Knowledge Society
Technologies
Science & Technology: Acceleration and
Globalisation
Part 2: Technological Globalisation
Ray Vassallo
Technological Globalization: Winners
Globalization is less a choice than a
statistical inevitability, once we have
accelerating, globe-spanning technologies
(communication, databases, travel) on a
planet of finite surface area (“sphericity”).
There are some clear winners in this phase transition, such as:
1. Network Memes and Traditions like Free Markets,
Democracy, Peace and other Interdependencies
(The Ideas that Conquered the World, Michael
Mandelbaum)
2. Big Cities (backbone of the emerging superorganism)
(Global Networks, Linked Cities, Saskia Sassen)
3. Global Corporations (large and small)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
(New World, New Rules, Marina Whitman)
Technological Globalization: Losers
Some of the longer term losers:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Non-Network Memes and Traditions like Autocratic Systems,
Fascism, Indefinite Protectionism
(Power and Prosperity, Mancur Olson)
Centrally-Planned (mostly Top-Down) vs. Market-Driven
(mostly Bottom-Up) Economies
(The Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin)
(Against the Tide, Douglas Irwin)
Groups or Nations with Ideologies/Religions
(The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington)
Centrally-Planned vs. Self-Organizing Political Systems
(excepting critical systems, like Security)
(The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel)
Technological Globalization: Uncertains
Most elements of modern society, of course, are evolutionary,
meaning they remain ‘indeterminate’ actors which may or may
not become winners. Their fate depends critically on the paths
we choose. Some key examples:
1.
Humanist Memes like Justice, Equal Opportunity,
2.
Individual Responsibility, Education, Charity,
Compassion, Cultural Diversity, Sustainability,
Religious Tolerance
(The Dignity of Difference, Jonathan Sacks)
The Unskilled Poor (In All Economies, U.S. to
Uganda)
(A Future Perfect, Micklethwait and Wooldridge)
The Developing World
(The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto)
3.
Something Curious Is Going On
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Big Bang to Complex Stars:
The Slowing Phase of ED
© 2004 Accelerating.org
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED
Carl
Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of Eden, 1977)
Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
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A U-Shaped Curve of Change?
Big Bang Singularity
Developmental Singularity?
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
50 yrs ago: Machina silico
100,000 yrs: Matter
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies
8B yrs: Earth
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Brief History of Accelerating Change
Billion
Years Ago
Generations Ago
12
Big Bang
11.5
Milky Way (Atoms)
8
Sun (Energy)
4.5
Earth (Molecules)
3.5
Bacteria (Cell)
2.5
Sponge (Body)
0.7
Clams (Nerves)
0.5
Trilobites (Brains)
0.2
Bees (Swarms)
0.100
Mammals
0.002
Humans, Tools &
Clans Co-evolution
100,000
Speech
750
Agriculture
500
Writing
400
Libraries
40
Universities
24
Printing
16
Accurate Clocks
5
Telephone
4
Radio
3
Television
2
Computer
1
Internet/e-Mail
0
GPS, CD, WDM
Observation 1:
Tech Interval Time Compression
3 million years ago
collective rock throwing; early stone use
1.5 million years ago
lever, wedge, inclined plane
500,000 years ago
control of fire
50,000 years ago
bow and arrow; fine tools
5,000 years ago
wheel and axle; sail
500 years ago
printing press with movable type; rifle
50 years ago
commercial digital computers
10 years ago
commercial internet
Continuous Tech Innovation (Even 4001400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Technological or Sociotechnological Innovation
Date (A.D.), Location
Alchemy (pre-science) develops a wide following
Constantinople University
Powers and Roots (Arybhata)
Heavy plow; horse shoes; practical horse harness
Wooden coffins (Alemanni)
Draw looms (silk weaving)
Decimal reckoning
Canterbury Monastery/University
Book printing
Suan-Ching (Science Encyclopedia)
Originum Etymologiarum Liibri XX (Sci. Encyc.)
First surgical procedures
Water wheel for milling (Medieval energy source)
Stirrup arrives in Europe from China
Early Chemistry (Abu Masa Dshaffar)
410, Europe
425, Turkey
476, India
500, Europe
507, Germany
550, Egypt
595, India
598, England
600, China
619, China
622, Spain
650, India
700, Europe
710, Europe
720, Mid-East
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Medicine, Astronomy, Math, Optics, Chemistry
Hanlin Academy
Pictorial Book Printing
Iron and smithing become common; felling ax
Chemistry (Jabir)
Mayan Acropoli (peak)
Algebra (Muhammed al Chwarazmi)
Ptolemaic Astronomy; Soap becomes common
Rotary grindstone to sharpen iron
Paper money
Salerno University
Iron becomes common; Trebuchets
Astrolabe (navigation)
Angkor Thom (city)
New Mathematics and Science (Jahiz, Al-Kindi)
Viking shipbuilding
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Paper arrives in Arab
world
750, Arab Spain
750, China
765, Japan
770, Europe
782, Mid-East
800, Mexico
810, Persia
828, Europe
834, Europe
845, China
850, Italy
850, Europe
850, Mid-East
860, Cambodia
870, Mid-East
900, Europe
900, Egypt
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Salerno Medical School
Linens and woolens
First European bridges
Arithmetical notation brought to Europe by Arabs
1,000 volume encyclopedia
First Mayan and Tiuanaco Civilizations
Horizontal loom
Astrolabe arrives in Europe
Greek medicine arrives in Europe (Constantine)
Water-driven mechanical clock
Antidotarum (2650 medical prescriptions)
Bologna University
Mariner's compass
Town charters granted (protecting commerce)
Al-Idrisi's "Geography"
Oxford University
Vertical sail windmills
900, Italy
942, Flanders
963, England
975, Europe
978, China
1000, Cent./S.America
1000, Europe
1050, Europe
1070, Europe
1090, China
1098, Italy
1119, Italy
1125, Europe
1132, France
1154, Italy
1167, England
1180, Europe
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Glass mirrors
Second Mayan Civilization
Cambridge University
Arabic numerals in Europe (Leonardo Fibonacci)
Tiled roofs
Cotton manufacture
Coal mining
Roger Bacon, our first scientist (Opus; Communia)
Goose quill writing pen
The inquisition begins using instruments of torture
Tradesman guilds engage in street fighting over turf
Toll roads
Human dissection
Wood block printing; spectacles
Standardization of distance measures (yard, acre)
Use of gunpowder for firearms (Berthold Schwarz)
Sawmill; wheelbarrow; cannon (large and hand)
1180, England
1190, Cent. America
1200, England
1202, England
1212, England
1225, Spain
1233, England
1250, England
1250, Italy
1252, Spain
1267, England
1269, England
1275, England
1290, Italy
1305, England
1313, Germany
1325, Europe
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Pisa and Grenoble Universities; Queens College
First scientific weather forecasts (William Merlee)
Mechanical clock reaches Europe
Blast furnaces; cast iron explodes across Europe
Steel crossbow first used in war
Vienna, Hiedelberg, and Cologne Universities
Incorporation of the Fishmonger's Company
Johann Gutenberg, inventor of mass printing, born
1330, Europe
1337, England
1354, France
1360, Europe
1370, Europe
1380, Europe
1384, England
1396, Germany
Lesson: Tech innovation appears to be a developmental process,
independent of Wars, Enlightenments, Reformations, Inquisitions,
Crusades, Subjugations, and other aspects of our cyclic
evolutionary ideological, cultural, and economic history.
Tech advances are something we consistently choose, even
unconsciously, regardless of who is in power, because they have
strong "non-zero sum" effects on human aspirations.
Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration
•Moore's Law - Miniaturization
• Processing, Storage, ...
• Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months
•Metcalf's Law - Interconnection
• Value of a network increases as the square of the number
connections
•Gilder's Law - Quantization
• Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months
•Negroponte's Law - Digitization
• Superiority of "bits over atoms"
• Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where
ideas are ultimate raw material
© 2004 Accelerating.org