Past Trends and Future Projections
Investigation by Edward Sun
Nepean High School

• Global warming is the increase in the
Earth’s average surface temperature.
• Global warming is caused by the
Greenhouse Effect and elevated emissions of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide.
• Naturally occurring greenhouse gases help regulate the Earth's climate by trapping heat in the atmosphere and reflecting it back to the surface. However, human activities have amplified this natural process.

• In the past century, the mean surface temperature on Earth has increased approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius.
• Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmest years since 1850.
• If global warming is indeed caused by human activities, as suggested by many studies, then all of us are responsible to do something about it.

• Global warming is becoming one of the central issues of the world
• More and more people are becoming aware of the undesirable effects global warming could have on the Earth’s climate, due to much propaganda.
• Global temperatures have been rising and are projected to rise further in the future.

• What factors have been causing the Earth’s climate to change, and how will it change in the future?
• In an endeavour to answer the above question, I decided to investigate on the topic of global warming.
• As there are two parts to this question, data of past trends will be analyzed, and predictions for the future will be made based on these past trends.

•
In the future, the climate of the Earth will likely be warmer, the sea levels will likely rise, and weather patterns and precipitation will be affected. Human activities such as burning fossil fuels are responsible for past alterations of the Earth’s climate.
• Conducting research, analyzing secondary data, and studying relationships will help determine the precision of these hypotheses.

The amount of precipitation?
The emission of
CO
2
?
The amount of fossil fuel burnt?
What is the relationship between global warming and:
The number of motorized vehicles?
Ocean levels?

• As global warming is primarily caused by an overabundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, we will first consider some factors that could cause a rise in the atmospheric concentrations of gases such as carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.
• What are some things that produce these gases?

• The first to come to mind are cars that line the roads of cities, which are increasing in number every year.
• Burning gasoline releases carbon dioxide.
• As the combustion of gasoline is an absolute necessity for cars to run, the number of cars escalating through the years must surely mean that the amount of greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere has been increasing as well.

• Below is graph of the total number of registered vehicles in Canada from year 1990 to 1995:
Total Number of Motorized Vehicles in Canada, 1990-1995
16600000
16400000
16200000
16000000
15800000
15600000
15400000
15200000
1989 1990 y = 239657x - 5E+08
R 2 = 0.9431
1991 1992
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996
The total number of registered vehicles in Canada had been increasing at a steady rate in the six years.

• Canada’s economy was gradually growing, and the number of cars on the roads had been on the rise at an average rate of 1.33% each year.
• Now let us examine what effects this had had on the emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada.
Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-1995
510
500
490
480
470
460
450
1989 1990 y = 7.7114x - 14893
R 2 = 0.7928
1991 1992
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996

• There was an increase in Canada’s emissions of greenhouse gases at the same time as the number of vehicles was mounting.
Total Number of Vehicles vs. GHG Emissions in Canada
510
500
490
480 y = 3E-05x + 6.32
R 2 = 0.696
470
460
450
15200000 15400000 15600000 15800000 16000000 16200000 16400000 16600000
Number of Vehicles

When graphed onto the same axes, the strong, positive correlation
=0.83427
suggests that the increase in the number of vehicles may be causing a rise in the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.
When we study the same relationship for the United
States, we find similar, positive correlations.

Total Number of Vehicles in the US, 1991-2000
230,000,000
225,000,000
220,000,000
215,000,000 y = 4E+06x - 7E+09
R 2 = 0.9912
210,000,000
Total Number of Vehicles vs. GHG Emissions in the US
205,000,000
200,000,000 y = 3E-05x + 943.46
R 2 = 0.9676
6600
6400
1990
6200
6000
190,000
,000
195,000
,000
1992 1994 1996
Year
1998 2000
200,000
,000
205,000
,000
210,000
,000
215,000
,000
Number of Vehicles
220,000
,000
2002
225,000
,000
230,000
,000

• Canada and the United States are selected in a cluster sample of countries in North America, as they are the dominant producers of greenhouse gases.
• Since it is shown by many studies that global warming is indeed caused by the Greenhouse
Effect, we may be able to say from studying the above relationships that manufacturing more cars will contribute to global warming.
• However, as there are many other factors that can cause the Earth’s climate to change, we cannot conclude with certainty that the increase in the number of vehicles has caused significant changes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

• Burning fossil fuels is another major contributor to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Production of Energy biomass
14% coal
24% nuclear
6% natural gas
18% oil
33%

• As we can see from the pie chart in the previous slide, about 75% of the world’s energy is produced by burning fossil fuels.
• Let us examine how this affects global warming.
Here is a graph displaying the total fossil fuel CO
2 emissions in Canada between 1985 and 2004.
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1984
Total Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in Canada
1989 y = 4058.1x - 8E+06
R 2 = 0.9329
1994
Year
1999 2004

• Clearly, an increasing amount of carbon dioxide is being released from burning fossil fuels.
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, 1959-2004
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
390
380
370
360
350
1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Atmospheric CO2
Concentrations (ppm)
Now let us compare it with the temperature trend in the
Northern Hemisphere between 1960 and 2005.

Temp.Deviation from 20-Year Avg., 1960-2005
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
1950
-0.4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Temp.Deviation from 20-Year
Avg.
Linear (Temp.Deviation from
• As much as the temperature deviations fluctuate, we can see from the linear trend line that the average temperature had been steadily increasing.
The graph in the next slide clearly shows the cause-and-effect relationship between the two variables.

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions vs. Temp. Deviations from 20-
Year Avg.
1.2
1 y = 9E- 06x - 0. 5897
R
2
= 0. 8914
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
100000 110000 120000 130000 140000 150000 160000 170000 180000
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Temp. Devi at i on f r om 20-
Year Avg.
线性 (Temp.Deviation from
20- Year Avg. )

• It appears that the amount of fossil fuels burnt also has a strong, positive correlation with the rise in temperature.
• From studying the statistics, we learn that burning fossil fuels has indeed been producing more and more carbon dioxide each year.
• Since there is much evidence proving that global climate change is due to elevated levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is fair to say that burning fossil fuels is definitely a contributing factor to the global temperature rises.

• Despite much propaganda attempting to raise global awareness regarding global warming, the number of cars continues to increase, as do the sales of gasoline.
Net Sales of Gasoline in Canada, 2002-2006
39,500,000
39,000,000
38,500,000
38,000,000
37,500,000
37,000,000
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand Litres)
Linear (Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand
Litres))
Net Sales of Diesel Oil in Canada, 2002-2006
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Net Sales of Diesel Oil (Thousand
Litres)
Linear (Net Sales of Diesel Oil
(Thousand Litres))

Net Sales of Gasoline in Canada, 2002-2006
39,500,000
Net Sales of Diesel Oil in Canada, 2002-2006
39,000,000
38,500,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
38,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
37,500,000
0
37,000,000
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand Litres)
Net Sales of Diesel Oil (Thousand
Litres)
Linear (Net Sales of Diesel Oil
Linear (Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand
(Thousand Litres))
• If we extrapolate on the graphs, we can easily predict that in about five years, the sales of gasoline in Canada will exceed 39 billion litres per year, while the sales of diesel oil will surpass 20 billion litres per year.
• The implications of this are clear without saying: more greenhouse gases will be produced, which may lead to further changes of the Earth’s climate.

• Now let us look at how the climate has been affected so far. On the following page is a graph on the average annual rainfall amounts in Canada between the years of 1989-2003.
Average Annual Rainfall in Canada, 1989-2003
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
1986 1990 1994 1998
Year
2002 2006 2010 2014
Aver age Annual Rai nf al l
( mm)
线性 (Average Annual
Rai nf al l ( mm) )

• While there were great variations in the average yearly rainfall amounts during this decade and half, we can see from the negative slope of the trend line that on the whole, rainfall amounts had been decreasing.
• If this trend continues, then further drops in the amounts of rainfall can be expected.
• We can clearly see this by extending the trend line on the graph.

• So we have seen that alterations in the climate of the northern hemisphere have been occurring. Let us see if changes are also taking place on a global scale.
• If the global temperatures have indeed been getting warmer, then we can expect to perceive visible changes in the Polar Regions, where a rise in temperature can cause the ice to melt.
• Examining the graph on the following slide allows us to see the changes that had been occurring in the Arctic ice thickness between the years of 1990 to 1997.

Arctic Ice Thickness, 1990-1997
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Mean I ce Dr af t ( m)
线性 (Mean Ice Draft (m))
• As we can see, the sea ice had indeed been melting and getting thinner over these seven years.
• Because global temperatures have been climbing constantly, we can conclude that the ice melting is due to global warming.

• Another question arises from this conclusion:
What happens to the sea level as the ice melts?
The logical answer is that it will rise. Let us see if this is true.
Changes in Sea Level, Barents Sea (1978-2000)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1975
-5
-10
-15
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year Changes in Sea Level (cm)
Linear (Changes in Sea
Level (cm))

• As predicted, the sea levels are indeed rising. This can also be attributed to the global climate changes, as we have already concluded that global warming is what causes the ice to melt.
• Let us examine a recent set of data:
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Rise in Sea Level (cm)
15
9
15
10
17
18

• Assuming current trends will stay the same in the future, the likelihood of the Barents
Sea level rising more than 10 cm in a future year is 4/6 or 67%.
• The probability of the number of years the
Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in sea level in the next twenty years can be shown by a binomial distribution:

# of Years the Barents Sea Level Rises Over 10 cm (x)
0
1
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
18
19
20
14
15
16
17
9
10
11
12
13
P (x)
20
C
0
(0.67) 0 (0.33) 20 = 2.35X10
-10
20
C
1
(0.67) 1 (0.33) 19 = 9.53X10
-9
20
C
2
(0.67) 2 (0.33) 18 = 1.83X10
-7
20
C
3
(0.67) 3 (0.33) 17 = 2.24X10
-6
20
C
4
(0.67) 4 (0.33) 16 = 1.93X10
-5
20
C
5
(0.67) 5 (0.33) 15 = 1.25X10
-4
20
C
6
(0.67) 6 (0.33) 14 = 6.37X10
-4
20
C
7
(0.67) 7 (0.33) 13 = 2.59X10
-3
20
C
8
(0.67) 8 (0.33) 12 = 8.53X10
-3
20
C
9
(0.67) 9 (0.33) 11 = 2.31X10
-2
20
C
10
(0.67) 10 (0.33) 10 = 5.16X10
-2
20
C
11
(0.67) 11 (0.33) 9 = 9.52X10
-2
20
C
12
(0.67) 12 (0.33) 8 = 0.1450
20
C
13
(0.67) 13 (0.33) 7 = 0.1811
20
C
14
(0.67) 14 (0.33) 6 = 0.1839
20
C
15
(0.67) 15 (0.33) 5 = 0.1493
20
C
16
(0.67) 16 (0.33) 4 = 9.47X10
-2
20
C
17
(0.67) 17 (0.33) 3 = 4.53X10
-2
20
C
18
(0.67) 18 (0.33) 2 = 1.53X10
-2
20
C
19
(0.67) 19 (0.33) 1 =3.27X10
-3
20
C
20
(0.67) 20 (0.33) 0 = 3.32X10
-4

• As we can see from the chart from the previous slide, it is most likely that the sea level of the
Barents Sea will rise over 10 cm in 12 to 15 years of the future twenty years, if the current trend continues. The expected number of years E (x) is
20X0.67= 13.4 years.
• Now let us calculate the probability that the
Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in ten or more of the twenty years ahead. Since np=20X0.67=13.4 and nq=20X0.33=6.6 (both greater than 5), it is reasonable to use a normal distribution to approximate.
• The mean (μ) will be np=13.4, and the standard deviation (σ) will equal to (npq)
½
=2.1
½
=(20X0.67X0.33)

P(x > 9.5)
= 1 – P(x < 9.5)
= 1 – P(z < (9.5–13.4)/2.1)
= 1 – P(z < -1.86)
= 1 – 0.0314
≈ 0.97
The normal approximation shows that the likelihood of the Barents Sea rising over 10 cm in ten or more of the twenty future years is about 97%.
This high probability is also an indicator of how much the global climate has changed, and how much it will continue to change if the current trends persist.

• Strong, positive correlations have been found between the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and some human activities that produce such gases.
• Analyzing climate patterns allowed calculations to be done on the likelihood of further climate changes.
These calculations show that it is extremely likely for the Earth’s climate to continue changing in the future.
• Looking at the obtained results, it seems that global warming has indeed been caused by human activities, and the Earth’s climate will likely experience further changes, as stated in the hypothesis

• Although the gathered statistics all strongly support the hypothesis, they do not confirm its precision.
• While it is extremely probable that the hypothesis is correct, the fact remains that there are numerous other factors that can contribute to the greenhouse effect, and many organizations around the world are taking action to slow, if not stop global warming.

• Data were collected from trustworthy websites to minimize the number of results that are skewed due to various forms of bias.
• However, in some cases the sample sizes may have been too small and may not be representative of how the climate of the entire globe has been changing.

Thank you for listening