Public Opinion Political Science I Copyright and Terms of Service Copyright © Texas Education Agency, 2011. 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Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 3 Public Opinion • The opinion or attitude of a significant group of people about a matter concerning public affairs • “Public affairs include politics, public issues, and the making of public policies—those events and issues that concern the people at large” (McClenaghan, 2009) • Examples: political parties and candidates, taxes, unemployment, foreign policy, etc. Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 4 Public Opinion (continued) • The “public” refers to a significant group of people that share a view of a particular issue that effects the people as a whole; there are many different publics and many different public opinions • Some general characteristics of public opinions • • • • • They are difficult to measure They are learned They change They influence government decisions They can overlap or conflict Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 5 Public Opinion (continued) • How opinions differ • Opinion saliency – some people care more about certain issues • Opinion stability – opinions on some issues are relatively steady, but can be more volatile on others • Opinion-policy congruence – public opinion and public policy are in sync for some issues and out of sync for others Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 6 How is public opinion influenced? Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 7 Influences on Public Opinion • • • • • • Political socialization Political efficacy Mass media Peer groups Opinion leaders Historic events Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 8 How is public opinion measured? Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 9 Public Opinion Polls • Public opinion polls – “devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions” (McClenaghan, 2009) • Straw votes • Involve asking the same question to a large group of people • Are highly unreliable • Do not ensure a reasonable cross-section of the entire population Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 10 Public Opinion Polls (continued) • Scientific polling • Began in the mid-1930s • Has become highly sophisticated • Is performed by commercial polling organizations, of which two of the best known are • Gallup Organization (the Gallup Poll) • Pew Research Center for People and the Press Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 11 Public Opinion Polls (continued) • Scientific polling (continued) • A number of the leading national polls are joint efforts of major news-gathering and professional polling organizations • They report public attitudes on current issues (i.e. support of the President or Congress) • Is extremely complex but can be described in five basic steps Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 12 Basic Steps of Scientific Polling • Define the universe to be surveyed • Universe – entire population that the poll aims to measure • Example: every high school student in Texas • Construct a sample • Most pollsters draw random samples • Sample – a representative portion of the total universe • Random sample – composed of randomly selected people so that all of the members have an equal chance of being interviewed • Most major national polls use samples with approximately 1,500 people to represent the nation’s adult population (over 200 million people) • The mathematical law of probability makes a sample an accurate representation as long as the sample selected is • A sufficient size and • Properly selected at random from the entire universe Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 13 Basic Steps of Scientific Polling (continued) • Prepare valid questions • The wording of questions is critical to the reliability of the poll • Responsible pollsters avoid • Questions that are emotionally “loaded” • Questions that lead the participants to the desired answer • Terms that are difficult to understand Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 14 Basic Steps of Scientific Polling (continued) • Select and control how the poll is taken • A pollster’s method of communication can affect the poll’s accuracy • Face-to-face • Telephone calls • Is the most common method • Utilizes random-digit dialing • Mail • An interviewer’s tone of voice and/or word emphasis can affect the participants’ responses and a poll’s validity • Polling organizations try to hire and train their interviewing staff very carefully Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 15 Basic Steps of Scientific Polling (continued) • Analyze and report the findings to the public • Polls measure people’s attitudes • Scientific polling organizations • Collect huge amounts of raw data • Use technologies to • Calculate and interpret their data • Draw conclusions • Publish findings Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 16 Evaluating Polls • Weaknesses • Pollsters acknowledge their difficulties measuring • Intensity – the strength of the feeling with which an opinion is held • Stability (or fluidity) – the relative permanence of an opinion • Relevance (or pertinence) – how important a particular opinion is to the person who holds it • Critics say that pollsters shape the opinions they are supposed to measure Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 17 Evaluating Polls (continued) • Strengths • Scientific polls are the most useful tools for measuring public opinion • They are not precise, but they are reliable • They help specify questions and stimulate discussion of them Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 18 Other Polling Methods • Other methods are unreliable but may be used to find key indicators • Elections • Are rarely an accurate measure of public opinion • Are occasionally useful indicators of public opinion • Personal Contacts • Are a resource that public figures use to try and gauge public opinion • Some public officials can do this successfully, but many are biased and only see what they want to see Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 19 Other Polling Methods (continued) • Interest Groups • Are private organizations that work to shape public policy to their objectives (i.e. pressure groups or special interest groups) • Provide a primary method to make a public opinion heard • Apply pressure through • • • • • • Lobbyists Letters Telephone calls Emails Political campaigns Other methods Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 20 How does public opinion affect public policy? Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 21 Effects on Public Policy • Public opinion has a powerful role in US politics • Framers of the Constitution wanted to create a representative democracy that would • Give the people an active voice in government (popular rule) • Insulate the government from the whims of an illinformed public Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 22 Effects on Public Policy (continued) • The following aspects of our constitutional government protect the minority interests from the majority views and actions • Separation of powers • Checks and balances • Civil rights and liberties Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 23 Effects on Public Policy (continued) • Public opinion is one influence on public policy, along with • • • • • Interest groups Political parties Mass media Other institutions of government Ideas of activists and public officials Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 24 Resources • McClenaghan, W. A. (2009). Magruder's American Government, Pearson. • Glencoe McGraw-Hill (2009), United States Government: Democracy in Action, Glencoe McGraw-Hill. • Wilson, J. Q., Dilulio Jr., J. J., and Bose, M. (2011). American Government Institutions and Policies, Wadsworth Cengage Learning. Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. 25