Arab Governments:
The Quest for Security
Lecturer—Lieutenant Colonel Mike Meyer
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Undergrad. Degree —Latin American History
Masters—Nat. Sec. Affairs (Mid-East) and Arabic
Middle East and Political Military Affairs Specialist
Intelligence Officer—Aviation and Political Affairs
Analyst and Briefer for Commander, USCENTCOM
Political Advisor to Commander, USCENTAF
Air Attaché, U.S. Embassy, Damascus, Syria
AF Recruiting Squadron Commander, Maxwell AFB
Reminders of the Regime
Baghdad, Iraq
Tomb of Salah Al-Din
Damascus, Syria
At the Pyramids
Giza, Egypt
With A Syrian Contact
Damascus, Syria
Bagram Air Base
Afghanistan
Agenda
• Common Characteristics of Security-Conscious
Arab States
• What Means Do Arab States
Employ to Ensure Security?
• What are the Implications for
the Region?
No Truly Free Arab Countries
• 0 of 22 Arab Governments are Truly Freely Elected
– UN Human Development Report, 2002, Identifies 3 Deficit Areas:
• Freedom, Knowledge, and Women’s Participation
– Assumption of Power and Governance Based on Patronage and Loyalty
– Contradicts Trend of Democratization in Other Parts of Developing World
During the Past Few Decades—L. America, Africa, Far East, E. Europe
• Syria: Freedom House--7/7 Political Rights; 7/7 Civil Rights
– Pres. Bashar Al-Asad Confirmed by Referendum; Son of Hafiz Al-Asad
– Constitution Changed Overnight in Wake of Father’s Death
– Parliament is Merely a Rubber Stamp
• Egypt: 6/7 Political and Civil Rights
– President Mubarak in Power Since 1981
– No True Opposition Allowed
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Saudi Arabia: 7/7 Pol. and 7/7 Civ. Rights
– Saud Family has Ruled Monarchy since 1932
– No Parliament and 90-member, appointed Consultative Council
– No Political Parties Allowed
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Qatar: 6/7 Pol. and 6/7 Civ. Rights
– Current Ruler Overthrew Father in 1995
– Prime Minister from Same Family
– No Parliament and 35-member, appointed Cons. Council
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Jordan: 6/7 Pol. and 5/7 Civ. Rights
– Monarchy with Succession From Father to Son
– 2 Chambers of Parliament, One of which is Elected
– Political Parties are Allowed with Limited Participation
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Few Bright Spots—Limited Political Liberalization:
Morocco, Bahrain, and Kuwait
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Jury Still Out on Iraq, but Progress is Being Made—Only Because the Coalition Overthrew
Saddam and is Present. Key will be Whether Populace will Put Up with Turbulence
Associated w/ Lack of Security as Democratic Processes are Institutionalized
Common Characteristics of Security
Conscious Arab States
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With Exception of Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories,
Arab States Remarkably Stable For Three Decades + :
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King Hussein, Jordan, More than 40 Years
Hafiz Al-Asad, Syria, 30 Years
Hosni Mubarak, Egypt, 23 Years
Saddam Hussein, Iraq, Almost 25 Years
Authoritarian Governments Dominate the Arab World
– Many Leaders Live in Fear
– Rulers Fear Political Reform as a Catalyst for Instability
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Arab Countries are Often Essentially Police States with Relatively Large
Security Services and Militaries—Armed Forces are Not Servants of the
People, But Served by the People (Corruption)
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Despite Rich Cultural Composition and Histories,
Civil Society is Often Stifled or Closely Monitored
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Large Portions or Majority of Population Often Cut Out
or Impoverished—No Vehicles for Upward Mobility
What Means Do Arab States Employ
to Ensure Security?
• Co-opting and Promoting Particular (and often Minority) Ethnic Groups,
as well as Attaining the Loyalty of Key Tribes
– Syria—Alawis from the Coastal Mountains
– Iraq—Sunnis from the Sunni Triangle/Tikritis
– Jordan—Bedouin Families from East Bank
• Controlled Demonstrations and Protests—
Pressure Valves
• Promotion of “Military” Societies—Most Arab Leaders Either Rose Up
through the Military or Closely Identify Themselves with the Military
• Numerous and Overlapping Intelligence Agencies—More Eyes the Better!
• Dual Militaries with Simultaneous External Defense and Internal Protection
Missions. In Fact, #1 Mission is Actually Regime Protection
Implications for the Region
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Economic:
– Unless Oil/Natural Gas Revenues High, Development is Stifled As Bright
Young People Emigrate or Are Forced to Settle for Jobs Beneath Capabilities
• Welfare States Like Saudi Arabia are Threatened by a Lack of Opportunity
– Defense Budgets are Disproportionately High, Taking Money From Civilian Industry
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Military/Security:
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Sycophants, Often from Particular Ethnic Groups, Advance Before Capable Leaders
Unit Morale is Negatively Affected as Personnel are “Watched”
Centralized Control Slows Speed at which Operations are Executed
Jealousies Hurt Cooperation Between Individual Services
Leaders Chase High-Profile Military Items vs. Most Practical Ones
Social/Political:
– Political Cronies and Loyalist Leaches Attain High-Level Positions
– Due to a Lack of Legal Outlets for Frustration, Extremism on the Rise
• Militant Islam on the Rise
– More and More Band-Aid Fixes Needed to Hold Together Societies