bread Intifada’ 1977
Bread riots – 2008
August 2010 –Russia stops wheat export to Egypt
Army runs wheat distribution system
•Egypt imports from majors, Argentina, Romania, Kazakhstan…
China
largest wheat producer/consumer
usually self-sufficient
largest foreign reserves
Nov. 2010 – lack of rain
concern about winter wheat (22 - 90% of total) crop failure
China buys wheat on international market
Government maintaining ‘social stability’
Wheat region
Shangdong, Henan, Anhui –
250+ million people
Drought
Standard Precipitation Index
through Feb. 28, 2011
Months
Anqing
Anyang
Bengbu
Bozhou
Dongtai
Huoshan
Jinan
Laohekou
Nanjing
Wuhan
Xinyang
Zhenzhou
1
-0.85
-0.48
-1.63
-1.37
-1.94
-0.72
-0.75
-1.26
-1.33
-1.21
-1.71
-0.85
2
-0.56
-1.19
0.01
-2
-0.67
-0.96
-1.26
-1.5
-0.9
-1.32
-2.6
-1.65
3
-1.41
-2.1
-1.05
-3
-1.77
-2
-2.1
-2.1
-1.86
-1.93
-2.7
-2.7
SPI drought values:<-1 moderate, <-1.5 severe,
<-2 extreme drought
Mckee et al. 1993, Wu et al. 2005, Sternberg et al. 2010
Central Agricultural region – 525 million people
Drought timescale
‘worst in communist party history’
3 month
6 month
Government - $1.9 billion aid, irrigation, wells, water delivery
Effect of drought on
global wheat prices
Wheat imports per capita
2010 - Wheat Imports per Capita
Per Capita
Rank Country Metric tons
Income Food - %
per million
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
220% increase
UAE
Libya
Israel
Jordan
Algeria
Tunisia
Yemen
Egypt
Iraq
Cuba
370.659
242.803
238.968
173.611
101.439
89.330
86.843
81.284
76.701
70.503
US$ of income
47,400
9
12,062
37
27,085
18
4,435
41
4,477
44
4,160
36
1,230
45
2,771
39
2,625
35
5,000
n/a
Countries impacted
Future?
_______________________
Sternberg, T. 2011. Regional Drought has a global impact. Nature. 472:169
Sternberg, T. 2012. Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring. Applied Geography, 34: 519-524.
New York Times, March 3, 2013 – Opinion-Editorial
Soybeans
• 60% of world’s soybeans exported to China
• 83% of soybeans imported from US, Brazil, Argentina
• 16% demand increase - record 69 million metric tons
pigs
cows
chickens
Meat consumption quadrupled in 30 years, 75% protein from pork
Litres of water needed per kg:
vegetables - 322, pork - 6,000, beef 15,400
Environmental Challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
300 million people live on <$2 / day
70% water unfit for human touch
North China – half groundwater unfit for industry
Coal processing consumes 1/6th of China’s water
Pollution – northerners die 5.5 years earlier (coal heating)
Air – Beijing ‘worst in world’? Particulate reaches US
20-30% cropland contaminated (arsenic, lead, mercury etc)
Food safety/security
China - 34% income on food. UK – 9%
• 64% $ millionaires seeking 2nd residency
Arsenic in Yunnan
Environmental rehabilitation
•
•
•
•
$635 billion on water projects, e.g. South-to-North canal
$76 billion on air
$5 billion on soil
$35 billion desertification
Drinking water for Beijing ‘pipeline from Lake Baikal’
Chinese Academy of Sciences, May 2014
Agricultural
land
Model
anti-desertification
Role for the UK ?
Britain used as model for China
‘London's air pollution policies may help Beijing’ China Daily, 2013
Expertise, technology
Environment, Water, Food
Thank you