What is a Quadrillion?
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Reality vs Promises
(Science vs. Political Science)
Dr James Smiley
How Much Energy Does The
World Use?
Where Does it Come From?
What are our options for the Future?
Can Renewable Energy save us?
Projected World Wide Energy
Needs
What is this?
How much is it?
“Let’s Define New Unit of Energy”
Energy=Power x Time
“1 Unit” =1000 Megawatts of electric power for 1 yr
“A typical large power plant”
ABOUT: 0.1 Quadrillion BTU’s
2200 Megawatt thermal energy for one year
9 million Megawatt-hrs electricity
15 million barrels of oil or ~50 super tankers per yr
3 million tons of coal ~ 36500 car loads per yr (train/day)
90 billion cubic ft of Natural gas per yr (~1 cubic mile)
1 ton Uranium per yr (about a 15”x15”x15” cube)
Energy for about 300,000 People in US for a year
World Wide Energy Needs
All Energy-Not just Electrical
Today-
~5000
“Units”
Growth 2%
~100 units/yr
2 a week!
~7200
“Units”
World Energy Consumption by
Source
~5000
Total Units
Today
Renewables
Today! <1%
“Approx Units”
1900
1150
1300 300
300
50
What about The United States
Consumption?
Sources?
Future Needs?
We use about 1000 Units!
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Total Energy domestic/Imported
300 units
30
30
~1000 “units” used today
230 units
Growth rate ~2%/year or
20 “units”
200 units
120 units
80 units
30 units ea
~10 units (<1%)
Imported oil
Canada
19%
Mexico & S.Ara. 10%/ea
Venezuela&Nig. 9%ea
Solar, Wind,
bio-mass
World Energy use by fuel type
Renewables 6% of
total (hydro, wood,
included.
Growing yes, but,
Percent shrinking?
Where is Crude Oil Consumed
(USA)
Personal Cars(About 10% of total energy) ~33%
Trucking
~20%
Planes and Ships
~10%
Chemical Products(over 4000)
~12%
Industrial Heat
~10%
Heat, Light, Electric Power
~8%
Miscellaneous
~7%
Products from Oil
Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems
dependent on oil, and transported by oil Power.
Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics,
Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach
Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking,
Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants,
Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring
Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food
Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers,
Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides,
Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume,
Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream,
Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes,
Yarn,……
Greenhouse Gas Emission
LIGNITE
COAL
OIL
NATURAL GAS
GHG
gCeq/kWh
SOLAR PV
HYDRO
BIOMASS
WIND
NUCLEAR
0
50
100
150
200
250
Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005
300
350
400
Let’s Look at Renewables!
They’ve been a goal for a long time!
They get a lot of political play; it’s politically correct!
They would reduce Greenhouse gases vs coal/oil
They won’t run out!
Can they eliminate dependence on foreign oil?
Can they save us?
State of the Union (Who said it? When?)
I urge the energy measures that I have proposed be made the first
priority of this session of the Congress. …..They will prevent the
injustice of windfall profits for a few as a result of the sacrifices of the
millions of Americans.
This must be the year in which we organize a full-scale effort to provide
for our energy needs through the 21st century. Let this be our national
goal: the United States will not be dependent on any other country for
the energy we need
….we plan to spend $10 billion in Federal funds over the next 5 years.
That is an enormous amount. But during the same 5 years, private
enterprise will be investing as much as $200 billion-- and in 10 years,
$500 billion--to develop the new resources, the new technology, the new
capacity America will require for its energy needs in the future.
Richard Nixon’s State of Union Address 1974
State of Union Address (Who said it? When?)
… our country finally has a national energy policy:
The windfall profits tax on crude oil has been enacted, and a massive
investment in the production and development of alternative energy
sources; Solar energy funding has been quadrupled, solar energy tax
credits enacted…. Ethanol production has been dramatically increased,
an amount that could enable ethanol to meet the demand for 10 percent
of all unleaded gasoline;
..it is essential that the Nation reduce its dependence on imported fossil
fuels and complete the transition to reliance on domestic renewable
sources of energy,…
…first step towards widespread introduction of renewable energy sources
and established an ambitious national goal for the year XXXX of
obtaining 20 percent of this Nation's energy from solar and renewable
sources. As a result of these policies and programs… investments in
renewable energy sources have grown significantly.
Jimmy Carter State of Union Address 1980
Renewable energy about 6% of Total
Distribution of
the 6%
Solar Heat
Wood stoves, etc
Ethanol
i.e. Niagara Falls,
Hoover Dam, Bonneville
Dam, etc 58%
Wind farms
(double this by 2008)
i.e. Lock 7, NYSEG
Mechanicville, etc
Government Subsidies
Federal research funding by fuel
2005 Energy Policy Tax Incentives
700
Clean cars $1.3B
600
Clean coal $2.9B
500
Efficiency $1.3B
400
300
Oil/Gas $2.7B
200
Renewables $3.2B
100
0
Nuclear
Fossil
10 year avg.
General Atomics Corp.
Energy
Efficiency
5 year avg.
Solar &
Renewables
FY02 Approps.
Fusion
Nuclear $1.6B
Elect infra $1.5B
U.S. DOE
Total: 14.5 Billion in 2005!
Why so little progress?
Energy Density is very low!
It’s the ENTROPY!
“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over
public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”
—Richard Feynman
One elephant and 100,000 mice have about the same biomass. Which
do you want to try to harness to move a railcar? It’s possible, but how
practical?
Area Required for “one unit” of power
Wind 3000 turbines
40-70 square miles
Solar Photovoltaic
40 square miles
Bio Mass Ethanol
6000 square miles
Bio Mass Wood
12000 square miles
Bio gas
800 million chickens!
Oil/Coal
About 1 square mile
Nuclear
0.3 square miles
Saratoga County 844 sq miles
Rhode Island 1000 sq miles
How to replace Foreign oil “300 units”
(Plus 20 new “units” in demand per year)
Options
Conservation (a must!-part of assumed growth of only 2%)
Renewables (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Hydro, Geothermal, Bio-mass)
Domestic Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Conservation:
Must be part of any plan
Some conservation in 2% growth
Doing pretty good! (Next chart) We need to do more!
Cars about 90 units. 10% increase in CAFÉ
saves 9 units when all cars converted (~10yrs)
Reduce our standard of living? Competitive economy
requires abundant energy
World energy demand is growing! (Without us!)
Conserve yes, but can’t save out of the crisis!
Energy Use and Cost
Population Growth
Flat, with
More Cars
TV’s
Electronics
Central air
Computers
“Standard of Living” vs Energy Use
Electrical Energy Use vs Quality of Life
1.0
80% of the world’s
population is
below 0.8 on the
UN’s Human
Development
Index (HDI)
0.6
Prosperity
UK
France
U.S.
Germany
China
Japan
Russia
Canada
Australia
India
Education
Pakistan
Life span
0.3
4,000
8,000
12,000
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita
Why growth in demand?
China, India, Brazil(CIB)
3 billion people
United States
300 million (1/10th)
China, India, Brazil
~1200 kwh/capita
USA
~12000 kwh/capita
When CIB usage goes from 1200 to 2400 kwh/capita,
we would have to go “0” to keep world demand constant!
CONCLUSION: Conservation yes! But we can’t
save our way out of this!
Wind Power
Fuel is free, renewable, non-polluting, it’s relatively simple!
But:
Wind Power is Intermittent (20 to 40% capacity factor)
40 to 70 square miles (3000 turbines) for 1000 MW
But land may still be useable-pasture/crops/factories…
Diffuse energy creates integration/synchronization issues
Often not produced where needed-transmission
Not grid friendly, need storage or Coal/Nuclear backup!
Is it environmentally acceptable? On mountain peaks?
Near population?
Do as much as possible when feasible and economical.
Wind Installations
Total
Installed US
capacity
16.8 Unitsdelivering
about 5
units
electrical!
Photo of Maple Ridge
Tug Hill NY
Maple Ridge Wind Farm
195 Turbines
320 MW installed capacity
$550 Million cost
22000 Acres/34 sq miles
1.6 MW per turbine
Lewis County, Tug Hill Plateau 1600 to 2000 feet elev
Delivers about 0.1 “Unit” on average
Solar Power
(World total installed about “16 units”-delivers about “4 units”)
Lots of it, fuel is free, conceptually simple, passive
But:
Photovoltaic very costly per megawatt, high maintenance
Solar Thermal costly-need mirrors + heat sink (in the desert?)
Doesn’t work night/cloudy days, capacity factor less than 25%
Energy density extremely low- 40 square miles for 1000MW
Prime locations Southwest desert-far from users
Not Grid friendly, need storage or coal/nuclear backup
Home owners get 30% Fed tax credit
Best use-small scale passive home heating, hot water, remote areas
Solar Photovoltaic
Germany
6 MW
.006 “Units”
Nevada “planned”
6.3 MW
.0063 units
Mohave Desert
Solar Thermal
About 0.5 “units” max
capacity-0.1 “unit”
delivered. Cost $3 Billion
HYDROELECTRIC
Ideal for electric generation, very cost effective, no carbon
dioxide emission, relatively simple.
But:
Water distribution diffuse but nature concentrates for us
Not many remaining opportunities to exploit
Environmental concern? – damming of wild rivers?
Useful storage option where available-i.e. pump station
It’s great, use as much as possible, but will be
limited to about 5% of total needs (can we use
tides?)
Hydroelectric Plants
Hoover Dam
2 “Units”
Niagara Falls
2.4 Units-USA
2 “Units” Canada
GEOTHERMAL
Great source of zone heating and electric power where
available. (Like Iceland)
Large heat source deep in earths core, hard to get at,
hard to extract large quantities
Few accessible supplies-need both hot rocks and water
There is a 50 degree F heat sink 10 feet down! How to use it?
Do whenever feasible, but NOT readily available
Possibilities? Maybe!
Geothermal Plant
Nesjavellir Iceland
0.12 “Units” Plus hot water heating
Biomass
Burning wood, converting corn or soy beans into ethanol, use
vegetation to make diesel fuel, algae into diesel!
It’s an attractive concept!
It’s Renewable-can be replenished
Plants take Carbon Dioxide back out of the air
But:
Uses a lot of land, Competes food supplies
One acre of corn provides 40 or 50 gallons of Ethanol
May use more energy than produced?
One “unit” takes area greater than Rhode Island
Not a good solution!
OIL/GASOLINE
Provides 95% of Transportation, supports many Industrial
Products, Transportation infrastructure is in place
But:
High carbon dioxide emission
Cost rising rapidly
Supplies limited- peak oil? Oil shale possibility-costly
We need to import large amounts, economy vulnerable
We’re vulnerable to “blackmail with many dollars going to
our “enemies”
Use for Transportation and Industrial Production.
Drill-will need all we can get-Increase supplies!
Gap in Oil supply and need
Drilling and Crude oil Price
NATURAL GAS
Provides most of the home and commercial heating(cheapest
option), infrastructure in place, domestic supply, easily
transported. High energy content.
But:
Upward pressures on price/demand
Rapid growth in use for electrical generation; a more
expensive option
Usable for transportation, but need major infrastructure
Available supplies should be used for home and
commercial heating. Avoid excessive cost growth!
NEW ELECT CAPACITY(USA)
Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type
(1950-2004)
80,000
80,000
70,000
Name Plate Capacity MW
MWe
Other
Other
Petroleum
Petroleum
Hydro
Hydro
Nuclear
Nuclear
Gas Nat’l Gas
CoalCoal
60,000
50,000
40,000
40,000
“40 units”
30,000
“20 units”
20,000
10,000
0
1974
2001
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
1950
Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.
Coal
It currently provides nearly 50% of our electric power-lowest
cost. We have domestic supply.
(Remember when it was used for heating and transportation?)
But:
High Carbon dioxide emission
Mining and transport dirty and risky
Environmental impact-strip mining, emissions
Reality! Must remain a major energy source;
probably more than current 50%. Invest in “clean
coal technology”
X
Cost Comparison of Electrical Generation
12.0
2003 cents per kilowatt-hour
10.0
Solar(35cents)
Wind (6-9 cents)
Nuclear 1.72
Coal 1.80
Gas 5.77
Oil 5.53
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Nuclear Energy Institute
X?
New Coal Plant
Prairie States Plant Illinois-Planned
1.6 “Units” A newer clean coal plant
Nuclear Power
Provides 20% of our electric power; safe, clean, green, Equals
coal with lowest electricity fuel cost.
But:
No new plants for 20 years
Waste storage an issue-political?
New plants have high initial construction cost
Public acceptance
Nuclear must be a major source of future energy .
Can also be used for producing water and hydrogen. Can
breed new fuel when needed!
Typical Nuclear Power Plant
North Anna ESP Site
New Nuclear Plants
Country
# Under
Constructio
n
# Planned or
Proposed
Argentina
1
Brazil
1
Bulgaria
1
Canada
1
4
China
4
27
Czech
Republic
2
Egypt
Country
# Under
Construction
# Planned or
Proposed
Japan
2
12
N. Korea
1
1
S. Korea
8
Pakistan
1
Romania
1
3
Russia
4
9
Slovakia
2
1
So. Africa
1
Finland
1
Turkey
3
France
1
Ukraine
1
24
USA
2
Vietnam
4
Total
India
9
Indonesia
Iran
Israel
1
1
2
24
113
1
World Nuclear Association, world-nuclear.org
Uranium Supply
World Reserves! View of Options
Total use is 5000 “Units” per year
Oil-Use 2500 Units of Oil = ~40 billion Barrels/yr
Reserve is ~1300 billion Barrels =~35 to 50 years
Oil sand/shale maybe ~ 30 years more-expensive?
Coal-Use 1800 Units= 3 millions tons of coal
Reserve is ~ 900 billion tons = 200 to 300 years
Natural Gas-Use 1300 Units = 3Trillion Cubic Meters
Reserve is ~ 180 trillion Cubic Meters=60 to 80 years
Uranium- Use 400 Units
Reserve is ~ 200yrs to >>1000’s yrs (with breeding)
Summary
Coal must remain be a major source of our electricity.
Fix the CO2
Nuclear energy must become big player-Open Yucca, reprocess
Oil will be in Short Supply! Costs going up!
Use for transportation/industrial products
Natural gas should be used for home and commercial heating
Wind do as much as practical, develop storage
New capacity likely less than the “20 unit”/yr growth? (60,000 turbines/yr)
Solar and geothermal when economical-will be small players!
Biomass is wrong approach except in special situations
Conclusion
Do renewables when cost effective. They can reduce CO2
Renewables will not be major player in reducing oil dependence
Solar –costly, diffuse-best use-home heating/hot water
Wind viable, can help, but limited and not grid friendly
Bio-mass small player, doesn’t make sense
Making renewables focus is not reality
Obscures the hard choices
Coal & Nuclear will be the major players-do them right!
Oil / Gas will be scarce, prices will go back up! Domestic Drilling
BACKUP SLIDES
USA Energy Source/Use (%)
Note: 1% is about 10 of our new “Units”
US Energy Flow
Wind Turbine Usage Factor
Wind Speed and Power – Lee Ranch Colorado For Yr 2002
8760 hrs
Above 20 mph only
10% of time
10 mph
23 mph
Lee Ranch Colorado
Natural Gas Production and Price
Global Temperature
Maple Ridge Photo
Land Area Needed for 1000 MW
(1 “Unit”)
Low- emissions Options
Method
Requirement / Description
Photovoltaic
Wind
Biogas
Bio-oil
Biomass
100 km2 @ 10% efficiency
3,000 Wind Turbines @ 1 MW ea.
60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000 chickens
6,200 km2 of sugar beets
7,400 km2 of potatoes
16,100 km2 of corn
272,000 km2 of wheat
24,000 km2 of rapseed
30,000 km2 of wood
40
40 - 70
??
2,400
2,800
6,200
104,000
9,000
12,000
Nuclear
<1 km2
1/3
Bioalcohol
Land Area (sq. miles)
Need to Recognize Renewables have Low Energy Density
Idaho National Laboratory
General Atomics Corporation
Peak oil
Goal/Purpose of talk
1. Educate public about our energy crisis; how big is the problem,
how world energy demand effects it, …Put it terms that are
more understandable
2. Show what options are valid/which are not, based science, not
politics!
3. Put current political posturing/pandering on energy in
perspective
4. Briefly discuss pros and cons of the different options
Petroleum, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, et al
5. This is not a pro nuclear talk, but conclusion is that we should
pursue most options but coal and nuclear are only viable
solutions for foreseeable future.
Energy Reserves
1 ZJ=~10000 units
Use ~5000 units/yr
Strategic Oil Reserves
~700 Million Barrels Stored in the reserve
This equals about 45 of our “Units”
Use about 400 Petroleum “Units”/year
- About 40 to 50 days of reserve-total usage
Import about 300 Petroleum “Units”/year
-About 50 to 60 days of import equivalent
Peak Oil?
BTU Content
All of the following fuels are equivalent to
1,000,000 Btu's.
Electricity
kWh
(3412 Btu/kWh)
Natural gas:
1 Cubic Foot of Natural Gas = 1030 Btu's
1 CCF = 100 Cu Ft = 1 Therm = 103,000 Btu's
Propane:
1 Gal Propane = 91,600 Btu's
1 Cu Ft Propane = 2,500 Btu's
Gasoline:
1 Gal Gasoline (mid grade) = 125,000 Btu's
Ethanol:
1 Gal Ethanol = 76,000 Btu's
Fuel Oil:
1 Gal of #2 Fuel Oil = 139,000 Btu's
1 Gal of #4 Fuel Oil = 145,000 Btu's
1 Gal of #6 Fuel Oil = 150,000 Btu's
Natural Gas:
1 MCF, 10
therms or 1,000 cubic feet
Coal:
@ 12,000 Btu/pound
83.34 pounds
Propane
@ 91,000 Btu/gallon
10.917 gallons
Gasoline
@125,000 Btu/gallon
8.0 gallons
Fuel Oil #2
@ 139,000 Btu/gallon
7.194 gallons
Fuel Oil #6
@ 150,000 Btu/gallon
6.67 gallons
Wood
@ 3,500 Btu/pound
1 Gal .85 E=117,600 Btu’s (94%) gas
293.083
Gasoline ~ 20,000 Btu/pound
285.7 pounds
Energy Consumption
World Energy Consumption
About 5000 Total “Units”
1 TW approx 400 “units”
Approx
No. EQ
Units
2000
1600
1300
350
150
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Barrel of Crude Oil
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Historical Gas Prices
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Where Money Goes (2005)
Understanding the Energy Crisis
New York Gas Taxes
New York State
~33 cents
Local Sales Tax
~8 cents
Federal Tax
~19 cents
TOTAL
~60 cents per Gallon
Gasoline Taxes
State Taxes
cents/gal
Excise tax
8
Business Petro tax
16.4
State gas tax
8
Petro testing fee
.05
Oil spill tax
.3
Sub Total
32.75 Cents per gal
Federal Taxes
Excise tax
18.4
Superfund tax
.003
Oil spill tax
.0012
Sub Total
18.82 Cents per gal
County Sales tax
8 cents per gal- capped at 4% of $2
Total
59.57 cents per gal
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Where Does My Gas Money Go?
Add 7% for NYS tax
$0.60
$0.40
$0.35
$0.33
~$100 a barrel
$0.24
$0.24
42 Gal/Barrel
$2.10
$2.07
~$2.40 gal. of crude
68%
$3.30
$3.04
Electric Power Industry Fuel Costs
Reference: Energy Information Administration
Uranium in crust of earth
Solar Thermal Power Plant
Renewable Energy Distribution 2004
Renewable Energy 2006