Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 1 Chapter 8 Estimating Parameters for Single Populations LEARNING OBJECTIVES The overall learning objective of Chapter 8 is to help you understand estimating parameters of single populations, thereby enabling you to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Estimate the population mean with a known population standard deviation with the z statistic, correcting for a finite population if necessary. Estimate the population mean with an unknown population standard deviation using the t statistic and properties of the t distribution. Estimate a population proportion using the z statistic. Use the chi-square distribution to estimate the population variance given the sample variance. Determine the sample size needed in order to estimate the population mean and population proportion. CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY Chapter 8 is the student's introduction to interval estimation and estimation of sample size. In this chapter, the concept of point estimate is discussed along with the notion that as each sample changes in all likelihood so will the point estimate. From this, the student can see that an interval estimate may be more usable as a one-time proposition than the point estimate. The confidence interval formulas for large sample means and proportions can be presented as mere algebraic manipulations of formulas developed in chapter 7 from the Central Limit Theorem. It is very important that students begin to understand the difference between mean and proportions. Means can be generated by averaging some sort of measurable item such as age, sales, volume, test score, etc. Proportions are computed by counting the number of items containing a characteristic of interest out of the total number of items. Examples might be proportion of people carrying a VISA card, proportion of items that are defective, proportion of market purchasing brand A. In addition, students can begin to see that sometimes single Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 2 samples are taken and analyzed; but that other times, two samples are taken in order to compare two brands, two techniques, two conditions, male/female, etc. In an effort to understand the impact of variables on confidence intervals, it may be useful to ask the students what would happen to a confidence interval if the sample size is varied or the confidence is increased or decreased. Such consideration helps the student see in a different light the items that make up a confidence interval. The student can see that increasing the sample size reduces the width of the confidence interval, all other things being constant, or that it increases confidence if other things are held constant. Business students probably understand that increasing sample size costs more and thus there are trade-offs in the research set-up. In addition, it is probably worthwhile to have some discussion with students regarding the meaning of confidence, say 95%. The idea is presented in the chapter that if 100 samples are randomly taken from a population and 95% confidence intervals are computed on each sample, that 95%(100) or 95 intervals should contain the parameter of estimation and approximately 5 will not. In most cases, only one confidence interval is computed, not 100, so the 95% confidence puts the odds in the researcher's favor. It should be pointed out, however, that the confidence interval computed may not contain the parameter of interest. This chapter introduces the student to the t distribution for estimating population means when is unknown. Emphasize that this applies only when the population is normally distributed because it is an assumption underlying the t test that the population is normally distributed albeit that this assumption is robust. The student will observe that the t formula is essentially the same as the z formula and that it is the table that is different. When the population is normally distributed and is known, the z formula can be used even for small samples. A formula is given in chapter 8 for estimating the population variance; and it is here that the student is introduced to the chi-square distribution. An assumption underlying the use of this technique is that the population is normally distributed. The use of the chi-square statistic to estimate the population variance is extremely sensitive to violations of this assumption. For this reason, extreme caution should be exercised in using this technique. Because of this, some statisticians omit this technique from consideration presentation and usage. Lastly, this chapter contains a section on the estimation of sample size. One of the more common questions asked of statisticians is: "How large of a sample size should I take?" In this section, it should be emphasized that sample size estimation gives the researcher a "ball park" figure as to how many to sample. The “error of estimation “ is a measure of the sampling error. It is also equal to the + error of the interval shown earlier in the chapter. Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 3 CHAPTER OUTLINE 8.1 Estimating the Population Mean Using the z Statistic ( known). Finite Correction Factor Estimating the Population Mean Using the z Statistic when the Sample Size is Small Using the Computer to Construct z Confidence Intervals for the Mean 8.2 Estimating the Population Mean Using the t Statistic ( unknown). The t Distribution Robustness Characteristics of the t Distribution. Reading the t Distribution Table Confidence Intervals to Estimate the Population Mean Using the t Statistic Using the Computer to Construct t Confidence Intervals for the Mean 8.3 Estimating the Population Proportion Using the Computer to Construct Confidence Intervals of the Population Proportion 8.4 Estimating the Population Variance 8.5 Estimating Sample Size Sample Size When Estimating µ Determining Sample Size When Estimating p Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 4 KEY WORDS Bounds Chi-square Distribution Degrees of Freedom(df) Error of Estimation Interval Estimate Point Estimate Robust Sample-Size Estimation t Distribution t Value SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 8 =3 n = 49 x = 20 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 3 = 20 + 1.96 = 20 + 0.84 = 19.16 ≤ µ ≤ 20.84 xz 49 n b) x = 115 = 25 n = 81 98% Confidence z.01 = 2.33 25 xz = 115 + 2.33 = 115 ± 6.47 = 108.53 ≤ µ ≤ 121.47 81 n c) x = 3.419 = 1.974 n = 36 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 1.974 = 3.419 + 1.645 = 3.419 ± .541 = 2.88 ≤ µ ≤ 3.96 xz 36 n 8.1 a) d) x = 66.7 80% C.I. xz n = 12.9 z.10 = 1.28 N = 500 N n 12.9 500 54 = 66.7 + 1.28 N 1 54 500 1 66.7 ± 2.12 = 64.58 ≤ µ ≤ 68.82 n = 54 = Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 5 8.2 n = 36 95% C.I. xz n = 23 x = 211 z.025 = 1.96 = 211 ± 1.96 23 36 = 211 ± 7.51 = 203.49 < µ < 218.51 = 4.49 x = 49 z.05=1.645 4.49 = 49 ± 1.645 = 49 ± 0.74 = 48.26 ≤ µ ≤ 49.74 xz n 100 8.3 n = 100 90% C.I. 2 = 49 8.4 n = 70 x = 90.4 94% C.I. xz n x = 90.4 Point Estimate z.03 = 1.88 = 90.4 ± 1.88 49 = 90.4 ± 1.57 = 88.83 < µ < 91.97 70 N = 200 = 10 x = 56 z.02 = 2.05 N n 10 200 49 xz = 56 ± 2.05 = n N 1 49 200 1 56 ± 2.55 = 53.45 ≤ µ ≤ 58.55 x = 56 Point Estimate 8.5 n = 49 96% C.I. 8.6 n = 120 99% C.I. = 0.8735 x = 18.72 z.005 = 2.575 x = 18.72 Point Estimate xz n 8.7 N = 1500 95% C.I. = 18.72 ± 2.575 n = 190 z.025 = 1.96 0.8735 = 8.72 ± .21 = 18.51 < µ < 18.93 120 x = 5.5 years = 1.25 years Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 6 x = 5.5 years Point Estimate 1.25 1500 190 N n = 5.5 ± 1.96 = xz 190 1500 1 n N 1 5.5 ± .17 = 5.67 ≤ µ ≤ 5.33 8.8 n = 24 90% C.I. xz n 8.9 n = 36 98% C.I. xz n 8.10 n = 36 = 3.23 x = 5.625 z.05 = 1.645 = 5.625 ± 1.645 3.23 24 = 1.17 x = 3.306 z.01 = 2.33 = 3.306 ± 2.33 = 5.625 ± 1.085 = 4.540 < µ < 6.710 1.17 36 = 3.306 ± .454 = 2.852 < µ < 3.760 = .113 x = 2.139 x = 2.139 Point Estimate 90% C.I. xz n z.05 = 1.645 = 2.139 ± 1.645 (.113) = 2.139 ± .031 = 2.108 < µ < 2.170 36 8.11 95% confidence interval x = 24.74 xz = 24.74 + 1.96 n = 50 z = + 1.96 5.4 = 50 n 24.74 + 1.497 = 23.243 ≤ ≤ 26.237 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 7 8.12 The point estimate is 0.96 or 96 cents per pound. n = 41 The assumed standard deviation is 0.14 95% level of confidence: z = + 1.96 Confidence interval: 0.917147 < µ < 1.002853 Error of the estimate: 1.002853 - 0.96 = 0.042853 8.13 n = 16 df = 16 – 1 = 15 x = 46 s = 5.22 95% Confidence Interval and /2=.025 t.025,15 = 2.131 s 5.22 xt = 46 ± 2.131 = 46 ± 3.44 = 42.56 ≤ µ ≤ 49.44 n 16 8.14 n = 12 x = 319.17 s = 9.104 df = 12 - 1 = 11 90% confidence interval /2 = .05 xt s n t.05,11 = 1.796 = 319.17 ± (1.796) 8.15 n = 41 9.104 = 319.17 ± 4.72 = 314.45 < µ < 323.89 12 x = 128.4 s = 20.6 df = 41 – 1 = 40 98% Confidence Interval /2 = .01 t.01,40 = 2.423 xt s n = 128.4 ± 2.423 20.6 41 = 128.4 ± 7.80 = 120.6 < µ < 136.2 x = 128.4 Point Estimate 8.16 n = 15 x = 2.364 s2 = 0.81 df = 15 – 1 = 14 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8 90% Confidence interval /2 = .05 t.05,14 = 1.761 xt s n = 2.364 ± 1.761 8.17 n = 25 x = 26.088 99% Confidence Interval /2 = .005 0.81 = 2.364 ± .409 = 1.955 < µ < 2.773 15 s = .817 df = 25 – 1 = 24 t.005,24 = 2.797 s (.817) xt = 26.088 ± 2.797 = 26.088 ± .457 = 25.631 ≤ µ ≤ 26.545 n 25 x = 26.088 Point Estimate Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 9 8.18 n = 51 x = 1,192 98% CI and /2 = .01 xt s n = 1,192 + 2.403 s = 279 df = n - 1 = 50 t.01,50 = 2.403 279 = 1,192 + 93.88 = 1,098.12 < < 1,285.88 51 The figure given by Runzheimer International falls within the confidence interval. Therefore, there is no reason to reject the Runzheimer figure as different from what we are getting based on this sample. 8.19 n = 18 df = 17 95% CI t.025,17 = 2.11 s = 0.1717 x = 2.5006 0.1717 2.5006 + 2.11 = 2.5006 + 0.0854 = 2.4152 ≤ ≤ 2.5860 18 Point Estimate = 2.5006 Error = 0.0006 8.20 n = 28 x = 5.335 90% Confidence Interval s = 2.016 df = 28 – 1 = 27 /2 = .05 t.05,27 = 1.703 xt 8.21 s n = 5.335 ± 1.703 2.016 = 5.335 + .649 = 4.686 < µ < 5.984 28 n = 10 s = 15.903 df = 10 – 1 = 9 x = 55.3 95% Confidence /2 = .025 t.025,9 = 2.262 s 15 .903 xt = 55.3 ± 2.262 = 55.3+ 11.38 = 43.92 ≤ µ ≤ 66.68 n 10 8.22 n = 14 98% confidence /2 = .01 t.01,13 = 2.650 from data: x = 389.88 s = 105.30 df = 13 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 10 confidence interval: xt s n = 389.88 + 2.65 105.30 = 14 389.88 + 74.58 = 315.30 < < 464.46 The point estimate is 389.88 /2 = .005 8.23 n = 40 df = 40 – 1 = 39 99% confidence t.005,39 = 2.708 from data: s = 8.21 x = 11.8 s 8.21 confidence interval: x t = 11.8 + 2.708 = n 40 11.8 + 3.52 = 8.28 ≤ ≤ 15.32 8.24 The point estimate is x which is 25.4134 hours. The sample size is 26 skiffs. The confidence level is 98%. The confidence interval is: s s x t x t = 22.8124 < < 28.0145 n n The error of the confidence interval is 26.011. 8.25 a) n = 50 pˆ z b) d) p̂ = .85 n = 105 pˆ z z.025 = 1.96 99% C.I. z.005 = 2.575 (.85)(.15) pˆ qˆ = .85 ± 2.575 = .85 ± .046 = .804 ≤ p ≤ .896 400 n n = 1100 pˆ z 95% C.I. (.55)(.45) pˆ qˆ = .55 ± 1.96 = .55 ± .138 = .412 ≤ p ≤ .688 50 n n = 400 pˆ z c) p̂ =.55 p̂ = .58 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 (.58)(.42) pˆ qˆ = .58 ± 1.645 = .58 ± .025 = .555 ≤ p ≤ .605 1100 n p̂ = .33 88% C.I. z.06 = 1.555 (.33)(.67) pˆ qˆ = .33 ± 1.555 = .33 ± .071 = .259 ≤ p ≤ .401 105 n Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 11 8.26 a) n = 116 p̂ = pˆ z 8.27 n = 75 x = 106 85% C.I. z.075 = 1.44 (.44)(.56) pˆ qˆ = .44 ± 1.44 = .44 ± .046 = .394 < p < .486 n 240 n = 60 p̂ = z.015 = 2.17 x 106 = .44 n 240 pˆ z d) 97% C.I. (.60)(.40) pˆ qˆ = .60 ± 2.17 = .60 ± .038 = .562 < p < .638 n 800 n = 240 p̂ = x = 479 x 479 = .60 n 800 pˆ z c) z.005 = 2.575 (.49)(.51) pˆ qˆ = .49 ± 2.575 = .49 ± .12 = .37 < p < .61 116 n n = 800 p̂ = 99% C.I. x 57 = .49 n 116 pˆ z b) x = 57 x = 21 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 x 21 = .35 n 60 (.35)(.65) pˆ qˆ = .35 ± 1.645 = .35 ± .10 = .25 < p < .45 60 n x = 35 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 x 35 = .47 p̂ = n 75 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 1.645 = .47 ± .09 = .38 ≤ p ≤ .56 pˆ z 85 n 95% C.I. z.025 = 1.96 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 12 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 1.96 = .47 ± .11 = .36 ≤ p ≤ .58 85 n pˆ z 99% C.I. z.005 = 2.575 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 2.575 = .47 ± .14 = .33 ≤ p ≤ .61 pˆ z 85 n All other things being constant, as the confidence increased, the width of the interval increased. 8.28 a) n = 1003 pˆ z p̂ = .255 z.005 = 2.575 pˆ qˆ (.255)(.745) = .255 + 2.575 = .255 + .035 = .220 < p < .290 n 1003 b) n = 10,000 pˆ z 99% CI p̂ = .255 99% CI z.005 = 2.575 (.255)(.745) pˆ qˆ = .255 + 2.575 = .255 + .011 = .244 < p < .266 10,000 n The confidence interval constructed using n = 1003 is wider than the confidence interval constructed using n = 10,000. One might conclude that, all other things being constant, increasing the sample size reduces the width of the confidence interval. 8.29 (a) n = 660 p̂ = .47 95% CI z.025 = 1.96 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 + 1.96 = .47 + .0381 = .4319 ≤ p ≤ .5081 660 n (b) n = 660 99% CI z.005 = 2.575 p̂ = .28 pˆ z pˆ z 8.30 n = 1250 p̂ = x = 997 98% C.I. z.01 = 2.33 x 997 = .80 n 1250 (.80)(.20) pˆ qˆ = .80 ± 2.33 = .80 ± .026 = .774 < p < .826 n 1250 n = 3500 x = 947 pˆ z 8.31 (.28)(.72) pˆ qˆ = .28 + 2.575 = .28 + .0450 = .235 ≤ p ≤ .325 660 n Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 13 a) x 947 = .271 n 3500 p̂ = .271 Point Estimate b) 99% C.I. p̂ = pˆ z z.005 = 2.575 pˆ qˆ (.271)(.729) = .271 + 2.575 = .271 ± .019 = n 3500 .252 ≤ p ≤ .290 8.32 n = 89 p̂ = x = 48 (.54)(.46) pˆ qˆ = .54 ± 1.44 = .54 ± .076 = .464 < p < .616 n 89 p̂ = .63 n = 275 p̂ = pˆ z 8.35 a) n = 690 95% Confidence z.025 = + 1.96 (.63)(.37) pˆ qˆ = .63 + 1.96 = .63 + .0360 = .594 ≤ p ≤ .666 690 n pˆ z 8.34 z.075 = 1.44 x 48 = .54 n 89 pˆ z 8.33 85% C.I. x = 121 98% confidence z.01 = 2.33 x 121 = .44 n 275 pˆ qˆ (.44)(.56) = .44 ± 2.33 = .44 ± .07 = .37 < p < .51 n 275 n = 15 x = 28.4 2.995,14 = 4.07466 s2 = 34.9 99% C.I. .005,14 = 31.3194 2 df = 15 – 1 = 14 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 14 b) 8.36 (15 1)(34.9) (15 1)(34.9) < 2 < 31.3194 4.07466 15.60 ≤ 2 ≤ 119.91 n = 7 x = 5.37 s = 2.24 s2 = 5.0176 2.975,6 = 1.23734 2.025,6 = 14.4494 (7 1)(5.0176) (7 1)(5.0176) ≤ 2 ≤ 14.4494 1.23734 2 2.08 ≤ ≤ 24.33 95% C.I. df = 7 – 1 = 6 c) n = 19 x = 110 s = 32 s2 = 1024 90% C.I. 2.95,18 = 9.39045 2.05,18 = 28.8693 (19 1)(1024) (19 1)(1024) ≤ 2 ≤ 28.8693 9.39045 283.76 ≤ 2 ≤ 872.38 d) n = 16 s2 = 19.56 80% C.I. 2 2 .90,15 = 8.54675 .10,15 = 22.3071 (16 1)(19.56) ( 16 1)(19.56) ≤ 2 ≤ 22.3071 8.54675 4.38 ≤ 2 ≤ 34.33 n = 16 s2 = 37.1833 2.99,15 = 5.22936 98% C.I. df = 19 – 1 = 18 df = 16 – 1 = 15 df = 16-1 = 15 2.01,15 = 30.5780 (16 1)(37.1833) (16 1)(37.1833) < 2 < 30.5780 5.22936 18.24 < 2 < 106.66 8.37 n = 18 s = 4.5 s2 = 20.25 98% C.I. 2 2 .99,17 = 6.40774 .01,17 = 33.4087 (18 1)(20.25) (18 1)(20.25) ≤ 2 ≤ 33.4087 6.40774 2 10.30 ≤ ≤ 53.72 Point Estimate = s2 = 20.25 df = 18 – 1 = 17 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 15 8.38 s2 = 3.067 n = 15 2.995,14 = 4.07466 df = 15 – 1 = 14 99% C.I. 2.005,14 = 31.3194 (15 1)(3.067) (15 1)(3.067) < 2 < 31.3194 4.07466 1.37 < 2 < 10.54 8.39 s2 = 26,080,949.45 n = 14 95% C.I. df = 14 – 1 = 13 Point Estimate = s2 = 26,080,949.45 2.975,13 = 5.00874 2.025,13 = 24.7356 (14 1)( 26,080,949.45) (14 1)( 26,080,949.45) ≤ 2 ≤ 24.7356 5.00874 3,163,167.59 ≤ 2 ≤ 67,692,142.70 8.40 a) = 36 n= E=5 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (36) 2 = 199.15 E2 52 Sample 200 b) = 4.13 n= E=1 z 2 2 (2.575) 2 (4.13) 2 E2 12 99% Confidence = 113.1 Sample 114 c) E = 10 Range = 500 - 80 = 420 1/4 Range = (.25)(420) = 105 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z.005 = 2.575 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 16 n = z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (105) 2 = 298.3 E2 10 2 Sample 299 d) E=3 Range = 108 - 50 = 58 1/4 Range = (.25)(58) = 14.5 88% Confidence n = z.06 = 1.555 z 2 2 (1.555) 2 (14.5) 2 E2 32 = 56.5 Sample 57 8.41 a) E = .01 p = .42 96% Confidence z.02 = 2.05 z 2 p q ( 2.05) 2 (. 42)(. 58) = 10237.29 E2 (. 01) 2 Sample size = 10238 n = b) E = .03 p = .50 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(. 50) = 1067.11 E2 (.03) 2 Sample size = 1068 n = c) E = .04 p = .44 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (. 44)(. 56) n = = 416.73 E2 (. 04) 2 Sample size = 417 d) E =.02 p = .50 99% Confidence z 2 p q (2.575) 2 (. 50)(. 50) = 4144.14 E2 (. 02) 2 Sample size = 4145 n = z.005 = 2.575 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 17 8.42 = $1,000 E = $200 n = 99% Confidence z.005 = 2.575 z 2 2 (2.575) 2 (1000) 2 = 165.77 E2 200 2 Sample 166 8.43 = $10.50 E = $3 90% Confidence z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (10.50) 2 = 33.15 E2 32 Sample size = 34 n = 8.44 E = $100 Range = $2,500 - $600 = $1,900 1/4 Range = (.25)($1,900) = $475 90% Confidence n = z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (475) 2 = 61.05 E2 100 2 Sample 62 8.45 p = .20 q = .80 90% Confidence, n = E = .02 z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (. 20)(. 80) = 1082.41 E2 (. 02) 2 Sample 1083 8.46 p = .50 q = .50 E = .05 z.05 = 1.645 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 18 95% Confidence, z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(. 50) n = = 384.16 E2 (.05) 2 Sample 385 8.47 E = .10 p = .50 q = .50 95% Confidence, n = z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(. 50) = 96.04 E2 (.10) 2 Sample 97 8.48 x = 45.6 = 7.75 80% confidence xz n n = 35 z.10 = 1.28 45.6 1.28 7.75 35 = 45.6 + 1.68 43.92 < < 47.28 94% confidence xz n z.03 = 1.88 45.6 1.88 7.75 35 = 45.6 + 2.46 43.14 < < 48.06 98% confidence xz n z.01 = 2.33 45.6 2.33 42.55 < < 48.65 7.75 35 = 45.6 + 3.05 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 19 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 20 8.49 x = 12.03 (point estimate) /2 = .05 For 90% confidence: xt s n s = .4373 12.03 1.833 (.4373) n = 10 df = 9 t.05,9= 1.833 = 12.03 + .25 10 11.78 < < 12.28 /2 = .025 For 95% confidence: xt s n 12.03 2.262 (.4373) t.025,9 = 2.262 = 12.03 + .31 10 11.72 < < 12.34 /2 = .005 For 99% confidence: xt s n 12.03 3.25 (.4373) t.005,9 = 3.25 = 12.03 + .45 10 11.58 < < 12.48 8.50 a) n = 715 pˆ x = 329 95% confidence z.025 = 1.96 329 = .46 715 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.46)(.54) .46 1.96 = .46 + .0365 n 715 .4235 < p < .4965 b) n = 284 pˆ z p̂ = .71 90% confidence z.05 = 1.645 pˆ qˆ (.71)(.29) = .71 + .0443 .71 1.645 n 284 .6657 < p < .7543 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 21 c) n = 1250 pˆ z p̂ = .48 95% confidence z.025 = 1.96 pˆ qˆ (.48)(.52) .48 1.96 = .48 + .0277 n 1250 .4523 < p < .5077 d) n = 457 pˆ x = 270 98% confidence z.01 = 2.33 270 = .591 457 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.591)(.409) = .591 + .0536 .591 2.33 n 457 .5374 < p < .6446 8.51 n = 10 s2 = 54.7667 s = 7.40045 90% confidence, 2.95,9 = 3.32512 /2 = .05 df = 10 – 1 = 9 1 - /2 = .95 2.05,9 = 16.9190 (10 1)(54.7667) (10 1)(54.7667) < 2 < 16.9190 3.32512 29.133 < 2 < 148.235 95% confidence, 2.975,9 = 2.70039 /2 = .025 1 - /2 = .975 2.025,9 = 19.0228 (10 1)(54.7667) (10 1)(54.7667) < 2 < 19.0228 2.70039 25.911 < 2 < 182.529 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 22 8.52 a) = 44 n = E=3 95% confidence z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (44) 2 = 826.4 E2 32 Sample 827 b) E=2 Range = 88 - 20 = 68 use = 1/4(range) = (.25)(68) = 17 90% confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (17) 2 = 195.5 E2 22 Sample 196 c) E = .04 p = .50 98% confidence q = .50 z.01 = 2.33 z 2 p q ( 2.33) 2 (. 50)(. 50) = 848.3 E2 (. 04) 2 Sample 849 d) E = .03 p = .70 95% confidence q = .30 z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.70)(. 30) = 896.4 E2 (.03) 2 Sample 897 z.025 = 1.96 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 23 8.53 n = 17 x = 10.765 /2 = .005 99% confidence s xt n s = 2.223 10.765 2.921 2.223 df = 17 - 1 = 16 t.005,16 = 2.921 = 10.765 + 1.575 17 9.19 < µ < 12.34 8.54 p = .40 n = E=.03 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (. 40)(. 60) = 721.61 E2 (. 03) 2 Sample 722 8.55 s2 = 4.941 n = 17 2.995,16 = 5.14216 99% C.I. df = 17 – 1 = 16 2.005,16 = 34.2671 (17 1)(4.941) (17 1)(4.941) < 2 < 34.2671 5.14216 2.307 < 2 < 15.374 8.56 n = 45 98% Confidence xz = 48 x = 213 n 213 2.33 196.33 < µ < 229.67 z.01 = 2.33 48 45 = 213 ± 16.67 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 24 8.57 n = 39 90% confidence xz = 3.891 x = 37.256 n z.05 = 1.645 37.256 1.645 3.891 = 37.256 ± 1.025 39 36.231 < µ < 38.281 8.58 = 6 E=1 98% Confidence z.98 = 2.33 z 2 2 (2.33) 2 (6) 2 = 195.44 E2 12 n = Sample 196 8.59 n = 1,255 pˆ x = 714 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 714 = .569 1255 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.569)(.431) .569 1.96 = .569 ± .027 n 1,255 .542 < p < .596 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 25 8.60 n = 41 x 128 s = 21 98% C.I. t.01,40 = 2.423 Point Estimate = $128 s xt n 128 2.423 21 41 = 128 + 7.947 120.053 < < 135.947 Interval Width = 135.947 – 120.053 = 15.894 8.61 n = 60 x = 6.717 98% Confidence xz s n = 3.06 z.01 = 2.33 N n 3.06 300 60 = 6.717 2.33 N 1 60 300 1 6.717 ± 0.825 5.892 < µ < 7.542 8.62 E = $20 Range = $600 - $30 = $570 1/4 Range = (.25)($570) = $142.50 95% Confidence n = N = 300 z.025 = 1.96 z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (142.50) 2 = 195.02 E2 20 2 Sample 196 df = 41 – 1 = 40 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 26 8.63 n = 245 pˆ x = 189 90% Confidence z.05= 1.645 x 189 = .77 n 245 pˆ qˆ (.77)(.23) = .77 ± .044 .77 1.645 n 245 pˆ z .726 < p < .814 8.64 n = 90 pˆ x = 30 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 x 30 = .33 n 90 pˆ qˆ (.33)(.67) .33 1.96 = .33 ± .097 n 90 pˆ z .233 < p < .427 8.65 n = 12 x = 43.7 s2 = 228 df = 12 – 1 = 11 t.025,11 = 2.201 xt s n 43.7 2.201 228 12 = 43.7 + 9.59 34.11 < < 53.29 2.99,11 = 3.05350 2.01,11 = 24.7250 (12 1)(228) (12 1)(228) < 2 < 24.7250 3.05350 101.44 < 2 < 821.35 95% C.I. Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 27 8.66 n = 27 x = 4.82 95% CI: s xt n s = 0.37 df = 26 t.025,26 = 2.056 4.82 2.056 0.37 27 = 4.82 + .1464 4.6736 < µ < 4.9664 Since 4.50 is not in the interval, we are 95% confident that µ does not equal 4.50. 8.67 n = 77 = 12 x = 2.48 95% Confidence xz n 2.48 1.96 z.025 = 1.96 12 77 = 2.48 ± 2.68 -0.20 < µ < 5.16 The point estimate is 2.48 The interval is inconclusive. It says that we are 95% confident that the average arrival time is somewhere between .20 of a minute (12 seconds) early and 5.16 minutes late. Since zero is in the interval, there is a possibility that, on average, the flights are on time. 8.68 n = 560 p̂ =.33 99% Confidence pˆ z z.005= 2.575 pˆ qˆ (.33)(.67) = .33 ± .05 .33 2.575 n 560 .28 < p < .38 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 28 8.69 p = .50 E = .05 98% Confidence z.01 = 2.33 z 2 p q ( 2.33) 2 (. 50)(. 50) = 542.89 E2 (. 05) 2 Sample 543 8.70 n = 27 x = 2.10 98% confidence s xt n s = 0.86 /2 = .01 2.10 2.479 0.86 27 df = 27 - 1 = 26 t.01,26 = 2.479 = 2.10 ± 0.41 1.69 < µ < 2.51 8.71 df = 23 – 1 = 22 n = 23 2.95,22 = 12.33801 s = .0631455 90% C.I. 2.05,22 = 33.9245 (23 1)(.0631455) 2 (23 1)(.0631455) 2 < 2 < 33.9245 12.33801 .0026 < 2 < .0071 8.72 n = 39 xz x = 1.294 n 1.294 2.575 1.209 < µ < 1.379 = 0.205 0.205 39 99% Confidence = 1.294 ± .085 z.005 = 2.575 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 29 8.73 The sample mean fill for the 58 cans is 11.9788 oz. with a standard deviation of .0536 oz. The 99% confidence interval for the population fill is 11.9607 oz. to 11.9969 oz. which does not include 12 oz. We are 99% confident that the population mean is not 12 oz., indicating that the machine may be under filling the cans. 8.74 The point estimate for the average length of burn of the new bulb is 2198.217 hours. Eighty-four bulbs were included in this study. A 90% confidence interval can be constructed from the information given. The error of the confidence interval is + 27.76691. Combining this with the point estimate yields the 90% confidence interval of 2198.217 + 27.76691 = 2170.450 < µ < 2225.984. 8.75 The point estimate for the average age of a first time buyer is 27.63 years. The sample of 21 buyers produces a standard deviation of 6.54 years. We are 98% confident that the actual population mean age of a first-time home buyer is between 24.0222 years and 31.2378 years. 8.76 A poll of 781 American workers was taken. Of these, 506 drive their cars to work. Thus, the point estimate for the population proportion is 506/781 = .647887. A 95% confidence interval to estimate the population proportion shows that we are 95% confident that the actual value lies between .61324 and .681413. The error of this interval is + .0340865.