CLASHING SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT ON “SOCIAL IMPERIALISM” IN WILHELMIAN GERMANY The most powerful Marxist case was argued in the 1960s & ‘70s by FRITZ FISCHER: The “barons of rye and steel” resorted to ever more ambitious schemes for expansion abroad to forestall democratization at home. The “Bielefeld School” inspired by Max Weber (Hans-Ulrich Wehler, Jürgen Kocka) sees the emergence of “antidemocratic pluralism” after 1890. The government floated Imperialist arguments to sway elections, but then saw the Imperialist pressure groups take on a life of their own. Conservative German historians such as Andreas Hillgruber argue that foreign policy decisions resulted from genuine national security concerns. Even they emphasize warped perceptions by German leaders and flaws in Bismarck’s constitution that hampered rational decision-making. France & Russia allied in 1894, but Germany was allied to Austria and Italy The “Schlieffen Plan” vs. “Plan XVII” Many Germans sympathized with the Boer Republics when Britain declared war on them in 1899 The British Army crosses the Zand River on May 10, 1900; 450,000 British troops fought in the Boer War Great Britain and France signed the Entente cordiale in April 1904 to resolve their colonial disputes in Africa After France reached agreement with Spain and Britain that it could occupy Morroco, Chancellor Bülow persuaded the vacationing Kaiser to land his yacht in Tangier in March 1905. IN THE FIRST MOROCCO CRISIS, GERMANY’S PROFESSIONAL DIPLOMATS RESPONDED IN A CLUMSY WAY TO A GENUINE NATIONAL SECURITY PROBLEM Russia had just suffered catastrophic defeat by Japan, and the German general staff urged that this opportunity be seized for a “preventive war” against France. The German Foreign Office judged that France would feel compelled to retreat in Morocco and would learn that its new Entente cordiale with Britain was worthless. It never intended to go to war. Great Britain offered France vigorous support in this crisis, however, as did Spain, Italy, and the USA, so Germany was compelled to accept a French protectorate over the coastal region of Morocco. The H.M.S. Dreadnought, launched in 1906: It carried ten 12-inch guns and cruised at 20 m.p.h. The Anglo-Russian Entente of 1907 nurtured fear of “encirclement” in Berlin Austria-Hungary was Germany’s only reliable ally. Proportion of Germans in Austria: 33%. Proportion of Magyars in Hungary: 54%. AUSTRIA HOODWINKED RUSSIA IN THE BOSNIAN ANNEXATION CRISIS OF 1908 Count Aehrenthal, Austrian Alexander Izvolsky, Russian foreign minister, 1906-12 foreign minister, 1906-10 They met secretly in Moravia on Sep. 16, 1908 The Reichstag debates the political role of the Kaiser during the “Daily Telegraph Affair,” November 1908 The new Chancellor Theobold von Bethmann Hollweg and his predecessor Bülow in 1909. This expert on social policy promoted détente both with Great Britain and the SPD. Bethmann Hollweg believed that real success at raising living standards offered the best hope to influence voters: “German Social Insurance Is an Unparalleled Example for the Whole World” (1913) In 1911 a new health insurance program was organized for whitecollar workers. Weltpolitik and Public Opinion: Imperialist Pressure Groups (see Blackbourn, pp. 321-28) The Pan-German League: founded in 1891, growing to 20,000 members, led by Heinrich Class. The German League for the Eastern Marches (Hakatisten): 220,000 members dedicated to the suppression of Polish culture. The Colonial Society: 40,000 members The Navy League: over 1,000,000 members …The Bülow Government nurtured their growth, but they developed a populist dynamic and formulated their own demands. The Second Morocco Crisis of 1911 revealed the influence of the Imperialist pressure groups In April 1911 the German Foreign Secretary, Alfred von Kiderlen-Wächter, arranged a secret meeting with Heinrich Class of the Pan-German League to urge him to demand a more aggressive foreign policy as the best hope to weaken the SPD in the next Reichstag election. In June 1911 tribal uprisings compelled French troops to occupy Fez in violation of the 1906 accord on the limits of the French protectorate. Bethmann Hollweg was on vacation, but Kiderlen-Wächter approached the Kaiser directly to secure approval for the German occupation of the port of Agadir. SMS Panther, the German gunboat that sailed into Agadir harbor on July 1, 1911. The German press hailed “the Panther’s Leap.” “At last a deed!” one headline declared. The German government alleged that France had excluded German business interests from Morocco, but more German capital was invested in the “French” mining consortium than in the purely German one denied access…. THE SECOND MOROCCO CRISIS RESULTED IN ANOTHER DIPLOMATIC DEFEAT FOR GERMANY After the British government publicly threatened to go to war if Germany attacked France, Germany agreed to give France a free hand in Morocco in exchange for the transfer of some jungle land to German Cameroon. During these negotiations, the new Army Chief of Staff, Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, wrote his wife as follows: “If we again slip away from this affair with our tail between our legs, and if we cannot bring ourselves to put forward a determined claim which we are prepared to force through with the sword, I shall despair of the future of the German Empire. I shall then resign. But before handing in my resignation, I shall move to abolish the Army and to place ourselves under Japanese protectorate; we shall then be in a position to make money without interference and develop into ninnies.” Chancellor Theobold von Bethmann Hollweg (1909-17) Helmuth von Moltke the Younger (1906-14) Bethmann Hollweg firmly rejected Moltke’s argument for “preventive war” Bethmann Hollweg sought a naval arms limitation agreement with Britain, and Lord Richard Haldane arrived in Berlin in February 1912, authorized to propose the following bargain: 1. Fundamental. Naval superiority recognized as essential to Great Britain. Present German naval program and expenditure not to be increased, but if possible retarded and reduced. 2. England sincerely desires not to interfere with German Colonial expansion. To give effect to this she is prepared forthwith to discuss whatever the German aspirations in that direction may be. England will be glad to know that there is a field or special points where she can help Germany. 3. Proposals for reciprocal assurances debarring either power from joining in aggressive designs or combinations against the other would be welcome. BUT ADMIRAL TIRPITZ SECURED THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A MAJOR INCREASE IN GERMAN NAVAL CONSTRUCTION AS HALDANE ARRIVED A genuine international crisis erupted in October 1912 with the First Balkan War. Major victories by Russia’s ally Serbia threatened disaster for Austria…. The atmosphere of crisis enhanced Moltke’s influence (shown here observing the annual army maneuvers with Wilhelm II in 1912), and he and the Kaiser assumed the worst in their “War Council” on December 8, 1912 But Bethmann’s diplomacy SUCCEEDED at the London Ambassadors’ Conference of December 1912, which agreed to create Albania to limit Serbia’s growth. The territorial settlement of the Second Balkan War in 1913, and the grievances of Serb and Rumanian nationalists DIPLOMATIC CRISES IN EUROPE, 1898-1914 1898: German Navy Bill adopted, ostensible based on Tirpitz’s “theory of risk.” 1905: Germany provokes the First Morocco Crisis to disrupt the Entente cordiale (i.e., not for political reasons). 1908: Austria provokes the Bosnian Annexation Crisis. 1911: Germany provokes the Second Morocco Crisis, mostly for political reasons. 1912/13: Fierce debate between the German civil and military authorities, following the Kaiser’s “War Council.” June 1913: Bethmann Hollweg persuades the SPD to support a tax bill to finance army expansion. May 1914: News of an Anglo-Russian naval convention weakens the arguments against “preventive war.” Franz Ferdinand and his wife leave for the hospital to visit their wounded aide, Sarajevo, June 28, 1914 Gavrilo Princip of the “Black Hand” assassinates Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo, Bosnia, on June 28, 1914 THE ARREST OF GAVRILO PRINCIP CHRONOLOGY OF THE JULY CRISIS OF 1914 June 28 Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo July 5/6 Hoyos Mission to Berlin; Germany issues a “blank check” to Austria to attack Serbia July 23 Austrian ultimatum to Serbia July 28 Austria declares war on Serbia July 29 Austria shells Belgrade; Sir Edward Grey threatens British intervention for the first time July 30 Russia orders general mobilization July 31 Germany issues 12-hour ultimatum to Russia Aug 1 Schlieffen Plan implemented THE CENTRAL POWERS VS. THE ALLIES IN WORLD WAR I