Chapter 10: National Security
PS130 World Politics
Michael R. Baysdell
Saginaw Valley State University
Defense: United States
19% of United States Federal Budget
 1.4 Million active duty in 5 services
 1.2 Million reserve
 Joint Chiefs of Staff report to President
 Volunteer Military with registration
 Between 1700 and 2200 nuclear warheads
 NATO Member
 Committed by Treaty to also defend Japan,
South Korea, Australia, OAS
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Mandatory and Discretionary Spending
Federal Spending
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Mandatory spending refers
to money that lawmakers
are required by law to
spend on certain programs
or to use for interest
payments on the national
debt. Includes Social
Security, Income Security,
Medicare, Debt Interest,
Veterans benefits
2%
15%
1%
16%
1%
1%
0.7%
2%
2.5%
3%
23%
8%
12%
14%
Defense
Health
Discretionary spending is
Medicare
Science, space and
technology
Income security
spending about which
Energy, natural
Social Security
government planners can
resources,&environment
Veteran’s benefits
make choices. VERY small!!
Agriculture
Administration of Justice
(Education, Employment,
Other
Transportation
Social Services,
Net interest
Education
Transportation, Justice,
Note: Because of rounding, totals may be less or greater than 100%.
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States
Environment
History of Defense Dep’t
1789: Department of the Army
 1789: Department of the Navy
 Merged 1947, into Department of Defense
under 1 civilian secretary
 2002: NorthCom created to partially overrule
Posse Comitatus Act of 1878
 2003: Department of Homeland Security
 2006: National Missile Defense activated
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Recent U.S. Military
Deployments
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US has used force in history over 200 times, from small covert actions to
World War II
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1983: Grenada
1986: Libya (1981/86 shootdowns; 86 attack after nightclub bombing, led
to Pan-Am 103)
1989: Panama
1990-91: Persian Gulf War
1993: Somalia
1995: Bosnia
1999: Kosovo
2001: Afghanistan
2003: Iraq
2005: Liberia
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Current Issues in Defense
 Preemption
strategy
 Iraq
 Draft—highly
unlikely; not favored by
Pentagon
 New threat: Terrorism
U.S. Membership in Organizations
 United
Nations, 1945 (World Bank, IMF
WHO, all UN organizations exc. ICC)
 Rio Treaty leads to OAS, 1947
 NATO, 1949
 ANZUS, 1951 (New Zealand inactive)
 SEATO now dead
 NAFTA w/Canada and Mexico
War: The Human Record
War is as ancient as humanity
– Increase in frequency: almost 1,000 wars during
the last millennium
– 30% of all wars have occurred in last 200 years
 Severity also on the rise
– 75% of all war deaths have occurred since 1900
– Continued threat of nuclear war
 Lower percentage of countries involved in
international conflict– higher percentage of countries
involved in civil conflicts
 Concept of a “just war”
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“Just Wars”—St. Augustine
 Just
wars are usually defined as those which
avenge injuries, when the nation or city against
which warlike action is to be directed has
neglected either to punish wrongs committed
by its own citizens or to restore what has been
unjustly taken by it.
 Further, that kind of war is undoubtedly just
which God Himself ordains.“
 Analysis of some recent conflicts
What Causes War?
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Dissatisfied with status quo (Hitler and Versailles Treaty)
Nationalism/Jingoism
Self-defense
Collective self-defense/Help a helpless 3rd party
Perception of leaders (Galtieri, Hussein)
Preemptory strikes more effective, self-defense implications (Bush 43 and Iraq)
Religion
Conquest (outlawed by UN Charter)
Parity—both sides are evenly matched and think it would be possible to beat the other
Preponderance—one side really believes it can clean the other side’s clock
Xenophobia—fear of foreigners (unites citizens)
No single root cause of war
Each level of analysis sheds some light on the question of why we fight
– System-level
– State-level
– Individual-level
What Promotes Peace?
Interdependence—if you really need
something from the other state, you can’t risk
war
 Alliances—collective security mechanisms
make aggressors less likely to attack
 Communication (Prisoner’s Dilemma
hampers)
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Prisoner’s dilemma
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Two prisoners are accused of a crime.
If one confesses and the other does not, the one who confesses will be
released immediately and the other will spend 20 years in prison.
If neither confesses, each will be released.
If both confess, they will each be jailed 5 years.
They cannot communicate with one another.
Given that neither prisoner knows whether the other has confessed, it is in
the self-interest of each to confess himself.
Paradoxically, when each prisoner pursues his self-interest, both end up
worse off than they would have been had they acted otherwise
Demonstrates how many conflicts are caused by system-level factors,
although all 3 levels of analysis offer insight into why war happens
System-Level Causes of War
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Distribution of power
– Number of poles and their relative power
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Anarchical nature of the system
– Self-help system creates a tension-filled cycle of
escalating arms -> tensions -> arms -> tensions
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Economic factors
– Global patterns of production and use of natural
resources
– Increasing gap between rich and poor
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Biosphere stress
– Limited resources, such as water or oil
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State-Level Causes of War
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Militarism
– Belief that the nature of modern politics has deep
military roots
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Externalization of internal conflict
– Diversionary war: When governments try to consolidate
their power by fomenting tensions with other countries
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Type of country
– Nature of political structure (authoritarian versus
democratic) and economic resources
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Political Culture
– Influence of the historical experiences and religious
beliefs that construct the14national identity
Individual-Level Causes of War
 Human
Characteristics
– Instinctual human behaviors, such as
territoriality
– Human aggression stemming from stress,
anxiety, or frustration
 Individual
Leaders
– Importance of individual personalities:
 Risk-taker
or cautious conservative
 Influence of individual experiences and emotions
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Lessons from Byzantium
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Edward Luttwak, who says he has studied Byzantine documents and other writings
for two decades, advises Americans to learn 7 lessons from Byzantium. They are:
1. Avoid war by every possible means ... but always act as if war might start at
anytime. ... Train intensively and be ready for battle at all times.
2. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his mentality, and monitor his actions
continuously.
3. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and defensively, but avoid battles,
especially large-scale battles.
4. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation of countries with maneuver warfare
-- lightning strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies.
5. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting allies to change the balance of power.
Diplomacy is even more important during war than peace.
6. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So cheap, in fact, as compared with
the risks and costs of battle that it must always be attempted. ... Remember: Even
religious fanatics can be bribed.
7. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough and fighting is unavoidable, use
methods and tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid consuming combat
forces, and patiently whittle down the enemy's strength."
Effectiveness of Force: Evaluating Its
Success by Utilitarian Standards
 Measurement:
– Cost/benefit analysis
 What
are the trade-offs?
 No objective way to measure the costs of loss
of human life, human anguish, and economic
destruction
– Goal attainment
 Were
with?
the goals rational and legitimate to begin
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Conditions for the Successful Use of Force
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Clearly defined, long-standing, and previously demonstrated commitment
Strong commitments, publicly announced by leaders
Military force used to counter other military force, not to control political events
Force used early and decisively instead of through extended threatening and slow
escalation
Clearly established goals
Secure domestic support for actions and goals
Develop a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement
Use overwhelming force, get in and get out
Powell Doctrine (named after U.S. General Colin Powell during the run-up to the
Persian Gulf War in 1990-91)
Powell Doctrine asserted that all of these above conditions must be present to
achieve military and political success when using armed forces
Opponents of the Iraq War claim Bush administration failed to follow several
principles of Powell Doctrine in launching war against Iraq in 2003 and the military
occupation of the country through 2007.
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The Changing Nature of War
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Technology has increased killing power--Civil War Minie Ball
and Ironclads changed war worldwide
Nationalism has increased numbers and intensity of wars
Technology and nationalism have expanded scope of war
More expensive
More diverse population now participates, suffers
More civilian casualties
Strategy has changed
– Power to defeat is the traditional goal
– Power to hurt increasingly important
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Classifying Warfare
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Offensive versus defensive:
– Not always this simple
Mutual-responsibility warfare (World War I mobilization)
 Description of World War I situation
 Where does preemptive war fit?
 Legitimacy of Bush Doctrine justifying preemptive war in Iraq
in 2003 hotly debated
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Four categories of international conflict:
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–
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Terrorism
Unconventional force
Conventional force
Weapons of mass destruction
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Terrorism
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No widely accepted definition of terrorism
Terrorism is best understood as:
– a form of political violence
– carried out by individuals, by NGOs, or by relatively small groups of
covert government agents
– specifically targeting civilians
– using clandestine attack methods
– having the power to harm people and create fear by targeting civilians
an damaging facilities, and systems involved in transportation, trade,
and energy production.
– as an effort to influence domestic and global politics and the foreign
policies of targeted nation
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Important Objections to This
Understanding of Terrorism
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Can noble ends justify terrorist means?
– In other words, is one man’s terrorist another
man’s freedom fighter?
– Do the ends ever justify the means?
– How important is the intent?
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Can actions taken by uniformed military force
be classified as terrorism?
– When are military actions not acceptable, under
any circumstances?
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Sources of Terrorism
State terrorism:
•
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Transnational
terrorism:
Carried out directly by
an established
government;
clandestine operators
National governments
and leaders are held
responsible
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Carried out by
international
nongovernmental groups
al Qaeda most famous
example
Terrorist Weapons and Tactics
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Conventional weapons of terrorism:
– Many terrorist attacks still use guns and bombs
– 9/11 tactics fit this category
– Suicide car , truck, and body carrying bombs and explosives targeting
public transportation systems and "soft targets" such as discotheques
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Radiological terrorism:
– The use of nuclear weapons is unlikely, but the use of a “dirty bomb” or
destroying a nuclear power plant are much more realistic
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Chemical and biological terrorism:
– Need to be concerned: Chemical weapons have been used before (Tokyo
subway)
– Need to remain calm: Increased awareness, vigilance, and security
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measures with this form of terrorism
in recent years
Causes of Terrorism
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System-level analysis:
– Product of the global unequal distribution of wealth
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State-level analysis:
– Result of national alliances that breed tension
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Individual-level of analysis:
– Driven by human nature, by psychology, and by an
individual’s personal experiences
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Causes of Terrorism,
continued
Terrorism continues because it is effective and is
often seen as the only option
 Important role of globalization and spreading
technology–with both weapons and
communications
 Seen as a low-risk, cost-effective, and potentially
high-yield means of winning useful tactical
objectives, such as massive publicity, freeing of
political prisoners, and so on
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Combating Terrorism
 Current
emphasis is on diplomacy,
intelligence gathering, national law
enforcement, and military actions
 Not much focus on addressing the root
causes of terrorism, such as poverty
alleviation and economic development
– Major criticism of U.S. “war on terror”
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Unconventional Force
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Arms transfers: Destination and sources
– Mostly to LDCs/Mostly from EDCs
– Can help LDCs meet defense needs and boost the economy of EDCs
Arms transfers: Drawbacks
– Cost
– Increased risk of regional violence and warfare, sparking a regional arms
race among nations
– Maintaining authoritarian governments in power,
– Potential to face one’s own weapons
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Unconventional Force: Special Operations
Include overtly and covertly sending one’s
special operation forces (SOFs), intelligence
operatives, or paramilitary agents
 Small-unit activities, such as commando
operations and intelligence gathering
 Increased use of SOFs by U.S. government since
9/11 including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran
 Rumsfeld proposed loose rule sets for these
“trigger pullers”—probably a smart call
 Risks: possible escalation (Vietnam, Afghanistan)
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Conventional Force
 Overt
and coercive military intervention
 Norm
throughout most of history
 Involves
uniformed military personnel,
usually in large numbers
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Conventional Force: Goals and
Conduct
 War
is part of diplomacy, not a
substitute for it
 War should be governed by political,
not military, considerations
 War should be fought with clear political
goals
 Avoid unchecked escalation
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The Dangers of Escalation:
Standards to Avoid Unchecked Escalation
 Keep
lines of communication open
 Limit goals
 Restrict geographic scope
 Observe target restrictions
 Limit weapons used
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Warfare with
“Weapons of Mass Destruction”
Term invented after 1937 German Condor Legion
bombing of Guernica
 Includes nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons
 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) bans all
production, possession, and uses of biological
weapons, but they still pose a serious threat
 Chemical weapons are the most prevalent because
they are relatively easy and inexpensive to produce
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Nuclear Weapons
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Although the number of nuclear weapons has declined
since the end of the Cold War, a huge number of
powerful nuclear weapons exist in numerous states
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Russia and the United States remain the nuclear Goliaths
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China, France, Great Britain, India, and Pakistan all
openly possess nuclear weapons
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Iran, North Korea, and Israel have undeclared nuclear
weapons
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Debate over ease of construction/Iranian
capability*
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The Role of Nuclear Weapons
 Backdrop
of power and influence
 Deterrence
 Actual use–What are some possible paths?
– Irrational leader
– Calculated attack
– Last gasp nuclear war
– Inadvertent nuclear war
– Escalation
– Terrorist group obtains
a
nuclear
device
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Nuclear Deterrence, Nonproliferation and Strategy
 Three
main issues:
– How to minimize the chance of nuclear war?
– How to maximize the chance of survival if nuclear
exchange does occur?
– How to persuade nuclear nations that are not
signatories or not in compliance with the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to secure their
nuclear materials and technologies from the grasp
of terrorist organizations?
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Deterrence
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Persuading the enemy that attacking you is
not worth the cost
– Capability and credibility are critical
– Mutual assured destruction (MAD)
Deterrence through punishment
– Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUT)
Deterrence through damage denial or
limitation
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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies
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Economic and humanitarian assistance to non-compliant
nuclear nations and "rogue states" in exchange for these
nations agreeing to dismantle their nuclear weapons programs
and submit to international inspections of facilities by IAEA
Provision of technical assistance to non-compliant or "rogue"
nuclear nations to assist in dismantling and securing of nuclear
weapons, material, and technology
Diplomatic agreements to provide peaceful nuclear technology
to these rogue nuclear nations in exchange for their agreement
to halt and dismantle nuclear weapons programs
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Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Strategies
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Imposition of economic sanctions against "rogue
nuclear nations" that refuse to comply with the nonproliferation provisions of the NPT
Removal of economic sanctions against nations that
agree to give up their nuclear weapons programs
Enhanced on-site inspections of nuclear weapons
facilities by the IAEA
Threats of possible military strikes against nuclear
facilities of "rogue states"
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Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Strategies
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All of the previously mentioned strategies in play as
the U.S., EU, IAEA, and Russia negotiate with Iran
over its nuclear weapons program
All of the previously mentioned strategies under
consideration or implemented as U.S., China, Russia,
South Korea, and Japan negotiate with North Korea
over the fate of its nuclear weapons program
Combination of international diplomatic, economic,
technological incentives and sanctions convinced
Libya to abandon its nuclear weapons program in
2003
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Nuclear Strategy
 The
first-use option
 Missile
defense systems—Israel, U.S.
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Chapter Objectives: Checklist
After reading this chapter, students should be able to:
 1. Identify reasons for studying war and summarize the human record of war, including the
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incidence, death toll, frequency, and severity.
2. Discuss the causes of war by applying the three levels of analysis: system, state, and
individual.
3. Discuss how the nature of war has changed as a result of nationalism, technology, and
changes in strategies.
4. Be able to identify the different types of war.
5. Discuss the nature, limits, sources, and record of terrorism, as well as terrorist weapons
and tactics, causes of terrorism, and combating terrorism.
6. Understand unconventional warfare, including the benefits and drawbacks of arms
transfers and special operations.
7. Define and describe the goals and conduct of war, as well as ways to avoid unchecked
escalation.
8. Analyze the role of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in warfare.
9. Discuss how a nuclear war may start.
10. Understand nuclear deterrence and nuclear strategy.
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