Labor Representation in Governance as an Insurance Mechanism E. Han Kim, Ernst Maug and Christoph Schneider Presentation at the Ackerman Conference on Corporate Governance Bar-Ilan University, 17.12.2012 Motivation Question: What is the impact of labor representation on boards on employment on wages on economic efficiency? Contrasting views Efficient contracting: Labor representation supports efficient insurance contracts Workers receive insurance in exchange for lower wages (e.g., Baily (1974), Harris & Holmstrom (1982) , Holmstrom (1983)) Labor representation prevents ex-post expropriation Rent seeking: Labor representation protects rents of workers and managers Jensen & Meckling (1979), Pagano & Volpin (2005), Cronqvist et al. (2009) Views on Labor Representation The Chicago view: “The campaigns for ‘worker participation’ or ‘industrial democracy’ or codetermination on boards of directors appear to be attempts to control the wealth of stockholders' specialized assets … a wealth confiscation scheme.” (Alchian, 1984) The European view: “Allen and Gale (2002) argue that in incomplete, imperfect markets, a stakeholder system of corporate governance that stresses cooperation between management and employees may allocate resources more efficiently in the long run than a shareholder system.” (Fauver and Fuerst, 2006, p. 674) World Map of Labor Representation on Boards Institutional background Codetermination in Germany Up to 500 employees in Germany: no worker representation More than 500 up to 2000 employees in Germany: 1/3 of the board members have to be worker representatives Board size between 3 and 21 can be chosen (multiple of 3) More than 2000 employees in Germany: 1/2 of the board members have to be worker representatives Casting vote of the chairman (shareholder representative) Board size 12, 16 or 20 (cutoff:s 10,000 and 20,000 employees) Exception in the iron, coal, and steel industry: one neutral member in firms with more than 1000 employees (board size: 11, 15, 21) Research questions What is the impact of parity codetermination on employment: do parity-codetermined firms provide more insurance to workers against adverse shocks? wages: to the extent that the workers in parity-codetermined firms recieve insurance, do they pay an insurance premium? firm risk: are parity-codetermined firms more risky because they provide insurance to their workers? Sample 184 large listed German corporations (1990-2009) All DAX and MDAX companies Most publicly available information (governance, stock market, balance sheet, and P&L data) IAB sample of all German businesses (1975-2008) Detailed establishment level data on industry, location, employment, wages, education, age, (nationality) In total approx. 33.4 million establishment-year observations for period 1990-2008 34,000 establishments matched to 142 of our 184 firms Matching on company and subsidiary names and addresses for the year 2006 (2004, 2005) Research design Compare how negative shocks affect employees and firms with parity codetermination vs. firms with less or no representation on the board Difference-in-difference model: y ijklt = a i + a t + a k + dParity jt + qShock lt + b Parity jt ´ Shock lt + g X ijt + eijklt i indexes establishments j indexes firms k indexes state of location l indexes industry t indexes time Definition of shocks Shock needs to be large enough to have a significant impact frequent enough to permit identification exogenous to the firm We use non-sample firms with establishments in Germany (IAB employment data) Based on >30 million establishment-years Industry defined as 3-digit NACE (subsector), similar to NAICS Shocklt = 1 in industry l if employment in the industry decreases by at least 5% Shocklt = 1 in industry l only if employment growth ≤ 0 in year t+1 (persistence) Shocks: Examples Shocks can be long-lived: 2-year shocks: Shocklt+1 = 1 if Shocklt = 1 and employment growth ≤ 0 in year t+1 4-year shocks: Shocklt+j = 1 if Shocklt = 1 and employment growth ≤ 0 in year t+j for j=1, 2, 3 baseline case t Case A Case B Case C Case D Employment growth Shock (4-year interval) Employment growth Shock (4-year interval) Employment growth Shock (4-year interval) Employment growth Shock (4-year interval) 1 2 3 4 5 -6% -2% 0% 2% -1% 1 1 1 0 0 -10% 2% 0% 2% -1% 0 0 0 0 0 -10% -2% 0% -2% -1% 1 1 1 1 0 -10% -2% 0% -5% -1% 1 1 1 1 0 Distribution of shocks across time 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 years 2000 2001 2002 up to 4 years 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Hypothesis 1 Parity codetermination is a commitment device. With parity codetermination, workers receive full insurance against adverse shocks to employment. Do parity firms protect their employees? Shock × Parity Shock Parity (1) 0.2000 (3.00) -0.1860 (-3.16) -0.1780 (-1.48) LogPlantAge LogSales Leverage LogEmployees LogSales² LogEmployees² adj. R² Observations 0.908 52,756 F-Test: Shock × Parity+Shock=0 0.675 No Yes No Year F.E. Establishment F.E. State F.E. Dependent variable: log number of employees (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.1900 0.1700 0.1630 0.1470 0.1340 (3.03) (3.09) (2.17) (2.37) (1.82) -0.1760 -0.1390 -0.1760 -0.1370 -0.1460 (-3.07) (-2.85) (-2.62) (-2.54) (-2.34) -0.0180 -0.0400 -0.1030 -0.1070 -0.1000 (-0.21) (-0.56) (-0.88) (-1.08) (-0.91) 0.0100 0.1200 0.0080 0.1010 0.0220 (0.40) (4.17) (0.33) (4.05) (0.86) -0.0450 0.1040 -0.1170 0.0110 0.4310 (-1.02) (2.31) (-2.65) (0.29) (1.47) -0.1000 -0.1740 -0.0310 -0.0710 0.0000 (-1.21) (-2.36) (-0.46) (-1.08) (0.00) 0.4450 0.4080 0.5890 (3.74) (3.93) (1.31) -0.0120 (-1.70) -0.0080 (-0.30) 0.913 0.916 0.917 0.919 0.917 51,188 51,188 51,188 51,188 51,188 0.829 No Yes Yes 0.244 Yes Yes Yes 0.729 No Yes Yes 0.729 Yes Yes Yes 0.737 No Yes Yes (7) 0.1380 (2.20) -0.1270 (-2.51) -0.1030 (-1.12) 0.1020 (4.13) 0.1090 (0.34) -0.0670 (-0.79) 0.6490 (1.48) -0.0020 (-0.29) -0.0130 (-0.49) 0.92 51,188 0.714 Yes Yes Yes Do parity firms protect their employees? Employment changes after adverse industry shocks 5% All employees 0% -5% -10% -15% Non-parity Parity Do parity firms protect their employees? Employment changes after adverse industry shocks 5% All employees White collar 0% -5% -10% -15% Non-parity Parity Do parity firms protect their employees? Employment changes after adverse industry shocks 5% All employees White collar Blue collar 0% -5% -10% -15% Non-parity Parity Do parity firms protect their employees? Employment changes after adverse industry shocks 5% All employees White collar Blue collar Unskilled blue collar 0% -5% -10% -15% Non-parity Parity Hypothesis 2 Firms with parity codetermination pay on average lower wages. Do employees pay an insurance premium? Dependent variable Parity LogPlantAge LogSales LogMedianEmpAge adj. R² Observations Year F.E. Industry F.E. Establishment F.E. State F.E. County F.E. Median wage of unskilled employees Median wage of skilled employees Median wage of highly skilled employees (2) -0.0560 (-1.66) -0.0010 (-0.06) 0.0140 (0.80) (3) -0.0570 (-1.69) 0.0000 (-0.04) 0.0140 (0.81) (5) -0.0120 (-0.64) -0.0160 (-1.90) 0.0130 (1.18) (6) -0.0130 (-0.68) -0.0160 (-1.88) 0.0130 (1.17) (8) -0.0310 (-2.03) 0.0020 (0.66) 0.0480 (4.42) (9) -0.0300 (-2.03) 0.0020 (0.74) 0.0480 (4.36) 0.1680 (5.35) 0.812 84,751 Yes No Yes Yes No 0.1660 (5.32) 0.813 84,751 No No Yes No Yes 0.1370 (4.46) 0.894 233,396 Yes No Yes Yes No 0.1380 (4.49) 0.895 233,396 No No Yes No Yes 0.1400 (7.16) 0.832 81,817 Yes No Yes Yes No 0.1400 (7.06) 0.833 81,817 No No Yes No Yes Is there any wage compression? Dependent variable Parity LogPlantAge LogSales LogMedianEmpAge adj. R² Observations Year F.E. Industry F.E. Establishment F.E. State F.E. County F.E. 3rd - 1st quartile wage scaled by median wage of all full-time employees (1) (2) (3) -0.0050 -0.0050 -0.0050 (-0.71) (-0.74) (-0.73) 0.0250 0.0240 (2.56) (2.52) 0.0180 0.0180 (2.18) (2.15) -0.1060 -0.1040 (-4.15) (-4.11) 0.743 0.749 0.75 53,909 53,909 53,909 Yes Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Hypothesis 3 Parity-codetermined firms suffer larger reductions of profitability after adverse shocks than non-parity firms. Performance of codetermined firms (1) Dependent variable: ROA (1) (2) (3) (4) -0.0300 -0.0310 -0.0320 -0.0320 (-2.22) (-2.27) (-2.34) (-2.41) -0.0130 -0.0260 -0.0140 -0.0260 (-1.07) (-2.13) (-1.15) (-2.14) -0.0110 -0.0140 -0.0080 -0.0110 (-1.32) (-1.75) (-0.95) (-1.42) 0.488 1,815 0.501 1,815 0.493 1,815 0.512 1,815 Firm F.E. Yes Yes Yes Yes All linear conrols Yes Yes Yes Yes Squared controls Year F.E. No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes FirmShock × Parity FirmShock Parity adj. R² Observations Performance of codetermined firms (2) (1) FirmShock × Parity Dependent variable: Log TobinsQ (2) (3) (4) -0.1380 -0.1290 -0.1090 -0.0920 (-2.62) (-2.47) (-2.10) (-1.80) -0.0740 -0.1010 -0.0660 -0.0750 (-1.62) (-2.24) (-1.48) (-1.70) Parity 0.0450 0.0340 0.0460 0.0310 adj. R² 0.645 0.666 0.658 0.682 Observations 1,885 1,885 1,885 1,885 Firm F.E. Yes Yes Yes Yes All linear conrols Yes Yes Yes Yes Squared controls No No Yes Yes Year F.E. No Yes No Yes FirmShock Performance of codetermined firms (3) Dependent variable: CAPM Beta (1) (2) (3) (4) 0.2830 0.2120 0.2750 0.2530 (2.13) (1.86) (2.06) (2.21) 0.0140 -0.1270 0.0110 -0.1540 (0.12) (-1.27) (0.09) (-1.54) 0.0740 0.0470 0.0670 0.0330 (1.47) (1.11) (1.32) (0.78) 0.406 1,675 0.58 1,675 0.408 1,675 0.584 1,675 Firm F.E. Yes Yes Yes Yes All linear conrols Yes Yes Yes Yes Squared controls Year F.E. No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes FirmShock × Parity FirmShock Parity adj. R² Observations Conclusion Employees of parity-codetermined firms receive substantially more employment insurance Only skilled blue-collar and white-collar workers benefit Unskilled workers receive no protection Only highly-qualified employees pay an insurance premium Skilled blue-collar employees enjoy insurance without paying a premium Parity-codetermined firms have significantly larger operating leverage Larger declines in ROA and Tobin‘s q, increase in CAPM beta