The Chronocomplexity of
Actionable Intelligence
Gus Koehler
Time Structures
1
http://www.battlespaceonline.org/eros-hoagland/ramadi-iraq-2007-02.shtml
Overview
•
The Policy Working Group’s focus is on blocking structures as wicked problems that impede the
creation and movement of actionable intelligence or military technology to the soldier and from the
soldier via network centric technology
•
This presentation looks at how networks, structures and their boundaries—including blocks—are
created and maintained by the chronocomplexity of policy decisions that regulate the movement of
information, energy, and resources. Such relationships are likely to produce wicked problems
•
It is changes in the alignment of barriers and related opening-closing of policy or opportunity
windows that creates opportunities. What are such windows and why do they occur? Is there a
special role for the policy entrepreneur?
•
We will use the term time-ecology to refer to the networks, and heterochrony to refer to the
complex flow of resources, energy, and information.
•
Issues are:
–
What chronocomplexity related factors contribute to the dynamics of wicked problems that
block the movement of military-technology and intelligence to their operational use by a
soldier?
–
How is a policy entrepreneur able to enter, assess, anticipate, and influence the behavior of
such a Chronocomplex system using policy windows?
–
How is a policy windows opened in a chronocomplex system to produce and communicate
actionable intelligence or technology when we want to a soldier?
2
Time Structures
Actionable Intelligence is Dynamic, meaning it
involves Time and Trickery
• “Actionable Intelligence is providing commanders and
soldiers a level of situational understanding, delivered
with speed, accuracy, and timeliness, in order to conduct
successful operations”
• “Actionable intelligence is not perfect intelligence, as its
an expedient intelligence, particularly in terms of being
delivered in an expedient way or not”
• Operations involve a strategy of “tricking” the enemy with
well timed and informed tactics into taking a vulnerable
position or to prevent us from being so tricked.
3
Time Structures
Battlefield and Administrative Strategy involve
Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes Trickery
“In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the outset you must
know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from among the
large and small things and fast and slow timings find the relevant timing, first
seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the main
strategy, otherwise your strategy will become uncertain. You win in battles
with the timing…of cunning by the knowing the enemies’ timing, and thus
using a timing which the enemy does not expect.” Shinmen Musashi, A Book of Five Rings
(1645).
To trick someone is to destroy their boundaries. It is to destroy a
boundary’s edge by confusing a distinction they are making and the
timing they are using to establish and carry it out. Simultaneously, it is
the creation of a new boundary, a new distinction, a reshaping of the
world. Here we are talking about breaking the boundary of the enemy’s
strategy, of the formation they are using and its timing to create a new
battlefield where they no longer exist. Lewis Hyde, Trickster Makes the World (1998).
4
Time Structures
What is a Time Ecology and Why is it Important?
•
The complex parallel activities, innovation, and feed back relationships of battlefield, simulations,
intelligence technology business and services, and legislative processes continuously organize
the evolution of the actionable intelligence cluster from top to bottom
•
The full range of linear and nonlinear time/space networked linkages of the battlefield-networkintelligence technology complex creates an interconnected ecology—a time-ecology—of growth
regulating unique, more or less intense, and often complex rhythmic pulses that occur in parallel
sometimes in sync across multiple time scales flowing at varying rates out of the past, through the
present and into the future
•
Heterochrony regulates each of the three fundamental elements of growth—size, development,
and time—leading to variation in a descendant network, organization, or individual body.
•
Small changes to a component can affect rates of flow, feeding forward or back, varying the entire
time-ecology's heterochronic pattern
•
A time-ecology of networked flows could continuously give rise, through appropriately or
inappropriately timed interventions to a complex and often emergent aggregate structure—a
wicked problem—that could not be predicted from its parts.
5
Time Structures
A Battle of Time Ecologies:
Navy Asymmetric Persian Gulf War Game
•
THE GAME: Van Riper had at his disposal a computer-generated flotilla of small boats and planes, many
of them civilian, which he kept buzzing around the virtual Persian Gulf in circles as the game was about to
get under way. As the US fleet entered the Gulf, Van Riper gave a signal - not in a radio transmission that
might have been intercepted, but in a coded message broadcast from the minarets of mosques at the call to
prayer. The seemingly harmless pleasure craft and propeller planes suddenly turned deadly, ramming into
Blue boats and airfields along the Gulf in scores of al-Qaida-style suicide attacks. Meanwhile, Chinese
Silkworm-type cruise missiles fired from some of the small boats sank the US fleet's only aircraft carrier
and two marine helicopter carriers. The tactics were reminiscent of the al-Qaida attack on the USS Cole in
Yemen two years ago, but the Blue fleet did not seem prepared. Sixteen ships were sunk altogether, along
with thousands of marines. If it had really happened, it would have been the worst naval disaster since Pearl
Harbor.
•
TIMING: Islamic communication, surprise, inconsistent with US expectations, took advantage of slow
background timing of US, used rapid space-time defining movements of small boats
•
TRICKERY: Rapidly moving small, maneuverable boats and planes overcame US Navy ship defensive
organization with boundary penetrating strategies. US Navy boundary chopped up into smaller pieces
involving multiple new boundaries and new very local rather than extended space-time.
"A phrase Van Riper heard over and over and responded to: 'That would never have happened. And I said:
nobody would have thought that anyone would fly an airliner into the World Trade Centre . . . but nobody
seemed interested."
•
•
•
SUMMARY:
Timing and Trickery succeeded on the battlefield in breaking and creating new space-time boundaries
Disconnect between this activity, its communication and interpretation at higher organizational levels who
had their own notion of time and boundary maintenance. The message did not make it up.
6
Time Structures
Operations: “Tricking” the Enemy in
Two Time-Ecologies
Bagdad Time Ecology: flat, high population
density, many housing and commercial
buildings, roads, ethnic groups conflict,
intense street to street fighting, building to building
fire fights, snipers, IUD, city business-market-school
time, rapid communications on both sides (TV, face
to face, radios, cell phones, visual, etc)
Time Structures
Afghan-Pakistan Border time-ecology:
mountainous, low population density, few housing
and commercial buildings, dirt roads, trails, and
very local ethnic groups, bandit-war lord-drug lord
control, point to point communications, runners to
communicate face to face, agrarian time, armored
vehicles, extreme flight problems, sudden fire
fights, snipers, IUDs, etc.
7
The Intelligence-Technology-Battlefield Time-Ecology
Battlefield
•
Personal
•
Line of sight
•
Natural-interface
•
Survival and Real-time
•
Timing
•
Trickery
Virtual Simulation
• Idealized-unnatural
• Non-Biological/addictive
• Computer icon
• Avatar life/death
• Real-to-Simulation time
• Networked: Hub, Node, Identify
Time Structures
Intelligence Technology
• Organizational survival
(100 years)
• Budget & Legislative cycles
• Concentration of authority
• Bureaucratic rules
• Hierarchical and networked
• Competition for funds and
projects
• Local time (8hr, home,
career, soccer, seasons)
8
http://www.battlespaceonline.org/eros-hoagland/ramadi-iraq-2007-02.shtml
Wicked problem: an emergent property of a timeecology “tree’s” shape as formed by its heterochrony
Wicked Problems may have multiple tree shapes: Threading the various timings of development and rates of change produces
a different tree and relationships among limbs, etc. Time ambiguity, that is choosing one external temporality or local point as
“the clock”, defines branching, connectivity and causality..
Wicked Problem
Barriers
Multiple Wicked
Problems
Barriers (branching
rules, bifurcations,
etc
1. Uniform development and
placement of nodes (“children”)
2. Uniform application of a single
branching rule (angle, folding, etc)
3. Causality one direction only
4. Appears to lack flow
5. Wicked problem at one location
6. Space-time uniform
1. Stem can emerge from generation of children
2. Uniform application of different complex
rules can produce different branching and children forms
3. Each “child” has its own growth rate
4. Connectors or stems have their own size and rate of flows
5. Heterochrony changes in the way it organizes the whole
6. Space-time varies
7. Multiple causal directions
Def: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L-system
Time Structures
9
Visualizing a Time-Ecology: Video
Excerpts of Traffic Regulation
10
Time Ecology: Regulation of Policy Windows
• Battlefield strategy creates an opportunity to take advantage of the
enemy through trickery
• Public policy and policy windows
– Movement and realignment by breaking barriers to regulate the
flow of energy, resources and information that is external with
internal structures that creates an opportunity for changing a
policy (budget, elections, policy cycles) via a policy window—
here to move new scientific technology
• Natural, social, and now virtual regulation of heterochrony and time
budgets is the issue
• Timing for trickery?
11
Time Structures
Five Principal Temporalities and Associated Causalities
Time is:
Propagation in
Space is:
Past-Present
Future
Relationship
Is:
Causality is:
Sociotemporal
Local Chunking
Networks via
Local or
Extended Hubs
and Nodes
Pst-pres-pres
-pst-fut-pst-pst
pst...
(continuous
redefining)
Complex
Biotemporal
Bounded
Developmental/Gr
owth
Local
Reproductive
Networks
Unidirectional
Morphodynamics
Unidirectional
Interactive/
Natural
Selection
EcologicalTerrain
MultipleInteractive
Extended and
local (ex.
climate vs
whether)
Unidirectional
Complex
Physical Laws
Now-less flow
Inverse Square
Law and
diffusion
Unidirectional
Deterministic
No flow
Electronically
timed by
Computer
and Sweep
Generator
No Direction
Eootemporal and
Programmed
Eootemporal
Virtual
12
Time Structures
Temporal Orientation and Perspective Vary by Individual
and by Organization
Differing pasts:
Experiences
Expectations
Rate of movement
into the present
Rate of vanishing
into the past
Near or far
Density
Market and Industry
Government
Disaster Response
Warfare
Housing and Community
Environment/Nat. Resources
Health, Welfare & Safety
Differing Futures:
Expectations
Control
Depth
Differing Presents:
Narrow or wide
Rate of
movement
into the past
Rate of movement
into the future
Density
Rate of movement
into future
How the past is
brought forward
Density
13
Time Structures
Source: Victoria Koehler-Jones, 1999.
Three Local Times
•
Electronic battlefield is endlessly extended (macro & micro) with unlimited number avatars and
tokens in program/computer timed virtual space linked to the biotemporality
•
Space-time battle is highly local (streets, mountain gorges, small-boat-to-Ship) and is embedded
in five, layered temporalities that proceed at varying rates out of the past through the present into
the future
•
Public policy making is highly local in terms of exercising authority but extended over large
distances and many layers encompassing the intelligence industry and constituencies among
other factors
•
Five space-time dimensions are causally nested and uniquely placed in all of these time-ecologies
•
Each “placement” includes a temporal orientation and perspective toward the past, present, and
future
•
Wicked problems are local space-time problems embedded in different space-time time budget
streams that continuously form developing agents and landscapes according to chronocomplexity
dynamics
14
Time Structures
Preliminary Identification of a Government/Industry Cluster Clock-Time
Event Layers
(Nootemporal and Agent time are not ordered by layer)
(Colors are keyed to diagrams below)
Organization or Process
Scale: Length of
Cycle
Cyc
Level One (100+ yrs)
1. Government Administrative
Institution life-cycle
2. Large firm life-cycle
27-100 yrs (Kaufman (1976)
50-100+ yrs (Atlantic Monthly)
Jurisdiction
Domestic/global
Level Two (10-80 yrs)
3. National GDP expand/contract
59-80 yrs (Pagan (1997)
4. Kondratieff long wave cycles
40-65 yrs (De Greene, 1988).
5. Major Party realignment
40 yrs (Key, )
6. Congressional institutional
organizational life-cycle
20-40 yrs (Rieselback,1986)
7. Industry cluster formation/death 10-50 yrs (Saxinean, Rees and Stafford, 1986)
8. Regional Infrastructure
(roads, ports, etc.)
25-30 yrs
9. Policy cycles
12-27 yrs (Schlesinger, 1986; and Klingberg, 1983).
Jurisdiction
10. District reapportionment
10 yrs
Jurisdiction
Economy
Political boundaries
Institution
Network
Network
Varies by policy Area
Jurisdiction
Level Three (1-9 yrs)
11. Business cycle
12. Business network formation
life-cycle
13. Small and medium sized
firm life-cycle
14. Governors and Members
professional life-cycle
15. State regional economies
16. Business Cycle (expand/cont)
1-9 yrs (Temin, 1998)
virtual and various
Economy
Domestic/global
5 yrs to form; (Young, ?) 5 yrs to die (D=Aveni, 1989).
4-6 yrs
5-7 yrs
5-7 yrs (Kimberly, Robert Miles, 1980)
Domestic
Indiv./population
Economy
Level Four (6 months to 2 years)
Time
Structures
17. Time to develop and pass
legislation
18. Regulatory cycle
19. Technology cycle
(Moore=s law)
20. State Budget cycle
21. Legislative session life cycle
22. Electoral process cycle
23. Internet demand
(100% increase)
24. Employee training and
other internal firm
processes cycles
Legislature
1-2 yrs
1-2 yrs
1.5 yr
1 yr
1 yr
1 yr
1 yr (McQuillan, 1999)
Jurisdiction
Economy
All Jurisdict/prog.
Jurisdict/program
District
Telecommunicatins network
15
6 mon-1 yr (Sastry, 1997)
Firm
27. Product innovation
S curve cycles
6 mon. per season (Modis, 1998). Firm
Level Five (Hours to 6 months)
28. Programatic interventions
(funds and services)
29. Demand for data bites and
internet core
(100% increase)
30. Media content cycles
monthly
Jurisdiction
2 months (McQuillan, 1999)
(story coverage time)
Economy
Circulation
Level Six (Minutes to seconds) (Lemke, 2000)
31. Interpersonal dialogue
32. Utterance (word or phrase)
33. Vocal sound
seconds/minustes
second (1-10)
10^-1 Sec.
Person
Person
Level Seven (Less than a second) (Lemke, 2000)
34. Neuronal patterns
10^-2 Sec.
35. Neural firings (nural processes) 10^-3 Sec.
36. Membrane process (Ligand binding)
10^-4 Sec.
37. Chemical synthesis (Neurotransmitters) 10^-5 Sec.
Brain
Level Eight (Virtual-electronic-biological perception)
38. Computer clock time and flat or other screen sweep generation consistent with visual processing
Speed.
Source: Gus Koehler, “A Framework for Visualizing the Chronocomplexity of Politically
Regulated Time-Ecologies,” Prepared for Presentation at International Society for the Study of
Time, 2001 Conference, Gorgonza, Italy, July 8-22, 2001.
Time
Structures
This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant No.
0083934. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those
of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Coinvestigating
institutions each with complementary research to this effort include, of which this document is Part I:
Arizona State University, University of Southern California, Institute for Law and Systems Research, and
Time Structures.
16
Sociotemporal Extension in Space
•
Sociotemporal extension is interaction beyond one’s immediate presence
via voice, physical messages, digital or analogues messages, virtual
messages, refrigerator magnets
•
Projection of authority over space and time
•
Stretching of socio-political systems across time
•
Movement to one point like Los Angeles from Santa Barbara can take 500
minutes or 100 minutes by car depending on the year
•
Simultaneity of convergence at different space times by class based on
mode of transportation (high cost of political participation for the poor or
different organizations)
•
Any local patch is deformed by sociotemporal extensions (prune world)
17
Time Structures
Elements of Complexity Contribute to Wicked
Problems
• “Structural” complexity: Number of different parts in a time-ecology and
their interactions
• “Hierarchical” complexity: Number of levels in a hierarchy that makes up
the time ecology
• “Functional” complexity:
– Number of different functions an organism or organization can
perform, or
– Computational capacity of an organism, organization or device
• Chronocomplexity: number of heterochronic interactions via tubes within
the system including the developmental status of an agent/organization, and
between the system and its natural environment
Chris Adami, Evolution of Biocomplexity
Time Structures
19
Stretching social
time-ecologies
across
space-time
Hierarchical
Complexity
Structural Complexity
Functional
Complexity
Chronocomplexity
20
Time Structures
Measures of complexity
“[…] no broad definition has been offered that is both
operational, in the sense that it indicates
unambiguously how to measure complexity in real
systems, and universal, in the sense that it can be
applied to all systems.”
D.W. McShea (1996)
Chris Adami, Evolution of Biocomplexity
21
Time Structures
A Closer Look at Three Time Ecologies: 1. Battlefield
2. Battle Field Virtual
3. Government-Private Sector
Time Structures
22
Policy Windows Move
Intelligence Technology Complex: Timing is weeks, months, and years.
Policy Window
Battlefield: Time is context-enemy tactics driven from seconds to weeks,
months and years
Tactics for Both: Dividing
Space-Time with Trickery
Time Structures
23
Future Approach A
Past Fading A
US Soldier: Heterochrony
of Nested
Temporalities
Characteristic
Entrainment
Local Landscape
(Spatial-Temporal)
Future Approach B
Moslem Enemy: Heterochrony
of Nested
Temporalities
Uneven Time Chunks
Past fading B
Future Approach B
Battlefield: Agent, Pipes, and Landscapes
As Complementary fields in Space
Time as seen from the Nootemporal
Perspective
Time Structures
24
Command Operations & High-Tech Business’ Temporal Layers
Growth
Planning
Management
Networking capacity
Human
Resources
Information
Technology
Prod.Dev.
Temporal-Signature
Manufacturing
Past
Research
A
Start-up
Capital
B
Foresight Horizon
Marketing
C
Early-stage
Future
D
Rapid Growth
E
Mature
Declining
Developmental Stages
.1
2
3
3
5
6
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.
Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X)
Time Structures
25
A = Pentagon
P
Exports
P
Diagram of an PentagonIndustry-Battle TimeEcology
F
F
P
TS
F
TS
B = Equipment, Other Pentagon Foresight
TS
Horizon months to years
P
C = Field
Operations
F
P
TS
P
F
F
P
TS
P
TS
TS
F
TS
Internet
P
F
P
F
P
F
P
TS
F
P
TS
TS
P
B
P
P
F
F
P
F
TS
F
P
TS
TS
F
TS
F
TS
TS
P
F
TS
.1
2
3
3
5
6
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.
F
TS
F
TS
F
Organization’s Past-Present-Future Orientation
TS + Temporal Signature
P
TS
P
P
A
F
TS
Telephone
P
F
P
P
F
TS
P
C
F
F
Battle Field Foresight
Horizon minutes
to months
TS
TS
Organizational or Process Cycle
26
Time Structures
Opening of Policy or Opportunity Windows
• Policy or opportunity windows may open at a far higher frequency
than can be easily perceived or analyzed anywhere on the
battlefield or at multiple points in the intelligence technology
complex time-ecology
• Very hard to identify policy window opportunities for disrupting
boundaries by trickery
• The following policy window examples are drawn from California
state politics
27
Time Structures
Wickedness Elements Regulating
Policy Windows
•
Appropriations process: yearly cycle and variations over time
•
Defense acquisition process: RFP proposal time, awarding, monitoring, reports and related paper
and procedural temporalities
•
Legal policy barriers: regulatory definitions and redefinitions
•
Legislative barriers: policy cycles, party cycles, legislative process
•
Intelligence barriers: regulatory and policy barriers varying across levels and agencies
•
Organizational culture: private sector, military, legislative, soldier, enemy, virtual, intelligence, etc
•
Technology Transfer: policy definitions, development and process cycles
•
Deployment barriers: manufacturing cycle, training of users, logistics and rates of movement, etc
•
Political pressure to increase speed of tech development and transfer
•
Organizational barriers: stove-piping, iron-law of oligarchy, funding battles and organizational
battles, organizational life-time
28
Time Structures
Policy Entrepreneurs
• A policy entrepreneur advocates for proposals or for ideas by
changing the direction and flow of politics in multiple, nested political
and administrative arenas
• They join solutions to problems through policy windows when
administrations change or other large scale events occur providing
favorable political circumstances
• They increase their chances of success by knowing how to open or
close policy windows in a time-ecology
• They are knowledgeable about policy making, legislative and
administrative advocacy, procedures, and implementation
• Their work is enhanced by policy networks and by working with
political groups
29
Time Structures
Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes Trickery
• A political time-ecology is in a state of
punctuated equilibrium with different parts
changing at varying rates
• A time-ecology may directly, or indirectly,
influence the choice of strategy used to seek a
preferred policy change
30
Time Structures
Opening a Policy Window
Issue A: low priority
Heterochronic inputs:
•campaign funds
•constituency support
•term limits
•Party control
Media attention?
Issue Window
Open?
Long term Legislative Organizational
cycle in phase or out of phase?
Historical Policy
Cycle in phase?
Current Historical
Context Supportive?
Org. Or Indiv.
Policy Entrepreneur
Available?
Legislative
Process
Time Structures
Member’s Career Cycle
in phase with issue and associated
with strength of support?
.1
2
3
4
5
6
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.
Organizational or Process Cycle
31
Legislative Session Determinants
Of Opening A Policy Window
Heterochronic inputs:
- Importance to constituency?
- Interest group(s) pressure?
- Media publicity?
- Gov. agency pressure?
- Gov. provider pressure?
- NGO(s) pressure?
- Federal, state, local gov.
pressure?
- Campaign resource?
- Other historical issues or
votes?
Legislative
Process
(Issue on
Legislative
Agenda)
Session Conditions:
-Staff and member workload re: # bills,
and committee assignments
- Probability of bill movement given introducing
member’s party Vs. house controlling party
- Probability of movement given leadership and
Governor priorities and party
- Cost: money in bill? Is bill distributive, redistributive
or regulatory? Relative cost? Competing budget
priorities?
- Perception surrounding bill: fear, fame, crises or not?
- Legislative/executive relations?
- Procedural sequences and likelihood of survival
(double referral)?
- Policy cycle place (agenda-setting, formulation,
adoption, implementation, evaluation) relative to
bill and budget deadlines?
End
Enrolled
.1
2
3
4
5
6
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.
Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X)
Administration
Time Structures
32
New Statute
Opening an Administrative Approval and
Implementation Policy Window
End
Admin.
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue pencil
probability?
End
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
.1
2
3
4
5
6
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.
33
Time Structures
A Legislation-Admin
Business Time-Ecology
I. Advocacy
Issue A: low priority
Draft4/28/2001
Session Cycle
Page 1
Heterochronic inputs:
•campaign funds
•constituency support
•term limits
•Party control
• see notes
Media attention?
C
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Long term Legislative Organizational
cycle in phase or out of phase?
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Blue pencil
probability?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Issue Window
Open?
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Blue pencil
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
Historical Policy
Cycle in phase?
Regional
Economy
Current Historical
Context Supportive?
Member’s Career Cycle
in phase with issue and associated
with strength of support?
Org. Or Indiv.
Policy Entrepreneur
Available?
Legislative/
Administrative
Processes
B
A
C
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Se c.-Min.
Heterochronic inputs:
- Importance to constituency?
- Interest group(s) presure?
- Media publicity?
- Gov. agency pressure?
- Gov. provider pressure?
- NGO(s) pressure?
- Federal, state, local gov.
pressure?
- Campaign resource?
- Other historical issues or
votes?
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Session Conditions:
-Staff and member workload re: # bills,
and committee assignments
- Probability of bill movement given introducing
member’s party Vs. house controlling party
- Probability of movement given leadership and
Governor priorities and party
- Cost: money in bill? Is bill distributive,
redistributive
or regulatory? Relative cost? Competing budget
priorities?
- Perception surrounding bill: fear, fame, crises or
not?
- Legislative/executive relations?
- Procedural sequences and likelihood of survival
(double referral)?
- Policy cycle place (agenda-setting, formulation,
adoption, implementation, evaluation) relative to
bill and budget deadlines?
Blue pencil
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
t
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
t
A
Prime
t
Enrolled
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.
C
C
t
t
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
t
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
t
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Blue pencil
probability?
C
B High
Tech.
Suppliers
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
Provision of Services
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
Blue pencil
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Economic Development
Programs for Business
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
t
t
C Low Tech.
Suppliers
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C
.1 2 3 4 5 6
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Sec.-Min.
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
Blue pencil
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X)
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Time Structures
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Blue pencil
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Blue pencil
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
Budget and other
Gov.. legislation
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Blue pencil
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bill chaptered?
Not implemented
or incompletely implemented
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Regulatory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Services
Time technologies used to implement
(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
Administrative
heterochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
requests and cycles
- Policy cycle of priorities and
direction
- Accountability/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
34
Chronocomplexity of Strategic Decision Making is a
Wicked Problem
•
Our focus is not on static institutional structures and/or how innovation is
blocked
•
The focus here is on hierarchic chronocomplex relationships and emergent
policy windows that if aligned, could produce actionable intelligence
consistent with battlefield timing and trickery (boundary penetrating and
changing) requirements
•
What heterochronic relationships open policy windows that produce
actionable intelligence and close those of the enemy? What is the role of
the policy entrepreneur at aligning these time ecologies?
•
Can intelligence technology Complex factors be manipulated to meet battle
field timing and trickery requirements by a policy entrepreneur?
•
How does chronocomplexity make these relationships and the role of the
policy entrepreneur more vulnerable to disruptive timing and trickery?
35
Time Structures
36
Strategies to Break Innovation and
Technology Transfer Barriers
Producing Actionable Intelligence
37
Time Structures
Simulations of Chronocomplex Systems
"You never change things by fighting the
existing reality. To change something,
build a new model that makes the
existing model obsolete."
-- Buckminster Fuller
38
Time Structures
Policy Working Group: Next Steps?
• Flow chart the research, prototyping, approval,
procurement, and introduction into the field of
appropriate weapon as a time-ecology
• Flow chart process of identifying soldier’s expressed
needs and how they are filled; what is delivered to
them;and what is not used as a time-ecology
• Use dialogue mapping with key players at apparent
barriers using both flow charts to identify key policy
issues and their timing
• Collect available information and use survey
research to determine soldiers needs and what they
are likely to use
39
• Conduct two case studies: successful rapid
creation and deployment of a product useful
to soldiers and of one that wasn’t
• Policy Group dialogue maps key wicked
factors in their time-ecology context,
possibly with key players
• Draft strategy and options to address issues:
– Creation of policy entrepreneurs
– Policy options to remove specific barriers and
causes of delays including those that may require
legislation
40
Battlefield Time-Ecology Research Issues (1)
• What to look for: Diagram the time-ecology as a complex system
and from the perspective of a policy-entrepreneur who can navigate
it
• Use Dialogue and Issue Mapping by policy entrepreneurs and
actors from the involved sectors to identify precursors of a wicked
problem and of a policy window opening or closing
• Wicked problem detection could be carried out autonomous agent
simulations using such issue and dialogue maps
• One way to look: identify and evaluate the rhythms of policy
windows, possible paths to them, their disruption, and reasons for
their opening or closing linked within their time-ecology
41
Time Structures
Battlefield Time-Ecology Research Issues (2)
•
Other ways: Determine the extent to which mobility (the consumption of
distance)—be it physical or digital—is intrinsic to certain types of warfare or
policy making as human space-time extensibility
•
Identify and label varying temporal patterns caused by different local timeecology clocks that create policy windows including their sync frequencies,
at multiple levels: neuronal, perceptual, interpretative, translations from
virtual to real to virtual; social-interactive, group interactive; machinehuman; enemy-soldier, etc; military space-air-machine-individual, etc)
•
Derive and interpret patterns and process of policy making or battlefield
local space-time economies and tactics, trickery, etc, including introduction
of new intelligence technology relative to soldier operational effectiveness
and survival
•
How are new intelligence technologies socially constructed and by whom
and then embedded in a time-ecology’s distribution of authority, power, and
opportunity relative to policy windows
42
Time Structures