Public Opinion
Public Opinion Questions

Should political leaders pay attention to public opinion polls when making
decisions for the country?

Do you believe that your representative in Congress cares about your
personal opinion on important issues?

Is our government really legitimate when only about half the people vote in
local, state and national elections?

Is it appropriate for religious leaders to try to influence how people should
vote?
What is an opinion?

An opinion is any belief, conviction or judgment.
What is a belief?

A belief is a state of believing; a conviction or acceptance that certain things
are true or real.

A belief can also be an opinion, expectation or judgment.
What is a judgment?

A judgment is the ability to judge, makes a decision, or forms an opinion
objectively, authoritatively, and wisely.

It is also an assertion of something believed.
What is a conviction?

A conviction is the state of being convinced.
What is Public Opinion?

Public opinion may be defined as the attitudes of individuals regarding their
political leaders and institutions as well as political and social issues.
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Political Leaders
President George Bush
Senator Edward Kennedy
Senator John Kerry
United States Representative Stephen Lynch
Governor Deval Patrick
Thomas Menino
Institutions
The Presidency
The Congress
The Judiciary
Corporations
Religious Institutions
The Media
The Legal Profession
The Medical Institutions
Issues
The Economy
Iraq
Campaign Reform
Gay Marriages
Abortion
Death Penalty
Gun Control
Casino Gambling
Public Opinion is the “Voice of the People.”
In order for democracy to succeed, a state must encourage public discourse. In
other words, public leaders must listen to public opinion.
All communities divide themselves into the few and the many.
The “few” represents the rich and well born and the “many” represents the people.
Even though, public officials take the pulse of the people on important issues, they
do not always follow public opinion.
In social sciences, such as economics, analysis based on opinions is referred to as
normative analysis (what ought to be), as opposed to positive analysis, which is
based on fact (what is).
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Each day, we are aware of government actions that have a direct effect on our lives.
Based on these decisions, do we feel that our government is a government of the
people, by the people, and for the people? Are we happy with these decisions? Do
we feel that we have a voice in these decisions?
The American public is divided over issues such as war and peace, civil liberties,
corporate behavior, jobs and welfare, abortion, budget priorities, the environment,
and taxes.
In good times, public debate can be positive and in bad times, we feel that our
government is tearing our state apart.
A successful democratic state requires an informed and participating public.
Political Socialization:
Opinions are developed through a series of social influences, such as, family,
education, religion, peer groups, generational events as well as the media.
Social Influences:

Family – adopt attitudes, morals, and beliefs of the family

Education – civic courses, student government, degree of education

Religion – spiritual development, morals

Peer Groups – sharing the views of friends and associates
Examples: unions, business leaders, and clubs

Generational Events – Great Depression, Vietnam, Watergate, 911, Iraq War

The Media – Television, Internet, Newspapers
Personal Characteristics:
Personal characteristics have even a more direct influence on public opinion.

Race: Caucasians, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans

Religion: Christian, Judaism, Islam

Region: Place of Residence: North v. South, Urban v. Suburbia

Gender: Female v. Male
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
Political Party Affiliation: Democrat v. Republican

Generation: Youth v. Senior Citizens
Measuring Public Opinion:
Public Opinion is tested through:


Elections
Polls
Public opinion serves as both a motive power of our democratic society and as a
barometer by which public officials gauge their actions.
A favorable opinion is one of the most sought after rewards on the American scene.
Every individual wants to be liked.
Public officials sometimes do not do what people want.
Examples: Congressional pay increases, the War in Iraq
Qualities of Public Opinion:

Intensity: measures the strength of a conviction about a given issue.
Intensity can help the minority win on an issue over a less concerned
majority.
Examples: Abortions, Regulation of guns

Fluid: public opinion can change very quickly
Examples: Death penalty, Flag Burning

Stability: some individuals maintain their opinions for a very long time.
Examples: Religious Beliefs, Political Affiliations

Latent: refers to potential opinions which can become activated through
events or the communications of more information, especially by the media.
Examples: The AIDS Epidemic

Relevance: relevant public opinion deals with how important or
unimportant an issue may be to individuals.
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Examples: Education, Social Security, Health Care
Public Opinion Polls:
Public Opinion polls are conducted by marketing experts or the media.
Marketing Experts: Gallup, Harris
Media: CBS, CNN, NBC, ABC
Newsweek, Time, U.S. News & World Report
Boston Globe, Boston Herald, Quincy Patriot Ledger
Straw Polls: Unreliable public opinion surveys based on unscientific samples:
Examples: “viewer poll” (call-in-polls)
Scientific Polling: Techniques for accurately and reliably estimating the opinions of
a large group by making carefully worded questions of a
representative sample of individuals.
Sample: A subset of the population under study; if selected correctly it represents
the population from which it was drawn with reliable and measurable
accuracy.
The sample must mirror the voting population. A sample of individuals
polled must be a microcosm of the much larger population and that
interviewing must be continued up to election day since opinions can be
very fluid.
A poll only represents a “snapshot of opinion” at a particular time.
Sampling Error: A percentage by which the results of a poll may be expected to
vary by three to five percent in either direction.
Modern Polling Techniques
Proper Polling Procedures:

Accurate polling methods must:
1. constructive a representative sample.
2. use valid or reliable questions.
3. carefully communicate with respondents.
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Constructing a Representative Sample:
A sample must be a representative in that every major characteristic of the
population from which the sample has been drqen in approximately the same
frequency as in the much larger population.
Norm: Population Sample: 1200 – 1500
Example: Hispanic Population: 4%
The sample size must be large enough to reflect the major social, economic, and
political characteristics of the American electorate.
The Sample:
A representative sample is chosen through the process of random sampling, which is
basically a lottery system where by every individual in the population and each
geographical region has an equal mathematical chance of being included in the
sample.
The Use of Valid Questions:
The manner in which questions are phrased is quite important to a poll’s final
results.
Communications with Respondents:
Individuals conducting polls through face-to-face interviews or over the phone must
avoid contaminating truthful responses through their voice, preexisting attitudes
toward the question being asked, or unintentional coaching of interviewees.
To avoid these problems, organizations exercise great coaching of interviewees,
Probability Sample: The selections procedure in which each member of the target
population has a known or an equal chance of being selected.
Simple Random Sample: a probability sample in which each person in the
population under study has an equal chance of being
selected.
Stratified Sample: a probability sample in which the population under study is
divided into categories (strata) that are thought to be important
in influencing opinions. At this point, a random sample is
drawn from within the stratum.
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Closed-ended Question: asking a question and providing a list of potential
responses from which to choose.
Open-ended Question: a broad question that requires the respondents to articulate
a response.
Filter Question: a preliminary question used to determine if potential survey
respondents are sufficiently knowledgeable about the topic under
study.
Personal Interview: Administrations of a survey questionnaire verbally, face to
face.
Telephone Survey: administration of a survey questionnaire over the telephone.
Mail Survey: a public opinion survey conducted by mail. Response rates tend to be
low, making the reliability of the results questionable.
Confidence Level: the probability that the results found in the sample represent the
true opinion of the entire public under study. The traditional
standard confidence is 95 percent.
Push Polls: a form of telemarketing disguised as a poll in which negative
information (often false) is provided with the goal of influencing public
opinion.
Exit Polls: Surveys of voters leaving polling places used by news media to guage
how candidates are doing on Election Day.
Problems with Polls:
The Bandwagon Effect: Encourages voters to jump on the bandwagon of a
candidate in the lead. Voters want to be with a winner.
Exit Polls: These polls are used by the major networks to predict elections. They
tend to keep voters either from voting or voting for the projected
winner.
(March 08)
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