Public Opinion and Polling
Unit 2
AP Government
• 4 out of 5 doctors surveyed recommend
Product X.
• If the election were held tomorrow, 43% of all
likely voters would vote for Roberta Jones.
• 85% of all Americans prefer Brand Q over
Brand Y.
• 66% of all parents surveyed think their
children watch too much television.
Public Opinion
• Public Opinion:
Opinions held by citizens which
government takes into account
Who’s the “Public”??
1. Elite
– Disproportionate amount of
political resources.
– Raise issues, help set national
agenda.
– Influence resolution of issues.
2. Attentives:
– Active interest in
government/politics
3. Masses
– Little interest in
government/politics.
Understanding Public Opinion
• Most public shows little
awareness/interest
• Surveys--substantial lack of political
knowledge:
–Identifying political figures
–Identifying key issues
Important Questions to Ponder
• Who is in charge of creating
policy?
• How does Public Opinion
Become Policy?
• How is reliable information
gathered?
• To whom should the
“government” listen to?
How is Public Opinion Measured?
• By elections
– Initiatives (allow citizens to propose legislation and submit to
popular vote.)
– Referendums (allows legislatures to submit proposed
legislation for popular approval.)
– Party positions on issues
• By Polls
– Straw polls
• Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinions
– Scientific polls
• Uses representative sampling methods
Problems with Methods
• Elections
– Not accurate because only voters participate
• Polling
– Straw polls
• No sampling = inaccurate
– Scientific polls
• Most accurate but will have margin of error which can
mislead in close races
• Margin of Error
– A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll
4 Uses of Scientific Polls
•
•
•
•
Inform public.
Inform candidates.
Inform office-holders.
Make election night
predictions.
1st Public Opinion Poll
• July 24, 1824 (For Presidential Election)
• Harrisburg Pennsylvanian issued report of straw vote
done in Wilmington, Del., "without discrimination of
parties."
–
–
–
–
Andrew Jackson received 335 votes
John Quincy Adams, 169 votes
Henry Clay, 19 votes
William H. Crawford, 9 votes
So…Who won in November??
Historical Errors with Straw Polls
•
Literary Digest mailed postcards to potential
voters, predicted every election from 1920 to
1932
• Famously unable to predict 1936 because:
1. Sample drawn from upper class and
wealthy only
2. Bad timing-Mailings went out in early
September
3. Mailings sent back by self-motivated
individuals- “self-selection” rule
Gallup Poll
• Dr. George Gallup
predicted outcome of
1936 presidential
election
• Method: “quota"
sampling
• Gained fame and
method became
prevalent in polling.
Gallup Poll
• Made error in predicting 1948 election
–Prediction: Thomas Dewey would
defeat Harry Truman by 5-15
percentage points
–Truman won by more than 4
percentage points
–Gallup/polling under attack.
“New” Polling Methods
• 1956 election: Gallup
switched to using
random samplings
• Random or probability
sampling occurs when
everyone in
population being
surveyed has an equal
chance to be sampled
• Much more accurate
How is Scientific Poll Created?
• Define “universe” (population to be
measured)
– National polls typically require 1000-2000
respondents.
– Sampling error: Margin of error expressed in +/terms.
• Can reduce sampling error by adding more
respondents
– Take random samples WHERE everyone has equal
chance of being included
• Example: Home Room v AP Government classes
Different Types of Scientific Polls
– Telephone
• Random calls
– In-Person
• Door-to-door, surveys in
malls, shopping centers,
movie theatres, and “man
on the street”
questionnaires
– Exit Polls
• Taken after elections when
voters “exit” the polling
place
– Tracking Polls
• Shows results of an issue
over time
Problems of Polling
– Telephone
• Does not include cell phones
– In-Person
• Who stops in the Mall or opens doors these
days???
– Exit Polls
• Who stops to talk to pollsters after elections?
– Tracking
• Taken out of context they make no more sense than a
single frame from a movie.
Abuses of Polls
• “Horse race” mentality at expense of
issues.
–No real story…just what polls say
• Horse race polls can tell you who’s ahead
but not why.
• Panders to candidates and office-holders.
Push Poll Questions
• Questions deliberately phrased to give information to
public
• Usually negative
– Would you be more or less likely to support Doug Goehring
if you knew he was against ethanol and didn't support
farmers?
– Would you be more or less likely to support Doug Goehring
if you knew he was head of Nodak Mutual when it was
under state investigation and that the state had to take it
over because of his leadership?
Most Famous Push Poll Question
• Voters in SC asked before 2000 Republican
primary:
– "Would you be more likely or less likely to
vote for John McCain for president if you
knew he had fathered an illegitimate black
child?”
– Allegation had no substance, but planted
idea of undisclosed allegations
Newest Push Poll Tactic-
Robo-Call
• Obama campaign released recording (mp3)
• Came from Nevadan's answering machine
• Anonymous robocall criticizing Obama for taking money from
special interests while repeating middle name: "Hussein."
• "I'm calling with some important information about Barack
Hussein Obama………..”
• "Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn't take money from
Washington lobbyists or special interest groups but the record
is clear that he does…..."
• "You just can't take a chance on Barack Hussein Obama.“
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Robocall_trashes_Barack_
Hussein_Obama.html
Prohibiting Unwanted "Robocalls" Took Effect
September 1, 2009
• Federal Trade Commission prohibits prerecorded
commercial telemarketing calls to consumers unless
telemarketer obtained written permission from
consumers who want to receive calls.
• Calls not covered by TSR include:
– Politicians, banks, telephone carriers, and most
charitable organizations
– Certain healthcare messages.
– Telemarketing robocalls to consumers
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barackobama-presidential-job-approval.aspx
Regardless of how you
may have voted in the
past, do you consider
yourself a…
A
B
Democrat
30
27
Republican
27
28
Independent
10
10
9
9
8
9
16
17
Independent, but feel
closer to Democrat
Independent, but feel
closer to Republican
None of these
How often do you usually
vote in presidential
elections?
A
B
Always or Sometimes
82
81
A
B
75
73
A
B
73
71
How often do you usually
vote in statewide
elections?
Always or Sometimes
How often do you usually
vote in local elections?
Always or Sometimes
Are you registered to vote in district
where you live?
A
Yes
82
80
No
18
20
Contributed money to a political
organization during the past 12 months
(HHLD)
A
Yes, Political contributor
9
B
B
8
Is the President Seeking to Connect with
Mainstream America by Choosing Bud Light?
• July 30th, 2009
• White House announced President will be drinking Bud Light at
“Beer Summit.”
– Research firm Scarborough Research shows that Bud Light is beer choice
for politically mainstream Americans.
– Bud Light drinkers (ages 21+) have no distinct political profile.
• As likely as all drinking-age Americans to consider themselves
Democrat, Republican, or Independent, and are average for
voting in presidential, statewide and local elections.
• Bud Light drinkers are also average for being registered to vote.
Regardless of how you
may have voted in the
past, do you consider
yourself a…
Total U.S.
Population
(age 21+,%)
Bud Light
Drinkers*
(age 21+, %)
Democrat
30
27
Republican
27
28
Independent
10
10
9
9
8
9
16
17
Independent, but feel
closer to Democrat
Independent, but feel
closer to Republican
None of these
How often do you usually
vote in presidential
elections?
Always or Sometimes
How often do you usually
vote in statewide
elections?
Always or Sometimes
How often do you usually
vote in local elections?
Always or Sometimes
Total U.S.
Population
(age 21+,%)
Bud Light Drinkers*
(age 21+, %)
82
81
Total U.S.
Population
(age 21+,%)
Bud Light Drinkers*
(age 21+, %)
75
73
Total U.S.
Population
(age 21+,%)
Bud Light Drinkers*
(age 21+, %)
73
71
Total U.S.
Population
(age 21+,%)
Bud Light
Drinkers*
(age 21+,
%)
Yes
82
80
No
18
20
Total U.S.
Population
(age 21+,%)
Bud Light
Drinkers*
(age 21+,
%)
9
8
Are you registered to vote in district
where you live?
Contributed money to a political
organization during the past 12
months (HHLD)
Yes, Political contributor