Keynote Presented at the Geoscience and the 21st Century Workforce Workshop
Sponsored by the National Science Foundation
Penn State University, June 2013
Roger H. Bezdek, Ph.D., President
Management Information Services, Inc.
Washington, D.C., rbezdek@misi-net.com

• Discuss job market for geoscience workforce
• Assess future supply of geoscience workers
• Analyze supply & demand for geoscience jobs
• Evaluate demographic trends
• Identify challenges for maintaining adequate workforce
• Analyze drivers of future job requirements
• Identify new & emerging geoscience occupations
• Discuss options for alleviating future workforce shortages
• Identify challenges & opportunities
• Identify areas of required research
2

• “Consensus” in the literature seems to be that there is a shortage of geoscientists. For example, some recent findings:
-“Society needs more geoscientists than there are presently students”
--
“Near-term demand for geoscientists that exceeds the available supply”
-“Supply falls short of current and projected demand”
-“Supply shortage of geoscience graduates”
• Is there a current & impending shortage of geoscientists?
• This is an important question
3

• Geoscientists are a subset of STEM professions -- science, technology, engineering, & math
• Is there a shortage of STEM workers?
• Everyone seems to think so
• However, studies question this; for ex.,
EPI & Boston Consulting Group
Economic Policy Institute (EPI) concludes:
-U.S. has more than a sufficient supply of workers available to work in STEM occupations
-For every 2 students that U.S. colleges graduate with STEM degrees, only 1 is hired into a STEM job
-Wages have remained flat, with real wages hovering around their late 1990s levels.
• So, what is going on here? Need H1-B visas?
What does this imply for the NSF STEM Talent Expansion Program?
4

• If there is a “shortage” of geoscience workers, then salaries should be increasing. Is this true? Yes!
Mean Annual Salaries of Geoscience Occupations
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Geoscience salaries continue to increase significantly over period when average U.S. salaries are flat 5

Average Petroleum Geologist Salary
$210
$190
$170
$150
$130
$110
$90
$70
$50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Entry Level 10-15 Yrs 20 Yrs +
Source: AAPG Annual Salary Survey
Petroleum geologists salaries have increased ~ 75% over past decade!
6

Oil & Gas Industry Geoscientist Supply and Demand
Source: American Geological Institute
7

Geoscience occupations forecast to be among the most rapidly growing
Forecast Job Growth, Selected Occupations, 2010 - 2020
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
40%
30%
20%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Geoscience jobs expected to increase 21% by 2020 – 3X average job growth
8

Age Distribution of Geoscientists in the Oil and Gas Industry
½ of total O&G workforce eligible to retire
~ 10 years
Source: American Geological Institute
Oil & gas industries have been downsizing & shedding employees for
2 decades, & now face a large impending wave of retirements 9

Age Distribution of Geoscientists in the U.S. Government
Source: American Geological Institute and U.S. Office of Personnel Management
Most Federal geoscientists eligible to retire < 10 years
10

Percentage of Federal Workforce > 50 Years Old
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
Mining Eng.
Geodesy Petrol. Eng Geology
Source: American Geological Institute and U.S. Office of Personnel Management
Geophysics Oceanography
In some fields retirement risk may be acute
11

• What is overall outlook for geoscience jobs in the U.S.?
• At present ~ 265K U.S. geoscience jobs
• Geoscience grads continuing on to geoscience careers:
Bachelor’s, 30%; Master’s, 43%; Doctorate, 66%
• Over next decade in U.S.:
-~ 130K geoscientists expected to retire
-72K geoscience job growth by 2021 (BLS)
-45K total new graduates -- BS/BA, MS, Ph.D.
• Thus, potential net deficit of > 150,000 geoscientists
• Actually, net deficit likely to be even lager due to new sources of geoscience job growth
12

Potential Shortage of Oil & Gas Industry Geoscientists
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
Why do we think that
U.S. can continue indefinitely to poach world’s supply of geoscientists?
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: American Geological Institute and Management Information Services, Inc.
However, potential shortage likely to be even more severe due to new sources of geoscience job growth
13

• Thus, there is no current or impending “glut” of geoscience professionals
• In fact, just the opposite is true :
-Recent salary data indicate robust job market
-Forecasts indicate that demand will > supply
-Workforce deficit could exceed 150K – & this may be a conservative estimate
• The EPI study looked at all STEM occupations, and surplus labor was concentrated in computer programming & some IT fields
• It did NOT indicate a surplus of geoscience professionals
• The EPI study has important implications for future geoscience workforce, which we will discuss shortly
14

• Enrollments -- flat
• Graduation rates -- flat
• Career choices after graduation
-most geoscience grads do not remain in field
• Inflow from other specialties
• Foreign workers -- H-1B visas
• Increased participation of women in geoscience
• Increased participation of minorities in geoscience
15

U.S. Geoscience Enrollments
Source: American Geological Institute
Geoscience undergrad enrollments plateaued past 2 decades; geoscience grad enrollments plateaued past 4 decades
16

U.S. Geoscience Degrees Conferred
# of geosciences degrees awarded flat for past 3 decades
17

Percentage of Women in Environmental Science and Geoscience Occupations
Source: American Geological Institute and U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics
18

U.S. Population, 18 and Younger
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2025
Hispanic Black Combined
2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
“Minorities” – especially Hispanics -- will comprise majority of U.S. students
This will have profound impact on future U.S. workforce
19

Hispanic Percent of Federal Geoscience Workforce
Compared to Hispanic Percent of Students
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Environmental Environmental
Eng.
Sci.
Mining & Geo
Eng.
Oceanography Hispanic %
Students 2025
Hispanic %
Students 2050
Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management
Hispanics not underrepresented in Geoscience; they are hardly present at all
20

Oil & Gas (48%)
Government (17%)
Academia (16%)
Mining (10%)
Environmental
8%
--- Other (1%)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Science Foundation
Geosciences employment overwhelmingly dominated by energy industry and related sectors
21

• Historically, fortunes of geoscientists have been tied to the boom and bust cycles of the natural resource industries – oil, gas, & mining.
• Thus, future of geoscience jobs depends on future of energy industries
• What does the world’s energy future look like?
• The future energy mix will likely look much like the current one : Oil, natural gas, & coal continue to dominate
“The key to past performance has not been the expansion of resources in the ground but rather the sustained application of new technologies by skilled professionals . Technology will be even more important to sustaining industry growth in the future. So, too, will be the availability of skilled professionals to apply that technology.” American Petroleum Institute
22

In 2050, fossil fuels will still provide ~
80% of the world’s (much larger) energy supply
2050 World Energy Mix
2012 World Energy Mix
Other Energy
(14%)
Other Energy
(20%?)
Fossil Fuels
(86%)
Fossil Fuels
(80%?)
What does this imply for geoscience workforce?
23

Forecast World Energy Consumption
(Mtoe: Million Tons Oil Equivalent)
Source: International Energy Agency 24

Forecast U.S. Fossil Fuel Prices
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Oil Natural Gas Coal
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
In real terms, oil prices increase 37%, natural gas prices increase 56%, and coal prices increase 20%, and these may be conservative estimates 25

World Liquid Fuel Production Increased up to
Mid 2004 & Then Hit Fluctuating Plateau
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
World “conventional” oil production will likely never exceed ~ 70 MMbbl/day
26

World in a race between declining conventional oil production & increasing unconventional oil production
The era of “easy” oil is past; future oil will be increasingly difficult, expensive, “dirty,” and increasingly “technology-challenged”
27

• Coal was the world’s dominant energy source in the 19 th century
• Coal was the world’s major energy source in the 20 th century :
-More energy was obtained from coal than from oil
-Thus, contrary to common perception, 20 th the “coal century,” not the “oil century”
• Coal is the world’s most rapidly growing century was really energy source in the 21 th century :
-Coal use grew twice as fast as any other energy source over past decade
-Coal’s dominance is forecast to continually increase
• Coal necessary to meet world’s rising energy demand
28

Coal Share of Total World Energy Consumption: 2000 - 2035
30%
28%
26%
24%
22%
20%
2000 2007 2015 2020 2030 2035
Source: International Energy Agency, 2010.
Coal’s share of total world energy consumption forecast to increase by > 1/4: From < 23% in 2000 to > 29% in 2035.
29

Hydraulic fracturing (fracing) has revolutionized natural gas production
30

25
History Projections
Alaska
20
Shale gas
Coalbed methane
15
Non-associated
Onshore
10
5
Non-associated
Offshore
Gas associated with oil
Net imports
-
1990 1995
Source: EIA
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
“EIA is increasingly relying on huge production increases from shale gas to meet its U.S. natural gas forecast.”
2035
31

Number of U.S. Natural Gas Wells vs. Average
Productivity Of Each Well, 1990 - 2010
32

• Shale gas wells have very high annual production decline rates:
-Conventional gas wells decline 25% - 40% in 1st year
-SG wells decline at much higher rates, ~ 85%.
• Initial productivity can be very high
• However, steep decline rates mean that relying on SG will exacerbate
“exploration treadmill” problem
• # of SG wells that must be drilled to maintain production will continue to increase.
“Estimated ultimate recovery from shale gas wells has been overstated by operators, and shale gas plays are marginally commercial at best in the current low gas price environment.
”
33

Annual Successful U.S. NG Wells v. U.S. NG Production
Drilling tripled, but production increased only ~ 20%
34

GHG Emissions (grams carbon per million joules of energy)
Source: Cornell University.
Fuel switching from coal to natural gas could INCREASE GHGs
35

• No shortage of carbon-based fuels – world awash in hydrocarbons:
Heavy oil, oil sands, shale oil, frac gas, methane hydrates, coal, etc.
• Given: Fossil energy will continue to dominate
• May 2013: CO
2
> 400 ppm
• Trend is that GHGs will continue to increase
• THUS:
-IF world is serious about controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
-THEN carbon capture, utilization, & sequestration (CCUS) on massive scale becomes critical
36

Capture the carbon produced and safely and permanently sequester it
Worldwide, carbon capture & sequestration (CCS) will require trillions $ of investments, generate millions of jobs, & have profound impacts on the geoscience workforce
37

2
38

2
U.S. has > 40 years of experience in EOR, and it’s oil industry is the world leader in CO
2
EOR
39

2
2
This is a first-of-its-kind commercial clean coal power plant that uses the CO
2 generated for EOR
40

2
Source: ARI for NRDC, 2010.
CO
2
EOR opportunity in Texas is so large that it could absorb CO
2 from all planned coal power plants…and much more
41

• Carbon capture, utilization, & sequestration
(CCUS) increasingly imperative, e.g.:
-Carbon capture in power plants, factories, refineries, etc.
-Carbon sequestration in aquifers
-Carbon utilization in enhanced oil recovery (EOR)
-Carbon utilization as a feedstock
• Studies have estimated economic & job impacts of CCUS initiatives & found them to be huge: Annually, ~ $200 billion, > 1 million jobs
• Found that even modest CCUS initiatives will greatly increase demand for geoscience workers
• Future CCUS initiatives will be more than modest
• This is good news for geoscience workers
• But presents daunting challenges for workforce development in industry and academia
Carbon mgt./CCUS may be world’s major energy, environmental, and technology challenge of the 21 st century
42

• Growth in U.S. CCUS & related “green” sectors will lead to vast new employment opportunities – many related to geoscience
• Jobs will be created across a new spectrum of work activities , skill requirements, responsibilities, & salary levels
• Many of these jobs do not currently exist & do not have occupational titles defined in federal & st. govt. classifications
• Many of the new jobs require different set of skills than current jobs
• Education & training requirements must be assessed so that these rapidly growing sectors have enough qualified workers
• Eventually, federal government will classify the occupations & add them to the employment classification system
• Until then, geoscience jobs analysis & forecasting is conducted using the current set of U.S. Labor Dept. occupational titles
43

Jobs Created in 2030 by CO
2
(Selected Industries)
EOR
Source: Management Information Services, Inc.
44

New & Emerging Jobs, Salaries, and
Educational Requirements in the CCUS Field
Occupational Title
Average
Salary Minimum Education
Director of CCUS project development
Plant technical specialist - safety instrument testing & repair
Safety investigator - cause analyst
Plant supervising technical operator
Plant safety engineer
Air quality control engineer
Field technician
Sequestration research manager
Emissions accounting & reporting consultant
GHG emissions report verifier
CCUS sampling technician
Energy trading specialist
CCUS power generation engineer
CCUS technician
Emissions reduction credit marketer & market analyst
Emissions reduction credit portfolio manager
Emissions reduction project developer specialist
Commercial energy field auditor
Air pollution specialist
Air resource engineer
CCUS policy analyst
Air quality specialist & enforcement officer
Air emissions permitting engineer
CCUS engineer/scientist intern
$148,700
$69,400
$97,300
$56,100
$98,800
$99,700
$25,800
$80,100
$69,400
$60,200
$38,300
$69,000
$111,800
$46,800
$79,600
$50,800
$68,500
$26,000
$69,400
$79,200
$44,900
$67,100
$70,600
$6,800
Bachelor's (Business)
Bachelor's (various)
Bachelor's (various)
Bachelor's (Engineer)
Bachelor's (various)
Bachelor's (CE)
HSD/GED
Master's (Science)
Bachelor's (various)
Bachelor's (Science)
HSD/GED
Bachelor's (various)
Bachelor's (ME)
Associate's
Bachelor's (Business)
Bachelor's (Business)
Bachelor's (various)
Associate's
Bachelor's (Science)
Bachelor's (Engineer)
Bachelor's (Science)
Bachelor's (Science)
Bachelor's (Science)
HSD/GED
Source: Management Information Services, Inc.
45

New & Emerging “Green” Geoscience-related Jobs,
Salaries, and Educational Requirements
Occupational Title
Water purification systems service technician
Environmental engineering manager
GHG emissions permitting consultant
Water resource consultant
Water resource engineer
Environmental research manager
GIS specialist
Engineering geologist
Environmental sampling technician
Climatologist
Restoration planner
Carbon sequestration plant installation, operations, eng. & mgt.
Carbon emission specialist
Emissions reduction project manager
Conservation of resources commissioner
Water resources policy specialist & advocate
Climate change & energy policy specialist & advocate
Environmental compliance specialist
Geothermal operations engineer
Hydrologist-Hydrogeologist
Source: Management Information Services, Inc.
Average
Salary
$41,400
$74,200
$68,800
$81,500
$69,600
$78,100
$51,000
$69,800
$38,800
$69,000
$79,200
$75,200
$69,300
$85,700
$94,400
$45,500
$46,800
$50,200
$66,100
$67,900
Minimum Education
HSD/GED
Bachelor's (Science)
Bachelor's (Science)
Bachelor's (Science)
Bachelor's (Science)
Master's (Science)
Bachelor's (Geography)
Bachelor's (Engineer)
HSD/GED
Bachelor's (Science)
Master's (Science)
Bachelor's (Engineer)
Bachelor's (various)
Bachelor's (various)
Master's (various)
Bachelor's (Science)
Master's (Various)
Bachelor's (Science)
Bachelor's (Engineer)
Bachelor's (Science)
46

• On-the-job training?
• Retooling of existing personnel?
• Crash education and training programs?
• Delayed retirements?
• Lure people out of retirement?
• Increased reliance on foreign workers?
• Energy/CCUS demands are worldwide & foreigners may not be available – other nations may be poaching our people.
• It takes 5 - 10 years, or more, to produce highly trained geoscientists required, so we have to begin more than a decade in advance
• How do companies, universities, & governments, plan for this?
• Have to forecast workforce requirements more than a decade into future & then have universities come up to speed. Is this possible?
Likely solution is a combination of options to fill the void until geoscience graduation numbers increase to meet demand
47

• EPI study:
-Supply of STEM-educated students remains strong
-In computer & information science & in engineering, U.S. colleges graduate 50% more students than are hired into those fields each year
-Of the computer science graduates not entering IT workforce, 32% say it is because IT jobs are unavailable;
53% say they found better jobs outside of IT
-Supply of STEM graduates larger than demand for them in industry
• If true, redirect STEM/IT/CS students to geoscience : They have the basic skills required & should be good fit
48

• Current job market for geoscientists is robust
-High salaries
-Tight job market: Demand > supply
• Future job market for geoscientists excellent :
Demand likely to continue to exceed supply
• Energy industries will continue to grow & create numerous geoscience jobs
• Carbon mgt./CCUS & related environmental programs provide sources of immense job growth for geoscientists during 21 st century -- jobs immune from infamous “Boom & Bust” cycle
• Very good news for current & future geoscientists
• Especially good news in era when many college grads are saddled with huge educational loans & cannot find jobs (or are working as baristas)
• Good career advice: Tell your children, students, etc. to become geoscientists
Be realistic about future geosciences jobs: Many more mining engineers working for Shenhua and geologists working for
Chevron than “sustainability experts” working for Greenpeace
49

• Good news for students & workers may be bad news for employers & schools
• High rates of geoscientist attrition in near future
• Large % of impending retirees are in middle & upper mgt. positions that require many years of experience
• Energy industries : Workforce shortage causes project delays, cost overruns, & cancellations
•
Governments : How can public sector compete for future geoscience workers?
• Academia : How to make case for large increase in geoscience resources when budgets are tight & shrinking?
• High rates of geoscientist attrition in near future
• World priorities : Carbon mgt./CCUS/climate goals not achievable without adequate geoscience workforce
– no one is addressing this
• Where are required, qualified future geoscience workers to come from?
Next year? 5 years from now? 10 years from now?
• How to increase minorities’ enrollment in geosciences
50

• Forecast alternate demand and supply scenarios or geoscience workforce
• Methods for alleviating shortage of geoscience workers
– short term & long term solutions needed
• Geoscience least diverse of all STEM fields – why?
• How can minorities be attracted to the geoscience professions?
• Assess why most geoscience graduates do not enter the profession and identify remedies
• Assess ed. & training requirements & salaries for new, emerging geoscience occupations & develop appropriate classifications
• Analyze impacts of growth of carbon mgt./CCUS on geoscience workforce
• Geoscientists required to address problems only beginning to emerge ; e.g. CCUS monitoring, verification, insurance, liability, transactions costs, litigation, etc.
• Determine if geoscience workforce constraints may limit world’s climate change mitigation efforts & assess implications – questions no one is even asking
51