Decision Making by Individuals and Groups Chapter 10 Organizational Behavior Nelson & Quick, 6th edition Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved The Decision-Making Process Programmed Decision - a simple, routine matter for which a manager has an established decision rule Nonprogrammed Decision - a new, complex decision that requires a creative solution Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved The DecisionMaking Process Recognize the problem and the need for a decision Identify the objective of the decision Gather and evaluate data and diagnose the situation List and evaluate alternatives Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved The DecisionMaking Process Select the best course of action Implement the decision Gather feedback Follow up Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Models of Decision-Making Effective Decision - a timely decision that meets a desired objective and is acceptable to those individuals affected by it Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Rational Model Rationality - a logical, step-by-step approach to decision making, with a thorough analysis of alternatives and their consequences 1. The outcome will be completely rational 2. The decision maker uses a consistent system of preferences to choose the best alternative 3. The decision maker is aware of all alternatives 4. The decision maker can calculate the probability of success for each alternative Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Bounded Rationality Model Bounded Rationality - a theory that suggests that there are limits upon how rational a decision maker can actually be Satisfice – to select the first alternative that is “good enough,” because the costs in time and effort are too great to optimize Managers suggest the first satisfactory alternative Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Bounded Rationality Model Managers recognize that their conception of the world is simple Managers are comfortable making decisions without determining all the alternatives Heuristics – shortcuts in decision making that save mental activity Managers make decisions by rules of thumb or heuristics Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Solutions Garbage Can Model Problems Choice opportunities Participants Garbage Can Model a theory that contends that decisions in organizations are random and unsystematic SOURCE: From M.D. Cohen, J.G. March, and J.P. Olsen in Administrative Science Quarterly 17 (March 1972) 1-25. Reprinted by permission of the Administrative Science Quarterly Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Risk and the Manager Risk Aversion - the tendency to choose options that entail fewer risks and less uncertainty Risk takers – Accept greater potential for loss – Tolerate greater uncertainty – More likely to make risky decisions – Often lead the group discussions Evidence: Successful Managers Take Risks Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Escalation of Commitment Escalation of Commitment - The tendency to continue to commit resources to a failing course of action Why it occurs – humans dislike inconsistency – optimism – control – sunk costs How to deal with it – split responsibility for decisions – provide individuals with a graceful exit – have groups make the initial decision Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Cognitive Style Cognitive Style - an individual’s preference for gathering information and evaluating alternatives Individual’s Perceiving Style + Individual’s Sensing Style = Cognitive Style Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Cognitive Style Jungian theory offers a way of understanding and appreciating differences among individuals. Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Jung’s 4 Cognitive Styles Style ST Sensing/thinking SF Sensing/feeling NT Intuiting/thinking NF Intuiting/feeling Ideal Organization Facts Impersonal analysis Facts and organizational relationships Broad issues Impersonal and ideal Serve humankind General values Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Z Problem-Solving Model Look at the facts and details Can it be analyzed objectively? Sensing Thinking SOURCE: Excerpted from Type Talk at Work by Otto Kroeger and Janet M. Thuesen, 1992, Delacorte Press. Reprinted by permission Otto Kroeger Associates. Intuition Feeling What alternatives do the facts suggest? What impact will it have on those involved? Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Two Brains, Two Cognitive Styles Left Hemisphere Right Hemisphere Verbal Sequential, temporal, digital Logical, analytic Rational Western thought Nonverbal, visuospatial Simultaneous, spatial, analogical Gestalt, synthetic Intuitive Eastern thought Ideal = “brain-lateralized” making use of either or both sides, depending on situation SOURCE: Created based on ideas from Left Brain, Right Brain by Springer and Deutsch, p.272. © 1993 by Sally Springer and Georg Deutsch. (New York: W.H. Freeman and Company, 1993). Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Influences on Decision-Making Intuition - fast, Creativity - a process positive force in decision making utilized at a level below consciousness and involves learned patterns of information influenced by individual and organizational factors that results in the production of novel and useful ideas, products, or both Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Four Stages of the Creative Process Preparation experience/ opportunity to build knowledge base Incubation reflective thought, often unconscious Illumination insight into solving a problem Verification thinking, sharing, testing the decision Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Influences on Creativity Individual examples – Cognitive Processes • Divergent thinking • Associational abilities • Unconscious processes – Personality Factors • • • • Intellectual, artistic values Breadth of interests High energy Self-confidence Organizational examples – Autonomous feelings – Diverse team skills – Quality, supportive relationships with supervisors – Flexible organization structure – Participative decision making Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Four Types of Creativity Creativity Type Presented or Discovered You respond to Responsive problems You respond to Contributory problems You discover Expected problems You discover Proactive problems Internal or External Trigger Because it is expected of you Because you want to be creative Because it is expected of you Because you want to be creative Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Participation in Decision Making Participative Decision Making Individuals who are affected by decisions influence the making of those decisions Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Foundations for Participation and Empowerment • Organizational Foundations – Participative, supportive organizational culture – Team-oriented work design • Individual Prerequisites – Capability to become psychologically involved in participative activities – Motivation to act autonomously – Capacity to see the relevance of participation for one’s own well-being Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Group Decision-Making • Role of synergy - a positive force that occurs in groups when group members stimulate new solutions to problems through the process of mutual influence and encouragement in the group • Role of social decision schemes - simple rules used to determine final group decisions Two-thirds Majority Majority Wins Truth Wins First-shift Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Group Decision Making Advantages Disadvantages 1. More knowledge through pooling of group member resources 2. Increased acceptance and commitment to decisions (had a voice) 3. Greater understanding due to involvement in decision stages 1. Pressure in groups to conform 2. Domination by one forceful member or dominant clique 3. Amount of time required, because group is slower than individual to make a decision Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Group Phenomenon Groupthink - a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment resulting from in-group pressures Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Conditions Favoring Groupthink • High cohesiveness • Group homogeneity • Decision with high consequences • Time constraints Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Symptoms of Groupthink • • • • • • • • Illusions of invulnerability Illusions of group morality Illusions of unanimity Rationalization Stereotyping the enemy Self-censorship Peer pressure Mindguards SOURCE: Irving L Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Second Edition. Copyright © 1982 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Used with permission. Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Preventing Groupthink • Ask each group member to act as critical evaluator • Have the leader avoid stating his opinion prior to the group decision • Create several groups to work simultaneously • Appoint a devil’s advocate • Evaluate the competition carefully • After consensus, encourage rethinking the position SOURCE: Irving L Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Second Edition. Copyright © 1982 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Used with permission. Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Group Polarization Group Polarization - the tendency for group discussion to produce shifts toward more extreme attitudes among members Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Group Decision Making Techniques Brainstorming Self-Managed Teams Quality Circles and Quality Teams Group Decision G Techniques Nominal Group Technique (NGT) Delphi Technique Dialectical Inquiry Devil’s Advocacy Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Diversity and Culture in Decision Making • Racially dissimilar groups – More open information sharing – Dissenting perspectives encouraged – Better decision making • Functionally dissimilar groups – Engage in greater debate – Better financial performance Photos courtesy of Clips Online ©2008 Microsoft Corporation $ $ $ Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Technological Aids to Decision-Making Expert Systems - a programmed decision tool set up using decision rules Decision Support Systems - computer and communication systems that process incoming data and synthesize pertinent information Group Decision Support Systems - systems that use computer software and communication facilities to support group decision-making processes (face-to-face meetings or dispersed) Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Decision Making in the Virtual Workplace Desktop video conferencing systems Tools for Virtual Teams Group decision support systems Internet/Intranet systems Agent-based modeling Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Ethics Check Is it legal? – Does it violate law – Does it violate company policy Is it balanced? – Is it fair to all – Does it promote win-win relationships How will it make me feel about myself? Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved Chapter 10: Reflect & Discuss Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas Video Clip What to Watch for and Ask Yourself • What are the Grinch’s decision alternatives or options? • What decision criteria does the Grinch use to choose from the alternatives? • Describe the steps in the Grinch’s decisionmaking process. Copyright ©2009 South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning All rights reserved