DEMIFER: DEmographic and MIgratory Flows
affecting European Regions and cities
Johanna Roto
on behalf of the DEMIFER team
ESPON on the Road transnational event in Vilnius
November 11 2014
Demographic State
• At present > 1/4 of the NUTS2
regions in the ESPON area
experiences population decline
• Main demographic changes across
Europe:
• slowing of population growth
• Ageing of the population
• Decreasing growth rate of working
age population
• Increasing importance of intra- and
extra-Europe migration
Demographic State – Population change 2000-2007
Population change by main components
Population increase
Overall population increase
Positive migration balance & natural population decline
Negative migration balance & natural population increase
Population decline
Positive migration balance & natural population decline
Negative migration balance & natural population increase
Overall population decline
Regional differentiation
•
Therefore there is not one unambiguous effect of migration and
demography on the competitiveness of European regions and thus
Policy strategies
• Different types of regions face different challenges -> Policies stimulating i.e. mobility
may have different impacts on different types of regions
• Different challenges ask for different mix of policies
• Bundles of policies -> need for cross-sectoral thinking
TYPOLOGY OF REGIONS
Case studies
- Sub-regional variations
- More spatial detail
Typology of the Demographic Status in 2005
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Based on: share of both young
adults and elder population,
natural population change and net
migration rate.
Retaining favourable trends:
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Dealing with population decline:
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'Challenge of Labour Force'
'Challenge of Decline'
Challenging disparities:
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'Euro Standard'
'Family Potentials types'
'Challenge of Ageing'
'Young Potentials‘
Overseas
Projections
Impact of migration on population change and to labour force
 Three reference scenarios:
1. Status quo projection - the base period rates and flows
are held constant until 2050
2. No migration projection - the base period rates and flows
are held constant until 2050 but all migration rates and
flows are set to zero (This gives a natural increase only
projection)
3. Free movement within Europe but no extra-Europe
migration - the base period rates and flows are held
constant until 2050 but all extra-Europe migration rates
and flows are set to zero
Status Quo
• Under the Status Quo scenario
the population declines by 40
million over the 45 years.
• Over 75% of the regions are
gainers of migration, and in 1/4
of the regions the 2050
population size will be 30%
higher.
• Without changes in
demographic and migratory
flows, 1/3 of the regions will
face considerable population
decline (> 20% by 2050).
Future Trends in the Population Change – BSR - STQ
ET2050 - Baseline
• Both calculations based om
MULTIPOLES model
(CEFMR, IOM)
• Change of base year from
2005 to 2010
Policy scenarios
• Population scenarios are important devices for thinking
about alternative futures, taking into account both the
mutual relationship between demography & economy
and the linkages between economic & social policies and
demographic & migratory developments
• Policy scenario implications for:
• Mortality
• Fertility
• Migration
• Population ageing remains the most important
demographic challenge in all scenarios
Policy scenarios
Population Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios
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GSE: Large decreases in
mortality, large increases in
fertility. Migration levels and
regional inequalities increase
significantly.
EME: sustainable economic
growth and strong competitive
goals. Less favorable
developments in mortality and
fertility, large increases in
migration
LSE: relatively small decreases in
mortality, constant fertility patterns
and declining migration levels.
CME: low economic growth,
environmental challenges are not
met, and strong competitive goals.
Decreasing mortality & fertility,
constant migration levels
Development in the BSR region
Labour Force Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios
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The growth of the labour force does
not just depend on the size of the
working age population but also on the
level of labour force participation rates
(that are expected in general to be
high especially in Norden)
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GSE and EME: high economic growth
will lead to an increasing trend in
labour force participation rates.
LSE: the poor economic and
environmental developments lead to
falling activity rates everywhere
CME: activity rates are falling due to a
sustained economic downturn.
Disparities are growing
In the future a lot of regions will be
struck by a shrinking labour force. In
Norden the polarization bw major city
regions – rest of the country will
increase
Labour Force & Population Change in 2005-2050 – Scenarios for BSR
• Diverse pattern
• Nordic challenge with
increasing population but
decreasing labour force
• Similar development in
Scotland, North-East France
and in some Spanish regions
• Sjælland & Midtjylland (DK)
and Etelä-Suomi (FI) are the
regions with highest difference
bw population and labour force
change
Labour Force Change in 2010-2030 – ET2050
Some conclusion
• We believe policy and demography are linked.
• Different policy bundles will influence the direction of change in
future population of Europe, its countries and regions.
• If the status quo holds for the next forty years, Europe’s population
will decline and age .
• If successful policies, Europe’s population could grow by ~20%.
• If policies are not so successful, Europe’s population will hover around
500 million.
• No matter what scenario comes to fruition, life expectancies will
increase substantially and the populations of European regions will
age dramatically.
• Many regions will lose population through out-migration but the net
welfare of today’s population will be improved
Policy Bundles/Combinations - Migration
• Immigration
• May be an answer in many regions and help narrow the gap between
Eastern/Southern regions and Northern /Central Europe. But these
policies must be complemented by policies to help the integration of
newcomers (language, skills).
• Inter-regional migration
• Policies aimed at increasing mobility between European regions may
reduce cohesion, not increase it. Thus policies aimed to stimulate
migration are only effective as part of policy bundles to improve living
condition in poor regions (jobs, housing, schools).
• Extra-European migration
• Immigration policies to facilitate economic migration must be coupled
with successful integration policies to attract higher skilled migrants
Policy Bundles/Combinations - Labour Markets and economy
• Increasing number of persons and years on labour
market
• Policies aimed at increasing the age of retirement should be
combined with policies stimulating healthy behaviour
• Raising labour force participation results in decreasing
disparities only if the labour market performs well. Thus policies
to reduce gender equalities and improve work/child care balance
and integration of immigrants are needed for this.
• Economic growth/labour supply
• Growth in labour productivity can be raised by technology,
capacity building and investments in education and training, but
to be effective these measures need to be complemented by
measures to compensate the effects of ageing
In conclusion…
• Policies aimed at affecting demographic and migratory
flows should not be considered in isolation from other
policies, such as housing, labour market, integration of
migrants, education, innovation and environmental quality
Thank You!
The DEMIFER project team
• NIDI (The Hague, Netherlands) – Lead Partner, state of the art
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UNIVIE (Vienna, Austria) – Demographical typology
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Phil Rees, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett, John Stillwell
PBL (The Hague, Netherlands) – Scenarios & labour force change
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Daniel Rauhut, Johanna Roto, Lisa van Well
University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom) – Scenarios & population change
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Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska
Nordregio (Stockholm, Sweden) – Policy & Dissemination
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Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer
IOM/CEFMR (Warsaw, Poland) – Multipoles Projection
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Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper
Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer
CNR (Rome, Italy) – Case studies
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Frank Heins, Corrado Bonafazi, Giuseppe Gesano