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Unit II Module 2
Measuring Public Opinion
AP Gov
Miller
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Objectives
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By the end of this module, SWBAT
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Identify the relationship between public opinion and political
ideology
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Describe the different general types of political issues
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Compare and contrast the different polling instruments used in
America today
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Explain the difference between internal and external validity
errors when polling
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Ideology & Opinion
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Public opinion is a “snapshot” of the current ideological lean
of the American voting population
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Dynamic, constantly shifting depending on
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Domestic events
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Foreign events
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Salient political issues of the day
Elected officials need info regarding opinion to inform future
decisions and receive feedback for past decisions
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Political Polls
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Polls are research instruments designed to measure certain
aspects of public opinion
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Some are broad in their scope but most are geared toward
gathering data regarding certain political issues
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Many different types of organizations conduct polls for
different reasons
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Issue Types
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Salient issues – issues that are timely, current and “trending”
now
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Stable issues – issues that politicians feel comfortable
discussing in detail
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Congruent issues – elected officials feel similarly to their
constituents and act accordingly
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Issue Types
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Examples
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Salient issues –
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Passé issues –
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Stable issues –
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Unstable issues –
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Congruent issues –
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Incongruent issues –
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The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
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“Good” polls have the following characteristics
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Scientific in nature featuring a randomly selected sample
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Proper, unbiased phrasing in questions
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Repeatability, consistency
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Non-biased interpretation of data
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Tracking Polls
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Tracking polls are best examples of “good” polls
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Fit all the good poll categories
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Large randomly selected sample
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Consistent data collected over a long period of time
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Non-biased in language and data interpretation
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Tracking Polls
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Tracking polls are great … but very expensive
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Their high cost prohibits their frequent usage
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More likely to be done by
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Consulting firms (Gallup)
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Media firms (prominent periodicals)
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Universities
Almost never used by candidates or political parties
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The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
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“Bad” polls abound throughout the political landscape
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Can be taken before an election or vote  straw poll
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Or Can be taken after an election or vote  exit poll
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These are used quite often by candidates, parties, and
special interest groups due to lower cost and/or amount of
time/effort needed compared to tracking poll
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Straw Polls
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What’s wrong with them?
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Sample size often too small and/or sample population not
randomly selected
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Language could be biased due to lack of proper editing
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Interpretation could be biased due to a partisan influence (i.e.
straw poll taken by Democrats or Republicans vs. tracking poll
taken by a university)
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Exit Polls
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What’s wrong with them?
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Rely on volunteers to self-report (non scientific due to lack of
random sampling)
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Not conducted by professionals, usually done by campaign
volunteers or interns (errors or bias present)
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Responses subject to Hawthorne Effect – people changing
behavior when they know they are being observed (example:
African American intern conducting an exit poll in Orange
County)
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Why Conduct Straw, Exit Polls?
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Compared to tracking polls they are
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Cheaper
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Quicker to conduct
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Easier to analyze
Need to conduct more of them and “average” the results to
minimize the margin of error and approximate the accuracy
of a tracking poll
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The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
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The “ugly” poll would be the notorious push poll
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Poll only in name, really a cheap campaign stunt
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Straw, exit polls are flawed by circumstance whereas push
polls are malicious and flawed by design
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Push Polls
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Push polls are cleverly designed to infect voters’ minds with
biases against one candidate or position on an issue in favor
of another
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Verbiage, presentation sounds and feels like a poll but it’s
really misinformation
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This phenomenon happens often in US History
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Pro-life (assumes opposition is “pro-death”)
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Anti-federalists (don’t have a position of their own, simply
opposing Federalist ideology)
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No Child Left Behind (opposition to this bill is all about harming
children)
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Push Polls
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Too dirty a tactic more national or gubernatorial candidates
to use publicly
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Could get away with them in smaller state and local
elections, however, with less media scrutiny
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Tactic works best with
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Unstable political issues
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Very close to the date of the election
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Technology Issues
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The media by which the poll is taken can greatly effect
results
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FDR vs. Alf Landon
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Straw polls conducted via telephone provided data that indicated
that Landon would win in a landslide
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Of course FDR crushed him
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What went wrong?
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Technology Issues
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In the 1930s only the elite and middle class has regular
access to home phones
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Therefore, the sample was not representative of the
American electorate
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Results were heavily skewed
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This is an example of an internal validity error – a serious
flaw with the polling instrument itself that can ruin the data it
collects
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Check Yourself
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Researchers must always protect the sanctity of the data –
don’t mess with it and accept it for what it is
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1950s – Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
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First presidential election to be predicted by computer
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Repeated computer analysis indicates that Stevenson is going to
get hammered by Eisenhower
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Researchers still predict that Stevenson was going to win
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Check Yourself
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Researchers were biased, Stevenson was “one of their own” a
preeminent intellectual
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Felt bias in his favor, concluded that computer must be
wrong, even though it was remarkably accurate
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This type of problem is an external validity error –
researcher allows her/his bias to skew interpretation of the
data
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Summary
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Politicians use polls to
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Determine what issues to address and which issues to avoid
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Glean information during Election Day
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Attempt to confuse and infuriate voters for their benefit
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Align themselves with popular trending political concepts
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Summary
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In an ideal world, every poll would be a tracking poll but
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They are too costly and difficult to conduct by non-professionals
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Many politicians see no need for them since public opinion is so
fickle anyway
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Many politicians more concerned with steering public opinion
than determining it
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