The Status of Food Security
In Africa
United Nations
Economic Commission for Africa
Suxth Session of the Committee
on Food Security and Sustainable Development (CFSSD-6)
Regional Implementation Meeting (RIM) for CSD-18
Hamdou Raby Wane
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
FSSDD/UNECA
27-30 October2009
Structure of the Presentation
 The Context of the Current Debate on Food Security in
Africa
 Food Security Issues and Challenges
 The Global Food Price Surge and Its Impact on the Food
Trade Balance
 Policy Responses – Macroeconomic Implications and
Food Price Impacts
 Recommendations on The Way Forward
2
The Context of the Current Debate on Food
Security in Africa
 “Food security” (FS): not only the availability of food, but also the
ability to purchase food.
 TO BE FOOD SECURE = to have a reliable source of food and
sufficient resources to purchase it.
 To Deal with FS Policy issues: 1) Assess the state of FS, 2) identify
the underlying causes and the proximate factors of food shortages
and of disruptions/losses in real incomes across the most food
needy populations.
 Global food crisis (2007 onwards) as a Systemic Factor
– THREAT - has exacerbated these causes and factors of food insecurity
– OPPORTUNITY CHALLENGE to Africa for long-term solutions to
hunger through agriculture-led growth.
3
 Novelty of a Food Crisis to Africa?
 More of the Same: food shortages and hardships
 Additional stringent strains on households’ incomes, on external
positions and to national budgets
 FC can complicate, if not reverse any progress, towards the attainment of
the MDGs-related poverty and hunger targets.
 On the + side : use of the FC as an opportunity for the revitalization and the
development of African agriculture on the medium to long term.
 Imperative: build a strong consistency between:
 the crisis response – i.e. the set of policy measures and actions
deployed to mitigate its short term impacts, and
 the medium to long term development policy.
4
Food Security Issues and Challenges
Over a decade (1995/97-2003-05), real progress has been made in many
countries and across the sub-regions. However, the challenge seems unabated
in very large populations and this is even more compounded by the setbacks
that are stemming from the recent global food crisis.
Undernourishment and Hunger on the Rise
 Worldwide: People chronically hungry (undernourished): 923
million in 2007, up by 75 million from 2003-05 (FAO 2008
data)

Largest additional contingents in Asia (41 million) and in SSA
(24 million, almost 1/3 of the total increase)

Setback more accentuated in the recent period & the
progress made at the turn of the millennium has been
completely wiped out in SSA as well as in Latin America and
5
the Caribbean
Trends in number and proportion of
undernourished people
 Undernourished in SSA
 236 million (2007); cumulated
increase>67 million since 1990–92 – the
base period for the World Food Summit
(WFS) hunger reduction target
Change in number
(millions)
30
25.2
24
25
18.1
20
16.4
14.9
15
9
10
 Annual growth rate 3 times higher
between 2003-05 and 2007 than during
the preceding decade
4
5
3.4
0.3 0.3
0
-5
-3.5
North Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1990-92 to 1995-97
 11% of the world’s total population &
25% of the total of hungry people in
2003-05
Central Africa
East Africa
1995-97 to 2003-05
Southern Africa
West Africa
2007
Source: data from FAO 2008
20Change in proportion
(%)
 Proportion in 2003-05 :
 North Africa: less than 5%
2.2
1
-0.1
17
15
10
6
5
 SSA: 30%; world average 13%;
developing world 16%
0
0
-1
-5
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-10
 Proportion: minus 4 percentage points
from the 34% plateau of 1990-92
-9
-15
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central Africa
1990-92 to 1995-97
East Africa
Southern Africa
1995-97 to 2003-05
6
West Africa
 High concentration of hunger (in number and in prevalence) in
East and Central Africa
 DRC & Ethiopia: 38% of the SSA’s hungry people; 80 percent and 41
percent of their respective sub-regions. Together with Nigeria and
Tanzania, they account for almost half of the total of the sub-continent.
 Central Africa
• Proportion incr. by 6% between 1995-97 and 2003-05, mostly due to DRC
(76% +2.4% per an).
• 8 out of every 10 additional in SSA in 2003-05 / 1995-97
 Large and fast reductions in countries and regions (Centre,
South, East) with the highest prevalence (40-50%) in the 90s
Therefore, any substantial progress in these four countries would have an important
7 the
impact on the containment of hunger, and therefore on poverty alleviation throughout
continent.
Patterns and Trends of Food Emergency
 Hunger Hotspots (HH) & critical problems of food insecurity
(GIEWS/FAO List)
 Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
as a result of crop failure, natural disasters, interruption of
imports, disruption of distribution, excessive post-harvest
losses, or other supply bottlenecks;
 Widespread lack of access, where a majority of the
population is considered to be unable to procure food from
local markets, due to very low incomes, exceptionally high
food prices, or the inability to circulate within the country; or,
 severe localized food insecurity due to the influx of refugees,
a concentration of internally displaced persons, or areas with
combinations of crop failure and deep poverty (FAO/GIEWS
8
2008).
 Dec.05-April 09: 16/46 countries as food secure – i.e. they
did not face any food crisis that required emergency
assistance
 350 million people – i.e. 40% of the continent’s population;
 Small size countries have been more successful. Average pop. of
6.5 million (Gabon, Rwanda, Botswana, Mauritius & Namibia).
 Countries facing food crises
 1993–2000: an average of 15 SSA annually
 After 2001: up to ~ 25
 2005 onward: with a core set of ~20 consistently listed and 12
others that appear occasionally, SSA contributed by 60% to 70% to
the FAO/GIEWS world list.
 East = 34% of the HH. All but Rwanda
 West: 2 out of 3 countries yearly or occasionally
 Centre and South: 18% of HH each
9
Typology of food emergencies (2005-09)
Overall
 Severe localized food insecurity : 57%
 Widespread lack of access: 23%
100.0
80.0
 Exceptional shortfall in aggregate
production/supply: 20%
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Ea
st
Ce
nt
ral
W
So
es
ut
t(
he
Ni
rn
ge
su
r
ia
bex
Sa
c l.
ha
)
ra
nA
fri
ca
By sub-region
 Severe localized food insecurity: 70% in
Central & Eastern Africa; less than ½ of
the cases in West Africa
Severe localized food
insecurity
Widespread lack of
access
Exceptional shortfall in
food production/supply
 Widespread lack of access: 53% in West
Africa; where it is more than twice SSA’s
average and more than 5 times the level
of East Africa (10 percent); negligible in
Southern and Central Africa
 Exceptional shortfall in food
production/supply: 80% of the cases in
Southern Africa; East: 20%
10
Main Causes of food emergencies (2005-09)
29%
Wa r,confl i ct a nd
i ns ecuri ty
Soci o-economi c fa ctors
6%
64%
Na tura l a nd wea therrel a ted fa ctors
 War and conflicts and the related social unrest in SSA (~2/3 of the cases): main
causes of famine through destruction of assets, displacement of populations albeit
the absolute number of such crises has been decreasing over the period.
 More than ½ of the socio-economic and 1/3 of the weather-related food emergencies
are associated with the conflict factor. Increasing proportion of natural disasters in SSA,
especially floods – a feature that SSA shares with the rest of the world.
 In 2002, about 6.3 million people (refugees, IDPs, returnees) were in need of
assistance owing to conflicts and natural disasters in the Horn of Africa. Three
quarter of them were in the IGAD member-countries
 HIV/AIDS scourge: from 2006 onwards, identified, by GIEWS, as the main cause of
11
the highly severe localized food insecurity that prevailed in many parts of Southern
Africa, e.g. Malawi, Lesotho and Swaziland, and in some Eastern Africa countries.
Supply of major Foods groups, Energy supply
and the Diet diversity
 Average Daily Supply in 2003-05
 Cereals almost stagnated over a decade in all sub-regions except
in Central Africa where it increased (at the expense of starchy
roots) by 6.7 percent yearly since early 1990s albeit its share
remained the lowest of the sub-regions.
 Starchy roots decreased in Eastern Africa by ~ 1/2 percent
yearly. Dramatically increased In the 3 other sub-regions; almost
doubled every 2 years in North Africa.
 Animal products – namely milk and eggs (an important source of
protein and of micronutrients) increased very substantially in all
the sub-regions but Southern Africa and, to a lesser extent, in
West Africa. In 2003-05, it regained in the other three sub-regions,
the losses incurred between 1990-92 and 1995-97.
12
The dietary energy supply increased only in North Africa and in few SSA countries.
Overall, if not reversed, its increases were not sufficient to meet daily energy
requirements.
The higher the per capita income levels, the larger the supply of dietary energy from
animal foods (rich in high-quality proteins and micronutrients, such as iron, zinc and
vitamin A) and the bigger the intake of fruits and vegetables (which contain vitamin A
precursor) as substitutes to starchy foods.
These foods are usually the most expensive. The recent global prices hike has mostly
impacted these food commodities and the cereals.
13of
This is one of the main factors of increased undernourishment and, therefore,
deepened poverty in sub-Saharan African and of likely reversals in the North
Economic and agricultural growth performance
 Evidence collected by the FAO shows a positive correlation between
growth in African agricultural and level of performances on the MDG1 target:
 A steady and relatively rapid growth - characterized by gains in
agricultural value added, food production, cereal production and
cereal yields, in the 14 African countries on track on MDG-1
target; and, inversely
 A sharp fall of food production and lower levels of agricultural
value added (by ¼ of the rate of the former group) in the 14
African countries that either have failed to reduce the prevalence
of undernourishment or have seen it increase since 1990–92.
Countries that have scored stark successes include several
that emerged from decades of civil war and conflict, offering
striking evidence of the importance of peace and political
stability for hunger reduction” (FAO 2008).
14
Figure I.5 Agricultural productivity growth, depth of
hunger and collective food security, 1994-2003
Source: Pratt and Yu, FAOSTAT
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
De pth of
Hunge r
Efficie ncy
Te chnologica l
Cha nge
-4.0
in tota l
cons umption
Sha re (%) of food
a id
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
-14.0
2<T F P <3.5 (7 c o unt ries .M ean=2.8)
1
<T F P <2 (8 c o unt ries . M ean=1
.5)
-4.0<=T F P <1(1
2 c o unt ries . M ean=-0.6)
 Growth in agriculture output has been accompanied with a strong growth in overall
productivity levels in the sector.
 The best performers in overall agricultural productivity also recorded very substantive results
in reducing the depth of hunger – a measurement of the intensity of food deprivation. The
higher the annual growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP), the more retrenched is hunger and
the higher is the collective food security as measured by the share of food aid in the total
consumption.
 Most of the growth is explained by efficiency gains rather than technological change.
Increased efficiency and accelerated output growth in SSA resulted from differential growth
between sub-sectors.
 Maize’s annual growth rates: 3.5% in 1984-1993 to 0.9% in the 1990s 
 share in total output in 2003 = ~ 1984 levels.
 Contributes to the stagnation of supply of cereals in all regions but Central Africa
 increased supply of proteins from animal foods to compensate for the maize related losses
15
of proteins and lipids.
Top contributors (@ 70%) to total output growth
of:
Most dynamic sub-sectors
 Oil crops - in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Ghana;
 Roots and tubers - Nigeria, Ghana, Malawi, and Mozambique;
 Other cereals - Ethiopia and Nigeria;
 Milk - the highlands of East Africa and Sudan;
 Vegetables: Nigeria and Cameroon.
On the Downside




Tropical fruits - Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya;
Beef - Highlands of East Africa and Sudan
Rice production - Mali, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, and Nigeria.
Sheep and goat meat - Nigeria and Sudan.
16
Main Characteristics of the Best-performers
Similar growth in TFP and increased labor and
land productivity owing to an increased use of
fertilizer per hectare and worker
 Countries that are more likely to have improved rural living standards
through increased labor income in agriculture.
 However, acceleration of yields increase is needed to compensate the
growth in rural population, improve rural income and sustain land
management
The main challenge is now to sustain, accelerate and broaden this in the
medium to longer term in the current context of global food and fuel prices hike.
This is imperative if Africa is to achieve the desired changes in poverty and
malnutrition levels within the timeframe defined under the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs).
17
The Rising Urban Poverty: A Threat to Food Security
 In absolute terms, rural poverty remains higher than urban poverty, but
urban poverty is growing at a faster rate.
 Rising urban poverty is a threat to food security:
1. it derives from much higher levels of inequality within the urban population
than in the rural one, therefore compromising the food security of increasing
segments of urban dwellers.
2. High income inequality in urban areas is the reason that more than 1/2 of the
urban population is below the poverty line in SSA countries such as
Angola, Chad, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, and
Zambia
3. Unlike in rural areas, food-insecurity problems in urban areas are not related to
a lack of available food. Instead, they are related to inadequate purchasing
power.
4. This reduces the size of the internal agro-food markets, therefore,
negatively impacting income earnings of farmers.
18
• In Africa, urban populations can use up to 60
percent (close to 100 percent for the poorest) of
their income on food and, thus, creating, a
growing market.
• But, as a result of a changing urban diet of the
wealthiest and of relatively lower cost of imports
of staple foods derived from rice and wheat, the
urban food demand is largely disconnected
from the traditional food supply chain – i.e. most
of local agriculture.
• Breakdown in positive inter-sectoral linkages
between agriculture and the rest of the
economy. This is the main underlying factor to
the high level of food import dependence, a
major feature of the vulnerability of the LDCs. 19
The food import-dependency
 Since the early 90s, African LDCs have been exposed to
increased import surges - in terms of numbers and of
frequency. Between 40 and 60 percent of the total import
surges occurred during 1990-2003 for any of the
commodities considered.
 In 2000–2003, African countries changed to being net
food importers from their high surpluses of the 1980s.
Continent’s share of global food exports stable @ ~3%,
while the imports went up at 4-5 percent.
 Therefore, these import surges affected the domestic
production of processed – such as poultry meat – and
unprocessed agricultural goods – such as rice and
tomato paste since the concerned imported goods are
produced locally or are substitutes.
20
 Yearly, on the average in 2000-2005, the total food trade
bill was of US$ 17,340 billion of exports and of 24 billion of
imports, leading to an average deficit of 6,600 billion.
 Food import bill: ~US$ 20 billion in 2001 and >33 billion –
i.e. 2/3 of the food market in 2006, year in which the deficit
was close to 9,600 billion up by 45 percent on the year
before.
Trends in the food import bill, 2000 to 2006
35,000,000
30,000,000
(Thousands of $US)
25,000,000
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
Africa
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008
2005
2006
21
Cereals and preparations accounted for 37 percent
of the total of the food groups.
Share of cereals in North Africa - 43-47% ; SSA 9.511.5%.
The global share of cereal imports by Africa: ~22%
percent, while its share in exports is roughly 3%
Import growths were above average (2.1 percent
annually) for cereals, oilseeds, meat, beverages and
miscellaneous food products.
 33 countries in deficit and 18 net food exporters.
However, converting traded food commodities
22 .
into calories tells a different story of food trade
 Over the period 2003-2005, total food consumption benefited
quite substantially from the imports in only 2 food net exporters
(Côte d’Ivoire and Malawi) and 2 food net importers (Mauritius and
Swaziland). This is owing to more inward-oriented diets and to a
more favorable caloric balance of internationally traded foodstuff.
 All the other (48) countries were in deficit – i.e. the calorie-content
of their food imports outpaced the equivalent in food exports. The net
trade caloric balance of food was:
– neutral or significantly in deficit (up to 25 percent) in either net
food exporters (13) or net food importers (12).
– as high as 50 percent at least in 13 others – including 2 net food
exporters (Mauritania and Morocco and almost all but three LMICs).
– comprised between 1/4 and 1/2 of the total food consumption in
the remaining 7 countries.
23
Concentration of the most dependent along the Northern, the
North-Western and South-Western coasts. Disconnected from
the hinterland of the continent, they are as food dependent as
more industrialized and wealthier countries like Mexico, Chile
and Venezuela in Latin America or the big oil exporters in the
Middle East or in the Arabian Gulf.
Net Trade in Food, 2003-05
24
The Vulnerability of the Households to Food
Insecurity
 Main factors of vulnerability stem from:
 its status vis-à-vis the food market, primarily as net food seller/consumer.
According to FAO data from nine developing countries, about 3/4 of rural
households and 97% of urban households are net food buyers.
 importance of the relative share of food consumption expenditure in its total
consumption expenditures
 More at risks are the vast majority of the poor urban and rural households (especially
landless and female-headed households) depending on:
 their dietary patterns,
 expenditure shares of internationally traded food staples (such as wheat, rice,
maize),
 substitution options towards less-expensive foods,
25
 access to assets usable to produce and sell food staples competitively and to
earn incomes.
THE GLOBAL FOOD PRICE SURGE
AND ITS IMPACT ON AFRICA
 The FAO Food Price Index: in June 2008, a record 214 points, or a 85 % increase up from
last term of 2006. Then it decreased to reach an average 152 points in May 2009.
 Highest price rises on oils and fats along with cereals - a reflection of the increased
integration of agriculture and energy markets through the development of corn and
vegetable oils-based biofuels as of the feeding needs of a booming meat-producing
business in the emerging markets of Asia.
 January 05 – June/July 08
 Maize prices almost tripled, rice and wheat prices increased 170% and 127%. More
than doubled from end of 2007 well into 2008.
 palm oil prices up by 200%, soybean oil by192% and other vegetable oil prices by
similar amounts. In comparison, other food prices – i.e. of sugar and meat increased by 30 to 50%
 January-May 09 / same period of 2008, global prices of cereals decreased..
26
 Significant fall in international prices in the second half of
2008 by 31 percent and only by -0.1 percent for rice. rice
prices are still well the above their 2007 international
prices
 But, The pass-through between international commodity
markets and consumer prices was high in the phase of
increasing prices. The reverse was not evident during the
subsequent period of falling prices.
 Purchasing food on the international market place
has been a heavier burden to SSA than to any other
region. In 2008, the increase was far less for developed
countries and the expected drop in their 2009 bills is
disproportionately higher.
All forecasts expect food prices to remain high in the long run, mainly as
a result of continuously rising biofuel demand and structural factors
related to population and income growth (OECD-FAO, 2009, USDA, 2009).
These are worrisome prospects for food security in African countries that
are facing losses of shares on the international markets and depreciating
27
value of exports.
The effect on the food-trade balance
 UN Comtrade Data - Sample of 25 African
countries on 2006-2008. Includes 8 of the top10 exporters and 6 of the top-10 importers over
the period 2000-2005.
Changes (in %) in export and import
of selected countries, 2006-2008
 Total food trade of $ 43,270 billion, of which
23,137 billion of imports – i.e. 66 percent of the
estimated imports of the region - it shows a
deficit of 3 billion.
 However, the balance deficit is in diminution by
2,723 billion – i.e. -48% on a year ago, when it
increased by its highest figure – i.e. 3,878
billion between 2006 and 2007.
 Among the Net Food Exporters
–
6 substantially improved their surplus,
–
3 registered a decreasing surplus – by
as high as1/2 (Malawi), 60% (Zambia) or
85% (Seychelles).
– 6 others became net food importing.
Exp.
* Mauritius – 90 million surplus in 2006 and a
deficit of 190 million in 2008 –
* Ethiopia – deficit of 40 million in 2008 from
surpluses of 215 million and 339 million
the preceding years.
In 2008, the top-8 exporters –
60% of the food trade, an
increase in exports faster (39%)
than the average of the sample
(22%). Contraction of food
imports (-10.5%)> av. of the2825
countries (-4%).
THE POLICY RESPONSES
The Country Level

Use of a mix of market-based and command and control short-term
measures aiming at reducing consumer prices, providing safety nets to the
most food insecure, and guaranteeing an adequate food supply and,
performances permit, to export surplus.

Set of measures have included:


releasing food stock to market, and waiving/easing import taxes and/or
imposing export restrictions to maintain domestic food availability;

applying price controls, subsidies and cash and food transfers to keep
food affordable to different segments of the society;

iii) drawing down on stocks to stabilize supplies and prices; and,

providing support measures to increase local production on the medium
to the long-term
At least initially, very few governments have tried to foster an agricultural
supply response. But now, almost all of them have taken action to provide
farmers with the support needed to boost agricultural production.
29
 In 24 countries: in 2007 and early 2008, 7/10 reduced cereal
import taxes and roughly the same proportion applied export
restrictions, and price controls or consumer subsidies in an
attempt to keep domestic food prices below world prices.
Almost 40 percent of the governments took action to increase
supply, drawing down on food grain stock.
 Due to shortage of foreign exchange, many poor food-deficit
countries have been importing much less and have been
resorting to food aid or external assistance to bridge the gap
30
 Unexpected consequences of export restrictions or
bans: exp. of a cross-examination on both sides of the
chains in the Sahel and West Africa around Nigeria and
between the coast and the Sahelian hinterland (Staatz
2008). Given their production potential or market size –
both internally and at sub-regional levels, noncoordinated measures of the kind can jeopardize
efforts towards regional markets integration, are short of:
– taking advantage of agro-ecological
complementarities,
– tend to hurt producers and trade partners, and
– may actually increase prices of local staple produces,
taking them out of reach of the common diet.
31

The biggest challenges faced by the existing social policies
revolve around the following issues:
1. efficient targeting to ensure that benefits reach the neediest;
2. level and sustainability of funding in the context of scarcity of
donors’ support; and,
3. resources mobilization and allocation – i.e. alignment with
agricultural policies. This is particularly relevant as the other
main axis of action aims at fostering commercial agriculture
and at promoting smallholder agriculture for poverty
32
reduction.
The Regional level
AU/NEPAD Initiative to assist countries to address the food price
crisis through acceleration of CAADP country roundtable
process. It involves all key AU institutional partners.
 Overall objective: to develop a Government/UN Country Action
Plan that will include a call for assistance. Draft country action
plans and roadmaps for short, medium and long term have been
designed.
 Inter—agency assessment missions conducted. Components: 1)
Humanitarian assistance: social safety nets; 2) Agricultural
production (short term leading to longer term solutions); 3)
Policies to respond to high food prices; 4) Budget adjustment to
assist countries.
 Completed Action plans for Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Sierra
Leone, Madagascar, Somalia and The Gambia.
33
International Action and Commitments
 UNSG established, on 29 April 2008, a High Level Task Force
on the Global Food Crisis (HLTF) with the aim of drawing a
prioritized plan of action and coordinate its implementation.
 Comprehensive Framework for Action (CFA): Joint position of
HLTF members reiterated by the High Level Conference on
World Food Security attended by Heads of States, Gov. and
Rep. of 108 countries, 3-5 June 2008, FAO, Rome. Common
Declaration recommending: 1) to meet immediate needs of
vulnerable populations; and, 2) to build longer term resilience
and contribute to global food and nutrition security
 UN System (FAO, WFP, IFAD Funds) and Others: The World
Bank’s New Deal for Global Food Policy; IMF Action Plan
 More recently, “L’Aquila” Joint Statement on Global
34
Food Security, 10 July 2009
Impact on Current Account Balance and
on Balance of Payments
Simulations by IMF (2008a & 2008b) of fuel & food prices
shocks
 Food price increase: severe negative effect for 5 LICs
countries. DRC: - 4 years of reserves; Eritrea & Liberia,
resp. ¾ & 2/3 of their initial position.
 Combined price hikes would take a heavy toll from 24
countries. Morocco and South Africa and, marginally,
Tunisia – would compensate partly the oil price shock by
taking advantage of the food prices surge.
 Severe reduction in coverage in 18 LICs. Stronger
impact from food price increase (- 0.7 months of
reserve coverage) than from the oil price (– 0.4 months)35
 Among ten countries surveyed by the IMF in the CFA
Franc Zone, it is in only one – i.e. Senegal, that the
predicted increase in the food import bill would widen the
deficit of the current account balance as a share of their
2007 GDP, by 1 percent point
36
The transmission – “pass-through” –
of international price changes to domestic
food markets
 Weak urban-rural linkages buffer the rural communities
from both urban and global economic downturns; also
limit the benefits of an economic upturn. Higher prices
were, however, transmitted to consumers in most cases
in spite of governments’ interventions
 Despite the decline of prices on the world market in the
second half of 2008 and early 2009, prices of main
staple foods in many countries of the region remain
higher than a year ago.
37
 The main factor limiting the impact of global food price increases on
domestic food prices has been the existence of a diversified base for
domestic production of several food commodities in combination with
a partial insulation from the from most global food markets, and from
shifts in international food prices . Due to poor infrastructure and/or
trade barriers, such as the early export bans in Ethiopia, Mali,
Tanzania.
 In such cases, exchange rate movements also mitigated the impact
of world market price increases on domestic prices. Exp: in West of
Africa (, e.g. in Ghana and Niger) and East Africa (e.g. in Uganda,
Tanzania and Ethiopia).
 Prices of crops that are mainly domestically produced, e.g. maize,
other coarse grains in the Sahel for instance, have been more closely
related to domestic supply conditions and regional markets. Should
the price of these local staples also rise, as demand for them
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increases, rising food prices would have a much stronger impact
The Household-Level effects: An encroaching Poverty
 Ivanic and Martin (2008): Increased poverty for a majority of the lowincome countries covered in their sample, mainly due to the negative
impact of higher wheat prices, followed by the prices of rice, dairy
and maize.
 Few cases where higher commodity prices lowered rural
poverty. West and Central Africa. The negative impact of food
prices hike for consumers larger than the positive impact for net
sellers of locally produced foods (Wodon & Zaman 2008).
 An increase of 50% to Price 
– add 4.4 percentage points to the proportion of poor if only the impact on
consumers is taken into account. In countries that are highly dependent
on food imports such as Liberia, 8 additional percentage points with a
50% increase in rice prices.
– Factoring in potential gains for producers, poverty would still increase by
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2.5 percentage points (Quentin Wodon et al 2008).
 88% of the increase in urban poverty depth - gap in
consumption between the average poor household and
the poverty line - is from poor households becoming
poorer and only 12 percent from households falling
into poverty.
 This increase in poverty depth is roughly equivalent to 1
percent of GDP for a typical less developed country
 Of the 60 countries with high malnutrition burdens, 44
countries have experienced negative terms-of-trade
impacts of recent food price changes (World Bank,
2008a). This is likely to result from cuts on food
expenditures that poor households are to make as
coping strategies. These cuts  reduced diet quality and
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increased micronutrient malnutrition
 Liberia Joint High Food Price Assessment (May-June 08): at:
1) households spend more on transport and basic food
commodities and less on higher quality food commodities,
health, education and housing;
2) the proportion of households with poor or borderline consumption
has increased;
3) households consume slightly more staple commodities but
less protein sources, fruits, vegetables and oil;
4) restricted sources of income, indebtedness, weak asset –
such as land - ownership are driving reduced food consumption
– fewer meals a day and more no-meal days, food on credit (
WFP 2008).
Even though high food prices may be a temporary shock, they are here to
stay at a high level and, more importantly, they may have long lasting effects
on physical and mental growth if proper actions are not taken targeting the
most vulnerable groups, and women and children among them.
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Recommendations on The Way Forward
• Making the best of the food crisis by mitigating its negative effects
and seizing the moment to think and act strategically – return to
Long term perspective and to Planning – in a coordinated way at the
national, sub-regional and regional levels.
• Identify the main structural factors that hamper the supplyresponse to the FC. Supply response should be perceived in a
regional as well as national contexts. This require open trade in
staples and reduced transaction costs between neighboring
countries, and strengthening the capacity of the private sector to
respond in medium and long term
• Design and pilot-test on 2-3 countries per sub-region a Conceptual
Framework for the M&E of the sub-regional and regional impact of
the national response-policies. Possible expected results: improved
coherence, better understanding of impacts; strengthening of the42
governance of regional and sub-regional commitments
 Achieving a balance between investments in export oriented
agriculture and locally oriented agriculture in order to: generate
revenues, and to guarantee production not just of grains, but of a
diversity of foods for local consumption. Improving the productivity of
small farmers has a ripple effect that spreads benefits throughout poor
rural communities, and stimulates urban economic activity as well:
market for labour-intensive goods and services from the rural non-farm
sector,
 Strengthening The Links Between Nutrition and Agricultural
development. Indeed, remaining malnourished for more than two
years increases risks of stunting in children. On top of physical growth,
stunting impairs mental potential and becomes an inherited genetic
marker. So, should they remain unabated for the next few years, high
food prices would become a huge toll on Africa’s future. Bringing down
the global food crisis is a moral and a survival imperative. To start
tackling this challenge, the solution resides less on the demand side
but more on the supply sides – i.e. ultimately on the demand side
through income multiplier.
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• Establishing food and nutrition surveillance systems
that can inform decision making at all levels, not just
by central policy makers. Such information can provide
the elements of predictability and accountability that are
required in a human rights based approach to
developing national government responses to the food
price crisis.
• Establishing a Market Information System, including
an Early Warning component on prices and cross-border
flows of Grains vegetables, and oil-fats to inform the
M&E tool.
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THANK YOU
FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION
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