Global Drug use
Criminal Justice Process
Recording of offences
(arrests/suspects)
Investigation
Prosecution
Conviction
Prison
Drug-related crime
Over the period 2003-2012, the
annual global proportion of
drug users that was arrested
for possession for personal use
has fluctuated between 3 and 4
per cent
Cannabis is the most prominent
drug in offences for possession
for personal use.
For trafficking offences, ATS is
the prominent drug in Asia and
cocaine in the Americas
Joint UNODC-UNAIDSWHO-WB estimates
People who inject drugs
12.7 million people who inject
drugs (0.27 % prevalence)
HIV among PWID
1.7 million PWID living with
HIV (13.1% of PWID)
Opiate seizures
Opium cultivation
and production
Stability of the
opiate global
market
Coca cultivation and production
Changes in cannabis market in Europe
Cannabis market in the US
Changing cannabis policy in the Americas
• INCB position
• Details, design and implementation of the new laws
vary significantly
• Need for monitoring and evaluation
– Health
• Increase in prevalence from recreational use sale expected , but need
to look at the health impact and possible substitution effects
– Criminal justice
• Not easy to assess, there are data on persons apprehended for
possession for personal use, but no data to show what happens after
in terms of prosecution, conviction and imprisonment
– Economic costs and benefits
ATS seizures
Americas
Europe
1990
Source: UNODC estimates based on World Bank, Indicators, August 2013 .
Asia
2010
Africa
All Oceania
-
-
All Africa
-
Other Asia
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
5%
3%
2%
35%
35%
32%
30%
27%
24%
21%
19%
20%
East & South-East Asia
All Asia
Other Europe
West & Central Europe
All Europe
9%
7%
10%
Other Americas
32%
30%
30%
North America
37%
40%
All Americas
42%
Distribution of value-added of chemical industry
Regional distribution of the value added of the global chemical industry, 1990-2010
50%
0%
Oceania
Global exports of the chemical industry,
1990-2012
Growth in exports, output and value-added of the
chemical industry (based on constant US$)
10.0%
2,000
Average annual growth in %
in billion US dollars
8.7%
1,500
1,000
500
8.0%
5.8%
6.0%
4.0%
3.5%
6.1%
3.3%
2.4%
2.0%
in current US dollars
in constant 2012 US dollars
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
0
0.0%
Value added
1990-2010
Output
Exports
2000-2010
Sources: UNODC estimates based on World Bank Indicators, UNIDO Industrial Database and UN COMTRADE (SITC Rev.3).
Potential manufacture of precursor chemicals (Table I and Table II), 2010-2012
20 countries officially
reported manufacture
of Table I precursors to
UNODC over the
2010-2012 period
(8 in Asia, 8 in Europe
and 4 in the Americas).
77 potential precursors
producing countries
account for 77% of the
world population
Sources: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire data and
UN COMTRADE data.
Global (legal) exports of precursor chemicals in constant 2012 US dollars, 1996-2012
8,000.0
7,000.0
1,800.0
Change:
1996-2012:
Table I precursors:
+35%
Table II precursors: 3½ times
1,600.0
1,400.0
6,000.0
1,200.0
5,000.0
1,000.0
4,000.0
800.0
3,000.0
600.0
2,000.0
400.0
1,000.0
200.0
0.0
0.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
All internationally controlled precursors (left axis)
Table I precursors (right axes)
Source: COMTRADE data.
Table II precursors (left axes)
in million constant 2012 US dollars
(Table I precursors)
in million constant 2012 US dollars
(all precursors and Table II precursors)
9,000.0
Global seizures of Table I precursors, 1989-2012
1,400
Seizures in tons
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Cocaine precursor*
Heroin precursor*
ATS precursors*
Others*
Table I substances
3 years average (smoothed)
*cocaine precursor: potassium permanganate; heroin precursor: acetic anhydride; amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS) precursors: P-2-P,
phenylacetic acid, ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, norephedrine, 3,4-MDP-2-P, safrole, isosafrole, piperonal; others: lysergic acid; ergometrine,
ergotamine, N-Aceylanthranilic acid
*preliminary data for 2012; data may still rise once additional information becomes available.
Source: INCB, 2013 Precursors report, New York 2014 (and previous years).
Effects of precursor control
• Seizures and stopped shipments
• Seizures of Table I precursors: 12-fold increase 1990-92 and 2010-2012
• Stopped precursors shipments even more important than precursors seizures
• Additional measurements of ‘effectiveness’:
– Interception rate (15%
for diverted potassium permanganate and acetic anhydride over the
2007-2012 period)
– Reduction of drug availability
• Seizures of precursor chemicals compared to drug seizures
Seizures of ecstasy precursors:
18% more than ecstasy seizures (2007-2012);
Seizures of amphetamines precursors: > 2-fold seizures of amphetamine and methamphetamine (2007-2012)
• Cases of reductions in supply of drugs linked to precursors control:
LSD, methaqualone, ecstasy
– Impact of precursor control on prices:
Licit: $1-1.5 per litre of acetic anhydride; Afghanistan: $8 in 2002; ≈ $200 ($157-$221) in 2013
Reactions of clandestine operators
• More sophisticated ways to obtain precursor chemicals
–
–
–
–
–
Creation of specialized groups to obtain the precursors chemicals
Creation of front companies
Identification of weak links in the control system
Identification of weaknesses at the national level (diversion from domestic sources)
Use of the Internet
• Use of pharmaceutical preparations (containing ephedrine and pseudoephedrine)
• Use of substitute chemicals and pre-precursors (APAAN, esters of phenylacete (ethyl phenylacete, methyl phenylacetate), 3,4-MDP-2-P methyl glycidate, methylamine, etc.)
• Production of New Psychoactive Substances (NPS)
Conclusions
• Potential vulnerabilities of diversion of precursor chemicals increased over the
last two decades
• Nonetheless, progress has been made in precursor control since the 1988
Convention was adopted
• Challenges are arising from new strategies adopted by operators of
clandestine laboratories, notably the use of non-controlled ‘substitute
precursors‘
•
Some of the instruments (international legal requirements) already exist:
– ‘limited international special surveillance list’
– diversion of non-scheduled substances for clandestine manufacture made a ‘criminal
offence’
– pre-export notifications for non-scheduled substances and pharmaceutical preparations
– participation in the PICS, including for non-scheduled substances
• … but are still awaiting global implementation
THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION
For more information:
http://www.unodc.org/