Public Opinion
Gallup Poll:
“How satisfied are you
with the way democracy
works in your country.”
70% Satisfied
30% Unsatisfied
What is Public Opinion?
1. The collective attitude of the
citizens on a given issue or
question.
2. Difficult to measure
3. Political Elites hold more weight


More knowledgeable, consistent
Influence policy by framing issues
Three Aspects of Public Opinion
1. It can legitimize political authority
 Polls allow politicians to claim their policies are
correct
2. It can make politicians more responsive to the
public

Clinton used the word “education” 43 times in the
1996 debate
3. It can help candidates win campaigns.
 Pollsters conduct polls that make them look more
popular than they are
 Push polling
How Polling Works
• Reasonable questions
• Worded fairly
• Random Samplings—stratification
• Sampling Errors
• Exit Polling
• Accurate since 1952
“The polls
indicate we
could end up
with two
candidates in
November
neither of
whom can beat
the other.”
“When you quote a Presidential candidate,
Gorman, you do not—I repeat—do NOT roll
your eyes.”
The Art
of
Public
Polling
Market Testing
1. FDR was the first to use systematic
polling
2. JFK was the first to hire a pollster
3. Today, politicians depend on polls
Public opinion can change quickly
 In Clinton’s 1st year in office he conducted
more polling and focus group studies than
in all 4 years of the Bush Administration

4. 1994 Contract with America
 Frank Luntz
Five Qualities of Public Opinion
1.
Intensity/Saliency


2.
3.
Stability/Fluidity
Latency

4.
Don’t know/haven’t made up mind
Distribution


5.
An intense minority can win against a less intense
majority
Problem: Polling can’t measure intensity
Opinion distributed over several positions
Can determine if compromise is an option
Opinion-Policy Congruence
Political Socialization
1. The way in which people acquire
their sense of political culture and
ideology
2. Takes place slowly
3. Starts at a young age
Political
Socialization
Factors affecting Socialization
Family—children as young as 9 begin to be influenced
1.


91 % of seniors knew the presidential preference of their parents
71 % knew party identification
Only 9% identified with the opposite party
Red Diaper Babies—college radicals in the 1960s were often sons
and daughters of radicals




2.
Direct
Indirect
Schooling






In school we learn cultural values, language, norms, beliefs,
and traditions
These generally include Civility, Order, and Conformity
Nazi Germany; Japan
Higher education trends
Increased education led to increased political activity
Data on college students’ ideology is mixed

Favorable toward business, but not for small government???
The Mass Media
 Average adult spends 30 hours per week
 Children spend more time watching TV than in
school
 1996 Poll—25% of Americans learn about the
candidates from Letterman or Leno
 13% said they get most of their political news
from MTV
What does this tell us about modern politics?
4.
Social Class—working class favor social programs
-- 1998 Midterm elections—incomes of $29,000 or less
3.
----
supported Democrats;
those with incomes of $75,000 and above favored
GOP
Class differences have declined sharply in the
professions.
America has much less class consciousness than
Europe
5.
Religion


6.
Jewish voters favor social programs & civil
rights, and are generally more liberal, favor
Democrats; ’92 and ’96—they voted for Clinton
around 80%
Religion influences opinion on social issues, not
so much other issues
Gender—the Gender Gap



Women favor: Social Welfare programs,
environmental protection, affirmative action,
education
Oppose—defense spending, death penalty
Gap is between 5-12%
The Party Identification of Men and
Women: 1952-1996
7.
Ethnicity



8.
Since the New Deal, black voters have supported
Democrats: 88% supported Democratic
congressional candidates
Efficacy—Blacks distrust government more than
whites
Narrowing in recent years among the youth
Region—South vs. North


South more conservative on issues such as
abortion, marijuana, death penalty, school prayer,
and rights of the accused
Much more Republican

Cross-cutting cleavages
Generational Gaps on the Issues
Liberals and Conservatives
 Economic policy: liberals favor jobs for all,
subsidized medical care and education,
increased taxation of the rich
 Civil rights: liberals favor strong federal action
to desegregate schools, hiring opportunities
for minorities, and strict enforcement of civil
rights laws
 Public and political conduct: liberals are
tolerant of protest demonstrations, favor
legalization of marijuana, and emphasize
protecting the rights of the accused
Similar to Socialism and Populism
Political Ideology
A person’s beliefs about what
role the government should play
in our lives and what policies it
should pursue
Liberalism
 Different from “classical liberalism” which




stemmed from the 17th and 18th centuries.
1930’s FDR’s New Deal changed the
definition of liberalism
Today it means gov’t ought to be used
positively to bring about justice and equality
of results
Emphasis on progress and equality
17% of population in 1994
Liberalism then and now…
Shared Values of the
Founders=Classical Liberalism
 Liberty—religious economic…
 Equality (Egalitarianism)
 Individualism
 Popular Consent
 Rule of Law
 Limited Government

Thomas Jefferson: "government governs best when it
governs least”
Conservatism
 Since the 1950s, emphasis has been on
smaller government and stronger state’s
rights
 Reaction
against FDR, big gov’t
 Hostility to taxes;
 Emphasis on morality in social issues
 Emphasis on liberty
 28% of population in 1994
Conservatism then and now…
 Roots in 17th and 18th century
 Hamilton,
Metternich, Bismarck
 Strong central government
 State sponsored religion
 Purpose of government:
 Order
and safety
 Economy—regulated (mercantilism)
Liberals and Conservatives
 Economic policy: liberals favor jobs for all,
subsidized medical care and education,
increased taxation of the rich
 Civil rights: liberals favor strong federal action
to desegregate schools, hiring opportunities
for minorities, and strict enforcement of civil
rights laws
 Public and political conduct: liberals are
tolerant of protest demonstrations, favor
legalization of marijuana, and emphasize
protecting the rights of the accused
Libertarianism
 Socially liberal, fiscally conservative
 Government should not regulate
personal conduct
 Repeal of drug, abortion, pornography,
and prostitution laws
 21% of population in 1994
 Laissez faire capitalism
Populism
 Liberal on economic issues, conservative
on social
 Gov’t
should reduce economic inequality,
control business
 Gov’t should regulate personal conduct, be
tough on criminals
 Elimination of CIA, FBI; reduce military
 24% of population in 1994
Other options?
 Socialism
 Public (collective) ownership of means of
production
 The transitional stage between capitalism and
communism
 Expanded role of government, nationalization of
industries, and higher taxes on rich
 Anarcho-syndicalism
 Free association based on co-operative labor
 Abolition of wage system and private property
Ideological Self-Identification
How Liberals and Conservatives Differ
Liberals and Conservative
 Pure liberals: liberal on both economic and
personal conduct issues
 Pure conservatives: conservative on both
economic and personal conduct issues
 Libertarians: conservative on economic
issues, liberal on personal conduct issues
 Populists: liberal on economic issues,
conservative on personal conduct issues
Policy Preferences of
Democratic and Republican Voters