Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
Systems Architecting and the Political Process
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
University of Southern California
Viterbi School of Engineering
Systems Architecture & Engineering (SAE)
Ken Cureton
February 2015
cureton@usc.edu
Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• WHAT’S NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE?
– LOSS OF CHALLENGER IN 1987 GREATLY
INFLUENCED THE PROGRAM’S FUTURE
– GRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT
SHUTTLE DESIGN WAS AGING
– MORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND
LAUNCH THAN EVER
– LOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED
THE SEARCH FOR COST SAVINGS
– MANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED,
FUNDED, AND THEN CANCELLED
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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SAE 550 LECTURE #5
LAUNCH SYSTEMS (Shuttle, ALS, NLS)
• MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM:
– CONSTELLATION:
NASA AUTHORIZATION
ACT OF 2010
BROUGHT PROGRAM
TO AN END
ON OCTOBER 11, 2010
• CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY
THE U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY
– FINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT: JULY 8, 2011
– RELIANT ON RUSSIANS THEREAFTER
SAE 550 CLASS 05
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY
MEANS USED BY ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO
THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
– BAIKONUR IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR
MANNED MISSIONS TO THE ISS
• MAY 2014: RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE
SUPPORT TO ISS AFTER 2020
• NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIES
– DEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF
RESTORING US TRANSPORT TO ISS BY 2017
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
RUSSIAN “SOYUZ” MANNED
LAUNCH SYSTEM
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
SOYUZ-TM EXTERIOR
CREW RETURN
MODULE
CREW CAPACITY: THREE
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR
Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• CHINA: MANNED SPACE
FLIGHT PLAN
– FIRST MANNED SPACE
VEHICLE: 10/15/2003
– SPACE LABORATORY: 2015
20 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3
– SPACE STATION: 2018+
SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE
• INDIA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE?
• NASA’S $30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM
– 2 COMPANIES: BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA
CORPORATION SPACE SYSTEMS & SPACEX
– POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS
FROM UNITED STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISS
– APRIL 2014:
SPACEX
COMMERCIAL
DRAGON
RESUPPLY SHIP
DOCKS WITH ISS
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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X-38
Excerpt
from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
(B-52 DROP
TO
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
PARAFOIL
LANDING)
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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NASA X-51A "WAVERIDER“
Excerpt
SAEup
550
MAY 27 2010:
~ 200 from
seconds,
to Lecture
~ Mach 5Series:
and ~ 70,000 feet
What’s
Next
for
MannedMach
Space
MAY
3 2013:
240
seconds,
5.1Programs?
at 60,000 feet
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• EUROPEAN SPACE
AGENCY (ESA)
ARIANE 5 LAUNCH
VEHICLE
• UNMANNED-- BUT
COULD BE
EXPANDED
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• RUSSIAN “PROTON”
LAUNCH VEHICLE
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• NEW “ANGARA”
RUSSIAN
MANNED
LAUNCH
VEHICLES
– ANNOUNCED
BY VLADIMIR
PUTIN
JULY OF 2013
• SCHEDULED
FOR 2018-2020
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• CHINESE “LONG
MARCH” 2F VEHICLE
– SHENZHOU
CAPSULE
LAUCHER
• CHINESE “LONG
MARCH” 7 VEHICLE
IN DEVELOPMENT
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• INDIAN “POLAR
SATELLITE LAUNCH
VEHICLE” PSLV
• UNMANNED-- BUT
PROTOTYPE FOR
FUTURE MANNED
BOOSTERS
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE
– IN YOUR PRESENTER’S HUMBLE
(AND EVER SO UNBIASED!) OPINION
– U.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM):
• CONTINUE IN UNMANNED SPACE, BUT WITH INCREASING
FOREIGN COMPETITION
• CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR
UNMANNED SYSTEMS, WITH SOME COMMERCIALIZATION
OF MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT
FUNDING
– CUT-OFF USE of RUSSIAN LAUNCHERS BUT
SPECTER OF COMPETITION FROM ASIAN
COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE RESURGENCE OF
NATIONAL PRIDE
• SOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)
– FACT OF LIFE #3: A STRONG, COHERENT
CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL
• U.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY
WHEN STIMULATED BY FEAR OF FOREIGN
DOMINATION
– OFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIES
OUT OF FEAR
• INCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO
PERCEIVED THREAT OF RUSSIANS AND
CHINESE AFTER 2020
– AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
NO LONGER A HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?
• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)
– FACT OF LIFE #5: BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION
OFTEN NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTION
• POLITICAL “VALUE” OF MANNED SPACE WILL
CHANGE BASED ON TWO FACTORS:
– PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATION
– NEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBS
• NASA FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AERONAUTICS
AND UNMANNED SPACE EXPLORATION
– SOME MANNED SPACE FOR SPACE STATION
SUPPORT
• DOD (AIR FORCE) TO ADD CAPABILITY FOR
MANNED SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONS
– DISPOSABLE “SPACE PLANE” ON TOP OF AN
EXISTING MILITARY BOOSTER
– ALSO CONTINUING EFFORT IN SATELLITES
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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