Chapter 22 The Demand for Money Quantity Theory of Money Velocity of Money provides a link between the quantity of money and nominal income: V = (P Y)/M Equation of Exchange: M V = P Y Quantity Theory of Money 1. Irving Fisher: V is fairly constant 2. Equation of exchange is no longer an identity 3. Nominal income PY is determined by M 4. Classicals: Y is fairly constant in the short run 5. P is determined by M Quantity Theory of Money Demand M = (1/V) P Y MD = k P Y Implication: interest rates is not important to MD 22-2 Change in Velocity from Year to Year: 1915–2002 © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 22-3 Is Velocity Constant? 1. Classicals thought velocity constant because they didn’t have good data. 2. After the Great Depression, economists realized that velocity is far from constant. © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 22-4 Keynes’s Liquidity Preference Theory 3 Motives for Holding Money 1. Transactions motive - positively related to Y 2. Precautionary motive - positively related to Y 3. Speculative motive A. Positively related to W and Y B. Negatively related to i Liquidity Preference: MD = P * L(Y, i) + - © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 22-5 Keynes’s Liquidity Preference Theory Implication: Velocity is not constant P/M = 1/L(Y, i) Multiply both sides by Y and substitute in MD = M → V = P Y/M = Y/L(Y, i) 1. i, → L(Y, i) → V 2. Change in expectations of future i, change L(Y, i) and V changes © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 22-6 Precautionary and Speculative MD Precautionary Demand 1. Benefits of precautionary balances 2. Opportunity cost of interest foregone Conclusion: i, opportunity cost, hold less precautionary D balances, M Speculative Demand Problems with Keynes’s framework: Hold all bonds or all money: no diversification 22-7 Friedman’s Modern Quantity Theory D Theory of asset demand: M function of wealth or permanent income (YP) and relative return of other assets MD/P = L(YP, rb – rm, re – rm, – rm) e + – – – Differences from Keynesian Theories 1. Other assets besides money and bonds: equities and real assets 2. Real assets as alternative asset to money implies M has direct effects on spending. D 3. rm not constant: rb, rm, (rb – rm) unchanged, so M unchanged, i.e., d interest rates have little effect on M D 4.M is a stable function Implication of 3: MD/P = L(YP) → V = Y/ L(YP) Since relationship of Y and YP predictable, 4 implies V is predictable: Get quantity theory result that change in M leads to predictable changes in nominal income PY. 22-8 Empirical Evidence on Money Demand Interest Sensitivity of Money Demand Is sensitive, but no liquidity trap Stability of Money Demand 1. M1 demand stable till 1973, unstable after 2. Most likely source of instability is financial innovation 3. Cast doubts on monetary targets © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved 22-9