Metropolitan Planning Organization
Travel Forecasting
State of the Practice
Presented To
AMPO Modeling Work Group
By
Guy Rousseau,
Atlanta Regional Commission
TRB Committee 0090 Member
October 23, 2006
Salt Lake City, Utah
B0090
Committee for Determination of the State of the
Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting
• The origin of the study: requested of the National
Research Council and Transportation Research Board,
by United States Department Of Transportation Office of
the Secretary, Federal Highway Administration, and
Federal Transit Administration.
• The scope: This project gathers information and
determines the state of the practice for metropolitan area
travel demand modeling by metropolitan planning
organizations (MPOs) and state departments of
transportation (DOTs). In addition, the committee
identifies actions needed to ensure that the appropriate
technical processes are being used for travel modeling.
The committee membership
Chairman:
Martin Wachs, RAND Corporation
Members:
Laura L. Cove, North Carolina DOT
Thomas B. Deen, Transportation
Consultant
George B. Dresser, Texas A&M
University
Ronald W. Eash, Northwestern
University
Robert A. Johnston, University of
California, Davis
Eric J. Miller, University of Toronto
Michael R. Morris, North Central
Texas Council of Governments
Richard H. Pratt, Richard H. Pratt
Consultant, Inc.
Charles L. Purvis, Oakland Metro
Transportation Commission
Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional
Commission
Mary Lynn Tischer, Virginia
Department of Transportation
Richard E. Walker, Metro Portland
Staff:
Jon M. Williams, Transportation
Research Board
Steve Godwin, Transportation
Research Board
Process of the Committee
• We have met 4 times, once jointly with this AMPO
models group
• We have received information from a number of sources:
– listening sessions during our meetings,
– national survey of MPO modeling practice (by BMIVHB);
– survey of states (DOT’s) to determine what role they
have for metropolitan travel forecasting;
– extensive literature review;
– targeted research on such topics as the history
of FHWA / FTA funding for MPOs and the accuracy of
20-year MPO land use forecasts*
MPOs Providing Responses to Survey
Survey Objectives
• Support TRB Committee B0090 by noting
modeling practices that are:
– Unusual
– Questionable
– Likely represent advance state-of-the-practice
– Deficient
– Ways to improve modeling
– Otherwise of special interest
Top Ten Best Model Features
10. Multipath Transit Assignment
10. Detailed Operations Outputs
9. Accurate Land Use Data
8. Intersection Impedances
7. GIS Based
6. Multiplicity of Trip Purposes
5. Modes/Mode Choice Model
4. Standardized Model
3. Zone/Network Details
2. Well Calibrated and Validated
1. Ease of Use/Flexibility
Source: MPO-DOT survey
Top Ten Worst Model Features
10. Lack of Tour Based Activity Model
9. No Mode Choice Model
8. Lack of Commercial Vehicle/Truck/Freight Modeling
7. Lack of Toll/HOT Lane Modeling
6. Lack of Recent Quality Calibration
5. Lack of Travel Survey Data
4. Lack of Time of Day
3. Trip Generation
2. Lack of Detail/Quality of Mode Choice in Model
1. Land Use Forecasting (see next
slide as to why that is….????.....!!!)
Source: MPO-DOT survey
Land Use Forecasts for Year 2000 VS Actual 2000
Population, Employment & Households
10.0%
5.0%
Percent Variation of Forecast from Actual
0.0%
-5.0%
Population
-10.0%
Households
Employment
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
Atlanta
Chicago
San Francisco
Washington
-30.0%
City
Portland, OR
Dallas-Ft Worth
Phoenix
Committee Next Steps
• We have written a draft report that includes discussion, findings, and
recommendations for both policy and technical topics. This report is
currently under review by the committee.
• Following the completion of our committee review, our report will be
subject to an external peer review by about 8 reviewers. Once the
comments of these reviewers are satisfied, the report will be edited
and published
• Release of the report at the TRB Annual Meeting seems unlikely.
• At the TRB Annual Meeting, and the 2007 Transportation Planning
Applications conference (see www.trb-appcon.org), there will likely
be presentation of the final findings of the national survey of MPO
travel modeling practice