Landbouwraad Japan
Sector Report <Japan>
Smart Agriculture – (1) Recent Developments
>> Duurzaam, Agrarisch,
Innovatief en Internationaal
ondernemen
Colophon
Sector Report – Smart Agriculture – (1) Recent Developments
Project #
14JAPTA4-SP
Prepared by
Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Tokyo
In corporation with
Seed Planning, Inc.
Cover Photo
©JNTO
Date
20|03|2015
1
Table of contents
COLOPHON
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
0
1
INTRODUCTION
1
2
OVERVIEW OF NEXT-GENERATION/SMART AGRICULTURE
2
2.1
2.2
MARKET FOR NEXT-GENERATION/SMART AGRICULTURE
2
MARKET OVERVIEW OF NEXT-GENERATION/ IT-BASED SMART AGRICULTURE
3
3
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF MAJOR PROVIDERS AND
COMMENTS ON MARKET OUTLOOK
11
Introduction
Circumstances surrounding Japanese agriculture can be summarized as follows:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The farming population is aging and demographic decline prevents the
number of farmers from remaining stable (the average age is 66 and less than
20,000 people a year become farmers),
Unused and abandoned farmland continues to grow (400,000 square meters
which is the equivalent of the area of Saitama or Shiga prefectures),
Concerns about Japan joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership which will result in
an increase in inexpensive imported agricultural produces,
Consumers’ concerns about “food safety” issues, such as the false labelling of
products and chemical residues,
The falling food self-sufficiency has resulted in a sense of crisis since this
fundamental industry can no longer sufficiently sustain the nation.
The Japanese government aims at exporting 1 trillion yen worth of agricultural
products annually by 2020.
The government has been promoting various measures to help make the
agricultural sector more competitive globally by encouraging people or firms to
enter the sector. The steps include combining small fields into larger plots,
abolishment of a policy designed to reduce rice fields, participation in the TPP talks
and reform of the national agricultural cooperative organisation known as the JA
Group. These are directly aimed at making farming a profitable and attractive
trade.
Farming or related services by companies in the sector are known as the “agribusiness” in Japan. Some of these companies are trying to produce agricultural
products as efficiently as possible like manufactured goods by making the most use
of information technology. Others provide farmers with new ideas or services both
in management and production.
This report covers the introduction of companies involved in the nextgeneration/smart agriculture and general market.
1
Overview of next-generation/smart agriculture
Market for next-generation/smart agriculture
The market for next-generation/smart agriculture is estimated at 13.1 billion yen in 2014. Of the total,
1.8 billion yen was agricultural cloud service related, 750 million yen for precise agriculture/GPS
guidance services and 520 million yen for sensing equipment (wireless sensor network systems) for
cultivated land. Greenhouse horticulture/ climate control equipment accounted for 550 million yen, 6
billion yen for plant factories and 3.5 billion yen for POS systems at farmer’s stores.
In the market for IT-based smart agriculture, projects launched in 2015 will mostly remain in a test
stage until 2016 and is likely to be put into full-scale operation in 2017 or later. Greenhouse
horticultural facilities and plant factories are projected to start full-scale operation in 2017. The overall
market for them is forecast to be at 42 billion yen in 2017 and rise to 70 billion yen in 2020 due
mainly to the start of full-scale cloud services.
<Market trend>
Market trend
Next-gen./smart agr.: IT
market
2014
2015
(projected)
2017
(projected)
2020
(projected)
20,000
25,000
32,000
-
1,800
（150.0）
3,800
（211.1）
8,500
（223.7）
28,000
（329.4）
GPS guidance/auto steer systems
750
1,500
1,850
2,000
Wireless senor networks
520
1,150
2,600
4,500
Horticulture/ climate control
550
800
7,500
11,000
Farmers’ store POS systems
(cloud)
3,500
4,400
7,800
8,000
Plant factories
Solar power/full-closed type
6,000
12,000
13,500
16,000
13,120
23,650
41,750
69,500
Agr. cloud: estimated based on
business plans of service providers
Cloud services (growth rate)
Total (millions of yen)
Source: Seed Planning
Next-Generation Smart Agriculture Market Size
(Millions of Yen)
Millionsof yen
■Plant factories (solar power/full-closed type)
■Farmers’ store POS systems/cloud
■Horticulture/growth environ control
■Wireless sensor networks
■GPS guidance/auto-steering systems
■Cloud services
2
Market overview of next-generation/ IT-based smart agriculture
Overview of market forecast based on elements discussed in the previous page by segment
Circumstances for next-generation IT-based smart agriculture will be established in 2017 by the
launch of a quasi-zenith satellite and other steps. By that time, smartphones and tablet computers will
be widely used by farmers and new entrants into the agricultural sector. Moreover, development of
machine-to-machine (M2M) and other methods will help analyze “Big data” easily. The market is
expected to grow to 67 to 69 billion yen a year by 2020. The market size will total 84 billion yen by
adding online sales.
2013/2014
2015/2017
・Growth based on systems suitable for local conditions.
IT-based farmer’s stores
・The market will peak in 2015 to 2016. Demand in 2017
and later will be replacements of current systems.
・The maximum spread will be 45% at farmer’s stores,
95% at Michino-eki (roadside stations). The market will
be worth 8 billion yen in 2020. The spread of cloud
services will be 35-40% at 3-3.5 billion yen.
・Systems: Cloud, M2M, websites
・Functions: Account control, traceability
・Places: Agri. coops, farmer stores, online
1.5 bil. yen
IT-based next-generation smart agriculture
・Systems: GPS guidance/environ control,
smartphones, tablets/websites/cloud/M2M
・Function: Field control, monitoring plant growth
・Places: Open fields, greenhouses
・Outlook: Robots, labor saving systems
～1.5 bil. yen
Nextgeneration
smart
agriculture
IT
agriculture
Plant factories: IT-based growing
・Systems: Environ control, wireless senor
networks, cloud, M2M, mobile
・Functions: “Food safety”, “Consuming locally
grown produce”, “Functional food (high addedvalue)
～6.5 bil. yen
・Many entrants, development based on links with cloud,
M2M, big data
・Consolidation of farmland (competitive farmers, basic
conditions for IT-based farming)
・From a test stage to actual application; IT agriculture will
fully grow by the launch of the satellite and other
infrastructures.
・Maximum spread will be up to 45% in horticulture, 2030% in open fields. 35% of agribusinesses will use smart
agriculture/IT systems: 5,500 firms ×4 million yen ＝2528 billion yen
・GPS guidance systems; 1.8-2 billion yen
・Wireless sensor networks; 4 to 4.5 billion yen
・Unless labor saving systems/robots are put in practical
use in 4-5years, the market will stagnate. At this moment
future prospect is not clear.→10% of 1.5 million farmers
will use such systems (2020 or later).
・Robots for agriculture will be used in 10 years, replacing
10% of agricultural machinery (2020 or later). - 5 billion
yen
・Due to demand for high yiled production, the market for
climate control equipment in greenhouse horticulture will
be worth 10 billion yen
・About 10 plant factories will be built a year to use idle
land plots effectively. 13-15 billion yen a year
IT-based distribution/sales
・Systems: POS, online sales spreading,
cloud, M2M, websites
・Functions: Food safety, traceability
・Demand is expanding rapidly to compete with low-priced
produce and duet to increased awareness of food
safety and traceability.
・Places: Farmer’s stores, large retailers
・Cloud systems (M2M) will be used by up to 5,000 firms,
～3.5 bil. yen
13 billion yen in 2014
including food processors, agribusinesses. The market
80-84 billion yen in 2020*
(including online sales, sales by retailers)
3
Next-generation/smart agriculture: market for cloud services
An increasing number of companies have begun to provide cloud services for next-generation
agriculture. Until 2012, large service providers such as Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi Solutions and
Agricompass had been the key service providers, and the range of their services was limited to mapbased field management/assistance to farmers. Varieties of their services expanded over the past
couple of years.
The market for cloud services in agriculture was estimated based on not only business plans of above
mentioned large companies but also interviews with other service providers. Although large service
providers plan to expand the market to 25 billion yen a year in 2015, the actual size of the market is
estimated at about 4 billion yen. The market is likely to grow sharply to 8-9 billion yen in 2017 and
28-30 billion yen in 2020. It is expected that up to 45% of greenhouse horticulture operators, and
30% of open field operators will use cloud services by 2020.
The market size figures presented below are estimated values based on the current cloud services,
number of farmers and expected maximum rates of penetration.
Market size: cloud services in agriculture
Estimated by key service providers
2014
-
Realistic size (billions of yen)
1.8
(Growth from 2014)
-
2015
2017
2.5
3.5
3.8
2020
-
8.5
2.1 times
4.7 times
28
15.6 times
Note: Figures in upper line projected by service providers and those in lower line by Seed Planning
Market size: cloud services in agriculture
agriculture
□Projections by key service providers
□Realistic forecast
Millions of yen
Forecast of IT-based agriculture by Innovation Theory
(Penetration rate will be 16%; rapid progress is expected after the passage of a valley of death)
Innovators: 2.5% of the market
Adventurous and eager to use novel things
Early Adopters: 13.5%
Sensitive to fashion and collect information. They are called
opinion leaders due to their significant influence over other
consumers.
Watershed of whether the product/service will be popular: 15-16% of the market
Early Majority：Initial followers
Relatively cautious, adopt novel things earlier than average of
society, accounting for 34% of the market
4
Late Majority：Late followers
Relatively skeptical, adopt things after a majority of people try
them, accounting for 34% of the market.
Laggards:
Most conservative, not interested in fashion and trends. They do
not adopt things until they become norm, being called
traditionalists.
2) Market for wireless sensor network/ climate control equipment
▶
Wireless senor networks (WSNs)
Wireless sensor networks are systems composed of multiple wireless devices with sensors, which are
installed at various places. Data on environmental and physical conditions are collected through
coordination of these devices.
A network of sensors can gather data in a specific area or 3D-space, which is impossible with a single
senor. Such a network helps the user clearly understand the complicated situation or environment.
This is one of the core technologies of M2M.
Wireless sensor networks have been developed as single systems in which seniors with a built-in
wireless function can exchange data each other. Lately, these sensors have been miniaturized, which
makes it easy to install them in automobiles and other mobile devices and equipment. This is pushing
WSN’s development.
▶
Wireless senor networks in agriculture
One of the typical wireless senor networks in agriculture is a field server. It is a small and highly
weather resistant web server for measuring. It can simultaneously measure temperature, humidity,
solar radiation volume, soil moisture, CO2 concentration and other conditions by linking environment
measuring sensors with monitor cameras.
Growers can also monitor the weather conditions and crop growth remotely and release them to
consumers on their websites.
Only labs and agribusinesses eager to use information technology have been using this type of
networks. But, since NEC, Fujitsu and other large service providers began to offer them as M2M based
cloud services, the network has been getting known gradually.
Greenhouse horticulture/ climate control equipment: Data collected by temperature, moisture, CO2
concentration and other sensors have automatically been sent to the cloud at regular intervals for
storage. Information of control equipment operations is also sent to it.
5
<Field server’s functions>
Sensors for outside weather:
Temperature, brightness,
rain, wind direction, wind
speed
Field server
Ventilation window
Ventilation window
Monitor camera
Solar radiation volume sensor
Soil moisture sensor
Growth,
Moisture sensor
Solar radiation volume sensor
open field, data
management Grower
Heater
Instrument interface
sensor
sensor
Others including
CO2 generator
CO2 sensors
sensor
CO2 monitor Temperature/moisture sensor
Source: Green report on greenhouse horticulture
6
<Market size>
Potential market for climate control equipment used in greenhouse horticulture (mainly solar powertype) is estimated at about 8,000 facilities.
Such equipment (wireless sensor networks) was launched at around 2008 for the greenhouse
horticulture market. Since then, farmers eager to adopt advanced technology have begun to use and
as a result, the market has been expanding.
Cumulative sales of the equipment totaled at 1.2 -1.3 billion yen (400-500 million yen a year) in
2013. Their sales are expected to start rising sharply in 2015 and later due to various promotional
steps for the greenhouse horticulture sector.
The market for such equipment for open fields is forecast at 1.15 billion yen in 2015, 2.6 billion yen
two years later and 4.5 billion yen in 2020. For greenhouse horticulture, it will be 800 million yen in
2015, 7.5 billion yen in 2017 and 11 billion yen around 2020. The market for greenhouse horticulture
and climate control equipment was estimated at about 500 million yen around 2014, the almost same
as that of the open field sensing market. The market for climate control equipment is likely to grow
sharply as the number of greenhouse horticulture operators will rise and plant factories will come onstream in full swing.
□Open field wireless sensor network
□Greenhouse horticulture/ climate control equipment
15 billion yen
in 2020, 15fold growth
from 2014
Millions of yen
<Barriers holding back use of wireless sensor networks>
Technological and cost barriers exist to hamper the use of wireless sensor networks.
Cost
Technology
Others
・
・
・
・
・
・
・
・
・
A limited number of service providers due to very specific applications
A network is made to order for each customer and cost sharing remains
unclear.
Sensors are expensive (small lot production) and initial costs are high.
Development based on various data interface by application
Data are not fully utilized.
Electromagnetic interference occurs in some areas.
Development of easy-to-use device for senior and other farmers
No killer applications exist.
Insufficient guidelines and lack of regulations
7
Market for GPS/guidance systems
<GNSS>
▶ GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System): GNSS is a satellite-based navigation system whose
satellites are moving around Earth on orbits 20,000 to 24,000 kilometers above the ground. Multiple
navigational satellites transmit signals to an unspecified number of receivers on the ground. The
receivers can identify their positions or routes. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan began to
call such systems GNSS in April 2011.
Such satellites include those of the US Global Positioning System or GPS, GLONASS of Russian,
European Union’s Galileo and Japan’s quasi-zenith satellite “Michibiki”. Three types of positioning
methods – single-point positioning, DGPS and RTK - are available, depending on accuracy required.
GPS run by the US operates 31 satellites on orbits 20,000km above the ground. It was initially
developed for military use but it is now open to civilian applications. The satellites move around Earth
for nearly 12 hours, constantly transmitting signals.
Civilian users can receive signals from 4 to 5 satellites. They can calculate the distances between their
antennae and the satellites based on the time of receiving signals, identifying their locations.
Calculations only based on signals from the satellites are not sufficiently accurate, and some
corrections are necessary to use as a precise navigational system.
<GPS guidance system market>
GPS is now widely used for car navigation systems and mobile phones. The system is getting popular
among rice, vegetable and dairy farmers.
GPS is believed to be one of the key technologies in response to consolidation of farmland, labor
saving and precise/smart agriculture.
<GPS applications>
Rice fields
Types of
work
Common
Vegetable/fruit fields
Dairy farmers
・Tillage, stamping
・Tillage, stamping soil,
・Pasture seeding
soil, leveling
leveling
・Applying fertilizer
・Ploughing and
・Fertilizer application
・Hay tedding
irrigating
・Pest control
・Hay harvesting
・Smoothing (GPS
・Seeding, pressing of wheat
・Dent corn control
leveler)
・Changeable fertilizing
・Applying compost
・Pest control
・Vegetable transplanting
・Applying soil
(vehicle)
・Applying snow melting agent
conditioner
Area measurement, checking work processes, work at night
<Market overview>
GPS guidance systems can locate the positions and directions of tractors and other agricultural
machinery like car navigation systems do for vehicles. Such guidance systems can also guide
machinery to preset routes.
8
Farmers began to use GPS guidance systems in around 1998 in Europe and the US. In Japan, they
were introduced from 2007 to 2008. Since then, the number of such systems in operation has been
rising steadily. Since auto steering systems to run the machinery straightforward based on route
guidance were put on the market in around 2009, the systems have been making inroads gradually.
In Japan, 890 GPS guidance systems were shipped in 2013 and 190 auto steering systems in the
same year. Of the total guidance systems, 780 or 87.6% were sent to Hokkaido, the northernmost
island of the country’s four major islands. 170 or 89.5% of the auto steering systems were headed for
Hokkaido. The GPS guidance systems shipped totaled 3,400 for three years through 2013. 3,120 or
90.1% of them were for Hokkaido.
It is noticeable that shipments of auto steering systems began to surge from 2011.
These systems are thought to be indispensable to manage agribusinesses that are expected to be
formed through farmland consolidation. Their introduction is likely to peak from 2017 to 2018 when
accurate position information will become available around the clock as a quasi-zenith satellite system
is scheduled to come on-stream. Big farmers will likely start using auto steering systems and others to
efficiently run their farms.
<Market size and trend>
The market for GPS guidance and auto steering systems totaled 700 million yen in 2013 with an
average system price of 640,000 yen. The use of such systems in Hokkaido was 7.4% (3,120/42,000
farmers) in that year.
The number of farmers in Hokkaido is forecast to fall from 44,000 in 2010 to about 30,000 in 2020
and down to 26,000 in 2025.
12 to 18% of 40,000 to 38,000 farmers are projected to use such systems from 2015 to 2017.
<GPS guidance/auto steering system market>
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2017
Hokkaido
100
350
480
580
830
780
1,700
2,000
GPS
Cum.
450
930
1,510
2,340
3,120
4,800
6,800
guidance Others
10
30
30
50
80
110
400
700
Total
110
380
510
630
910
890
2,100
2,700
Cumulative
490
1,000
1,630
2,540
3,430
5,530
8,230
Auto
Hokkaido
10
20
80
130
170
350
300
steering Cum.
30
110
240
410
760
1,050
Others
10
10
20
50
100
Total
10
20
90
140
190
400
400
Estimate
300
350
590
630
1,500
1,850
(million yen)
Note: GPS guidance systems include broad casters and other related products.
Combined systems of GPS guidance and auto steering are double-counted both as the guidance and steering systems.
Source: Shipment units by Hokkaido Prefecture in 2013, shipment value by Seed Planning
9
GPS guidance/auto steering system market
million yen
■GPS guidance
■Auto steering
▲
Value
Note: A GPS guidance system is equipment to locate the tractor’s position with the GPS function and to display its
routes. An auto steering system is to steer the tractor along the routes shown by the GPS guidance system.
<Market shares and sales of major suppliers>
GPS guidance systems were launched in 2008 in Japan. About 100 systems were sold in the first year
and 380 in the second year. The third year saw sales of more than 500 systems. A cumulative 3,430
systems had been shipped through 2013, according to information released by the agricultural policy
department of Hokkaido Prefecture.
Other than the top 5 companies, MSK Farm Machinery affiliated with Mitsubishi Corp. imports the
systems from Satcom of Germany. Sasaki Corp. has developed broad casters for GPS systems.
Farmers familiar with IT import some systems on their own but they total only more than 10 systems.
Annual and cumulative sales of GPS guidance systems by supplier are estimated as shown in the table
below:
Cumulative sales since 2010 reached 3,430 systems. Nikon-Trimble accounted for 2,400 or 70%,
followed by Geosurf with 490 or 14.3% and Kuroda Noki with 380 or 11.1%.
Shares of market by supplier in 2014
2013 (number of units /value in yen)
Cumulative since 2010
IHI Star Machinery
15 / 10 million
110
3.2%
Kuroda Noki
20 / 13 million
380
11.1
Geosurf
185 / 85 million
490
14.3
Topcon
30 / 40 million
Nikon-Trimble
MSK Farm Machinery
Sasaki
Total (unit/value)
50
640 / 480 million
2,400
△ / 5 million
△
-
-
890 / 630 million
3,430
1.5
70.0
100.0%
Note: △: less than 10
Source: Seed Planning
10
Products and services of major providers and comments on market
outlook
Note: A; Market growth of 10% or higher, B; 5-10%, C; up to 5%
Firms
Agricultural cloud
services
Products
Prices/systems
Comments on market outlook
ISEKI
Agri-support
・Free work control system for buyers
of its farm machinery, cloud
・Production control system: 36,000
yen/year
・Farming control cloud service
(customized version of Fujitsu’s AKisai)
B
The challenge is how to get
farmers used to IT
equipment.
A
KSAS
・Farming support basic course: 42,000
yen/year, cloud
Full-fledged course: 96,000 yen/year
・ 1-year free provision of service as a
sales promotional campaign
・Smart-assist: 20,000
yen/vehicle/year, cloud
・Production history* is provided to
smart-assist users for free of charge
(20,000 yen/year for a separate
contract, production history, Sorimatch
products)
・System price: 286,000 yen/vehicle
B
・System price: 480,000 yen/vehicle
・System price: 740,000 yen/vehicle
C
Iseki &
Co.
Kubota
Yanmar
GPS navigation systems
Smart-assist
IHI Star
Kuroda
Noki
GPS Navi-liner
EGL3000
Outback STX
Outback MAX
Geosurf
Matrix 840GS
570GS
Topcon
System 110
CropSpec
NikonTrimble
Guidance/auto
steering
support
systems
・System price: 600,000 yen/vehicle
・System price: 500,000 yen/vehicle
・System price: 500,000 yen/vehicle
・System price: 3,200,000 yen/vehicle
Kubota hopes the systems will
make inroads in 2015-and
2016.
The product will be accepted
as agricultural reform makes
progress.
B
The product will be accepted
as further consolidation of
farmland will take place.
The product will be accepted
as further consolidation of
farmland will take place.
B
The product will be accepted
as further consolidation of
farmland will take place.
A
Topcon tries to promote GPS
guidance systems.
・CFX-750 guidance system price:
500,000 yen/vehicle
・EZ-Pilot auto steering support system
price: 560,000 yen/vehicle
B
The range of equipment in
which the systems can be
installed will expand.
11
12