Populations
Chapter 24
http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html
Human Population
• We have seen
factors that
influence the growth
of populations in
general.
• Next we will apply
some of these to the
human population.
Fig. 24.22
Exponential
growth in the
human population
G=rxN
World Population: 2002
N = 6,228,394,430
r =
1.18
G =
73,915,261
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html
Changes in birthrates and death rates in Sri Lanka
Births - Deaths = r
World Population Events
Time unit
Births
Deaths
Growth
------------------------------------------------Year
131,571,719
55,001,289
76,570,430
Month
10,964,310
4,583,441
6,380,869
Day
360,470
150,688
209,782
Hour
15,020
6,279
8,741
Minute
250
105
146
Second
4.2
1.7
2.4
-------------------------------------------------
Fig. 24.25
Examine the population
demographics of these countries.
• Sweden
• Mexico
• United States
– Determine G, N and r
• http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html
Age structures of three nations
Shrinking
Growing
Stable
Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?
Your assignment
• Create a single powerpoint slide containing
– Data on your assigned variable for France,
Tanzania and the United States (be sure to
include units).
– Explain the impact of curing heart disease and
malaria on your variable – OR – Explain the impact of population changes
predicted for 2050 your variable.
– The name of your group members.
• Go to D2L and put them in the drop box.
Pop. Pyramid http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
N, r, and G
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html
Variable
N, r, and G
Life expectancy
Kids/woman
Infant Mortality
Adult Mortality
Immigration Emigration
Ecological footprint
Water supply amt./quality
Population density
Land use
Wildness
Predict
Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable
Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
Heart Disease is the leading cause of
death in developed countries.
• 50% of all deaths in US and
Europe, typically >50 years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack
of exercise, diabetes, and genetic
factors.
Clot in Coronary Artery
Malaria kills 2-3 million humans
annually (90% of malaria deaths are in
Subsaharan Africa)
Caused by Plasmodium parasite and
transmitted by mosquito
Affects primarily children under age
of five and pregnant women
(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
Example:
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Tanzania France
USA
Life
Expectancy
65 yrs
75 yrs
70 yrs
Curing
Malaria
No
impact
Increase Decrease
Increase
Decrease No
impact
I.M. Smart Curing
M.E. Too
Heart Disease
NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECT
ANSWERS, JUST EXAMPLES
Next class period we will…
– Present your slides in class and use them for
discussion.
– Discuss the impact of curing heart disease and
malaria on some of these variables.
– Discuss the impact of population changes
predicted for 2050 on the other variables.
– This is worth 5 points on the final exam.
Fig. 24.25
Age structures of three nations
Shrinking
Growing
Stable
Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?
Heart Disease is the leading cause of
death in developed countries.
• 50% of all deaths in US and
Europe, typically >50 years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack
of exercise, diabetes, and genetic
factors.
Clot in Coronary Artery
Malaria kills 2-3 million humans
annually (90% of malaria deaths are in
Subsaharan Africa)
Caused by Plasmodium parasite and
transmitted by mosquito
Affects primarily children under age
of five and pregnant women
(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
Examine the data you collected
=
Tanzania
N
By: Tiffany Tyson,
Chantelle Pelzer, and
Emily Brickert
X
France
USA
36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000
r
Births/1000 population=41
Deaths/1000 population=18
R=23/1000 people
Births/1000 population=13
Deaths/1000 population=9
R=4/1000 people
Births/1000 population=14
Deaths/1000 population=9
R=5/1000 people
G
2000-2010 growth
rate will be 2.0%
2000-2010
growth rate will
be 0.4%
2000-2010 growth
rate will be 0.9%
Curing
Malaria
The population
would increase
No impact
No impact
Malaria isn’t common
in developed countries
Malaria isn’t common in
developed countries
Would increase the
population of adults
Would increase the
population of adults
Heart Disease effects
mainly developed
countries
Heart Disease effects
mainly developed
countries
Malaria is common in
underdeveloped
countries
Curing
Heart
Disease
No Impact
Heart Disease effects
mainly developed
countries
N, r, and G for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
Tanzania
By:
David Feivor
France
USA
N (Total Population)
36,071,000 60,424,000
293,028,000
R (Growth Rate)
1.1%
-0.3%
0.7%
G (Change In)
396,781
(181,272)
2,051,196
Curing
Malaria
Increase N, No Impact
r, and G
No Impact
Curing
Heart Disease
Increase N, Increase N, r,
r, and G
and G
Increase N, r,
and G
Tim Molinarolo
Chelsea Enger
Nathan Tock
G, r and N for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Mike
Loeffler
Pete
Johnson
Tanzania
France
USA
G
r
N
Curing
Malaria
864,000
2.4%
36 MIL
Increase
300,000
0.5%
60 MIL
No
Impact
2.93 MIL
1.0%
293 MIL
No Impact
Curing
Heart
Disease
No Impact Increase
Increase
2
Life Expectancy in Year 2000
Age in Years
100
80
60
Age
40
20
0
France
Tanzania
US
Country
*If a cure for Malaria and heart disease are found, then the
populations will increase, and life expectancy will also increase.
By: Brittany Conant, Claire Knoble, Wren Walker
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States &
Effects of Curing Malaria and Heart Disease
Tanzania
France
USA
Life
Expectancy
44 yrs
78.8 yrs
76.6 yrs.
Curing
Malaria
Increase
No Impact No
Impact
Curing Heart
Disease
No Impact Increase
Increase
By: Andrea Fox, Brett Gullicksrud, Rachel Knutson, Katie Penniston, Pangdra Vang
Source: US Census Bureau
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Carrie Dietz
Kristin Minter
Jenn Moulton
Cassie Huettl
Ryan Meighan
Tanzania
France
USA
Life
Expectancy
44.1 yrs
78.8 yrs
76.6 yrs
Curing
Malaria
Increase
Increase
No Impact
Curing
Heart
Disease
Increase
Increase
Increase
Fertility Rate Per Woman
Source: US Census Bureau
USA
Fertility
Rate per
woman
France
Tanzania
2000 – 2025
2.1
2.2
2000 – 2025
1.9
1.8
2000 – 2025
5.5
3.4
kids/woman
kids/woman
kids/woman
NO
Curing NO
Malaria IMPACT IMPACT
INCREASE
Curing
Heart
Disease
NO
IMPACT
NO
NO
IMPACT IMPACT
No impact for curing
heart disease because
the women are above
childbearing age.
No impact for curing
malaria in the USA
or France because
they are developed
countries.
Increase in Tanzania
because less children
will be dying and
pregnant women will
have fewer
complications.
By Sara Schlough,
Kristine Tresemer,
Abby Biesterveld
Population of women/children for Tanzania, France, and United States
in the year 2000
Source: US Census Bureau
By:
Brittany
Montgomery
And Brittany
Shipman
Tanzania
France
USA
Women/
Children
7,464/
18,624
23,076/
15,066
104,477/
80,559
Curing
Malaria
Increase
No
Impact
No
Impact
Increase
Increase
Curing
No
Heart Disease Impact
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau
Tanzania France
Infant
Mortality
By:
Katie McNeely,
Elissa Bauer,
Amy Calhoun,
Nick Cerwin,
Becca Long
Curing
Malaria
USA
112 (male)/ 5(male)/
9 (male)/
92 (female)
4(female)
7 (female)
per 1000 per 1000 per 1000
Decrease Decrease Decrease
Mortality
Curing
No
Heart Disease Impact
No
Impact
No
impact
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States
*Sources: US Census Bureau & World Health Organization
Tanzania France
USA
Infant
Mortality
109 per
1000
7 per
1000
Curing
Malaria
Decrease No
impact
Curing
No
Heart Disease impact
5 per
1000
No
impact
No
impact
No
impact
By: Emily Noel, Christine Benzschawel, & Karin Mueller
4. Infant Mortality Rate for Tanzania, France, and United
States
Source: US Census Bureau and MamasHealth.com
By Jackie Henry and Lindsie Miller
Tanzania
France
USA
Infant Mortality 109 deaths 5 deaths
Rate per 1000
births
Curing
Decrease No
Impact
Malaria
7 deaths
Curing
Heart Disease
Decrease
Decrease
No
Impact
No Impact
Source: US Census Bureau
France
Tanzania
USA
Adult Mortality
(m/f per 1000)
133/60
561/512
140/83
Curing Malaria
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
Curing Heart
Diseases
Decrease
No Impact
Decrease
By: Katie Kratz, Sara Wanless, Marie Fouts
Adult Mortality for Tanzania, France, USA
By: Casy Dunphy
Source: US Census Bureau
Meghan Jablonski
Tanzania
France
USA
Adult Mortality
561-M
512-F
133-M
60-F
140-M
83-F
Curing
Malaria
Subtle
impact
Subtle
impact
Subtle
impact
Curing
Heart Disease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Adult Mortality
France
N,R,G
Adult
Mortality
Curing
Malaria
Curing
Heart
Disease
By: Pat Kelly, Andrea Keohane, and RAJ
N= 60,424,000 ppl
R= 0.5% growth
G= RN = 302,120 ppl
Tanzania
USA
N= 33,065,000 ppl
R= 2.4% growth
G= RN= 704,000
ppl
N= 293,028,000 ppl
R= 1.0 % growth
G= RN= 2,930,000
ppl
Info not available
on the WHO
website, but the
death rate is 18 per
thousand in the
population
Males: 140 per 1000
Females: 83 per
thousand
Will not have a large
effect on adult mortality
because malaria
primarily effects kids
Will slightly lower
adult mortality
because malaria is
prevalent in
subsaharan Africa
Will not have a large
effect on adult
mortality because
malaria is not
prevalent in the US
Will lower adult
mortality because HD is
the leading killer of
adults in developed
countries
Will not
significantly lower
adult mortality
because it is not a
big killer of adults
in Tanzania
Will lower adult
mortality because HD
is the leading killer of
adults in developed
countries
Males: 133 per 1000
Females: 60 per 1000
Source: US Census Bureau, World Health Organization
United States ---------12.22 hectares per capita
France-------------------7.27 hectares per capita
Tanzania----------------1.02 hectares per capita
1.0 hectares =2.471 acres
By:
Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan
As the population
increases over the
next 45 years, the
concentration of
people per hectare will
increase which results
in a lower ecological
footprint per capita.
Source: Nationmaster.com
Burma
France
Canada
Water
Availability
21,898
cubic
meters
3,349 cubic
meters
94,353 cubic
meters
Population
Changes
Increase
Decrease
Decrease
By: Kristina Hertel and Vanessa Keller
Water Availability for Tanzania,
France, and United States
Water Supply Amount/Quality for Tanzania, France, and
the United States
Source: nationmaster.com
Tanzania
France
United States
Water Supply Amount*
(in cubic meters)
3.64 thousand cubic
meters
3.26 thousand cubic
meters
7.09 thousand
cubic meters
Freshwater pollution*
(in tons per cubic km)
N/A
2.49 tons per cubic
km
1.14 tons per cubic km
Population from present
time to 2050
Increases
Increases
Increases
*The increasing populations of France, Tanzania, and the United States in 2050
will cause the water supply to decrease and the fresh water pollution rate to
increase.
Presentation created by: Ryan Klein, Jackie Rinzel, Kim Skuster, Krista
Woolever, and Sarah Kleman
Water Supply Amount and Quality for Tanzania, France, and United
States
Water
Supply
Amount and
Quality
Today
Water
Supply
Amount and
Quality in
2050
Tanzania
France
USA
Water Availability:
3.64 thousand cubic
meters
Freshwater Pollution:
0.00 tons/cubic km
Water Availability:
3.26 thousand cubic
meters
Freshwater Pollution:
2.49 tons/cubic km
Water Availability:
7.09 thousand cubic
meters
Freshwater Pollution:
1.14 tons/cubic km
Water Availability:
Decrease
Freshwater Pollution:
Increase
*POPULATION
PREDICTED TO
DOUBLE BY 2050
Water Availability:
Water Availability:
Same
Decrease
Freshwater Pollution: Freshwater Pollution:
Increase
Increase
*POPULATION
*POPULATION
PREDICTED SAME PREDICTED TO BE
SIZE AS NOW
1.5 TIMES LARGER
Sources: www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/env_eco_foo&int=-1; US Census Bureau
By: Dena Shefelbine, Scott Szukalski, Klarissa Czys, Whitney Miller, Erik Haworth
Population Density for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base
In persons /
sq. km.
Tanzania France
USA
Today
40.7
110.7
32
2050
81.2
111.8
45.8
By: Brian
Peters,
Alexa
Jaime
Population densities for France, Tanzania, and U.S.
Source: www. Census.gov/ipc/wwwidbagg.html (001 density)
France
Tanzania
U.S.
Population Today
Density (persons per
sq. km.)
60,424,213
110.7
36,071,799
40.7
293,028,571
32.0
Population 2050
Density (persons per
sq. km.)
61,017,122
111.8
71,949,135
81.2
420,081,587
45.8
Impact
Increase
Increase
Increase
Christina Berggren, Jordan Hauser, and Michelle Huhn
Population Density for United States, France and Tanzania
Source: U.S. Census Brureau
United
States
France
Tanzania
Population
2004
293,027,571
60,424,213
36,070,799
Population
2050
Population
Density
420,080,587
61,017,122
71,949,135
Increase
Increase
Slightly
Increase
Crystal Svoboda, Amanda Zellner, Tony Caauwe, Natosha Hoffmann
Land Use
Land Use – percent of total land area available for: cultivated crops (arable land), permanent
crops (Permanent), and other areas (Other) such as prairies, pastures, forests, and built-on lands.
It is predicted that the population in Tanzania and the United States will almost double, while the
growth rate of France is not nearly as high.
Country
Type of Land
Percent of
land (%)
Prediction for
2050
Tanzania
Arable
4.52
Increase
Permanent
1.08
Decrease
Other
94.4
Increase
Arable
19.13
Decrease
Permanent
0.22
No Impact
Other
80.65
Increase
Arable
33.53
Decrease
Permanent
2.07
Decrease
Other
64.4
Increase
United States
France
By: Breann Sommer, Jens Hogberg, Lindsay Tietz, & James Bodah
Wildness for Tanzania, France, and
United States
Wildness
Tanzania
France
USA
Today
9.30%
0.04%
35.89%
2050
Decrease
substantially
Decrease
Slightly
Decrease
Tanzania will decrease because they are still a developing
country. France will decrease slightly because they have used up
most of their unprotected land. The USA will decrease because
of our increasing population. Not all of the land will be used
because the United States has one of the largest masses of
preserved land. All of the countries will decrease in wildness
because the world population has not reached its carrying
capacity.
By: Amy Yoel, Megan Brisch,
Alison Smetana, Ethan Lor
Source: www.nationmaster.com
# 11 Wildness
Michelle Tentis
Megan Brennan
Rachael Stanze
United States
France
Tanzania
Wildness
35.89%
.04%
9.3%
Current
Population
290,342,554
60,180,529
35,922,454
Growth Rate
.92%
.42%
1.72%
Effect of Pop.
Because the growth rate is positive in all
On Wildness three countries, the wildness will be depleted
in 2050
as a result of necessary expansion.
Examine the data you collected
• For each variable, determine the impact of
curing malaria and heart disease on that
variable.
In developed countries, what
happens if we cure heart disease?
• Population
No significant increase
• Consumption
Increase
• Quality of life
Increases life expectancy, but will also increase
heath costs and drain on resources
In developing countries, what
happens if we cure malaria?
• Population
Significant increase
• Consumption
Increase
• Quality of life
Increases life expectancy, but will also dramatically
increase use of already scarce resources
Impact of Disease on Population
• Which would have a greater impact on
world population, curing heart disease or
curing malaria?
MALARIA
Parasitologist’s Dilemma
• What happens if we don’t cure malaria?
Death rate stays high, population growth is suppressed
• What happens if we do cure malaria?
Death rate drops, population grows more rapidly
• What could you do to keep population
growth low, while still curing malaria?
What could you do to keep population
growth low, while still curing malaria?
Decrease fertility rate per woman
Less developed countries
More developed countries
3.05
1.57
Spread out the generations
Start having children at age 30 vs. 15
Birth-control
Abstinence, contraception, sterilization
Other
Education of women, affluence (wealth)
Why do we want to keep
population growth low?
• In many poor countries resources are
already scarce.
– Tanzania < 2,000 calories per day
– France, USA >3,200 calories per day
• If population increases, available food per
person decreases.
• This leads to increased pressure on the
environment and ecosystems around the
world
Is there a correlation between
consumption and quality of life?
France
Tanzania
USA
Consumption
Average
Low
High
Quality of Life
Highest
Low
High
Quality
Of Life
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
5
10
15
Consumption (ecological footprint)
Is the current level of consumption
in the US sustainable?
Tanzania
France
USA
Footprint (ha/person)
1.0
7.3
12.2
Actual resources (ha/person)
0.6
7.4
8.0
Net Difference
-0.4
+0.1
-4.2
• No, we must import a third of our resources.
Impact of consumption on the environment
• Consumption by the average American
– The US uses 250-300 liters of water/person/day
• for drinking, cooking, bathing, sanitation, and
watering yards (the minimum amount needed for
those things MINUS the yard watering is 50
liters/person/day).
• In contrast, a country like Tanzania uses less than 5
liters of water/person/day.
– The average American consumed over 200
pounds of red meat, poultry, and fish in 2000.
– The average coffee drinker in the United States
drinks 3.1 cups of coffee/day.
Impact of consumption on the environment
• Consumption by the average American
– In 2001, the average American produced 4.4 pounds of
garbage waste per day
• (product packaging, clothes, food scraps, bottles, grass
clippings, etc., before recycling).
• Compare this to 2.7 pounds of garbage waste/person/day in
1960.
– About 91,286 million liters of soda are consumed/year.
This is over 300 liters/person/year!
– In 2001, the United States used 341.8 million Btus of
energy/person and emitted 5.5 metric tons of
carbon/person.
• In the same year, France used 177.8 million Btus/person and
emitted only 1.8 metric tons of carbon.
What is the impact of consumption
on the environment?
• To make a single 2 gram computer chip
requires
– 1.6 liters of fossil fuel
– 72 grams of chemicals
– 32 kilograms (8 gallons) of water
What is the impact of consumption
on the environment?
(compare Tanzania with France/USA)
Tanzania
France
USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare)
600
3000
1600
Fertilizer use (kg/hectare)
7
263
112
SO4 produced (tons/km2)
100
1000
1600
Water pollution (tons/km3)
0.1
2.5
1.1
Wilderness remaining
9.3%
0.04%
36%
Ecological footprint
1
7.3
12.2
What is the impact of population
density on the environment?
(compare France with the USA)
Tanzania
France
USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare)
600
3000
1600
Fertilizer use (kg/hectare)
7
263
112
SO4 produced (tons/km2)
100
1000
1600
Water pollution (tons/km3)
0.1
2.5
1.1
Wilderness remaining
9.3%
0.04%
36%
Population Density (people/km2)
40
110
31
Parasitologist’s Dilemma
• Should we try to cure malaria?
• Given your answer, are there other actions
we should take at the same time?
Is there hope?
What type of growth is this?
Logistic
N
What determines K for humans?
• Adapt our environment to meet our
needs rather than adapt to our
environment.
• Predation
– Only ourselves
• Parasites
– Sanitation
– Medications
• Competition
– Mass extinctions
What is K for humans?
K = 1010 people?
Is this sustainable?
r
G
Feeding the world
• World’s farmers have doubled the food
supply since 1973
–
–
–
–
–
Miracle wheat seeds and high yielding rice
Irrigation
Fertilizers and pesticides
Genetically modified crops
Actually have more food/person than in 1973
Normalized to 1970
Agricultural Production per Person
has remained relatively constant
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Population
Food/person
Food
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
Top 5 countries by population
(2003)
1
2
3
4
5
China
India
United States
Indonesia
Brazil
1,286,975,468
1,049,700,118
290,342,554
234,893,453
182,032,604
Population x Consumption =
Environmental Impact
Population
China
Consumption
(hect/person)
Impact
(hectares)
1,286,975,468
1.8
2,316,555,842
1,049,700,118
1.0
1,049,700,118
United
States
290,342,554
12.7
3,687,350,436
Indonesia
234,893,453
1.5
352,340,180
Brazil
182,032,604
2.6
473,284,770
India
Sustainable Development:
Land Used < Land Available
Impact
(hectares)
China
Available
(hectares)
Difference
(hectares)
2,316,555,842
1,544,370,562
-772,185,281
India
1,049,700,118
656,062,574
-393,637,544
United
States
3,687,350,436
2,322,740,432
-1,364,610,004
Indonesia
352,340,180
610,722,978
258,382,798
Brazil
473,284,770
1,019,382,582
546,097,812
Ecological impact
• Impact = population X consumption
• Americans consume more per capita than
anyone else on earth.
• It would take 3.28 billion Indians to
consume what 290 million Americans do.
Sustainable development
• A balance between population and
consumption within the limits imposed by
nature
• Need to achieve sustainability
– Reduction in pop growth in developing nations
– Reduction in consumption in developed nations
The End
Population
pyramids
for Tanzania
-2000
-2025
-2050
Population pyramids
for France
-2000
-2025
-2050
Population pyramids
for United States
-2000
-2025
-2050
General Pop. Stats.
Tanzania France USA
Pop. (in millions)
36.0
59.5
285.9
Infant Mortality
(death/1000 live births)
Fertility rate
104
5
8
5.5
1.7
2.0
Life Expectancy @ birth
46
72
76
Child mortality (per 1000)
159
5
8
Adult mortality (per 1000)
526
97
113
Health expenditure/
capita (Intl. $)
36
2,335
4,499
Growth
(G=r x N)
r (%)
Tanzania
France
USA
2.9
0.4
1.1
N
35,964,000
59,452,000
285,925,000
G
1,042,956
237,808
3,145,175