Frank Cowell: UB Public Economics June 2005 Inequality and Poverty Public Economics: University of Barcelona Frank Cowell http://darp.lse.ac.uk/ub Frank Cowell: Issues to be addressed UB Public Economics Builds on lecture 2 Extension of ranking criteria “Distributional Equity, Social Welfare” Parade diagrams Generalised Lorenz curve Extend SWF analysis to inequality Examine structure of inequality Link with the analysis of poverty Frank Cowell: Major Themes Contrast three main approaches to the subject UB Public Economics Structure of the population intuitive via SWF via analysis of structure Composition of inequality and poverty Implications for measures The use of axiomatisation Capture what is “reasonable”? Find a common set of axioms for related problems Frank Cowell: Overview... Inequality and Poverty Inequality rankings UB Public Economics Relationship with welfare rankings Inequality measurement Inequality and decomposition Poverty measures Poverty rankings Frank Cowell: Inequality rankings UB Public Economics Begin by using welfare analysis of previous lecture Seek inequality ranking We take as a basis the second-order distributional ranking …but introduce a small modification The 2nd-order dominance concept was originally expressed in a more restrictive form. Frank Cowell: Yet another important relationship The share of the proportion q of distribution F is given UB Public Economics by L(F;q) := C(F;q) / m(F) Yields Lorenz dominance, or the “shares” ranking G Lorenz-dominates F means: for every q, L(G;q) L(F;q), for some q, L(G;q) > L(F;q) The Atkinson (1970) result: For given m, G Lorenz-dominates F W(G) > W(F) for all WW2 Frank Cowell: The Lorenz diagram 1 UB Public Economics 0.8 L(.; q) 0.6 L(G;.) Lorenz curve for F 0.4 L(F;.) 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 proportion of population q 0.8 1 practical example, UK Frank Cowell: Official concepts of income: UK original income UB Public Economics + cash benefits What distributional ranking would we expect to apply to these 5 concepts? gross income - direct taxes disposable income - indirect taxes post-tax income + non-cash benefits final income 1.0 UB Public Economics Original Income Gross Income Disposable Income After Tax Income Final Income (Equality Line) 0.9 0.8 0.7 Proportion of Income Frank Cowell: Impact of Taxes and Benefits. UK 2000/1. Lorenz Curve 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Proportion of population 0.8 0.9 1.0 Frank Cowell: Assessment of example UB Public Economics We might have guessed the outcome… In most countries: Income tax progressive So are public expenditures But indirect tax is regressive So Lorenz-dominance is not surprising. But what happens if we look at the situation over time? 1.0 0.9 UB Public Economics 1993 2000-1 (Equality Line) 0.8 0.7 Proportion of Income Frank Cowell: “Final income” – Lorenz 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Proportion of population 0.8 0.9 1.0 Frank Cowell: “Original income” – Lorenz 1.01.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.80.7 Proportion of Income UB Public Economics 1993 2000-1 (Equality Line) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.50.3 Lorenz curves intersect Is 1993 more equal? 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Proportion of population 0.8 0.9 1.0 Or 2000-1? Frank Cowell: Inequality ranking: Summary UB Public Economics Second-order (GL)-dominance is equivalent to ranking by cumulations. From the welfare lecture Lorenz dominance equivalent to ranking by shares. Special case of GL-dominance normalised by means. Where Lorenz-curves intersect unambiguous inequality orderings are not possible. This makes inequality measures especially interesting. Frank Cowell: Overview... Inequality and Poverty Inequality rankings UB Public Economics Three ways of approaching an index Inequality measurement Inequality and decomposition Poverty measures Poverty rankings •Intuition •Social welfare •Distance Frank Cowell: An intuitive approach UB Public Economics Lorenz comparisons (second-order dominance) may be indecisive But we may want to “force a solution” The problem is essentially one of aggregation of information Why worry about aggregation? It may make sense to use a very simple approach Go for something that you can “see” Go back to the Lorenz diagram Frank Cowell: The best-known inequality measure? 1 UB Public Economics 0.8 0.6 Gini Coefficient 0.5 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 proportion of population 0.8 1 Frank Cowell: The Gini coefficient UB Public Economics 1. Equivalent ways of writing the Gini: Normalised area above Lorenz curve 2. Normalised difference between income pairs. Frank Cowell: Intuitive approach: difficulties UB Public Economics Essentially arbitrary What is the relationship with social welfare? The Gini index also has some “structural” problems Does not mean that Gini is a bad index But what is the basis for it? We will see this in the next section What is the relationship with social welfare? Examine the welfare-inequality relationship directly Frank Cowell: Overview... Inequality and Poverty Inequality rankings UB Public Economics Three ways of approaching an index Inequality measurement Inequality and decomposition Poverty measures Poverty rankings •Intuition •Social welfare •Distance Frank Cowell: SWF and inequality UB Public Economics Issues to be addressed: the derivation of an index the nature of inequality aversion the structure of the SWF Begin with the SWF W Examine contours in Irene-Janet space Frank Cowell: Equally-Distributed Equivalent Income The Irene &Janet diagram A given distribution Distributions with same mean xj Contours of the SWF UB Public Economics Construct an equal distribution E such that W(E) = W(F) EDE income Social waste from inequality •E O x(F) m(F) Curvature of contour indicates society’s willingness to tolerate “efficiency loss” in pursuit of greater equality •F xi Frank Cowell: Welfare-based inequality UB Public Economics From the concept of social waste Atkinson (1970) suggested an inequality measure: Ede income x(F) I(F) = 1 – —— m(F) Mean income Atkinson assumed an additive social welfare function that satisfied the other basic axioms. W(F) = u(x) dF(x) Introduced an extra assumption: Iso-elastic welfare. x 1-e – 1 u(x) = ————, e 1–e Frank Cowell: The Atkinson Index UB Public Economics Given scale-invariance, additive separability of welfare Inequality takes the form: Given the Harsanyi argument… index of inequality aversion e based on risk aversion. More generally see it as a stament of social values Examine the effect of different values of e relationship between u(x) and x relationship between u′(x) and x Frank Cowell: Social utility and relative income U UB Public Economics e = 4 3 e =1/2 2 e =1 1 e =2 e =5 0 1 -1 -2 2 3 4 5 x/m Frank Cowell: Relationship between welfare weight and income e =1 U' UB Public Economics e =2 e =5 4 3 2 e =0 1 e =1/2 e =1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 x/m Frank Cowell: Overview... Inequality and Poverty Inequality rankings UB Public Economics Three ways of approaching an index Inequality measurement Inequality and decomposition Poverty measures Poverty rankings •Intuition •Social welfare •Distance Frank Cowell: A further look at inequality UB Public Economics The Atkinson SWF route provides a coherent approach to inequality. But do we need to approach via social welfare An indirect approach Maybe introduces unnecessary assumptions, Alternative route: “distance” and inequality Consider a generalisation of the Irene-Janet diagram xj UB Public Economics Janet's income Frank Cowell: The 3-Person income distribution Income Distributions With Given Total 0 xi Frank Cowell: Inequality contours Set of distributions for given total Set of distributions for a higher (given) total Perfect equality xj UB Public Economics Inequality contours for original level Inequality contours for higher level 0 xi Frank Cowell: A distance interpretation UB Public Economics Can see inequality as a deviation from the norm The norm in this case is perfect equality Two key questions… …what distance concept to use? How are inequality contours on one level “hooked up” to those on another? Frank Cowell: Another class of indices UB Public Economics Consider the Generalised Entropy class of inequality measures: The parameter a is an indicator sensitivity of each member of the class. a large and positive gives a “top -sensitive” measure a negative gives a “bottom-sensitive” measure Related to the Atkinson class Frank Cowell: Inequality and a distance concept UB Public Economics The Generalised Entropy class can also be written: Which can be written in terms of income shares s Using the distance criterion s1−a/ [1−a] … Can be interpreted as weighted distance of each income shares from an equal share Frank Cowell: The Generalised Entropy Class UB Public Economics GE class is rich Includes two indices from Henri Theil: a= 1: a= 0: [ x / m(F)] log (x / m(F)) dF(x) – log (x / m(F)) dF(x) For a < 1 it is ordinally equivalent to Atkinson class a= 1 – e. For a = 2 it is ordinally equivalent to (normalised) variance. Frank Cowell: Inequality contours UB Public Economics Each family of contours related to a different concept of distance Some are very obvious… …others a bit more subtle Start with an obvious one the Euclidian case Frank Cowell: GE contours: a=2 UB Public Economics Frank Cowell: GE contours: a<2 UB Public Economics a=.25 a= a=−.25 a=−1 Frank Cowell: GE contours: a limiting case UB Public Economics a=−∞ Total priority to the poorest Frank Cowell: GE contours: another limiting case UB Public Economics a=+∞ Total priority to the richest Frank Cowell: By contrast: Gini contours UB Public Economics Not additively separable Frank Cowell: Distance: a generalisation UB Public Economics The responsibility approach gives a reference income distribution Redefine inequality measurement Exact version depends on balance of compensation rules And on income function. not based on perfect equality as a norm use the norm income distribution from the responsibility approach Devooght (2004) bases this on Cowell (1985) Cowell approach based on Theil’s conditional entropy Instead of looking at distance going from perfect equality to actual distribution... Start from the reference distribution Frank Cowell: Overview... Inequality and Poverty Inequality rankings UB Public Economics Structural issues Inequality measurement Inequality and decomposition Poverty measures Poverty rankings Frank Cowell: Why decomposition? UB Public Economics Resolve questions in decomposition and population heterogeneity: Incomplete information International comparisons Inequality accounting Gives us a handle on axiomatising inequality measures Decomposability imposes structure. Like separability in demand analysis first, some terminology Frank Cowell: • The population • Attribute 1 • Attribute 2 • One subgroup A partition population share UB Public Economics pj income share (3) (1) (i) sj (ii) Ij subgroup inequality (iii) (iv) (2) (4) (5) (6) Frank Cowell: What type of decomposition? UB Public Economics Distinguish three types of decomposition by subgroup In increasing order of generality these are: Inequality accounting Additive decomposability General consistency Which type is a matter of judgment More on this below Each type induces a class of inequality measures The “stronger” the decomposition requirement… …the “narrower” the class of inequality measures Frank Cowell: 1:Inequality accounting UB Public Economics This is the most restrictive form accounting equation of decomposition: weight function adding-up property Frank Cowell: 2:Additive Decomposability UB Public Economics As type 1, but no adding-up constraint: Frank Cowell: 3:General Consistency UB Public Economics The weakest version: increasing in each subgroup’s inequality population shares income shares Frank Cowell: A class of decomposable indices UB Public Economics Given scale-invariance and additive decomposability, Inequality takes the Generalised Entropy form: Just as we had earlier in the lecture. Now we have a formal argument for this family. The weight wj on inequality in group j is wj = pjasj1−a Frank Cowell: What type of decomposition? UB Public Economics Assume scale independence… Inequality accounting: Theil indices only (a=,1) Here wj = pj or wj = sj Additive decomposability: Generalised Entropy Indices General consistency: moments, Atkinson, ... But is there something missing here? We pursue this later Frank Cowell: What type of partition? UB Public Economics General Non-overlapping in incomes The approach considered so far Any characteristic used as basis of partition Age, gender, region, income Induces specific class of inequality measures ... but excludes one very important measure A weaker version Partition just on the basis of income Allows one to include the "missing" inequality measure Distinction between them is crucial for one special inequality measure Frank Cowell: The Gini coefficient 1 0.8 UB Public Economics Different (equivalent) ways of writing the Gini: Normalised area under the Lorenz curve Gini Coefficient 0.6 0.4 0.2 proportion of population 0 Normalised pairwise differences A ranking-weighted average 0.2 0.4 0.6 But ranking depends on reference distribution 0.8 1 0 Frank Cowell: Partitioning by income... Non-overlapping income groups Overlapping income groups Consider a transfer:Case 1 UB Public Economics Consider a transfer:Case 2 N1 0 x x* x N2 x** x' N1 x x' Case 1: effect on Gini is same in subgroup and population Case 2: effect on Gini differs in subgroup and population Frank Cowell: Non-overlapping decomposition UB Public Economics Can be particularly valuable in empirical applications Useful for rich/middle/poor breakdowns Especially where data problems in tails Misrecorded data Incomplete data Volatile data components Example: Piketty-Saez on US (QJE 2003) Look at behaviour of Capital gains in top income share Should this affect conclusions about trend in inequality? UB Public Economics 1997 1993 1989 1985 1981 1977 1973 1969 1965 1961 1957 1953 1949 1945 1941 1937 1933 1929 1925 1921 1917 1913 Frank Cowell: Top income shares in US 50 45 40 P90–100 35 30 25 P99–100 CG excl 20 15 10 P99–100 CG Incl 5 0 Frank Cowell: Choosing an inequality measure UB Public Economics Do you want an index that accords with intuition? Is decomposability essential? If so, what’s the basis for the intuition? If so, what type of decomposability? Do you need a welfare interpretation? If so, what welfare principles to apply? Frank Cowell: Overview... Inequality and Poverty Inequality rankings UB Public Economics …Identification and measurement Inequality measurement Inequality and decomposition Poverty measures Poverty rankings Frank Cowell: Poverty analysis – overview Basic ideas UB Public Economics Income – similar to inequality problem? Consumption, expenditure or income? Time period Risk Income receiver – as before Relation to decomposition Development of specific measures Relation to inequality What axiomatisation? Use of ranking techniques Relation to welfare rankings Frank Cowell: Poverty measurement UB Public Economics How to break down the basic issues. Sen (1979): Two main types of issues Jenkins and Lambert (1997): “3Is” Identification problem Aggregation problem Identification Intensity Inequality population Present approach: Fundamental partition Individual identification Aggregation of information non-poor poor Frank Cowell: Poverty and partition UB Public Economics Depends on definition of poverty line Exogeneity of partition? Asymmetric treatment of information Frank Cowell: Counting the poor UB Public Economics Use the concept of individual poverty evaluation Simplest version is (0,1) (non-poor, poor) headcount Perhaps make it depend on income poverty deficit Or on the whole distribution? Convenient to work with poverty gaps UB Public Economics poverty evaluation Frank Cowell: The poverty line and poverty gaps gi 0 gj xi xj x* x income Frank Cowell: Poverty evaluation the “head-count” poverty evaluation Income equalisation amongst the poor Poor Non-Poor x=0 UB Public Economics the “poverty deficit” sensitivity to inequality amongst the poor B A gj 0 g gi poverty gap Frank Cowell: Brazil 1985: How Much Poverty? A highly skewed distribution A “conservative” x* UB Public Economics A “generous” x* An “intermediate” x* The censored income distribution Rural Belo Horizonte poverty line compromise poverty line Brasilia poverty line $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 $300 Frank Cowell: The distribution of poverty gaps UB Public Economics $0 $20 $40 $60 gaps Frank Cowell: ASP UB Public Economics Additively Separable Poverty measures ASP approach simplifies poverty evaluation Depends on own income and the poverty line. Assumes decomposability amongst the poor Overall poverty is an additively separable function p(x, x*) P = p(x, x*) dF(x) Analogy with decomposable inequality measures Frank Cowell: A class of poverty indices UB Public Economics ASP leads to several classes of measures Make poverty evaluation depends on poverty gap. Normalise by poverty line Foster-Greer-Thorbecke class Frank Cowell: Poverty evaluation functions UB Public Economics 1 p(x,x*) 0.8 0.6 a=0 a=1 0.4 a=1.5 a=2 0.2 a=2.5 x*-x 0 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Frank Cowell: Empirical robustness UB Public Economics Does it matter which poverty criterion you use? Look at two key measures from the ASP class Use two standard poverty lines Head-count ratio Poverty deficit (or average poverty gap) $1.08 per day at 1993 PPP $2.15 per day at 1993 PPP How do different regions of the world compare? What’s been happening over time? Use World-Bank analysis Chen-Ravallion “How have the world’s poorest fared since the early 1980s?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 3341 Frank Cowell: Poverty rates by region 1981 UB Public Economics China East Asia India South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa All regions Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Eastern Europe and Central Asia Headcount $1.08 $2.15 63.80 1 88.10 57.70 2 84.80 54.40 3 89.60 51.50 4 89.10 41.60 5 73.30 40.40 6 66.70 9.70 7 26.90 5.10 8 28.90 0.70 9 4.70 3 4 1 2 5 6 8 7 9 Poverty gap $1.08 $2.15 23.41 1 50.82 20.58 2 47.20 17.27 3 47.22 16.06 5 45.78 17.03 4 38.54 13.92 6 35.02 2.75 7 10.66 1.00 8 8.81 0.17 9 1.39 1 3 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 Frank Cowell: Poverty rates by region 2001 UB Public Economics Sub-Saharan Africa India South Asia All regions China East Asia Latin America and Caribbean Eastern Europe and Central Asia Middle East and North Africa Headcount $1.08 $2.15 46.90 1 76.60 34.70 2 79.90 31.30 3 77.20 21.10 4 52.90 16.60 5 46.70 14.90 6 47.40 9.50 7 24.50 3.70 8 19.70 2.40 9 23.20 3 1 2 4 6 5 7 9 8 Poverty gap $1.08 $2.15 20.29 1 41.42 7.08 2 34.43 6.37 3 32.35 5.96 4 21.21 3.94 5 18.44 3.35 7 17.78 3.36 6 10.20 0.79 8 5.94 0.45 9 6.14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8 Frank Cowell: Poverty: East Asia UB Public Economics Headcount at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $2.15 per day 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 20 10 0 1983 UB Public Economics Headcount at $2.15 per day 1981 Frank Cowell: Poverty: South Asia Headcount at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $2.15 per day 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 0 1983 UB Public Economics Headcount at $2.15 per day 1981 Frank Cowell: Poverty: Latin America, Caribbean Headcount at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $2.15 per day 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 0 1983 UB Public Economics Headcount at $2.15 per day 1981 Frank Cowell: Poverty: Middle East and N.Africa Headcount at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $2.15 per day 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 0 1983 UB Public Economics Headcount at $2.15 per day 1981 Frank Cowell: Poverty: Sub-Saharan Africa Headcount at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $1.08 per day Poverty gap at $2.15 per day 25 20 15 10 5 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 0 1983 UB Public Economics Headcount at $2.15 per day 1981 Frank Cowell: Poverty: Eastern Europe and Central Asia Frank Cowell: Empirical robustness (2) UB Public Economics Does it matter which poverty criterion you use? An example from Spain Data are from ECHP OECD equivalence scale Poverty line is 60% of 1993 median income Does it matter which FGT index you use? Frank Cowell: Poverty in Spaion 1993—2000 UB Public Economics Frank Cowell: Overview... Inequality and Poverty Inequality rankings UB Public Economics Another look at ranking issues Inequality measurement Inequality and decomposition Poverty measures Poverty rankings Frank Cowell: An extension of poverty analysis UB Public Economics Finally consider some generalisations What if we do not know the poverty line? Can we find a counterpart to second order dominance in welfare analysis? What if we try to construct poverty indices from first principles? Frank Cowell: Poverty rankings (1) UB Public Economics Atkinson (1987) connects poverty and welfare. Based results on the portfolio literature concerning “below-target returns” Theorem Given a bounded range of poverty lines (x*min, x*max) and poverty measures of the ASP form a necessary and sufficient condition for poverty to be lower in distribution F than in distribution G is that the poverty deficit be no greater in F than in G for all x* ≤ x*max. Equivalent to requiring that the second-order dominance condition hold for all x*. Frank Cowell: Poverty rankings (2) UB Public Economics Foster and Shorrocks (1988a, 1988b) have a similar approach to orderings by P, But concentrate on the FGT index’s particular functional form: Theorem: Poverty rankings are equivalent to first-order welfare dominance for a = 0 second-degree welfare dominance for a = 1 (third-order welfare dominance for a = 2.) Frank Cowell: Poverty concepts Given poverty line z UB Public Economics a reference point Poverty gap fundamental income difference Foster et al (1984) poverty index again Cumulative poverty gap Frank Cowell: TIP / Poverty profile UB Public Economics G(x,z) Cumulative gaps versus population proportions Proportion of poor TIP curve TIP curves have same interpretation as GLC TIP dominance implies unambiguously greater poverty i/n 0 p(x,z)/n Frank Cowell: Poverty: Axiomatic approach UB Public Economics Characterise an ordinal poverty index P(x ,z) See Ebert and Moyes (JPET 2002) Use some of the standard axioms we introduced for analysing social welfare Apply them to n+1 incomes – those of the n individuals and the poverty line Show that given just these axioms… …you are bound to get a certain type of poverty measure. Frank Cowell: Poverty: The key axioms UB Public Economics Standard ones from lecture 2 anonymity independence monotonicity income increments reduce poverty Strengthen two other axioms scale invariance translation invariance Also need continuity Plus a focus axiom Frank Cowell: A closer look at the axioms UB Public Economics Let D denote the set of ordered income vectors The focus axiom is Scale invariance now becomes Define the number of the poor as Independence means: Frank Cowell: Ebert-Moyes (2002) UB Public Economics Gives two types of FGT measures “relative” version “absolute” version Additivity follows from the independence axiom Frank Cowell: Brief conclusion UB Public Economics Framework of distributional analysis covers a number of related problems: Commonality of approach can yield important insights Ranking principles provide basis for broad judgments Social Welfare Inequality Poverty May be indecisive specific indices could be used Poverty trends will often be robust to choice of poverty index Poverty indexes can be constructed from scratch using standard axioms